Brooks Lee Is Back To Being Brooks Lee

[Cody Pirkl]

Injuries have presented Brooks Lee with an opportunity again this season, after he did little to seize one in 2024. While his surface-level numbers are unimpressive, Lee looks like a different player in 2025.

Image courtesy of Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

Brooks Lee was overmatched at the plate in 2024, and while it was his first taste of MLB action, his performance at least started to raise some red flags on the former 8th overall pick. He’s putting those concerns to bed in 2025, even if his superficial stats aren’t showing it.

Lee’s most significant issue in 2024 was that he showed no semblance of the elite plate discipline he displayed across the minor leagues. It appeared Lee was overmatched and overanxious, chasing 35.8% of the time while continuing to make contact at a high rate. As we’ve seen with players like Jose Miranda, there comes a point where a lack of swing-and-miss becomes detrimental, particularly when the contact being made is outside of the strike zone. 

While Lee’s game is not centered upon his ability to do significant damage at the plate, his lack of power in 2024 was alarming. His average exit velocity of 85.8 mph would have ranked him in the bottom 15 of qualified hitters last season. His hard-hit percentage would have been in the bottom 10. While far from a death sentence in such a small sample, he had a long way to go to meet already low expectations in the power department.

This season has been a much different story for Brooks Lee. His modest .683 OPS is slightly above the league-average hitter, but the process is entirely different. He’s improved his quality of contact across the board, including adding roughly 4 mph to his average exit velocity. Hard-hit rate, barrel rate, expected slugging, and even Lee’s expected batting average have spiked so far, and it’s only a matter of time before these improvements show up in his bottom-line performance.

Much like Lee’s struggles in 2024, these metrics have a root cause that can be traced back to his plate approach. He’s swung at more pitches in the zone while cutting 16% off his chase rate. He’s making less weak contact, letting these pitches outside of the zone go, and setting himself up with more favorable hitting counts to get pitches he can barrel. This is the approach that made him such a polished hitting prospect.

Lee’s change in plate approach is likely a result of the newfound confidence he feels at the plate, which shows in multiple layers of his profile. In 2024, he appeared to be sitting back to fight everything off. He hit .175 against fastballs with a .275 slugging percentage. So far in 2025, he’s hitting .273 with a .455 slugging against them, and expected stats say he’s been unlucky.

He’s hit offspeed pitches even better than fastballs, but has yet to collect a hit against breaking balls. How he adjusts to pitchers who try to abuse this weakness will likely determine how high Brooks Lee’s ceiling can be offensively. 

Brooks Lee looks like a player who acknowledged his struggles in his brief debut and went to work in the offseason. Despite an early season back injury delaying his start to the season, he looks like a different player at the plate. His overall performance is unimpressive, but his underlying numbers provide exciting foreshadowing. His .368 xwOBA is ahead of players like Randy Arozarena and Francisco Lindor. If Lee can maintain this performance, he’ll be a serious contributor to the Twins’ roster.

Lee looks like a completely different player so far in 2025. Given his minor-league track record, his plate approach supports the quality of contact and makes 2024 look like the outlier in his career. The raw production should be right around the corner for Brooks Lee, and he may simply be a core member of the Twins’ lineup for years to come.

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[rdehring]

Wasn't Lee rushed to the Twins last year with little or no time at AAA?  Then he had an injury this spring and again hasn't had any time to develop and gain experience at AAA.  Way too much concern about his initial success.  Let's give the kid some time to develop.  Unfortunately, or maybe not, looks like it will be with the Twins.

[LambchoP]

While Lee may never be a true super star we always hope for, I can see him being a very defensively sound 2b, 3rd baseman who can occasionally fill in at shortstop. Offensively he might not hit for a ton of power but could hit .240-.270 with 10-15 HR in a full season. Wouldn't be the worst numbers for a second baseman. I just wonder how it all plays out when Keaschal is back. My guess is long term should probably be

1b - Lewis

2b - Keaschal 

SS - Correa

3b - Lee

Castro, Julien, Miranda fighting it out for backup IF at bats.

