A Breakthrough Second Half Is Still on the Table for the Minnesota Twins

[Nick Nelson]

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

As the Minnesota Twins rattled off 13 straight wins in May, rising from fourth to second place in the Central and closing the gap behind the Tigers to four games, there was a lot of cause for positivity and excitement. The roster was relatively healthy, and Minnesota had a formula for overcoming opponents — driven by elite pitching — that felt pretty infallible. As long as they could stay healthy.

Ahhh, well. We've been on this ride long enough to know what was coming next, but it was fun to dream. The Twins improved to a season-high seven games above .500, at 34-27, after beating the Athletics on June 4th. Around that time, things began to customarily fall apart. 

Pablo López went down with a devastating shoulder injury that will knock him out of action until the late stretch of the season. Days later, Zebby Matthews was sidelined by his own fairly significant shoulder strain. Two of the rotation's most electric arms, gone in a blink.

More recently, the Twins lost Royce Lewis to yet another hamstring injury, and the timing stung because Royce was finally showing signs of life at the plate with a .990 OPS in June. There's no timeline for his return but it feels safe to assume he'll miss at least a month.

Beyond the injuries, remaining key players are letting this team down in a big way. Bailey Ober, ostensibly healthy, has lost his dominant edge and finds himself searching for answers. Chris Paddack got shelled in his most recent start. And most disturbingly, Carlos Correa is showing the worst offensive form of his entire career at age 30. 

 

The team faces very tough sledding ahead. Their schedule for the rest of June is challenging: four series, all against winning teams, including the division-leading Tigers to close out the month. The Twins have lost eight of 10 and they're entering this midseason gauntlet without several of their highest-impact players. If we're being realistic, it's hard to envision the team having much success in the weeks leading up the All-Star break. 

But for now, the goal is not resounding success — merely to tread water. Minnesota needs to stay afloat and remain relevant until the second half gets underway, because there is palpable reason for hope of major improvement on the horizon. 

None of the aforementioned injuries are believed to be season-ending. Lewis's hamstring strain was deemed mild and he could return around the All-Star break if not sooner. The Twins have said they expect López to pitch "meaningful innings" in the regular season, setting himself up to once again be a potential postseason force. The timeline for Matthews is a bit more ambiguous but even on the longer end, he should be back with plenty of time left. There's also a guy by the name of Luke Keaschall — remember him? — who should be back from a forearm fracture sometime around the break next month.

Get these guys back into the mix and you're in business. The Twins didn't win 13 in a row by accident. Certainly some of the trends we've been seeing with currently healthy (or "healthy") players are troubling, but slumps come and go in a long MLB season. There's nothing to say Ober and Correa won't look like different players in a month or two.

None of this takes away from the fact that the Twins are currently in a bad spot. They've been sinking and in all honesty they are probably about to sink further. They're going to need to find the wins where they can and weather the storm while waiting for brighter days ahead in the second half. Still, as long as this Twins team can avoid getting flooded out of contention in a densely packed middle tier in the American League, it'll be hard to lose faith in their ultimate outlook.

Just hang on for now boys.

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[Cory Engelhardt]

Came here because I am an optimist by choice. But getting Keaschall back SHOULD help the offense right?

Also unrelated; Walker Jenkins is finally back to AA Wichita. Not saying that for this season necessarily, but that is another point to add on the optimism side.

Generally though, they have to have a good rest of June. At least like you said, tread water. IF that is the case, then that's a good thing. I hope they can.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

The second-half run is theoretically possible, albeit without SP1 Lopez. The bigger problem is going to be the 8-10 games they drop in the standings until everyone comes back. With the shaky offense and the SP not looking great lately, treading water feels like a pipe dream.

[Parfigliano]

At best they will be 4 games under .500 at the end of June.  More likely 6 games under.

[Western SD Fan]

If you were going to tell me that the reinforcements coming off of injury were a week or two away, I would be much more optimistic.  The fact that the quickest we can expect anyone coming back is at least a month away is much more problematic.  The next 25 games up to the All-Star Break has a SOS of .519.  Seems doable to try to tread water.  The last 24 games we have just played (Cleveland rainout series to now), we are 10-14 and that has been against a SOS of .501.  That gives me some pause as we are hoping to tread water against better competition than we have just finished playing and not performing very well with injuries piling up.  Considering we are also depending on Keashall, who, in my memory, has yet to come back from an injury of this kind in his young career, and Lewis, who has just seemed lost this year, to jump right back in and produce at a pace that will be beneficial to the team.  I can see this team finally coming back into form closer to Labor Day and being that hot and hungry team that nobody wants to play down the stretch.  I fear that we will be too far out by that time to make any kind of playoff push and the FO will likely stand pat or do a soft sell by the trade deadline.

[gmwannabe]

Would the Brewers accept Paddock, E-Rod, and Raya for Freddy Peralta?

[Craig Arko]

Buxton and Correa are really the keys to staying in contention. It’s possible, but I would not bet the farm.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I've been around baseball in general and the Twins in specific to say "why not?!"  It's certainly a long ways from a sure thing, but my optimism runs deep.  I lived through some pretty ugly decades of Twins baseball and this team has a lot more going on than many of those did.  Health is always a question mark, but the pitching staff is a long ways from washed up (Happ & Shoemaker anyone?) and hitting is a weird thing - guys could break out unexpectedly without warning at any moment.  

