Ranking the Twins' Bullpen Candidates

[John Bonnes]

The Twins' bullpen picture is becoming clearer, and it's a pretty portrait.

Image courtesy of © David Richard-Imagn Images

You’re going to have trouble convincing Minnesota Twins fans that their team’s bullpen is going to be the best in the American League. You’re also going to have trouble convincing them that they have so many good arms that their bullpen is crowded. 

The fans are probably right. Bullpen projections are the finickiest ones. Small samples reign. Plus, one gopher ball in the ninth can decimate an otherwise immaculate week. This story is not going to try to convince you otherwise. 

However, the Twins bullpen should be a team strength this year, at least compared to other teams in the American League. Also, while it is impossible to have too much pitching, the Twins entered spring training camp with at least ten candidates vying for eight spots. 

Now that we’ve seen all the candidates pitch at least an inning in a spring training game, going to list the ten ranked the way I would’ve ranked them coming into camp, along with whether they seem to be trending up or down.

#1. Griffin Jax - No Change
We’ve only seen 13 pitches from Griffin Jax this spring because the birth of his child delayed his first spring training appearance. But what we saw was in line with his velocity numbers last year. Maybe more telling is hearing other Twins pitchers name-drop him and his pitches with a certain reverence in their tone. They certainly seem impressed with what they’re seeing. The only reason he isn’t trending up is he couldn’t go much higher in my mind than he already was.

#2. Jhoan Duran - Trending Down (but maybe not as much as you might think)
The question isn’t whether Jhoan Duran 's velocity is down. It clearly is, though seeing him break 100 mph in his last outing was nice. The question is whether he can still be super effective. To his and the Twins’ credit, that seems to be what they’re primarily paying attention to, viewing the velocity reports as more of a distraction than anything.

(Which is a fair viewpoint. If it’s down, and there isn’t anything one can do about it, then paying attention to other aspects, like the shape of his pitches or the sequencing of them, is where one’s attention should probably be focused.)

3. Cole Sands - No Change
Cole Sands has made two spring training appearances, and they couldn’t been any different. In the first, he got knocked around, giving up three runs and not getting out of the inning. Nine days later, he struck out the side. The only concern is that we haven’t seen him touch last year’s average four-seam fastball velocity of 95.7 mph yet. He’s topped out at 95.2 mph. That’s a change from his last two offseasons, where his velocity has increased two mph over each of them.

4. Danny Coulombe -Trending Down
Danny Coulombe got a little late start to spring training games but has appeared in three games since March 1st. Unfortunately, only the latest one was at a ballpark with publicly available Statcast data, and even more unfortunately, it showed that almost all of his pitches were about two mph slower than their average velocity last year. They were also all variants of fastballs; no sliders or curveballs, which made up 40% of his pitch mix last year. It could just be that he’s working himself into shape after a late start to spring training. Plus, in those last two appearances, he didn’t give up any runs (though he also didn’t strike anyone out).

5. Justin Topa - Trending Down
Justin Topa left his last start with stiffness in his shoulder, though it isn’t clear that he won’t be available for Opening Day, or even that he won’t be available for another spring training appearance this week. But even before that, the velocity was down on his bread-and-butter pitches. 

6. Jorge Alcala - Trending Up
My “up” trend for Jorge Alcala feels a little biased due to overly low expectations. Because of how he finished last year, when he was pretty clearly gassed, I probably ranked him a little lower than I should have. He’s made two appearances this year, and both went well. His velocity is clearly there, though the control seems to be a work in progress. But he seems to be more of his first-half self than his second-half self this spring.

7. Brock Stewart - Trending Up
The best bullpen news of camp is that Brock Stewart has made an appearance, looked healthy, had his velocity, and is on a normal reliever protocol. If he can continue to stay healthy, he will improve the bullpen considerably. 

8. Michael Tonkin - Trending Down
Saturday’s injury news made clear what was already being wondered about: Michael Tonkin is dealing with an issue that could impact his ability to be available by Opening Day. That, along with a 13.50 ERA in three outings this spring, will move him to the bottom of the list.

