Risk and Reward: Twins Seeing Positive Returns on High School Arms

[Cody Christie]

Drafting high school pitchers comes with risk and reward. However, two of the Twins' top pitching prospects were drafted as high schoolers. How do these two young arms compare to each other?

Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (Raya) and William Parmeter (Soto)

The Minnesota Twins' current front office has favored college arms in the draft, but two notable exceptions stand out: Marco Raya and Charlee Soto. Both high school right-handers were drafted under the current regime, and their upside gives the organization two intriguing long-term options for the rotation. As the 2025 season approaches, it’s worth examining what these two talented arms bring to the table, their ceilings, and their potential pitfalls.

Marco Raya: Command and Stuff with a Developing Workload
When the Twins selected Raya in the fourth round of the pandemic-shortened 2020 Draft, they knew they were investing in a long-term development project. Injuries delayed his professional debut with a shoulder strain that wiped out his entire 2021 season. Since then, the organization has been deliberate with his innings, closely monitoring his workload while still allowing him to progress aggressively through the system. He pitched fewer than 130 innings from 2022 to 2023. Despite these limitations, Raya reached Triple-A St. Paul during his age-21 season by showing flashes of a high-upside starter.

Raya’s fastball sits around 96 mph with elite spin, and he commands it well up in the zone. His slider, which lives in the mid-80s, generates swings and misses and might be his best pitch. He also has a slower curveball to change hitters’ eye levels and an improving changeup that flashes plus. The latest addition to his arsenal is a cutter, which the Twins hope will continue his development as a complete starter. Last season, he posted a 4.05 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and a 24.6 K%. 

The most significant question mark for Raya remains durability. The stuff plays, and his ability to throw strikes has improved, but can he handle a full starter’s workload? If the Twins loosen the restrictions in 2025 and he holds up physically, he could be on a fast track to the big leagues.

Ceiling: Middle-to-top-of-the-rotation starter, potentially a No. 2 with improved durability.

Charlee Soto: Raw Power and High Upside
The Twins selected Soto 34th overall in the 2023 Draft, betting on his raw power and projection. Soto is an intimidating figure on the mound at 6-foot-3 and already boasts a fastball that reaches the upper-90s with life. He has introduced a mid-90s sinker, further diversifying his fastball profile. His slider, which has cutter-like action, is another weapon in his arsenal, while his changeup shows good fade and could become a legitimate third plus-pitch. 

Last season, he posted a 5.23 ERA with a 1.50 WHIP and a 26.4 K%. However, his numbers improved significantly in the second part of the year. From June 15 through September 4, he posted a 3.94 ERA while holding opponents to .292 SLG. Over his last 45 2/3 innings, he only allowed one home run and only faced younger batters in ten plate appearances. His changeup generated a 44.2 Whiff% and his four-seamer had a 33.5 Whiff%. 

Soto’s mechanics are relatively clean for someone his age, thanks partly to his athleticism as a former infielder. That athleticism should help him develop consistency in his delivery and, ultimately, his ability to throw strikes. However, he is still raw, and the Twins will be patient with his development, allowing him to refine his command and secondary pitches before accelerating his timeline.

Ceiling: Power No. 2 starter with a frontline arm if command and secondary pitches develop.

While both pitchers have high upside, they come with different risks. Raya is closer to the majors but must prove he can handle a full workload. Soto is further away but has some of the most electric raw stuff in the Twins’ system. If both reach their ceilings, they could anchor Minnesota’s rotation in the coming years, giving the team two high-upside arms in a system often reliant on polished college arms. The 2025 season will be pivotal in seeing how each pitcher progresses on their path to the big leagues.

Which pitcher has the higher ceiling? Who has the lower floor? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[old nurse]

Look at the trajectory of Ober. They higher out a way to increase the workload while still developing the pitcher at the major league level. The pitchers are no longer finished products when they hit the major leagues. Look at the paths of. Ryan, Oer and Skubal 

[old nurse]

Soto is promising. Wait a couple more levels before hyping.  In 2011 there was a hs pitcher taken 4th overall. A top 10 prospect in 2012. By 2022 he was the scourge of many fans here. He wasn’t the first nor the last hyped hs pitcher that was hyped and fizzled 

[Cornholio]

Definitely two to watch. I would add Dasan Hill to the list as well.

[Doctor Gast]

Twins had for a long time steered far away from drafting high on pitchers, especially HS. Let others develop pitchers & we'd trade bats for pitchers. But now MN seems confident in their development of their young pitchers. Wisely focus on taking them slowly, keeping them healthy & on the field so they maintain their development. Now drafting higher will revolutionize their pitching & off the old unathletic, big bat focus. Now they need to focus on drafting college catchers higher.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

Early on they went with a lot of college arms but since the start of the decade that has changed. 

