Minnesota Twins 2025 Opening Day Roster Projection: Post-Royce Lewis Injury Edition

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Julien watching two pitches in the middle of the zone and then swinging out of his cleats for a three pitch strike out...

Not sure I'm looking forward to that.

[ashbury]

5 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Everybody seems to be slotting Miranda at 3B.  

...

I suspect you all are correct that Miranda gets slotted there.

"Thank you for coming to my TED Talk™."  😀

[Greglw3]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Wait until you hear about pitchers hurting their arms throwing baseballs...

I read yesterday that when a player has an ACL injury, it makes lower half leg injuries more likely, not to mention he has had 2 ACL surgeries. Look what happened to Derrick Rose after his 1st ACL This is in response to the last couple of posts just as an FYI.

[Greglw3]

I’d prefer subtracting one of Julien, Lee or possibly Varland and keeping DaShawn Keirsey Jr who has had a very good spring, hitting .290 over .400 OBP and is regarded by the Twins as aa very talented defender per the first spring training broadcast.

[amjgt]

I'm not giving up on Martin, but I feel like we need to see Keirsey for a 2 month stretch to see if he's going to be a long term 4th/5th OF or if he's 40-man roster fodder. 

We've seen Martin for that long of a stretch and he's shown us pretty much what he is. A 5th OF who you don't really trust to play center and can play 2nd in a pinch, but you'll be cringing when you do it. 

If we're going to carry a 5th OF, I'd rather it be a guy who I'm perfectly happy seeing in CF. 

Having a late game defense of Buxton, Bader, and Keirsey sounds pretty appealing to me. 

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Julien watching two pitches in the middle of the zone and then swinging out of his cleats for a three pitch strike out...

Not sure I'm looking forward to that.

Has he done that repeatedly this spring? For his first several games of spring he took very few called strikes and the ones he took made sense (being ahead in the count and looking for a certain pitch), I didn’t keep it up and he did take a called strike 2 today in his second at bat before putting the ball in play on the next pitch,

Continuing to work on that approach in AAA might be the best route for him but he appears to have a more aggressive approach on pitches in the strike zone.

edit: Next at bat after I wrote this he took three called strikes.

[mluebker]

4 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

Feel bad for Lewis, but don't oversimplify what is happening here.

Of course I feel bad for Lewis. But there’s no question he’s injury-prone. And regardless of why, that means his value to the team isn’t going to be any more than as a part-time player who may or may not be available when they need him.

[sweetmusicviola16]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

The results of the average pitcher throwing 95mph instead of 80-85mph. Stress on the body is directly related to the velocity.

I would like to see a return to pitchers throwing 85mph. For various reasons.  I'd also like to see the return of the Hough's, Niekro bros, and Candoitti and Dickey. Nothing more entertaining than watching Hough mystify batters. But for now the arm injuries will only continue as the human body can't stand up to this rigor. Unless your name was Nolan Ryan.

[mluebker]

4 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's honestly just tough to say how many underlying issues there are. From specialized sports (year round focus on a singular sport/position/action) to the emphasis on velocity resulting in kids concentrating on throwing the ball harder rather than healthier so they can get drafted in the first place. There's a chicken-egg thing going on.

You’re absolutely right. But once a guy has demonstrated over 2-3 seasons that, for whatever reason, that his body is unable to stand the strain necessary to compete at the major league level, do you just keep sending him out there and hoping he’ll get better? When do you decide that’s not doing him or the team any good, and do something else?

[mluebker]

7 hours ago, Cody Schoenmann said:

Unfortunately, those fortunes changed when star third baseman Royce Lewis sustained a left hamstring strain in the process of grounding out to third base in the second inning of Sunday's exhibition game against the Boston Red Sox.

 

5 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

I guarantee you no one feels worse about his injury then Lewis.  I guarantee you Lewis, with his history, put an insane amount of time in to avoid this type of injury.

I’m sure he feels bad. But whatever he’s doing to avoid injury obviously isn’t working. He’s coming off months of rest and out of spring training. He should be at his best. But he’s unable to run 90 feet without straining his hamstring? The cumulative effects of his prior injuries apparently have taken their toll and no matter how much we feel for the guy and want him to succeed, he clearly can’t be relied upon.

[twinstalker]

Quote

The Twins have one of the best catching duos in the AL.