9. Louis Varland - Trending Up
The biggest news about Louis Varland is that he’s clearly being prepared to work as a reliever versus a starter this spring, even if the team hasn’t officially announced it. As expected, his velocity out of the ‘pen is up on his four-seam and sinker, and it looks like he and the Twins are experimenting with which of his pitches he wants to rely on most in that role. Adjustments will need to be made with the change, but his potential impact on the bullpen could be huge. In his brief appearance in that role in the 2023 season, he recorded 17 strikeouts and just one walk over 12 innings. 

10. Eiberson Castellano - Trending Up
Don’t pay attention to Eiberson Castellano's 7.71 ERA; I assure you the Twins are not. As a Rule 5 pick, Castellano entered camp as a wild card. For the Twins to keep him, he needs to make the Opening Day roster and remain on the 26-man roster for the year. That usually means a player is trying out for a mop-up role, which involves showing he can throw strikes even under duress, and Castellano hasn’t been especially good at that so far.

But that might not matter. With a couple of injuries above him on the depth chart, a spot could be open. The Twins are going to have trouble letting go of a guy with a 96-mph four-seam fastball, a 96-mph sinker, a 90-mph changeup, and a curveball that received an “honorable mention” as the filthiest pitch in camp. They will find room, and if they need a mop-up man, they can find that elsewhere.

View full article

[ryan189]

no chance castellano makes the 26 man coming from AA walks to many

[thelanges5]

Castellano and Varland take the place of Tonkin and Topa for now. Once we work out a deal with the Phillies, Blewett can be added to the 40 man and Castellano goes back to MiLB. 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, thelanges5 said:

Castellano and Varland take the place of Tonkin and Topa for now. Once we work out a deal with the Phillies, Blewett can be added to the 40 man and Castellano goes back to MiLB. 

I'd say that is the optimistic scenario. The Phillies would have all the leverage, and given that he was their MiLB pitcher of the year last year, I don't think 'cash considerations' would be enough - it would have to be a reasonable prospect, 

 

[arby58]

1 hour ago, ryan189 said:

no chance castellano makes the 26 man coming from AA walks to many

Given the fact the Twins gave 9 MLB starts to Zebby Matthews after just 9 AA and 4 AAA starts, I'm not so sure. Yes, he walks a lot of batters, but he also strikes out a lot. In his 4 MiLB seasons, his WHIP is a not unreasonable 1.214. By contrast, David Festa's over 4 seasons of MiLB is 1.247. 

[DocBauer]

IF Duran's velocity is down for good, throwing 99-101 consistently is still amazing. And I agree that working on the shape of his pitches and sequencing can make a huge difference. I'm not expert, but maybe taking a mile or two off his other pitches works better with the slight drop in velocity off his FB? Isn't he also working on a 2 seamer this spring? 

I can't even describe how pleased and surprised I was by the development of Sands last season. He's an important part of the pen to be sure, but I would rank him below Stewart. As discussed in another recent OP, even 40 IP from Stewart would be fantastic. He's been outstanding when healthy. I think those 40 innings, used judiciously, would be fine. (We can cross fingers for up to 50 innings).

Coulombe might indeed be ramping up a little. And as stated, he hasn't even unleashed some of his secondary pitches yet. He was solid with the Twins and even better with the Orioles. He's not in the top 4, but he doesn't have to be. While he's not a LOOGY, he is "sort of" a specialist for this pen. I feel good about him unless he shows us a reason not to feel good. 

I've been a fan of Alcala for some time now. I really thought the Twins had something after his 2021 season. But then the injuries happened. But for the first half of 2024 plus, he was performing really well, even though I didn't like how he was being used. But after a full season in a couple years, I'd like to think he's ready for an even better, more consistent 2025. But he's still behind Jax, Duran, Stewart, and Sands at this point. I might have him tied with Coulombe at 5/6.

Because he's still transitioning to full time pen work, I've got to put Varland in the 7th spot. As a SP, his success and numbers were very good the first time through the order. I think his stuff plays up better in the pen, and I think he's a 2 IP option. Potentially, he's in the top 4-5 before the season is done.

Really disappointed in struggles and now injuries for Topa and Tonkin. I'm hoping the injuries are minor, of course. I really felt at least one of them would make the club and give the pen a rubber armed 2 IP guy who might even go consecutive days at times as bridge guys. But it's a long season, and each may still provide help.

