Could Minnesota Twins and Philadelphia Phillies Align on Blockbuster Bullpen Trade?

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Always maximize the talent in return. If they want to compete next season, they can trade prospects for MLB talent in the offseason. Having better prospects to trade will help them more in the long and short run.

Twins always say during the draft, "get the best player no matter the need, we can trade those prospects for our needs". That's nice but they never trade these prospects no matter how redundant they are. 2 yrs ago. I stated that Gonzalas was terribly overrated & needed to be traded immediately for needs. Never happened & his stock plummeted. Don't count on Falvey to trade any prospect we may obtain this deadline.

[TwinsDr2021]

47 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

I think they've done okay at selling at the deadline. Cruz for Ryan is one of the best trades the franchise has ever made.

There are 27 games between now and July 30. How many wins do they need to avoid selling? Getting to .500 requires 15-12. A losing record in July should be an obvious sell as they would be 4 games under .500 and probably 8th in the Wild Card standings like they are right now.

<= 13 wins: sell

14-16 wins: ???

>=17 wins: buy

They get the Tigers, Cubs, Dodgers and Rays as well as the Marlins, Pirates and Rockies. What's the over-under?

Like I said they have been pretty good at evaluating other teams, Ryan, Maeda, Lopez,  Odo, Duran and even Alcala to a point. Martin and SWR weren't horrible either. Bader, Santana, France are some others (they haven't been bad at finding guys to play in the majors either, but they haven't been good at finding everyday/core players. and I don't trust them to do that because that is part of the total rebuild.

I think there is talent here to stay on the outskirts of the wild card as well, so my guess is over 10 under 15. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Tait is 18 going on 19 (August) he is minimum three years out and probably closer to 5 for being a legit MLB catcher. I am not saying I wouldn't like him in the Twins minor leagues, but he isn't a guy I am trading 2+ years of Jax or Duran for. 

I want Miller who is 21 in AA or Crawford who 21 going on 22 in AAA. Guys with legit shots at playing in the majors relativity soon. 

I'm not sure where I said I'd deal either of those for him? I said they needed someone like him in the system. I'm also not sure he's 5 years out, but we have no real idea on that, imo.

I'd also want one of the two you mention for Duran or Jax....but I can't see getting a AAA player who can play this year for him? Maybe? They also need Larnach or Wallner, both of which are worth way more than one AAA guy. I'd think this is an org that a multi player deal can be done with.

I also think the Twins will stand pat and do nearly nothing. 

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

Twins always say during the draft, "get the best player no matter the need, we can trade those prospects for our needs". That's nice but they never trade these prospects no matter how redundant they are. 2 yrs ago. I stated that Gonzalas was terribly overrated & needed to be traded immediately for needs. Never happened & his stock plummeted. Don't count on Falvey to trade any prospect we may obtain this deadline.

Besides for Mahle,, and others? They totally trade prospects all the time. If you think GG is bad, I don't know what to say at this point.....

[TwinsDr2021]

18 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not sure where I said I'd deal either of those for him? I said they needed someone like him in the system. I'm also not sure he's 5 years out, but we have no real idea on that, imo.

I'd also want one of the two you mention for Duran or Jax....but I can't see getting a AAA player who can play this year for him? Maybe? They also need Larnach or Wallner, both of which are worth way more than one AAA guy. I'd think this is an org that a multi player deal can be done with.

I also think the Twins will stand pat and do nearly nothing. 

I don't think Philly would trade Larnach for Crawford, a 21 year old doing well in AAA, IMO is worth more than Larnach, (Its not like Crawford is 24, 25 or 26 doing what he supposed to be doing in AAA) With where the Twins are I would trade Wallner for him, but I understand if others wouldn't and not sure Philly would either unless we threw in one another highly thought of prospect. If I am the in the FO, I am probably not trading Wallner unless the trade is obviously so one sided I couldn't say no. Like Abel and Miller or Crawford. I would be looking for two major league type players for him. '

Larnach starts to get expensive next year and the Twins are going to be in a similar position the Tigers were with Castro, is he worth the price and what is the price to replace him. Other teams also know this so I would think they would offer less as opposed to Wallner who should be pretty cheap for the next two years and doesn't get costly until he is 30. 

[bjorks]

The FO would need to have identified a potential closer of the future (Jax, Varland) before trading Duran, but I'm not sure Miller (MLB #21) would be available even if it was a SU trade. Dante Nori (OF) and Griffin Burkholder (OF) are 2 young OF's with similar profiles and upside as Crawford. If you can get a Top 50 prospect back it's an easy move to make for someone like Miller. I just don't think you trade from a place of strength (RP) if it's not an overwhelming offer back.

