Blue Jays 6, Twins 4: Middle-Inning Malaise Flips Script in Minnesota

[Matt Braun]

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images

Box Score
Bailey Ober: 7 IP, 5 H, 5 ER, 1 BB, 4 K
Home Runs: Trevor Larnach (10)
Bottom 3 WPA: Bailey Ober (-.283), Harrison Bader (-.147), Kody Clemens (-.141)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Early results favored Minnesota. Trevor Larnach found a 2-0 fastball to his liking and obliterated the pitch 421 feet out to right center to start the scoring. He made the great right-center wall look tiny.

The next frame, Brooks Lee singled sharply and Royce Lewis blasted a double into left-center to place two men in scoring position. Kody Clemens grounded out productively. Christian Vázquez smoked a run-scoring double. The Twins' offense was moving; it seemed like the team was going to roll into a straightforward victory.

 

An uneventful third begat a fortune change. That 3-0 lead—appearing even greater thanks to a feeling of untapped potential—lost potency in a second. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. was hit by a Bailey Ober pitch, which looked innocuous enough; Addison Barger’s two-run homer the very next pitch completely altered the tenor. Suddenly, Minnesota’s lead looked slim. The good vibes from earlier were completely gone.

One inning later, Ober allowed a single and a frankly catchable double that Matt Wallner bailed on to place two runners on. Bo Bichette—famous for his contact and unusual swing choice—dropped the droopiest single man could conceive into center to plate both Blue Jays. Those three previous runs never felt further away. 

A George Springer homer extended Toronto’s lead to two. All the while, the frames for Minnesota’s hitters melted into themselves; the Blue Jays “starter,” Paxton Schultz, gave way to Eric Lauer, who gave way to Mason Fluharty, who gave way to [insert every other pitcher here] with each subsequent reliever holding the once seemingly potent offense scoreless. And then the Blue Jays plated a sixth run in the eighth. Sure. 

The Twins finally fought back. At least a little. Larnach and Ty France reached base, auguring Rocco Baldelli to pinch-hit Ryan Jeffers against the lefty Brendon Little. He worked the count full before a curve below the zone inspired umpire Jordan Baker to punch him out. The pitch wasn’t a strike. The only solace Jeffers could take was in offering his displeasure to Baker. He was then ejected. So it goes. Royce Lewis later singled to bring the game within two, yet the sense of missed opportunity hung over the team as the game lurched into the ninth inning.

That sense was well-placed: Minnesota never offered a legitimate threat on the lead again. Jeff Hoffman walked one on his way to striking out the side to send the team home wondering what happened to the feeling they conjured after such a successful start to the game. 

Notes: 

• Lewis, whose slump has increasingly become a concern in Twins Territory, may have broken out of it tonight. Lewis was 3-3, with a double, an RBI and a run scored 
• Attendance for the Toronto series is typically high, as Canadians often travel to Target Field to see their team. With the ongoing trade dispute with Canada, there was some question if that would be the case this year. If it slowed visitors down, it's not apparent. Tonight's attendance was 26,847, and the Friday night game for last year's Blue Jays game, on August 30th, was 24,623. 
• Larnach is five homers away from tying a single-season career-high.
• Byron Buxton played his 820th game as a Twins, the 27th-most in team history. He's 12 away from tying Jorge Polanco. 

Post-Game Interview:

 

What’s Next?
The Twins and Blue Jays continue their melee with a Saturday scrum starting at 12:10 PM. Chris Paddack will start opposite Kevin Gausman. 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

 

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[knothole61]

Always tough with Toronto and their Molson Posse in town. I've attended several Twins/Blue Jays encounters over the years, and whatever Toronto's exact percentage of the crowd, the feeling is that the Twins are not the home team...more decidedly, in fact, than when the Brewers' fans descend. Is that an excuse for often folding to the Jays? not really...but that and the generally potent Toronto offense year after year is an explanation, I think.

Just win the series against Toronto and it's a feather in the cap! 

[Mark G]

I just read an article from The Athletic talking about Ober, and how his velocity is down from previous years, and even down from his low point this year.  Ober himself has said, very recently too, that he believes his mechanics are off and he is working on them.  It is great he went 7 tonight, but the 5 runs may be a result of the above mentioned two factors.  If that is true going forward, we may have to worry about the rotation more than we thought.  I am anxious to see Bailey in his next start or two and see if he works it out.  We definitely need him.  