I'm still torn on Castellano. I really don't want to carry a guy in the pen just because of potential. Sooner or later, you need EVERYONE to throw. And even the 8th guy is needed in a higher leverage spot once in a while. But having watched him twice now, the pure STUFF is real. You can see the potential. The first time I saw him he was hitting the zone OK. The second time, not so much. If the cost isn't too steep, I'd still rather work out a trade so he can be sent down. But even jumping from AA ball to the ML level, if he can just throw strikes at an acceptable rate, I can see him doing reasonably well with how good his stuff actually is.

Topa and Tonkin provide some depth if/when healthy. Tonkin is tricky as he doesn't have options. Funderburk can be nasty if he throws strikes. I think Blewett is a ML reliever, though more of a 7-8th man. ANY semblance of control could see Speas and Jensen helping out at some point. And I think Adams might end up in the pen as well, sooner rather than later, trying to follow the path Sands laid out. Who knows what Nowlin might look like come the 2nd half of the season, and there's a couple other arms floating around AAA that offer some experienced help here and there if needed. 

You always need guys to step up at some point, even if it's a couple games and send back down or DFA and re-signed again. Dobnak anyone? But if the pen doesn't suffer a radh of injuries, this could be a really good unit.

[ryan189]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Given the fact the Twins gave 9 MLB starts to Zebby Matthews after just 9 AA and 4 AAA starts, I'm not so sure. Yes, he walks a lot of batters, but he also strikes out a lot. In his 4 MiLB seasons, his WHIP is a not unreasonable 1.214. By contrast, David Festa's over 4 seasons of MiLB is 1.247. 

castellano is know where close to zebby he walked 7 people in almost double the innings you are not putting a guy in the majors and keep him there all year on a team with a good bullpen and he has thrown 40 innings in AA no knock on him but it just does not happen it's not his time yet

[arby58]

36 minutes ago, ryan189 said:

castellano is know where close to zebby he walked 7 people in almost double the innings you are not putting a guy in the majors and keep him there all year on a team with a good bullpen and he has thrown 40 innings in AA no knock on him but it just does not happen it's not his time yet

The Twins knew his minor league history when they selected him. He was the first Rule 5 draft pick they'd made since 2019 - I think your dismissal of him is too cavalier. Again, look at his MiLB WHIP compared to David Festa.

[nokomismod]

I know it's only been over two partial seasons, but can anyone recall a more dominate Twins reliever that Brock Stuart? I recall a game early in 2023 when he came in with the bases loaded extra innings and struck out the side. If his workload can be managed properly, the Twins would have an elite bullpen.

[Doctor Gast]

I agree with your trending.

Capt. Jax is the clear #1. Leave Duran in a closing role, he'll be fine. There's too much hype linked to Coloumbe I have him behind Alcala & Stewart. Varland has to be in the group on the active roster. IMO Castellano is a keeper, he is worth hiding in the BP, starting him out at mop up & see what happens. Tonkin has value as low-mid leverage inning eater but IMO, I'd trust our pipeline to supply our needs. IMO that leaves Tonkin & Topo off the 8-man active BP.

[old nurse]

12 hours ago, ryan189 said:

castellano is know where close to zebby he walked 7 people in almost double the innings you are not putting a guy in the majors and keep him there all year on a team with a good bullpen and he has thrown 40 innings in AA no knock on him but it just does not happen it's not his time yet

If the Twins FP thinks is potential is a top half of the rotation pitcher they are going to do what they have to do short of giving up a high ceiling prospect. 

[PatPfund]

@Doctor Gast pretty much wrote my post, but...

Rule 5 pitchers are often drafted from AA, because teams usually protect MLB-level SPs at AAA. Johan Santana was plucked from A ball, while Ryan Pressley was a Rule 5 from AA. Odds probably favor Castellano going back to Philly, but I thought the Twins were trending toward giving this a shot even before the Topa/Tonkin setbacks paved a clear path.

Pretty sure Topa starts the year on the MiLB IL, and Tonkin on the MLB IL. (The team will likely have to DFA Tonkin at some point for flexibility, but it saves money if they can get somebody to claim his guaranteed contract off of waivers when they do it, which won't happen while he is injured.)