 

[Blyleven2011]

If the twins trade a valuable closer like Duran at the deadline  , the twins should want a high value in return ...

Prospects are nice  , how well are the  Phillies  minors  stocked , they like the Yankees trade away Prospects for players to play now in the mlb , so do they have any top 100 prospects  , top 100 prospects  I guess would be the ones I would consider  for a closer like Duran  , and not one for one , get a package of good talent , no fringe players ...

No trading Jax as he would fill Duran position  ...

We have expiring contracts like Allstar Castro that has some higher value  and could find a prospect from AAA that is close to playing at end of season or next year ..

The first base position is still a revolving door , did you know the most MVP's that are given out belong to first baseman .....

Position of needs is a catcher and first baseman , we fill the rest of the positions OK but if they can upgrade that's fine too ...

 

 

[DJL44]

45 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I stated that Gonzalas was terribly overrated & needed to be traded immediately for needs. Never happened & his stock plummeted. 

They held him another year and now his stock has risen back to where it was at the time of the trade. Are you mad at the front office because they didn't sell low?

[Mike Sixel]

The Mets are another good contender (pun!) to trade with.....Fangraphs list up today, btw.

[Doctor Gast]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

They held him another year and now his stock has risen back to where it was at the time of the trade. Are you mad at the front office because they didn't sell low?

I've always advocated to sell high (never low). Although GG should never make the Twins. It still never pays to sell low.

GG was hyped up as a power-hitter, & his trade stock was too high & could have gotten us a much-needed impact player. Shortly after that his stock crashed & became worthless. His stock has risen slightly but very far from where he was. You could possibly get a poor lotto ticket for him but why waste your time?

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins can fit Duran into the budget next year without any issues. They should be trying to sign him to a 3-year contract, not trading him away.

Coulombe is a pending free agent. If they're under .500, he needs to be dealt.

Brock Stewart is very good, but also injury-prone and in his mid-30s. He's a guy I would be looking to sell at the deadline. His stuff is good enough and his salary low enough that several teams should be interested. He has enough team control remaining that they could get a real return.

Agreed. Trading Jax and Duran for prospects, not matter how good, when each has 2+ years of control left only makes sense if you don't intend to compete for the next 3 years. Otherwise, you're trading away one of the hardest things to find and knee capping the 2026 and 2027 teams. I'm more optimistic than that. I would only even think about trading either for controllable MLB starting pitching that can be in the rotation from 2025-2027 and then make Varland the closer.  Seems pretty unlikely.  

OTOH, if we do fall out of contention I would explore the market for Coulombe and Stewart. I know we don't have great replacements, so trading either is a bit of a white flag move. I wouldn't trade them if we are 5 games or more over .500 in late July with Matthews and Lopez coming back. If not, I would at least explore the market unless we are convinced they will be back next year.  They might be worth a high ceiling A+ ball or a solid AA type prospect. 

[jorgenswest]

For comparison here is Fangraphs take as well as their projected future value.

Aiden Miller(55) - above average regular

Justin Crawford(40+) - bench player/platoon player(+)

Eduardo Tait(45) - Low end regular/platoon

Mick Abel(40) - Backend starter approximate FIP of 5.00

Moises Chace(50) - Number 4 starter approximate FIP of 4.00

i would recommend ignoring numeric team ranks and looking to future value. A number 4 on one team can be very different from a number 4 on another.

I would not be interested in moving Duran or Jax and their remaining control for players that have a future value of platoon/low end or back end starter.

[TwinsDr2021]

8 minutes ago, jorgenswest said:

For comparison here is Fangraphs take as well as their projected future value.

Aiden Miller(55) - above average regular

Justin Crawford(40+) - bench player/platoon player(+)

Eduardo Tait(45) - Low end regular/platoon

Mick Abel(40) - Backend starter approximate FIP of 5.00

Moises Chace(50) - Number 4 starter approximate FIP of 4.00

i would recommend ignoring numeric team ranks and looking to future value. A number 4 on one team can be very different from a number 4 on another.

I would not be interested in moving Duran or Jax and their remaining control for almost all of the prospects in the Phillies system.

If that is what Fangraphs thinks of those guys, I hate to see what they think of the Twins prospects that are either older in the league or younger and down a few leagues. 

(The Twins have three guys in AAA less than age 23 (Erod, Keashcall and Raya) and only 5 guys in AA (Jenkins, Gonzalez, Salas, Rosario and Culpepper) 

I think most of us think or hope most if not all of them will be more than a bench/platoon player. 

