Twins Select Marek Houston at #16 in the 2025 MLB Draft

[Ruven]

> The Twins have potentially drafted their replacement for Correa. 

If Twins Daily can be trusted the Twins are in need of a replacement at shortstop for Correa yesterday:

 

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

22 minutes ago, OBX 3 6 28 29 34 said:

The so very important factor beyond their projectable skills is the prospect's mental makeup. That includes determination, confidence, desire, and the ability and willingness to learn and overcome failure and adversity. The interview with Culpepper last year showed him exuding confidence and a steely determination which has been instrumental in his progress. The interview with Festa's parents showed their awe in witnessing his determination. I hope these aren't random accidents and that the Twins scouts and decision makers are doing their homework on this so very important factor in our draft picks. Granted, many have exhibited this already to get this far but how strong is it?

I guarantee you they are. Add Walker Jenkins to that list. He has a burning desire to be the best. He has what I call the Jerry Rice factor. Asked late in his career when he felt he had arrived, Rice responded, never.

If a good athlete is also the hardest worker, the pace setter, that's my guy. I go over this constantly with friends and peers, that I love analytics, but the real value to me are those factors. Do they have the fire to keep working after getting paid? Are they coachable? It's why I like the Culpepper, Keaschall and Marek picks. All are similar makeup, that being, guys who work. Non stop. Execute the fundamentals. Play at full speed. 

Maybe this comes from not just playing, but running a business. I'll take the greenhorn with fire over the guy with loads of experience who either thinks he knows it all, and maybe does but he doesn't get after it the right way. Correa and Buxton to me, are examples of super talents with a matching work ethic, who also don't quit. A clubhouse full of these types turn into a team of piranhas that nobody wants to play. We had a group like that 20 years ago 

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, Western SD Fan said:

Since my MSN homepage promotes Puckett's Pond instead of Twins Daily (boo!), I get to see their headlines.  Their headlines actually mirror what I was going to say on this thread.  The Twins have potentially drafted their replacement for Correa.  The timing may be right as there are at least three more years left on Correa's contract and Houston is probably the only true SS in the system that has the defensive chops to match Correa at the moment.  Time will tell as he goes through the minors, but first glance seems encouraging.

I would encourage you to tune in via milb.com and watch Winokur at A+ Cedar Rapids and Kaelen Culpepper at AA Wichita. They are both legitimate shortstops in the process of developing the skills needed to reach MLB in a year or three.

[LyleCole]

11 minutes ago, Ghost of Kirby Puckett said:

I guarantee you they are. Add Walker Jenkins to that list. He has a burning desire to be the best. He has what I call the Jerry Rice factor. Asked late in his career when he felt he had arrived, Rice responded, never.

If a good athlete is also the hardest worker, the pace setter, that's my guy. I go over this constantly with friends and peers, that I love analytics, but the real value to me are those factors. Do they have the fire to keep working after getting paid? Are they coachable? It's why I like the Culpepper, Keaschall and Marek picks. All are similar makeup, that being, guys who work. Non stop. Execute the fundamentals. Play at full speed. 

Maybe this comes from not just playing, but running a business. I'll take the greenhorn with fire over the guy with loads of experience who either thinks he knows it all, and maybe does but he doesn't get after it the right way. Correa and Buxton to me, are examples of super talents with a matching work ethic, who also don't quit. A clubhouse full of these types turn into a team of piranhas that nobody wants to play. We had a group like that 20 years ago 

Yeah, true.  But in the big leagues if you do not have power it is tough to advance.  Pitchers do not have to worry about you being  dangerous.  

I get the 15 home runs (11 at home) last season, but if you look at his Cape Cod wooden bat stats he only had a .329 slugging percentage.   He had 26 hits for Bourne on the Cape, but just 2 doubles as the totality of his extra base power.  An extra base hit percentage of 7.6% is pretty weak contact and while he had 28 walks on the cape and a .465 OBP, advanced professional pitchers are not going to walk him no matter how much plate discipline he has.  

