Minnesota Twins 2025 Opening Day Roster Projection: Post-Royce Lewis Injury Edition

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Adding to your point, Buxton produced .6 less WAR than Correa last year for less than half the money so if Buxton is a problem, Correa is a huge problem.  Looking longer term, Buxton has produced 12.9 WAR the last 4 years which is under $5M per WAR which is much better than league average.   If we get last year's production out of Buxton and Bader that's 5 WAR for $21M.  What's the problem in terms of money and I want Buxton on my playoff roster.   

I wish they'd stay healthy. I definitely get the frustration. I get frustrated, too. But they're better than anything we'd replace them with. And they aren't expensive. Lewis especially. But even Buxton. Correa is. But last year was the only time here he didn't play at least 135 games. 

Every team deals with injuries every year. Every single one. The Twins aren't special. Yes, Buxton and Lewis are hurt way more than usual, but that doesn't mean the Twins deal with more injuries and need more "starter level backups" than everybody else. It's actually a bonus knowing where you're going to need your injury fill-ins. Every team wants starter level replacements for their starters who get injured. The injuries to other teams don't all happen to bench guys. But they don't all know it'll be at 3B and CF. Theirs may be LF or SS or 2B or 1B or C or RF. The Twins have had incredible SP and C health the last couple years but people want to focus on the injuries even though the Twins are league average overall.

The Twins failing to develop a useable CF option for league minimum is the problem. Having to go out and get MAT, Margot, or Bader types is the problem. You should be able to develop a guy who can play OF defense and OPS+ 70-90 to backup Buck for 750K instead of 4-7 mil. Keirsey may be that guy now, but his injuries held him up too long. If they have a glove only guy like MAT or Bader from the system all these years its not such a big deal to work to have Buxton healthy by the time the playoffs roll around and have him for that time of year.

[Riverbrian]

It's a shame... all we needed was 9 starters and 4 bench players and we were all set for 162 games. 

I'm shocked, shocked to find that injuries have happened in this clubhouse.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

The Twins failing to develop a useable CF option for league minimum is the problem. Having to go out and get MAT, Margot, or Bader types is the problem. You should be able to develop a guy who can play OF defense and OPS+ 70-90 to backup Buck for 750K instead of 4-7 mil. Keirsey may be that guy now, but his injuries held him up too long. If they have a glove only guy like MAT or Bader from the system all these years its not such a big deal to work to have Buxton healthy by the time the playoffs roll around and have him for that time of year.

I agree Kiersey could be that guy now but there is an even better solution on the horizon.   What if the develop an above average starter who can play corner or CF (Rodriguez)  who is a left-hand hitter with relatively equal splits?  Then, develop Buston's replacement (Jenkins) and move Buxton to a corner the last year of two of his contract.  Walner becomes a DH / 4th OFer or maybe he learns to play some 1B too.

I am pulling hard for Rodriquez because he would perfectly and end the need for a MAT / Bader type player or at least minimize their role.

[chpettit19]

24 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I agree Kiersey could be that guy now but there is an even better solution on the horizon.   What if the develop an above average starter who can play corner or CF (Rodriguez)  who is a left-hand hitter with relatively equal splits?  Then, develop Buston's replacement (Jenkins) and move Buxton to a corner the last year of two of his contract.  Walner becomes a DH / 4th OFer or maybe he learns to play some 1B too.

I am pulling hard for Rodriquez because he would perfectly and end the need for a MAT / Bader type player or at least minimize their role.

For sure. He, unfortunately, has his own injury concerns, but Emma, Jenkins, Keaschal are possible answers. I think many of us agree that development is the answer to almost every question. You can pay Correa 30+, Pablo 20+, Buxton 15+, and all the other guys their arb numbers if you're developing behind them. It's not easy and you're not going to hit on anywhere close to 100%, but you have to be able to hit at a better rate than they have.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

For sure. He, unfortunately, has his own injury concerns, but Emma, Jenkins, Keaschal are possible answers. I think many of us agree that development is the answer to almost every question. You can pay Correa 30+, Pablo 20+, Buxton 15+, and all the other guys their arb numbers if you're developing behind them. It's not easy and you're not going to hit on anywhere close to 100%, but you have to be able to hit at a better rate than they have.

Good post as always. I understand that this thread is about 2025 and not 2026 but let's take a look at 2026. 