 

 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, BrokenCompass said:

My thoughts: who cares who the closer is when you're not competitive? 

If the Twins are going to lose 90 games, which it looks like they are, what do you even need a closer for? Just go by committee and take your lumps. 

Deal Duran AND Jax - get as much as you can for each. The Twins are going to be sellers and need to commit to selling. This is a total rebuild situation. The only untouchables are Joe Ryan and Royce Lewis - the latter only because his value is at an all-time low and the return just wouldn't be worth it. 

Yesterday was game 81 with a 39 and 42 record exactly half way. With the highest highs, and lowest lows, this team is currently pacing 78 and 84.

They would have to go 33 and 48 rest of season to get to 90 losses. Not impossible, by any stretch, but I really do think this team, could just as likely be an 82 game winner as a 90 game loser. Were they to sell, of course the 90 game loser becomes more likely.

[Mike Sixel]

16 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If that is what Fangraphs thinks of those guys, I hate to see what they think of the Twins prospects that are either older in the league or younger and down a few leagues. 

(The Twins have three guys in AAA less than age 23 (Erod, Keashcall and Raya) and only 5 guys in AA (Jenkins, Gonzalez, Salas, Rosario and Culpepper) 

I think most of us think or hope most if not all of them will be more than a bench/platoon player. 

 

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/minnesota-twins-top-43-prospects/

 

[Thebigalguy]

I think it's premature to think about such a trade. The team has a month to show they can scratch and claw their way to the playoffs as a wild card team. If they do decide to sell, I see no reason for them to give up the best they have. The team's problem has been getting into the seventh inning with a lead. Once there, Jax and Duran and Varland are usually top notch. The haul for such a trade would have to be awesome for me to sign off on it. 

[Major League Ready]

3 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Besides for Mahle,, and others? They totally trade prospects all the time. If you think GG is bad, I don't know what to say at this point.....

Right there with you, Mike. Apparently a 21 y/o old with a 929 OPS in AA is bad.  Who knows, he could tank again but right now he looks like he is going to move up considerable in our prospect rankings.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/minnesota-twins-top-43-prospects/

 

Thanks Mike.

Do the Phillies have a summer update?

Is it also reasonable to say a number 14 in the Twins organization would be similar to a number 6 in the Phillies organization?

[Linus]

2 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/minnesota-twins-top-43-prospects/

 

Thanks. That was interesting. Surprised to see a 45 grade on Hill and K Culpepper. 

[Peter]

Not happening 

[David Maro]

This is laughable to trade pitching when you look around the league. It seems everyday another pitcher is out needing TJ surgery. If they have pitching to trade why are they getting pitching off waivers. How about moving on from a Miranda and Julien. If and when Lewis comes back Lee doesn't have a everyday position to play. If you watch him play he is best suited at SS and 3rd. He looks uncomfortable at 2nd and doesn't have the range. 

[twinstalker]

I'd give Duran and EmRod for Aidan Miller, easily.  Maybe get an arm back that will be a future reliever.  Kill a lot of birds with that stone.

[dxpavelka]

On 6/27/2025 at 9:04 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

I agree.  I'm dealing Duran and making Jax our closer for the rest of this season.  Duran is exactly what the Phillies need at this time and the prospects listed are interesting.  I'd like a little more detail on the prospects, especially the young catcher, Tait.  How many years is he from being a big leaguer?  What level is he currently playing at?  

Despite how bad they've been, the Twins are remarkably very much in the Wild Card mix.  I don't think this team, with all the flaws it has, is anywhere near a threat to any of the better teams in the A.L.  But last year, the Tigers traded Flaherty to the Dodgers, STILL made the playoffs and made a little noise.

I have no expectations for the Twins to make the post season, or do anything noteworthy if they somehow do.  But the notion that they can't compete if they deal Duran or Castro or Bader etc...is false.  The Tigers proved that last year.

If the Twins were to somehow bumble their way into the playoffs I would consider it a bonus.  But they should be actively looking to sell some players who could bring a nice return and hopefully restock some talent in the system with the plan being a better balanced roster in 2026 and 2027.  

What IS Royce Lewis's long term position with the Twins?  Should they just give him a 1B mitt and hope to hide him there while maximizing his offense?  Is it time to move on from Lewis?  Not at the trade deadline, but in the off season, in the hopes that his value will rise with positive reports on his health (you know, Royce is in the best shape of his LIFE !!!).  

Some really big decisions need to be made in the coming months.  Will the Pohlad's and Falvey be making them?  Or someone else?  

Give him the 1B glove and don't think about moving him.  Until 5 years later when you take the glove away and make him the full-time DH.