 

[mickster]

13 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

While Lee may never be a true super star we always hope for, I can see him being a very defensively sound 2b, 3rd baseman who can occasionally fill in at shortstop. Offensively he might not hit for a ton of power but could hit .240-.270 with 10-15 HR in a full season. Wouldn't be the worst numbers for a second baseman. I just wonder how it all plays out when Keaschal is back. My guess is long term should probably be

1b - Lewis

2b - Keaschal 

SS - Correa

3b - Lee

Castro, Julien, Miranda fighting it out for backup IF at bats.

 

Miranda has seen the last of Target Field

[Rod Carews Birthday]

Wow!  My first thought was “a .683 OPS is above league average?!”  That’s pretty low, but give him credit where it’s due.    

I’m glad he seems to be doing better this year.  I’d like a little more of a track record to proclaim him to be fixed though.  He’s definitely taken a step forward.  Let’s keep this going and see how he continues to adjust when the pitchers adjust.  

[bean5302]

We're dealing with some really small sample sizes right now, but Lee's right handed swing is showing much faster than last year. Lee was 
2024 RHB - 65 swings, 70.1mph
2025 RHB - 16 swings, 73.0mph
2024 LHB - 214 swings, 69.1mph
2025 LHB - 54 swings, 69.6mph

Now, when you look at the chart, there's a pretty fair potential it's just a data point issue. Most of Lee's swings fall well under the dashed line suggesting there probably hasn't been a change in swing speed.


Lee's been on fire lately in terms of hard hit and barrel rates with elite results despite below average bat speed. I don't think the power is sustainable, but Lee may be demonstrating more of his potential hit tool by laying off bad pitches this year. Last year, Lee's O-swing was a poor 36.9% while this year it's way down at only 24.4% (league average about 28%). He's swinging at pitches in the zone more as well up from 67.5% to 72.0%. This matters for a couple reasons. He's taking a strike looking much less, and he's been able to get ahead in the count a lot more so he's seeing better pitches to hit.

If we look at the zones, Lee is doing a lot of damage in weird locations (outside the zone), and I just don't think it's sustainable without an improvement in results in the zone. That said, confidence can be a huge boost to a player. Royce Lewis was getting a lot of high end results he didn't really earn in his rookie season, but as the season went on a bit, his underlying performance kept improving a lot to the point where he was earning every bit of what he was producing. Here's hoping Brooks Lee will be able to build confidence off his results and improve his approach at the plate to drive results as the season progresses.
 

[Jocko87]

12 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

We're dealing with some really small sample sizes right now, but Lee's right handed swing is showing much faster than last year. Lee was 
2024 RHB - 65 swings, 70.1mph
2025 RHB - 16 swings, 73.0mph
2024 LHB - 214 swings, 69.1mph
2025 LHB - 54 swings, 69.6mph

Now, when you look at the chart, there's a pretty fair potential it's just a data point issue. Most of Lee's swings fall well under the dashed line suggesting there probably hasn't been a change in swing speed.


Lee's been on fire lately in terms of hard hit and barrel rates with elite results despite below average bat speed. I don't think the power is sustainable, but Lee may be demonstrating more of his potential hit tool by laying off bad pitches this year. Last year, Lee's O-swing was a poor 36.9% while this year it's way down at only 24.4% (league average about 28%). He's swinging at pitches in the zone more as well up from 67.5% to 72.0%. This matters for a couple reasons. He's taking a strike looking much less, and he's been able to get ahead in the count a lot more so he's seeing better pitches to hit.

If we look at the zones, Lee is doing a lot of damage in weird locations (outside the zone), and I just don't think it's sustainable without an improvement in results in the zone. That said, confidence can be a huge boost to a player. Royce Lewis was getting a lot of high end results he didn't really earn in his rookie season, but as the season went on a bit, his underlying performance kept improving a lot to the point where he was earning every bit of what he was producing. Here's hoping Brooks Lee will be able to build confidence off his results and improve his approach at the plate to drive results as the season progresses.
 

This is the data error in the right hand swing.  Saturday against Kikucki.  As much of a Lee bobo as I am, he ain’t got this kinda speed.