[h2oface]

So sick of umpires. They try to do their best but they just can’t. They have ruined so many outcomes, we will never know what should have been. 

[CRF]

Disappointing loss. 

[Peter]

2 hours ago, h2oface said:

So sick of umpires. They try to do their best but they just can’t. They have ruined so many outcomes, we will never know what should have been. 

Agreed 1000%I hate hate hate umpires /referees with a passion!!!! as much as I love the twins and sports umpires/referees have ruined it!!  I’ll still watch twins every day but why bother if umpires decide who wins and not teams-Abs will be here next year but it needs to happen now!!! With abs umpires will no longer be needed as rigging/fixing games will come to end!!! Hate to say this but Without Pablo twins are screwed. We can’t afford to lose this series/have losing homestand lose at home. Just bad feeling losing Pablo ruined our season.

[Nashvilletwin]

Well, the “let’s rush the rookie pitcher into action by flying him to the west coast to start against the pathetic A’s while saving Ober for the home start against the strong hitting Blue Jays” strategy didn’t pan out.  Two losses and probably a little damage control to address the mental makeup of either or possibly both pitchers.

Too much thinking by Rocco? Perhaps.  But maybe letting Ober keep his scheduled start to try getting that last win in Sacramento, securing a winning road trip, keeping the team momentum going and letting the rookie start at home after no travel might have been a better call. 

[thelanges5]

Ober’s diminishing velo finally caught up to him. Velo and Ks both down in 2025. He and Maki need to figure this out. Need him more than ever with Pablo out. 

Offense continues to be my biggest concern. Whether it’s health (C4 missed last 3) or performance (don’t look at Clemens, Jeffers, Lewis, Bader stats since the streak ended) they have been too inconsistent. 
 

[hitterscount]

The umpire argument/excuse is beyond weak, it is so tiring to hear it after 90% of the losses.... Couldn't catch the game, however it sounds like better defense from Wallner or a clutch hit somewhere and Ober and the team gets the W. Take care of business and control what you can and then the big bad umps won't impact the outcome, because missed strikes go both ways.

[Whitey333]

Twins out played and out managed by Toronto.  But at least we have heard their excuses for the previous two losses.  They said the last game with the A's was the result of a long and tiring road trip.  It was evident in the early stages of that game that Rocco wasn't interested in being competitive.  Another Rocco throw away game.  Friday they lamented from the long road trip that Rocco said was successful.  5-5 suc essful?  Come on.  Three of those wins came against AAA calibre A's.  Saturday is important game.  Twins need to win against a good team.

[Nashvilletwin]

16 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

The umpire argument/excuse is beyond weak, it is so tiring to hear it after 90% of the losses.... Couldn't catch the game, however it sounds like better defense from Wallner or a clutch hit somewhere and Ober and the team gets the W. Take care of business and control what you can and then the big bad umps won't impact the outcome, because missed strikes go both ways.

Yes, you make great points. But the call was blatantly bad and bases loaded with no outs vs. first and third with one out are two totally different things.

But, as you correctly imply, the team that (demonstrably) hit, fielded, pitched, and ran the bases better won the game.  Umps or no umps - that is almost always the recipe for getting the win. It’s not rocket science. 

[Parfigliano]

38 minutes ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Well, the “let’s rush the rookie pitcher into action by flying him to the west coast to start against the pathetic A’s while saving Ober for the home start against the strong hitting Blue Jays” strategy didn’t pan out.  Two losses and probably a little damage control to address the mental makeup of either or possibly both pitchers.

Too much thinking by Rocco? Perhaps.  But maybe letting Ober keep his scheduled start to try getting that last win in Sacramento, securing a winning road trip, keeping the team momentum going and letting the rookie start at home after no travel might have been a better call. 

Maybe.  Maybe not.  Can't do anything about it but play on.

[Parfigliano]

28 minutes ago, hitterscount said:

The umpire argument/excuse is beyond weak, it is so tiring to hear it after 90% of the losses.... Couldn't catch the game, however it sounds like better defense from Wallner or a clutch hit somewhere and Ober and the team gets the W. Take care of business and control what you can and then the big bad umps won't impact the outcome, because missed strikes go both ways.