Do they?  It seems pretty much like the rest of the league, to be generous.  Can you imagine the disdain you'd have for Vazquez if he were on a different team?  His OPS was .575 last year, 105 points less than the average catcher.  He threw out runners 27% less effectively than the average AL catcher.  We've all been told he's not a good framer.  And yet, unlike other teams, we split our catching innings and ABs about 50/50, meaning we give our worse catcher far more playing time, dropping the duo even further down.

 

[RpR]

6 minutes ago, twinstalker said:

Do they?  It seems pretty much like the rest of the team, to be generous.  Can you imagine the disdain you'd have for Vazquez if he were on a different team?  His OPS was .575 last year, 105 points less than the average catcher.  He threw out runners 27% less effectively than the average AL catcher.  We've all been told he's not a good framer.  And yet, unlike other teams, we split our catching innings and ABs about 50/50, meaning we give our worse catcher far more playing time, dropping the duo even further down.

 

Vazquez had 1 passed ball, 19 wild pitches and 1 pick off; Jeffers had 3 passed balls, 28 wild pitches and 0 picks.

There is a reason that all of Jeffer's Rtot and Ryder numbers are all negative and Vazquez's are all positive.

[bean5302]

35 minutes ago, mluebker said:

You’re absolutely right. But once a guy has demonstrated over 2-3 seasons that, for whatever reason, that his body is unable to stand the strain necessary to compete at the major league level, do you just keep sending him out there and hoping he’ll get better? When do you decide that’s not doing him or the team any good, and do something else?

If you're talking about Royce Lewis, the doctors have talked about it. The 2 years he spent recovering from consecutive ACL reconstructions weakened the rest of his lower body making him susceptible to additional injuries. The severe quad strain last year didn't heal, and then he pulled his groin. Lewis was never 100%. I'm not sure if he'll ever be able to work his way back to "healthy"

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, mluebker said:

You’re absolutely right. But once a guy has demonstrated over 2-3 seasons that, for whatever reason, that his body is unable to stand the strain necessary to compete at the major league level, do you just keep sending him out there and hoping he’ll get better? When do you decide that’s not doing him or the team any good, and do something else?

Do what? Trade him for pennies on the dollar and put in the less talented players you're already putting in there? Just cut him and play the less talented players you're already playing? They're having him train as best they know how. They have world class doctors and trainers coming up with his training plans. What exactly should they be doing?

What better option do they have? Nobody is going to give them some killer package for him. When he's healthy they put him out there because he's amongst the most talent baseball players on the planet. When he's hurt they play somebody else. What else can they do?

[Exiled in Illinois]

Feel bad for Lewis, the team, and us fans.  When he returns, I expect he will not be the everyday 3rd baseman.  He'll time share it with whatever players are still on roster that can play 3rd base.  I think he will get most of his at bats as DH, and I think that would be for the best this year.  

Longer term, he needs to be moved to 1st base, should have been done this year.  He'll be a better fielder there, with less wear and tear.  

And yes, I know he injured himself running the bases:)

[mluebker]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

What better option do they have? Nobody is going to give them some killer package for him. When he's healthy they put him out there because he's amongst the most talent baseball players on the planet. When he's hurt they play somebody else. What else can they do?

So what, just keep him on the roster and pay him to sit on the IL? Maybe make him a DH? Or just stock the roster with fragile, part-time players at full-time prices? (At least they haven’t signed him to a long-term, guaranteed contract—yet.)

[mluebker]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

If you're talking about Royce Lewis, the doctors have talked about it. The 2 years he spent recovering from consecutive ACL reconstructions weakened the rest of his lower body making him susceptible to additional injuries. The severe quad strain last year didn't heal, and then he pulled his groin. Lewis was never 100%. I'm not sure if he'll ever be able to work his way back to "healthy"

Exactly. So how do the Twins get the most out of him and keep him healthy at the same time? DH? First base?

[mluebker]

48 minutes ago, Exiled in Illinois said:

Longer term, he needs to be moved to 1st base, should have been done this year.  He'll be a better fielder there, with less wear and tear. 

Amen.

[chpettit19]

34 minutes ago, mluebker said:

So what, just keep him on the roster and pay him to sit on the IL? Maybe make him a DH? Or just stock the roster with fragile, part-time players at full-time prices? (At least they haven’t signed him to a long-term, guaranteed contract—yet.)