2020 - Raya

2021 - Petty (traded for Sonny Gray- 2 years 7.8 WAR of performance and Kyle Debarge as a comp pick)  

2022- None  (took Priellip as the high upside pick) 

2023 - Soto and Questad

2024 - Dasan Hill   

In my opinion, the Twins have done incredibly well with their high school pitchers.  The Petty trade was phenomenal.  Even still Petty is a high upside pitcher (#8 in the Reds deep system).  Soto has the highest ceiling, and showed dramatic improvement throughout the year.  Soto is still primarily projection, but what he was showing at the end of the year was impressive.  It all depends when they are willing to let Raya let it fly and go deeper into innings.   Questad struggled in FCL, but they may have been working on things.  he was really a lottery pick in the 5th round for 500k.  Hill has as high as upside as anyone,  6'4" lanky frame,  velocity jumped last year to mid 90's.  Lots of spin but need some work and refinement on the secondary pitches.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

If you can effectively identify the right pitchers to take from the HS level, it’s fantastic, because you can get a player before someone else has a chance to grab them.  On the other hand, focusing on college age pitchers means that you are depending on them developing in college, which may or may not happen, or that they can be damaged goods once you get them (i.e. Rice).  One benefit of grabbing college level hurlers in the draft, however, is that they can (usually) get to the majors faster after you draft them.  

[Brandon]

With our rotation set for the next three seasons and 4 seasons from now we could still have SWR, Festa and possibly Matthews as developed starters that would give us almost 2 more years of likely rotation stability.  It makes sense to take a group of high school pitchers now to develop over time and soon college pitchers so that a large number of pitchers are ready when we start having holes in the rotation again. 

[tony&rodney]

Draft the best player available.

Trade to fill perceived holes.

[Ricky Vaughn]

Just a small bone to pick with the title. There are no positive returns until they get to the majors with good results.

[Blyleven2011]

I too would have added  chase petty into the conversation  even though he was traded , he was a twins high school draftee for a short time and is progressing up the system nicely with Cincinnati's minor league system  ...

[minman1982]

I would like to see another year out of Soto but it would appear that his ceiling is potentially pretty high. As with any under 20 year old pitcher, the floor is also pretty low. What we can expect from Soto probably ranges from a solid number 2 on the high end to he never touches a ball on an MLB team on the low end.

With Raya, I think the big concern is workload and durability. He probably has a lower ceiling as a result of this. I would think somewhere between MLB depth piece (a 4 or 5 guy in the rotation) to spot starter. His floor is considerably higher because I think his stuff will play at the major league level. A solid MLB reliever is probably his floor.

[twinstalker]

I'll put my money on Soto and against Raya.

[Doctor Gast]

15 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Draft the best player available.

Trade to fill perceived holes.

That has been their slogan. But unless their 1st round picks have been no-brainers like Lewis, Lee & Jenkins, their best player evaluations have been unathletic big college bats. Thus plugging the system with 1B/ DH types. Twins tend not to trade their prospects which does not fill the holes to qualify this statement. Many of these draft selections have not worked out so instead of having a high surplus at 1B/DH to trade from we now have a hole.

[Taildragger8791]

16 hours ago, Brandon said:

With our rotation set for the next three seasons and 4 seasons from now we could still have SWR, Festa and possibly Matthews as developed starters that would give us almost 2 more years of likely rotation stability.  It makes sense to take a group of high school pitchers now to develop over time and soon college pitchers so that a large number of pitchers are ready when we start having holes in the rotation again. 

There’s no such thing as having a rotation set for 3-4 years. Guys get hurt, fall apart, or fail to develop at a pretty high rate. 

[TwinsDr2021]

42 minutes ago, Taildragger8791 said:

There’s no such thing as having a rotation set for 3-4 years. Guys get hurt, fall apart, or fail to develop at a pretty high rate. 

I would add there should be no way they allow the big three to just leave after 3 years, I am against extending them, so they might be slowly trading each one of them?

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

16 hours ago, Ricky Vaughn said:

Just a small bone to pick with the title. There are no positive returns until they get to the majors with good results.

Unless you trade one for 1 of the best pitchers in baseball-  get 7.8 WAR plus a compensation pick in the 2024 draft.  The Petty for Gray trade utilizing a high school pitcher created an extreme positive return for the organization.  

[gman]

5 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I would add there should be no way they allow the big three to just leave after 3 years, I am against extending them, so they might be slowly trading each one of them?

I hope we extend pitchers. Not for 6-8 years, but 3 or possibly 4, but no more.