The DB Wallner didn't catch was crucial

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Well, the “let’s rush the rookie pitcher into action by flying him to the west coast to start against the pathetic A’s while saving Ober for the home start against the strong hitting Blue Jays” strategy didn’t pan out.  Two losses and probably a little damage control to address the mental makeup of either or possibly both pitchers.

Too much thinking by Rocco? Perhaps.  But maybe letting Ober keep his scheduled start to try getting that last win in Sacramento, securing a winning road trip, keeping the team momentum going and letting the rookie start at home after no travel might have been a better call. 

Anytime Rocco does think it is dangerous  , I couldn't resist ...

I hope paddack stays focused and can right the ship ...

[Blyleven2011]

50 minutes ago, Whitey333 said:

Twins out played and out managed by Toronto.  But at least we have heard their excuses for the previous two losses.  They said the last game with the A's was the result of a long and tiring road trip.  It was evident in the early stages of that game that Rocco wasn't interested in being competitive.  Another Rocco throw away game.  Friday they lamented from the long road trip that Rocco said was successful.  5-5 suc essful?  Come on.  Three of those wins came against AAA calibre A's.  Saturday is important game.  Twins need to win against a good team.

There excuse for the losses of the past 2 games was ( a long and tiring road trip ) ...

SURE HOPE THEY DON'T USE THAT EXCUSE FOR A LONG AND TIRING SEASON  ...

[Aerodeliria]

Give me a robot any day...

[dxpavelka]

6 minutes ago, Aerodeliria said:

Give me a robot any day...

good luck with that

 

[dxpavelka]

Lewis 3 for 3.  I slept well last night.  Mostly because I was tired but seeing the kid hit the ball a little didn't hurt.

[David Maro]

Two things here are Ober velocity down to 88-89 and Wallner giving up on a catch. If Ober has a injury the season will be over. And if Wallner is going to be in the lineup it should be as DH. 

[thelanges5]

Twins are 12th in both outs above average OAA and defensive runs saved DRS. Thats the good news.  

The bad news is that without Darth Bader, C4, and Buck the rest of the team is -14 OAA and -8 DRS

[LambchoP]

Concerned about our pitching. We already lost our ace. Ober's velo is way down. Paddack is bound to implode soon and both Zebby and Festa don't look quite ready for the majors. SWR and Morris are our only real AAA options and they haven't looked good either. With our weak offense, pitching is going to have to win us most games. Seems we are walking a fine line. If we're going to go for a playoff spot I think a veteran SP at the deadline or before will be essentially needed.

[Danchat]

1 hour ago, thelanges5 said:

Twins are 12th in both outs above average OAA and defensive runs saved DRS. Thats the good news.  

The bad news is that without Darth Bader, C4, and Buck the rest of the team is -14 OAA and -8 DRS

I have to wonder if that 12th gets bumped up a bit further if you remove Julien's and Miranda's blunders.

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Danchat said:

I have to wonder if that 12th gets bumped up a bit further if you remove Julien's and Miranda's blunders.

If France is above average, everyone else is bad!

[Peter]

3 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

good luck with that

 

Gonna happen next year!!! F the umpires!!!

[Whitey333]

Home plate umpiring has been atrocious throughout the league.  I've watched a lot of mlb games and almost every game the balls and strike calls are awful.  Plus the umps are so arrogant.  By the way I fir one, am sick and tired of watch Ty France loaf to first bases when hitting a grounded.  He does itbevery game and is inexcusable.  As a former manager once said  " if you can't run hard to first 3-4 times a game, you shouldn't be playing.  Ty France is dogging it.

[dxpavelka]

I always tell folks who grumble about ownership to buy the team.  Of course I know that's not logistically possible.  I will tell anyone who says F the umpires the same thing.  Become one.  Easy to do.  You can do it for baseball or softball.  7th 8th grade level or even JV to start.  You can start at the youth level, 4th graders.  You can do beer league or Park & Rec.  If you wanna say F the umpires, BECOME ONE.  See what it's all about.  Hell, they'll even pay you to do it.  If it's as easy as you must think you should be able to advance to the big leagues in short order.  Probably even make more money than you make at your current job.  Sack up.

 

[Werbellik]

Carlos Correa consumes 26% of the Twins payroll.

[h2oface]

12 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

Well, the “let’s rush the rookie pitcher into action by flying him to the west coast to start against the pathetic A’s while saving Ober for the home start against the strong hitting Blue Jays” strategy didn’t pan out.  Two losses and probably a little damage control to address the mental makeup of either or possibly both pitchers.