He makes 1.625 million, so, yeah, keep him on the roster and pay him while he's on the IL. Every team has injuries. I don't know why fans act like it's just the the Twins. Buxton and Lewis are extreme, that's it.

Ronald Acuna Jr has had 2 ACL tears, another season with an ACL sprain, multiple with back injuries, multiple with groin injuries, and has only played 119 games three times in 7 years (less than half the time for those counting). He's on a $100,000,000 deal. Should the Braves trade him? Cut him? Last year they lost Spencer Strider, Acuna (to his 2nd ACL tear), Austin Riley, Sean Murphy, Ozzie Albies (only played 4 full seasons in 8 years), and Michael Harris II. Should they trade any of those guys or "stock the roster with fragile, part-time players at full-time prices?" But then they actually got over 103 innings out of Chris Sale for the first time since 2019 as he wont the Cy Young for them. "Fragile, part-time player at full-time price" paid off pretty well there.

In 10 major league seasons Corey Seager has played over 120 games 5 times. Helped Texas win a World Series, though. Oh, and the Dodgers. And he's on a $325,000,000 deal.

Some fella named Trout has played 100 games once since 2019, 140 once since 2017. And he's making $426,500,000.

Stephen Strasburg helped the Nats win a World Series and had a $245,000,000 deal while making 30 starts 3 times in 13 seasons, and just 8 starts after 2019. 

And those are just the guys I can think of off the top of my head. The Twins aren't special. This is just the world of professional sports. It sucks. Buxton and Lewis are most certainly extremes, but they're not the only ones. Go ask a Reds fan about Ken Griffey Jr. Shoot, even Red Sox fans got pretty fed up with Pedroia, and he was a hero around there. You need stars to win. Buxton and Lewis are stars. It sucks they can't seem to stay healthy. But neither of them are expensive in the grand scheme of baseball salaries, and moving them without stars to replace them wouldn't make the team better.

[mluebker]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

He makes 1.625 million, so, yeah, keep him on the roster and pay him while he's on the IL. Every team has injuries. I don't know why fans act like it's just the the Twins. Buxton and Lewis are extreme, that's it.

I sure didn't say the Twins were the only ones with injury issues. But it does seem they're collecting injury-prone, part-timers who are great when they can play, but the problem is the "when they can play" part. Nobody can rely on any of them being in the line-up every day. And let's not forget to add Correa to that list with Lewis and Buxton.

If those guys aren't able to contribute commensurate the the salaries they get paid, then it's time to make some changes--maybe find them slots where they're less likely to get hurt. But I'm pretty sure all of them will be expected to run to first base from time to time.

Look, I want them to succeed as much as anyone. But how many chances do we give them? When do we acknowledge they aren't and probably never again will be the guys they were when they were signed? When does a small-market team with serious budget constraints like the Twins make some hard choices and cut their losses? Are we satisfied getting part-timers for full-time money?

Hope isn't a strategy. Right now, a third of the (projected) starting line-up is unlikely to be on the field regularly for anything close to a full season. That's not a great place to be starting it.

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, mluebker said:

I sure didn't say the Twins were the only ones with injury issues. But it does seem they're collecting injury-prone, part-timers who are great when they can play, but the problem is the "when they can play" part. Nobody can rely on any of them being in the line-up every day. And let's not forget to add Correa to that list with Lewis and Buxton.

If those guys aren't able to contribute commensurate the the salaries they get paid, then it's time to make some changes--maybe find them slots where they're less likely to get hurt. But I'm pretty sure all of them will be expected to run to first base from time to time.

Look, I want them to succeed as much as anyone. But how many chances do we give them? When do we acknowledge they aren't and probably never again will be the guys they were when they were signed? When does a small-market team with serious budget constraints like the Twins make some hard choices and cut their losses? Are we satisfied getting part-timers for full-time money?

Hope isn't a strategy. Right now, a third of the (projected) starting line-up is unlikely to be on the field regularly for anything close to a full season. That's not a great place to be starting it.

I won't add Correa to the list because he doesn't belong there. He played 136 games his first year here and 135 his 2nd, That's the point. You delete the entire part where I list numerous other players playing less and making more because you have a narrative you want to sell. I'm not buying.