You never know what is going ot happen with these prospects but I think the talk of his high floor is a bit much to tell you the truth.   MLB gave Marek a 50 hit and 45 power but I think they are way overstating it to tell you the truth.  A 35 power is more accurate and I just fear his hit rating just will not transfer to higher levels of pitching he will see in professional baseball.  I think his floor is a poor man's Mark Belanger.

I hope I am wrong and other hitters, Dozier being the best example, have developed pull side power as they matured.  WHile I think some of the claims on his defense are a bit overstated too, I hope he can develop into a guy with a decent OBP and a solid MLB level shortstop in the field.

 

[Ghost of Kirby Puckett]

11 minutes ago, LyleCole said:

advanced professional pitchers are not going to walk him no matter how much plate discipline he has.  

 

I've seen a lot of advanced professional pitchers walk batters, myself included, against countless hitters with discipline. Strange statement.

[twinstalker]

4 hours ago, LyleCole said:

Interesting selection to me since they drafted Culpepper, Debarge and Amick in the 2024 draft and Keaschall and Winokur (who they continue at SS) in the 2023 draft.

Houston is probably the one true SS in that group, but it is an fully cluttred infield group in the minors now.

LOL.  It doesn't matter how much you say it or how logical it is...

[twinstalker]

4 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Apparently Irish was filmed, drunk, saying derogatory things....

I got it and laughed.

[twinstalker]

3 hours ago, Ghost of Kirby Puckett said:

I've seen a lot of advanced professional pitchers walk batters, myself included, against countless hitters with discipline. Strange statement.

He's saying Houston doesn't have enough power for pitchers to be careful with.  It's not all about HR power, so we'll see.  He very well may be right, could possibly be wrong.

Houston's scariest line item is his isolated power of .023 at the Cape Cod league.  That's a serious problem indicated.  College stats are very difficult to interpret, but CCBL stats are very helpful in any projection, mostly because it's better competition with wood bats.

Frankly, in college, his college K rate is too high for someone with no power, and that's difficult to say about anyone with only a 15.4% K rate.  It reminds of HSer Noah Miller.  This is a bad pick, I think, and will depend on whether he swings in the zone, makes contact in the zone, and what his exit velocities are.  These are unknowns that if they resolve in positive directions, I'd change my opinion.

For all my doubts about Culpepper last year, I never said that (bad pick) about him, even though I did question it and preferred someone else.  I did say it about DeBarge and Amick and the first three picks as a package.  I think I'm saying it about Houston.  I just don't see a path to being a starting player, except for the unknowns, which you have to see for any first rounder, much more so for the 16th pick in a good draft.

For what it's worth, my pick (Witherspoon) was sniped by the Red Sox but I would have taken HS SS Cunningham or Auburn C/OF Irish or maybe HS SS (3B) Neyens.

Keith Law, though, thinks he'll be a starter

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6490241/2025/07/14/mlb-draft-2025-day-1-picks-results-analysis/

Pick 16: Minnesota Twins — Marek Houston, SS, Wake Forest

Live blog analysis: Marek Houston is one of the safest picks in the draft, as he’s definitely a shortstop and seems extremely likely to hit enough to at least be a regular for someone in the majors. He started to hit the ball a little harder this year, although his career-high 15 homers were aided more than a little bit by Wake Forest’s Manhattan studio apartment-sized ballpark. He hit for average and a ridiculous .465 OBP on the Cape last summer as well, a very positive sign since that came with the wood bat. I don’t see a star here, but I do see an everyday player.

(my edit: Law should be ashamed of himself.  That .465 means nothing.  What's important is he hit .306 with a mere two doubles of powers to yield a slug of .329, and even that's influenced by batted ball data)

Keith Law scouting report: Houston is a no-doubt shortstop who’s boosted his performance and some of his batted-ball characteristics just enough to give him a chance to get into the top 10 in a draft class that’s weak up top. He set career bests in homers and steals this year while playing plus defense once again. The power is kind of an illusion, as Wake Forest plays in a shoebox, and 11 of Houston’s 15 homers this year came at home, mostly wall-scrapers that would be doubles or outs in a typical ballpark. He does have very strong hand-eye coordination and almost never whiffs on pitches in the zone, with a short swing that had him over a 50 percent groundball rate as a sophomore but down to 44 percent this year. He’s a high-floor, lower-ceiling prospect, unless someone foresees more power in his future than I do. He is a definite shortstop who hits the ball hard enough to keep his average up against good pitching, but probably doesn’t get above 10-12 homers a year.