[DJL44]

51 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

While Lee may never be a true super star we always hope for, I can see him being a very defensively sound 2b, 3rd baseman who can occasionally fill in at shortstop. Offensively he might not hit for a ton of power but could hit .240-.270 with 10-15 HR in a full season. Wouldn't be the worst numbers for a second baseman. I just wonder how it all plays out when Keaschal is back. My guess is long term should probably be

1b - Lewis

2b - Keaschal 

SS - Correa

3b - Lee

Castro, Julien, Miranda fighting it out for backup IF at bats.

Castro's gone long-term. Miranda is out of options after this year so he'll be a backup or gone.

I like a bench of Bride, Castro and Julien.

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, rdehring said:

Wasn't Lee rushed to the Twins last year with little or no time at AAA?  Then he had an injury this spring and again hasn't had any time to develop and gain experience at AAA.  Way too much concern about his initial success.  Let's give the kid some time to develop.  Unfortunately, or maybe not, looks like it will be with the Twins.

Yes, I think Lee was rushed a little, at least relative to his peers.  874 PA's across all minor league levels isn't a lot.  

Except for Zach Neto, Lee is the top performing 1st rounder from that 2022 draft.  2nd round picks haven't done much yet either.  Maybe it was a weak draft, maybe there are more guys still coming, but right now it looks like the Twins picked pretty wisely.

[Mrs. Baseball]

Your last sentence said it all. Core contributor for years to come. It's in his DNA.

[jorgenswest]

1 hour ago, LambchoP said:

While Lee may never be a true super star we always hope for, I can see him being a very defensively sound 2b, 3rd baseman who can occasionally fill in at shortstop. Offensively he might not hit for a ton of power but could hit .240-.270 with 10-15 HR in a full season. Wouldn't be the worst numbers for a second baseman. I just wonder how it all plays out when Keaschal is back. My guess is long term should probably be

1b - Lewis

2b - Keaschal 

SS - Correa

3b - Lee

Castro, Julien, Miranda fighting it out for backup IF at bats.

 

You are likely correct but I am not confident that Keaschall will stick at 2B. The better defense might be Lewis at 3B, Lee at 2B with Keaschall at 1B or Julien at 2B with Keaschall in LF.

Ultimately 1B, 2B, 3B and LF need to go to the best hitters among the group and then slot them in defensively.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Road trip said:

Yes, I think Lee was rushed a little, at least relative to his peers.  874 PA's across all minor league levels isn't a lot.  

Except for Zach Neto, Lee is the top performing 1st rounder from that 2022 draft.  2nd round picks haven't done much yet either.  Maybe it was a weak draft, maybe there are more guys still coming, but right now it looks like the Twins picked pretty wisely.

Jackson Holliday looks pretty good. He went 1-1. Maybe you just meant from players the Twins could have drafted. They got a haul in the 2022 draft - Connor Prielipp, Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis and CJ Culpepper.

[Road trip]

6 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Jackson Holliday looks pretty good. He went 1-1. Maybe you just meant from players the Twins could have drafted. They got a haul in the 2022 draft - Connor Prielipp, Zebby Matthews, Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis and CJ Culpepper.

Yes, of course Holliday looks promising and is much younger.  As you noted the Twins never had a chance.  And yet, Holliday has only accumulated .1 WAR so far despite quite a bit more playing time than Lee.  Seems very likely that better days will be coming for him though.

The 2022 haul looks good on prospect paper.  If half of those mentioned become good MLB players its a successful draft, especially considering guys like Zebby, Lewis, and Culpepper were mid-rounders.

[Bodie]

He looks like he belongs at Target Field.  That, in and of itself, is the key. 

I don't give a tinkers dam about exit velocity.   Last year he'd have been hanging out statistically with one Luis Arraez in that category, so...

#manywaystoskinacat

 

[RpR]

Lee is GOOD at 3rd base , it would be stupid to play games by NOT putting him where he is best.

[Linus]

I guess I didn’t know we knew what Lee was getting back to?

[dxpavelka]

Is it possible that all the "experts" on this site who wrote him off after a couple hundred plate appearances might be, dare I say, WRONG?