Buxton and Lewis are contributing commensurate to their salaries. They're outperforming their salaries. Lewis makes less than 2 million this year. He'll outproduce that salary in a month. He isn't getting "full-time money." Correa missing half of one year doesn't suddenly make him a "part-time player." 

Until you can name anybody even close to their talent level to replace them then your strategy is just as much "hope" as keeping them around. Putting less talented guys out there for more games and "hoping" they are suddenly better players isn't a strategy either. 

So, back to my original question to you. What's the other plan? For any or all three of the guys you think aren't meeting their pay. Trade them? Cut them? Bench them? Move Buxton to a corner, Lewis to 1B and Correa to 3B (hint: there's no magic position on a baseball field where guys don't get hurt)? You're the one who thinks there needs to be changes. What changes should there be that isn't just a strategy of hope? How are you going to replace the 3 most talented players on the team or keep them on the field more without hope being your strategy?

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

He makes 1.625 million, so, yeah, keep him on the roster and pay him while he's on the IL. Every team has injuries. I don't know why fans act like it's just the the Twins. Buxton and Lewis are extreme, that's it.

Ronald Acuna Jr has had 2 ACL tears, another season with an ACL sprain, multiple with back injuries, multiple with groin injuries, and has only played 119 games three times in 7 years (less than half the time for those counting). He's on a $100,000,000 deal. Should the Braves trade him?...

I think they should eat most of his salary and trade him for Lewis. 😀

[Greglw3]

6 hours ago, twinstalker said:

Do they?  It seems pretty much like the rest of the league, to be generous.  Can you imagine the disdain you'd have for Vazquez if he were on a different team?  His OPS was .575 last year, 105 points less than the average catcher.  He threw out runners 27% less effectively than the average AL catcher.  We've all been told he's not a good framer.  And yet, unlike other teams, we split our catching innings and ABs about 50/50, meaning we give our worse catcher far more playing time, dropping the duo even further down.

 

Neither guy was much good last year. Give me Earl Battey or Brian Harper or Butch Wynegar, Mitch Garver or of course, Joe Mauer. Optimistically, Vazquez could move back a bit to his former offensive self and Jeffers maybe could take a step up toward Mitch Garver status.

[mluebker]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

You delete the entire part where I list numerous other players playing less and making more because you have a narrative you want to sell. I'm not buying.

No, it just has nothing to do with the point I’m making: The Twins are getting part-time players for full-time salaries. You don’t have to guess what I mean, I’m saying it straight out.

[mluebker]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

So, back to my original question to you. What's the other plan?

I answered that someplace: Either move them to less physically demanding positions or roles where they can be in the line-up more regularly, or keep paying full-time salaries for part-time players. Occasional star-quality performances aren’t enough to win championships. But as far as I can tell, the front office isn’t interested in fielding championship teams, just teams good enough to put butts in seats and make a profit. 

[Mike Sixel]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I won't add Correa to the list because he doesn't belong there. He played 136 games his first year here and 135 his 2nd, That's the point. You delete the entire part where I list numerous other players playing less and making more because you have a narrative you want to sell. I'm not buying.

Buxton and Lewis are contributing commensurate to their salaries. They're outperforming their salaries. Lewis makes less than 2 million this year. He'll outproduce that salary in a month. He isn't getting "full-time money." Correa missing half of one year doesn't suddenly make him a "part-time player." 

Until you can name anybody even close to their talent level to replace them then your strategy is just as much "hope" as keeping them around. Putting less talented guys out there for more games and "hoping" they are suddenly better players isn't a strategy either. 

So, back to my original question to you. What's the other plan? For any or all three of the guys you think aren't meeting their pay. Trade them? Cut them? Bench them? Move Buxton to a corner, Lewis to 1B and Correa to 3B (hint: there's no magic position on a baseball field where guys don't get hurt)? You're the one who thinks there needs to be changes. What changes should there be that isn't just a strategy of hope? How are you going to replace the 3 most talented players on the team or keep them on the field more without hope being your strategy?

The problem isn't money, it's roster management. How do you build a team, if you have to have two starting 3b and two starting CF? Because that's what you need with these two. Not just backups, but legit starters. And what do you do with those guys when they aren't starting? Can you have a bench? 