(my edit:  the biggest part of this is that Law says Houston "hits the ball hard enough."  That's the main question.)

[cmoss84]

Dansby Swanson comp?

[Patzky]

10 hours ago, whosafraidofluigirussolo said:

Sounds like some see Irish as an OF (as mentioned above) but the Os also just took another catcher, Bodine

Adley on the block?

[David HK]

Sooo... Mark Belanger, then? 🤔

[Jamie Cameron]

Throwing some Houston data in the mix that I think does a good job of capturing the solid overall offensive profile. Here are his percentiles in D1 baseball in 2025 (this isn't perfect because not all ballparks leverage the same tracking, or have it at all).

xWOBA - 71st
xBA - 70th
AvgEV - 66th
Chase% - 72nd
Whiff% - 78th
Z-Con% - 87th
K% - 69th
BB% - 86th

Not a ton of power, but everything else is real solid.

[Trov]

You cannot have too many SS.  He is expected to be able to stay there, but if his bat is not great, worst case, he should be a guy that can backup and be a utility guy. Unless he just takes off with the bat, he will be like a 3 to 4 year minor league guy and will be on timeline to fill in when CC and Lewis are done here. 

[madtowntwin]

13 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

From Keith law

I don't see a star here, but I do see an everyday player.

And, that would be a good outcome from that late a pick. 

Hmmmm...Don't Stars emerge once they make the big leagues and become everyday players??

[jmlease1]

Considering power is one of the easier things to add to a player's hitting profile and bat to ball skills are one of the harder ones, I see the logic in making this pick, especially since Houston is seen as someone who will be a quality SS when most of the time the evaluators are predicting every college SS that's drafted will "have to move off the position".

Seeing how much the Twins have struggled to find a consistent SS over the past 30 years and have rarely developed one internally that can stick for more than a couple of seasons, I'm not going to complain about having a top glove in the system with some hitting skills. We'll see if he turns out to be more than Noah Miller (who is a fine glove and can't hit) in a couple of seasons; if he can develop some doubles pop then he'll become more exciting. Floor is high, ceiling is questionable?

His development will be interesting. Overall, I have faith in the Twins draft process, so I'm not going to bag on Houston. Let's see what he's got.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Trov said:

You cannot have too many SS.  He is expected to be able to stay there, but if his bat is not great, worst case, he should be a guy that can backup and be a utility guy. Unless he just takes off with the bat, he will be like a 3 to 4 year minor league guy and will be on timeline to fill in when CC and Lewis are done here. 

If he's a 3 to 4 year minor league guy, we don't want him taking over for CC. College players who take 3 to 4 years to graduate from the minors are not guys you want as your everyday SS in the majors. If he's going to surpass Culpepper as the likely next everyday SS for the Minnesota Twins he's going to need to be here in 2027. Like Lee was here in 2024 after being drafted in 2022 and Culpepper is on pace to be here in 2026 (if not a cup of coffee in 2025) after being drafted in 2024. 

[alskntwnsfn]

FWIW, I really like this Marek Houston pick. He looks like he can be a true MLB SS, and I like his swing which looks capable of producing hard contact from line to line. Seems to have some "it" factor to him too. Not expecting a perennial All-Star, but I think we'll happy to have Marek in a Twins uniform in a couple years. 

[LyleCole]

19 hours ago, Ghost of Kirby Puckett said:

I've seen a lot of advanced professional pitchers walk batters, myself included, against countless hitters with discipline. Strange statement.

Professional pitchers are just going to throw fastball strikes against him because he can't do much damage to them.