[TopGunn#22]

Jax is the clear #1 because of his consistency.  No matter the situation, when Jax comes in fires get extinguished and good things flow for the Twins.

Duran is #2 only because he's wasn't as consistent as Jax last year.  His stuff is electric and if he only hits 101 on a radar gun as opposed to 104 that's not a big deal to me.  Better command and a better mix of his pitches is more important than winning the radar gun Olympics.  Rocco also needs to keep him in a purely CLOSER role.  I don't see Clase, Hadar, Edwin Diaz, Mason Miller or Devin Williams coming into a game in the 7th inning.  No matter how high the "leverage" of the situation is.  Make your closer the closer Rocco.

Sands is #3 because he's earned it.  Brock Stewart is #4 based on what he's done and how healthy he can stay.

Alcala and Varland are primed to have very effective seasons and are currently at slots #5 & #6.  They could move up if Stewart's health betrays him or if Sands slips a bit.  But those first 6 guys could be VERY GOOD.

I see Coulombe and Funderburk as the lefties slot in at #7 & #8 for me.  I think Coulombe will be steady and fine.  I still like Funderburk's stuff and potential.   

That leaves Castellano at #9 if he can cut that walk rate and this is where the questions line up for the guys that would slot in after here.  My long love affair with Matt Canterino seems to have finally come to an end.  I'll always wonder how good he could have been had he ever been able to get and stay, fully healthy.  

[jkcarew]

 

castellano is know where close to zebby he walked 7 people in almost double the innings you are not putting a guy in the majors and keep him there all year on a team with a good bullpen and he has thrown 40 innings in AA no knock on him but it just does not happen it's not his time yet

Johan Santana had never pitched above high-A, and was 2 years younger than Casellano. He spent the first two years struggling some….like you might expect from a bottom of the bullpen guy.

And then, he got better.

[amjgt]

I'm begging you to ask Aaron to go one episode without talking about Duran's velocity. 

100mph is the new normal. 

I know it. You know it. The twins know it. They shouldn't need to "confirm" it to anyone. It just is. 

 

His other recent obsession (the Twins.TV stuff), is much more justified though. But I'd ask that you two try to do what Phil Miller was attempting to have you do, which was calling it "Cable and Satellite."

Calling it "TV" is too vague, in my opinion, and can lead to confusion, since most people will probably be watching on their TVs regardless of if they are streaming or not. 

[ryan189]

18 hours ago, arby58 said:

The Twins knew his minor league history when they selected him. He was the first Rule 5 draft pick they'd made since 2019 - I think your dismissal of him is too cavalier. Again, look at his MiLB WHIP compared to David Festa.

another 3 walks today and dave festa threw more then 40 innings above  high A you act like the twins have a ton invested in castellano it cost them what a 100k for the pick and they get half back if he returns to them it's not like he was there high pick and have a couple million in him 

[arby58]

26 minutes ago, ryan189 said:

another 3 walks today and dave festa threw more then 40 innings above  high A you act like the twins have a ton invested in castellano it cost them what a 100k for the pick and they get half back if he returns to them it's not like he was there high pick and have a couple million in him 

Festa's A+ WHIP was 1.192; his AA WHIP was 1.363. Castellano's A+ WHIP was 1.232; his AA WHIP was 0.992.

[arby58]

16 hours ago, nokomismod said:

I know it's only been over two partial seasons, but can anyone recall a more dominate Twins reliever that Brock Stuart? I recall a game early in 2023 when he came in with the bases loaded extra innings and struck out the side. If his workload can be managed properly, the Twins would have an elite bullpen.

In 2023, I almost felt sorry for the batters he faced - so many looked completely overmatched. 

[ryan189]

3 hours ago, arby58 said:

Festa's A+ WHIP was 1.192; his AA WHIP was 1.363. Castellano's A+ WHIP was 1.232; his AA WHIP was 0.992.

only 40 innings a guy can have a good 3 weeks and festa didn't go to the bigs and stay there all year did he. so you are saying you want him in the twins bullpen all year one of the best in the league this is what you want?

