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You’re going to have trouble convincing Minnesota Twins fans that their team’s bullpen is going to be the best in the American League. You’re also going to have trouble convincing them that they have so many good arms that their bullpen is crowded.
The fans are probably right. Bullpen projections are the finickiest ones. Small samples reign. Plus, one gopher ball in the ninth can decimate an otherwise immaculate week. This story is not going to try to convince you otherwise.
However, the Twins bullpen should be a team strength this year, at least compared to other teams in the American League. Also, while it is impossible to have too much pitching, the Twins entered spring training camp with at least ten candidates vying for eight spots.
Now that we’ve seen all the candidates pitch at least an inning in a spring training game, going to list the ten ranked the way I would’ve ranked them coming into camp, along with whether they seem to be trending up or down.
#1. Griffin Jax - No Change
We’ve only seen 13 pitches from Griffin Jax this spring because the birth of his child delayed his first spring training appearance. But what we saw was in line with his velocity numbers last year. Maybe more telling is hearing other Twins pitchers name-drop him and his pitches with a certain reverence in their tone. They certainly seem impressed with what they’re seeing. The only reason he isn’t trending up is he couldn’t go much higher in my mind than he already was.
#2. Jhoan Duran - Trending Down (but maybe not as much as you might think)
The question isn’t whether Jhoan Duran 's velocity is down. It clearly is, though seeing him break 100 mph in his last outing was nice. The question is whether he can still be super effective. To his and the Twins’ credit, that seems to be what they’re primarily paying attention to, viewing the velocity reports as more of a distraction than anything.
(Which is a fair viewpoint. If it’s down, and there isn’t anything one can do about it, then paying attention to other aspects, like the shape of his pitches or the sequencing of them, is where one’s attention should probably be focused.)
3. Cole Sands - No Change
Cole Sands has made two spring training appearances, and they couldn’t been any different. In the first, he got knocked around, giving up three runs and not getting out of the inning. Nine days later, he struck out the side. The only concern is that we haven’t seen him touch last year’s average four-seam fastball velocity of 95.7 mph yet. He’s topped out at 95.2 mph. That’s a change from his last two offseasons, where his velocity has increased two mph over each of them.
4. Danny Coulombe -Trending Down
Danny Coulombe got a little late start to spring training games but has appeared in three games since March 1st. Unfortunately, only the latest one was at a ballpark with publicly available Statcast data, and even more unfortunately, it showed that almost all of his pitches were about two mph slower than their average velocity last year. They were also all variants of fastballs; no sliders or curveballs, which made up 40% of his pitch mix last year. It could just be that he’s working himself into shape after a late start to spring training. Plus, in those last two appearances, he didn’t give up any runs (though he also didn’t strike anyone out).
5. Justin Topa - Trending Down
Justin Topa left his last start with stiffness in his shoulder, though it isn’t clear that he won’t be available for Opening Day, or even that he won’t be available for another spring training appearance this week. But even before that, the velocity was down on his bread-and-butter pitches.
6. Jorge Alcala - Trending Up
My “up” trend for Jorge Alcala feels a little biased due to overly low expectations. Because of how he finished last year, when he was pretty clearly gassed, I probably ranked him a little lower than I should have. He’s made two appearances this year, and both went well. His velocity is clearly there, though the control seems to be a work in progress. But he seems to be more of his first-half self than his second-half self this spring.
7. Brock Stewart - Trending Up
The best bullpen news of camp is that Brock Stewart has made an appearance, looked healthy, had his velocity, and is on a normal reliever protocol. If he can continue to stay healthy, he will improve the bullpen considerably.
8. Michael Tonkin - Trending Down
Saturday’s injury news made clear what was already being wondered about: Michael Tonkin is dealing with an issue that could impact his ability to be available by Opening Day. That, along with a 13.50 ERA in three outings this spring, will move him to the bottom of the list.
9. Louis Varland - Trending Up
The biggest news about Louis Varland is that he’s clearly being prepared to work as a reliever versus a starter this spring, even if the team hasn’t officially announced it. As expected, his velocity out of the ‘pen is up on his four-seam and sinker, and it looks like he and the Twins are experimenting with which of his pitches he wants to rely on most in that role. Adjustments will need to be made with the change, but his potential impact on the bullpen could be huge. In his brief appearance in that role in the 2023 season, he recorded 17 strikeouts and just one walk over 12 innings.
10. Eiberson Castellano - Trending Up
Don’t pay attention to Eiberson Castellano's 7.71 ERA; I assure you the Twins are not. As a Rule 5 pick, Castellano entered camp as a wild card. For the Twins to keep him, he needs to make the Opening Day roster and remain on the 26-man roster for the year. That usually means a player is trying out for a mop-up role, which involves showing he can throw strikes even under duress, and Castellano hasn’t been especially good at that so far.
But that might not matter. With a couple of injuries above him on the depth chart, a spot could be open. The Twins are going to have trouble letting go of a guy with a 96-mph four-seam fastball, a 96-mph sinker, a 90-mph changeup, and a curveball that received an “honorable mention” as the filthiest pitch in camp. They will find room, and if they need a mop-up man, they can find that elsewhere.
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