Odds are that the Twins will lose the following players due to contract expiration:

Vazquez, Bader, Paddack, Coulombe, Topa, France, Castro

If you add in the 5 million less that Correa will make in 2026. That is about 38.6 million coming off the Books but it also means 7 replacements will be needed: 1 starter, 2 bullpen arms, 1 Catcher, 1 1B, 1 OF and 1 Super Utility Position player. 

I don't how much of that will be in eaten up in Arb Raises but with 12 players due raises, 30 million may be a fair guess. 

If Pay Roll is to remain the same. That leaves around 8 million to fill those 7 spaces.  

This is of course without any assumption that a new owner will be in place and any assumption that a new owner is going to raise payroll. It's not unreasonable to expect a honeymoon bump from a new owner but I don't know that you can plan for a new owner being in place or willingness to bump payroll. 

8 million to fill those 7 spaces. That means without a shadow of a doubt that we will need development to fill the majority of those spaces.

Those guys on the farm... are critical. 

Might as well get started on the development thing because if we don't... We are trading Lopez, Ober, Ryan or Duran just to free up extra money so we can sign Bader or France level types to fill some of those open spaces.  

 

 

[mluebker]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

And, again, ROYCE LEWIS MAKES 1.625 MILLION. That is not "full-time salary" no matter how many times you want to say it. And Buxton's 15 mil is not "full-time salary" either. A player of his talent level being paid a "full-time salary" gets paid over 30 mil. He's getting paid a "part-time salary." Sorry to break it to you.

Thank heaven salaries aren't based on perceived potential, but performance.

I don't see Buxton as worth the $15 million he's getting, given his inability to be in the line-up when they need him. But I can buy your implicit argument that Royce Lewis is being paid to be a part-timer and is still cheap. It clearly became evident early on how injury-prone he is, so the front office didn't offer him a big, multi-year contract based on the potential he had when he was drafted and they can continue paying him based on his actual performance. Maybe they learned something from Buxton and, to a lesser extent, Joe "bilateral leg weakness" Mauer.

Maybe the Twins are working toward a model where they have a platoon at every position, so that talented, but unreliable guys like Buxton and Lewis make sense. I'd rather see a clear and reliable starter at every position and a less uncertainty about who's going to be on the field every day. It's pretty clear that the team isn't winning pennants or championships with part-time stars and average (or worse) replacements for them when star inevitably go on the IL.

[mluebker]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Yes, "occasional star-quality performances" are enough to win a championship.

Okay, let me know when that happens for the Twins.

[chpettit19]

15 minutes ago, mluebker said:

Okay, let me know when that happens for the Twins.

Let me know when you come up with a plan for a championship team that doesn't include stars for the Twins or any team.

[mluebker]

20 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Let me know when you come up with a plan for a championship team that doesn't include stars for the Twins or any team.

Someone else is getting paid for that. I'm just a fan with an opinion about how that someone else is doing.

Just out of curiosity, do you have any idea what the cumulative stats were last year for all the guys who played at 3B, SS. and CF? It would be interesting to know whether the total production for each of those positions reflected the presence of the part-time star-quality players, or something less.

[chpettit19]

12 minutes ago, mluebker said:

Someone else is getting paid for that. I'm just a fan with an opinion about how that someone else is doing.

Just out of curiosity, do you have any idea what the cumulative stats were last year for all the guys who played at 3B, SS. and CF? It would be interesting to know whether the total production for each of those positions reflected the presence of the part-time star-quality players, or something less.

Easy to say they're doing their jobs poorly and they should get rid of these guys but not so easy to come up with a better answer on what they should be doing, huh?

3B: .254/.320/.410/.730 wRC+ 108- tied for 10th best in baseball
SS: .283/.350/.459/.809 wRC+ 129- 4th best in baseball
CF: .263/.321/.465/.786 wRC+ 122- 3rd best in baseball

[Mike Sixel]

6 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Fine. Cut them. Trade them. Now you have $17 million and only need one starting 3B and CF. Find even remotely as much talent as Buxton and Lewis for $17 million to build your team with. Good luck with that. Not a lot of starting level guys out there for 8.5 mil. Harrison Bader doing it for you?

It sucks they can't stay healthy. But you need stars if you want to win at a high level. They're stars. You need them. So you need to develop talent behind them to get you through the times they're down and hope they're healthy for the postseason and you can go on a run. Or you can get rid of them and give up all hope.