Maybe...if Miranda can play third and first, though they've decided that's France at first. Maybe if you DH one of your OF full time. But it gets hard to plan and manage if you know these two are missing half the season or more. 

[chpettit19]

5 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

The problem isn't money, it's roster management. How do you build a team, if you have to have two starting 3b and two starting CF? Because that's what you need with these two. Not just backups, but legit starters. And what do you do with those guys when they aren't starting? Can you have a bench? 

Maybe...if Miranda can play third and first, though they've decided that's France at first. Maybe if you DH one of your OF full time. But it gets hard to plan and manage if you know these two are missing half the season or more. 

Fine. Cut them. Trade them. Now you have $17 million and only need one starting 3B and CF. Find even remotely as much talent as Buxton and Lewis for $17 million to build your team with. Good luck with that. Not a lot of starting level guys out there for 8.5 mil. Harrison Bader doing it for you?

It sucks they can't stay healthy. But you need stars if you want to win at a high level. They're stars. You need them. So you need to develop talent behind them to get you through the times they're down and hope they're healthy for the postseason and you can go on a run. Or you can get rid of them and give up all hope.

[chpettit19]

7 hours ago, mluebker said:

No, it just has nothing to do with the point I’m making: The Twins are getting part-time players for full-time salaries. You don’t have to guess what I mean, I’m saying it straight out.

So is everyone else in the league. Welcome to pro sports. And, again, ROYCE LEWIS MAKES 1.625 MILLION. That is not "full-time salary" no matter how many times you want to say it. And Buxton's 15 mil is not "full-time salary" either. A player of his talent level being paid a "full-time salary" gets paid over 30 mil. He's getting paid a "part-time salary." Sorry to break it to you.

[chpettit19]

7 hours ago, mluebker said:

I answered that someplace: Either move them to less physically demanding positions or roles where they can be in the line-up more regularly, or keep paying full-time salaries for part-time players. Occasional star-quality performances aren’t enough to win championships. But as far as I can tell, the front office isn’t interested in fielding championship teams, just teams good enough to put butts in seats and make a profit. 

There's no magical position where guys don't get hurt. Guys get hurt at every position. Freddie Freeman is a star and plays first base and was hurt all playoffs last year anyways because you can get hurt playing any position(he's also not playing today because he's hurt). Third base is not a physically demanding position. Ronald Acuna Jr gets hurt playing in right field, not center field. Royce has been hurt running the bases 2 years in a row. Fernando Tatis Jr has been injured swinging his bat. Your suggestion isn't an answer to anything.

Yes, "occasional star-quality performances" are enough to win a championship. It's exactly what the postseason is. A one month stretch where you need to get hot and get star-quality performances to win a championship. You don't need Buxton and Lewis to be stars for 6 months of the regular season, you need to get in the playoffs and have them be stars for a month. Go ask the Dodgers and their fans. Remember that Corey Seager fella I mentioned that you deleted out because he "had nothing to do with the point you're making of the Twins paying part-time players full-time salaries?" Well, he's making a "full-time salary" (32.5 mil/year) and was a "part-time player" in 2023, but was there for the postseason and helped Texas win a World Series.

Hey, if you think the Twins can replace what Lewis and Buxton do for $17 million, more power to you. I think you'd be hard pressed, but at least you wouldn't have to worry about a star getting hurt. Because you wouldn't have them.

[Major League Ready]

25 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Fine. Cut them. Trade them. Now you have $17 million and only need one starting 3B and CF. Find even remotely as much talent as Buxton and Lewis for $17 million to build your team with. Good luck with that. Not a lot of starting level guys out there for 8.5 mil. Harrison Bader doing it for you?

It sucks they can't stay healthy. But you need stars if you want to win at a high level. They're stars. You need them. So you need to develop talent behind them to get you through the times they're down and hope they're healthy for the postseason and you can go on a run. Or you can get rid of them and give up all hope.

Adding to your point, Buxton produced .6 less WAR than Correa last year for less than half the money so if Buxton is a problem, Correa is a huge problem.  Looking longer term, Buxton has produced 12.9 WAR the last 4 years which is under $5M per WAR which is much better than league average.   If we get last year's production out of Buxton and Bader that's 5 WAR for $21M.  What's the problem in terms of money and I want Buxton on my playoff roster.