I'm still saying they will win in the mid-upper 80's and make the playoffs.  A record like that doesn't come from a team with perfect luck and perfect health.  Then, when you make the playoffs, anything can happen, and for those of us who have been around awhile know that for a fact. 

[Blyleven2011]

The twins are sinking and I don't see the pumps capable to keep the ship afloat  , we don't win enough games against teams with a better record ...

One run losses out weigh the one run wins , we have to switch that course  , our pitching is good our offense is not consistent  , they had a game last week and had 17 strikeouts out of 27 outs , that and 5 hits a game aren't going to win many games unless your the Houston Astros  ...

[USAFChief]

They're a sub.500 team over the past year.

This isn't "stuggling." This is water at its own level. 

 

[DocBauer]

Like others, I am an optimist and refuse to stop being one. Right NOW, they are an average team with potential. I just don't know if they CAN maintain until the break. I sure hope they can!

Correa was great before he missed time last season, and was great when he came back. I simply refuse to believe such a well conditioned, smart player is suddenly losing his bat at 30yo! I fully expect him to have a strong 2nd half, I just hope his 2nd half starts soon. We also need Wallner and Jeffers to get hot again soon. IF Lewis's latest injury is truly mild, he should be back in July. He was starting to look like his old self before this injury. Very possible he has a strong 2nd half as well. 

On the youth side, Keaschall will be back in July as well. He won't be the Superman he was in his debut, but hes a well rounded and high quality player who appears ready for MLB. He doesn't have to be as good as he was in his debut to make a difference. I'm NOT betting on it, but what if E Rodriguez comes back fairly soon and gets hot, like he was flashing before his latest setback? Could he MAYBE bring a spark to the lineup the way Wallner did in 2023? What if Eeles keeps raking and producing at St Paul and his "pop" suddenly comes back? Could he bring a spark along WITH Keaschall for the 2nd half?

While there's some "IF's" in there, most of what I stated is pretty practical.

Unfortunately, the problem may be the pitching injuries. 

No Lopez until August is a problem.

Stubborn or real, Ober insists a sore hip isn't his problem, it's mechanics. Can he just maintain solid starts with his secondary stuff and smarts, and straighten out his mechanics to be at least solid with a sore hip? I'm not betting against Paddack RIGHT NOW after only the 2nd poor start of his season. I doubt his total IP for the SEASON, but considering how well he's been tossing, I'm not losing faith after only his 2nd bad start.

I have a lot of belief in Festa, basically a rookie. The Festa who threw so well in 2024 after a poor couple early appearances is the REAL Festa, IMO. Personally, I'm throwing away the start against the A's because of weird circumstances. I'm betting on the 2024 and early 2025 version and him growing and getting better as he gains experience. Again, he's basically a talented rookie settling in. As of TODAY, with what little we know, Matthews might not be out long. That helps. But in the meantime, we need SWR to be the solid 2024 version of himself that was solid and growing before running out of steam at the end. 

With a talented "rookie" in the rotation, and another talented "rookie" hopefully back in about a month, it's imperative that Sim takes a step forward. 

But with Lopez out, and Ober not quite right...hopefully that's all...the 8th man in the pen is going to be interesting. I'm expecting no initial greatness from Adams, but he provides a really interesting option to be a middle man bridge to help eat innings and keep the Twins in games without over using the rest of a good pen. The problem is he's the only other 40 man option other than Raya who has options and can be sent down if we need to re-load that 8th spot for a few days. Do we play the DFA game with McCaugan, Dobnak, Wentz, and Tonkin? Or do they make room for someone like Morris...promoted too early but get his feet wet...in order to play the up and down game for that 8th spot?

It changes a LOT if Matthew's injury is mild and he's back soon. But for NOW, that 8th spot suddenly becomes important.

ONE RUN games are killing the Twins record due to the offense, not the pen or rotation. And while there are real possibilities for the offense to be better and rise to top 15, maybe even top 10 status in regard to runs scored, I'm worried about the rotation even though I believe in Festa and have SOME belief in SWR.

The Twins MIGHT have a pitching issue between Ober not being himself and Lopez out, along with Matthews. But Festa is as good or better a prospect than Matthews. Let's just bet Ober guts it out and figures it out, and SWR continues to mature and pitch like he did most of 2024. That's the ideal result. 

I worry about how one of the best and deepest rotations in all of MLB are suddenly being tested. But my greatest concern is blown opportunities to win games by an inconsistent offense that has too much talent to be so far below average.

Even with questions and worry about the rotation, I STILL believe an uptick in the player roster providing better production can lead the team to a better than .500 record, 85-90 wins. But it only happens if they take a step or two forward. The bite is, they ARE capable of being better than they have been. But once again, NO CONSISTENCY. 

[RpR]

A Breakthrough Second Half Is Still on the Table for the Minnesota Twins

But then comes the traditional Sept. SNAFU.

[Mike Sixel]

6 hours ago, gmwannabe said:

Would the Brewers accept Paddock, E-Rod, and Raya for Freddy Peralta?

Wut? Why would the Twins do this? 1.5 years of control?

[terrydactyls]

Captain Rocco!!!  I see a giant iceberg heading toward your ship.  Too bad the ship owners didn't put enough lifeboats on board.  You can only save youself and your coaching staff,

[Doctor Wu]

Well, a healthy roster would help immensely. I'm also wondering when Correa is going to snap out the doldrums and show us the player he's been in the past. I'm an optimist by nature too, but I'm starting to have real doubts about this team's ability to contend this season. I don't see any easy fixes other than sustainable top performance and health. But can this team achieve that?