I didn't say either of those. Please. But can you at least acknowledge the difficulty of managing a roster with these two on it? But they have Bader precisely because of Buxton. Just like they had the two other guys the previous two years. How'd that work? You have to pay someone 8 million to backup Buxton for three years.... It's a difficult situation. No one wants Emma up here rarely playing, so you sign a veteran, so you sign a veteran..

I don't have a good answer, I'm saying there likely isn't one.

I'm actually confident one of Emma or Jenkins is that star to replace Buxton. 

[chpettit19]

3 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I didn't say either of those. Please. But can you at least acknowledge the difficulty of managing a roster with these two on it? But they have Bader precisely because of Buxton. Just like they had the two other guys the previous two years. How'd that work?

I'm actually confident one of Emma or Jenkins is that star to replace Buxton. 

Sure, there's difficulty in managing a roster with injury prone players. But there's even more difficulty in managing a roster with less talent. No, they have Bader precisely because they can't develop their own average at best, all glove, no bat players for league minimum. Even if Buxton played 150 games a year this front office would bring in right-handed veteran outfielders. Kyle Garlick and Jordan Luplow weren't here because of Byron Buxton. Harrison Bader is going to start a whole bunch of games WITH Byron Buxton in the outfield. 

Stars that stay healthy are obviously better than stars that get hurt. But stars that get hurt are better than average players that stay healthy. And stars that get hurt that only make 15 mil a year are better than average players that also get hurt and make 6 mil a year. The Twins are better with Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis. The fact that it's even a discussion is mind blowing to me. The Twins have literally 0 chance of replacing their combined talent for $17 million. No chance at all. Any difficulty they bring in managing the roster because of their injuries is less than the difficulties in not having them. 

Emma and Jenkins are hopefully stars that will play WITH Buxton while he's healthy and without him while he's hurt. 

[TheLeviathan]

I guess I don't understand the last few pages.  Everyone deals with injuries and everyone has to fill out their roster with players outside their organization.  The Dodgers have had a stupidly good farm pipeline but have also gone outside their organization (frequently!) to backfill positions their farm didn't give them.  This idea you can be purely homegrown for all scenarios is just as silly as expecting the team to dump the injury prone stars for pennies.  It doesn't feel like either "side" of this conversation is giving the concerns of the other side a fair hearing.  The conclusion seems pretty simple to me, though not particularly attractive: unfortunate luck makes our roster construction what it is.  But it is what it is.  The alternatives are worse.

Buxton and Lewis getting hurt all the time is a real strain on roster construction.  It forces you to invest assets into players who you can't plan on playing full time but also have to be good enough to play full time in all likelihood.  That's a tough needle to thread.  But dumping them is worse.  So here we are. 

Is there a magical way out of that?  Probably not.  Does it change the problem?  Not really.  It's frustrating as a fan.  (And probably as a front office)  The loud implication lately is that the Twins have just failed to wave their Wand of Magical Prospect Farming and therefore failed to have a ready-made dude at AAA for all positions.  I'm being ridiculous, but that seems to be the counter-argument lately and it's just not grounded in reality at all.  I'd love it if it were true, but I'd also love it if Royce Lewis was a bionic human who was impervious to all harm.  I have just as much chance of Robo-Royce as the Twins do of having a viable Plan B at AAA for all contingencies.

Hopefully the pitching pipeline creates some trade possibilities going forward, but that has it's own risks and flaws.  It is what it is guys, unlucky and unfortunate as it may be.

[purplesoldier4u]

On 3/17/2025 at 8:35 AM, chpettit19 said:

Wait until you hear about pitchers hurting their arms throwing baseballs...

A completely different set of mechanics!

[mluebker]

On 3/18/2025 at 10:21 AM, chpettit19 said:

Easy to say they're doing their jobs poorly and they should get rid of these guys but not so easy to come up with a better answer on what they should be doing, huh?

3B: .254/.320/.410/.730 wRC+ 108- tied for 10th best in baseball
SS: .283/.350/.459/.809 wRC+ 129- 4th best in baseball
CF: .263/.321/.465/.786 wRC+ 122- 3rd best in baseball

Where are those stats from?

[chpettit19]

40 minutes ago, mluebker said:

Where are those stats from?

Fangraphs