Too much thinking by Rocco? Perhaps.  But maybe letting Ober keep his scheduled start to try getting that last win in Sacramento, securing a winning road trip, keeping the team momentum going and letting the rookie start at home after no travel might have been a better call. 

The thing is, other teams do it to us all the time, and we too often make them look like the next MLB ace!

[h2oface]

5 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

I always tell folks who grumble about ownership to buy the team.  Of course I know that's not logistically possible.  I will tell anyone who says F the umpires the same thing.  Become one.  Easy to do.  You can do it for baseball or softball.  7th 8th grade level or even JV to start.  You can start at the youth level, 4th graders.  You can do beer league or Park & Rec.  If you wanna say F the umpires, BECOME ONE.  See what it's all about.  Hell, they'll even pay you to do it.  If it's as easy as you must think you should be able to advance to the big leagues in short order.  Probably even make more money than you make at your current job.  Sack up.

 

I did and have. Several levels and testings, etc. That is why I say..... they try to do their best, but they just can't. It is always a guess, Absolutely it is not easy. Almost impossible. But so many I met are real power trippers. They say it is because they love the game, but it really feeds their need to have a bit of power somewhere somehow. Arrogant power trippers. The only reason umpires existed in the first place was that was the best option. A suppossed impartial third party. Now we have better options. We still need them, but in a more administrative capacity, especially calling balls and strikes. They don't let "umpires" call the wall in a swim meet or the finish line in track or horse racing...... because there is a better more accurate option, especially at the professional level. It is pathetic that MLB continues to not progress on something so important and relatively simple that will improve the game and give it back to the players more. The players are the human element, it should not be the umpire. Being sick of them is not hating, and not a F the umpires.

They try to do their best......but they just can't. It damages the truist outcome of every game played. Not their fault. They are human and can just guess from horrible angles and speed, and the optic nerve only fires so fast. And I like to watch "moving pictures". Where would we be if that was not the case? The speed of our human transmission allows for a set of pictures to be perceived as motion and for some things, like movies, it is great, but not so much for umpiring, espeically in 2025. Hell, since 2005.

[dxpavelka]

28 minutes ago, h2oface said:

I did and have. Several levels and testings, etc. That is why I say..... they try to do their best, but they just can't. It is always a guess, Absolutely it is not easy. Almost impossible. But so many I met are real power trippers. They say it is because they love the game, but it really feeds their need to have a bit of power somewhere somehow. Arrogant power trippers. The only reason umpires existed in the first place was that was the best option. A suppossed impartial third party. Now we have better options. We still need them, but in a more administrative capacity, especially calling balls and strikes. They don't let "umpires" call the wall in a swim meet or the finish line in track or horse racing...... because there is a better more accurate option, especially at the professional level. It is pathetic that MLB continues to not progress on something so important and relatively simple that will improve the game and give it back to the players more. The players are the human element, it should not be the umpire. Being sick of them is not hating, and not a F the umpires.

They try to do their best......but they just can't. It damages the truist outcome of every game played. Not their fault. They are human and can just guess from horrible angles and speed, and the optic nerve only fires so fast. And I like to watch "moving pictures". Where would we be if that was not the case? The speed of our human transmission allows for a set of pictures to be perceived as motion and for some things, like movies, it is great, but not so much for umpiring, espeically in 2025. Hell, since 2005.

If you think "it is always a guess" maybe it's just that you weren't good at it.  Robot technology will just bring a different set of issues for folks to disagree with. 

Just like replay.  If more than one person looks at a replay there is a damn good chance that there will be more than one interpretation of the outcome. 

I mean look at what we have right now.  On every pitch we have a box on the screen that is "supposed" to represent the strike zone.  Now pull up the rule book and read what is says the strike zone is really supposed to be.  Not even close.  

Do umpires make mistakes?  Sure.  Will robots?  **** yes.  Whether you want to believe that or not.  I still umpire slow pitch softball at the park & rec level.  Just about the easiest level of umpiring you'll find.  Do I get every call right?  Nope.  But I do the best I can do.  Hell, if I walk off the field and both teams are pissed off at me because of one call that went against each of them I figure I had the best day of anyone on the field.

Nobody's perfect.  No umpires, not players, not coaches / managers and sure as hell not fans.  

If we're going to fix one of those with robots, why not robot players as well?