[tony&rodney]

Castellano has looked really good .... once in a while. While i won't pretend to know what the Twins will do and I have only seen Castellano on 3 occasions, which is not enough time to make a solid judgment on him, Blewett looked better. I do think the Twins should make an attempt to work something out with Philly but carrying a guy who cannot throw strikes right now seems a little risky. I suppose it wouldn't hurt to keep Castellano until Tonkin is fully ready to return. I'll stay tuned.

Johan Santana comparisons are pretty wild.

[arby58]

8 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Johan Santana comparisons are pretty wild.

That is because you know how he ended up. Maybe look at his stats before the Twins rule 5'd him. The two years before the Twins selected him his numbers were pretty pedestrian. 1998, A- and A, it was ERA of 4.73 over 93 innings pitched, with 94 Ks and a 1.275 WHIP. In 1999, over A it was 4.66 ERA, 160 innings pitched, 150 Ks, and 1.353 WHIP. Those aren't super great numbers, but they were Johan's numbers.
 

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, ryan189 said:

only 40 innings a guy can have a good 3 weeks and festa didn't go to the bigs and stay there all year did he. so you are saying you want him in the twins bullpen all year one of the best in the league this is what you want?

What is with these extreme positions on Castellano? This false dilemma where the Twins have to decide whether or not to roster him today and if they do roster him, they're going to be required to keep him all year or use him as their closer.

It's like Castellano keeps leaving burning bags of excrement on doorsteps around town or something.

I don't care if Castellano is walking people right now. We don't even know how the Twins are having him pitch right now. Are they asking Castellano to throw pitches he needs to work on or are they trying to have Castellano locate pitches in certain spots. Spring Training, especially for young pitchers, is not generally about winning games or getting elite results; it's about getting into a mechanical rhythm and getting a feel for pitches. Pablo Lopez is walking 7.27 per 9 (15.3%) in Spring Training which is triple his rate last year. The staff will evaluate his stuff, his control and his command to determine where he might be able to be used.

[arby58]

10 hours ago, ryan189 said:

only 40 innings a guy can have a good 3 weeks and festa didn't go to the bigs and stay there all year did he. so you are saying you want him in the twins bullpen all year one of the best in the league this is what you want?

Festa's big league performance (which wasn't really all that great) isn't the point, it was comparing minor league WHIP at the two levels. A+ comparison is far more than 40 innings, right? As for 'what I want' - if he really is a 'steal' ala that pitcher who hadn't pitched above A ball and the Twins stashed  for basically two years, sure. Some people around here seem to think Tonkin, with a career 0.0 WAR is worthwhile because he can pitch multiple low leverage innings (which generally suggests the Twins are either well ahead or behind). If that's the case, I'd rather have this kid in that role than that old guy. 

[ryan189]

so like I said castellano was not making the squad

[DJL44]

13 minutes ago, ryan189 said:

so like I said castellano was not making the squad

Actually you said there was "no chance" he would make the roster. I think the Twins gave him every chance to make the roster.

We've already seen two bullpen decisions they might regret - cutting Ronny Henriquez and Brent Headrick to keep Eiberson Castellano and Matt Canterino. Henriquez and Headrick both appear to have made an MLB roster and the Twins won't get a single inning out of Castellano and Canterino.

[ryan189]

10 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Actually you said there was "no chance" he would make the roster. I think the Twins gave him every chance to make the roster.

We've already seen two bullpen decisions they might regret - cutting Ronny Henriquez and Brent Headrick to keep Eiberson Castellano and Matt Canterino. Henriquez and Headrick both appear to have made an MLB roster and the Twins won't get a single inning out of Castellano and Canterino.

nice play on words obviously they gave him a  chance he would not of been there he just was never going to make it  to big of a jump to quick.there other decisions are what they are you can always 2nd guess but canterino is filthy poor guy just can't stay healthy

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, ryan189 said:

he just was never going to make it  to big of a jump to quick

I am not big on absolutes. I wouldn't it is impossible to jump from Double-A to the majors because other pitchers have done it before. It's unlikely, but clearly the Twins saw something they liked in Castellano that they didn't see in Henriquez or Headrick. It's important for the front office to take risks if they're not going to compete on payroll alone.