[Brandon]

8 hours ago, Taildragger8791 said:

There’s no such thing as having a rotation set for 3-4 years. Guys get hurt, fall apart, or fail to develop at a pretty high rate. 

We have Ober, Ryan and Lopez under contract for the next three years.  SWR for 5 or 6 and Festa and Matthews for 6.  That is some  rotation stability for the next three seasons.  Yes someone can get hurt but we have people almost ready to step in their place.

[TwinsDr2021]

2 hours ago, gman said:

I hope we extend pitchers. Not for 6-8 years, but 3 or possibly 4, but no more.

There isn't much need need to extend pitchers on the wrong side of 30, IMO

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

There isn't much need need to extend pitchers on the wrong side of 30, IMO

New ownership may have a different view on contract extensions but I would expect that the POBO and/or GM would have some expertise or guidance for an owner on that front. Even Cohen (NYM) has not gone nuts with contracts and extensions and he certainly has the do-re-mi to do whatever he wants to with his money.

[chpettit19]

14 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

That has been their slogan. But unless their 1st round picks have been no-brainers like Lewis, Lee & Jenkins, their best player evaluations have been unathletic big college bats. Thus plugging the system with 1B/ DH types. Twins tend not to trade their prospects which does not fill the holes to qualify this statement. Many of these draft selections have not worked out so instead of having a high surplus at 1B/DH to trade from we now have a hole.

1st round picks under Falvey:

'17: Lewis, CB-A: Rooker
'18: Larnach
'19: Cavaco, CB-A: Wallner
'20: Sabato
'21: Petty, CB-A: Miller
'22: Lee
'23: Jenkins, CB-A: Soto
'24: Culpepper, Debarge

Sabato is the only "unathletic 1B/DH" pick they've made in the first or competitive balance A rounds. Rooker is not unathletic, but he's bad defensively, so I guess you can call it 2 out of 13 picks. They've drafted 6 shortstops, 3 OFers, and 2 pitchers. Your assessment of their top draft picks is wildly off.

[Doctor Gast]

32 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

1st round picks under Falvey:

'17: Lewis, CB-A: Rooker
'18: Larnach
'19: Cavaco, CB-A: Wallner
'20: Sabato
'21: Petty, CB-A: Miller
'22: Lee
'23: Jenkins, CB-A: Soto
'24: Culpepper, Debarge

Sabato is the only "unathletic 1B/DH" pick they've made in the first or competitive balance A rounds. Rooker is not unathletic, but he's bad defensively, so I guess you can call it 2 out of 13 picks. They've drafted 6 shortstops, 3 OFers, and 2 pitchers. Your assessment of their top draft picks is wildly off.

 

32 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

1st round picks under Falvey:

'17: Lewis, CB-A: Rooker
'18: Larnach
'19: Cavaco, CB-A: Wallner
'20: Sabato
'21: Petty, CB-A: Miller
'22: Lee
'23: Jenkins, CB-A: Soto
'24: Culpepper, Debarge

Sabato is the only "unathletic 1B/DH" pick they've made in the first or competitive balance A rounds. Rooker is not unathletic, but he's bad defensively, so I guess you can call it 2 out of 13 picks. They've drafted 6 shortstops, 3 OFers, and 2 pitchers. Your assessment of their top draft picks is wildly off.

You left out my exclusion of no-brainers: Lewis, Lee & Jenkins. Let me rephrase that to bat 1st players. That'd include Rooker, Larnach, Cavaco, Wallner & Sabato, that's not including 2nd round or foreign draft. Where they were drafted doesn't mean that's where they'll stick. Sano was drafted as a SS.

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Doctor Gast said:

 

You left out my exclusion of no-brainers: Lewis, Lee & Jenkins. Let me rephrase that to bat 1st players. That'd include Rooker, Larnach, Cavaco, Wallner & Sabato, that's not including 2nd round. Where they were drafted doesn't mean that's where they'll stick. Sano was drafted as a SS.

Lewis wasn't a no brainer. He wasn't at all the top prospect. Hunter Greene, MacKenzie Gore, Kyle Wright, and Brendan McKay were all pretty universally considered better options to go #1. Lewis was not a super well received pick that year because it was seen as him being just an under-slot deal to save money for later picks. Parada, Jung, Collier, and Neto were all reasonable picks at 8 in 2022. Turns out Neto would've likely been the better college SS to take. So, no, Lee wasn't a "no-brainer." They had options. Jenkins was the clear and obvious no brainer. Even your exclusions are inaccurate because only Jenkins was a "no-brainer." 

You want to include 2nd round? Fine. In order: Landon Leach (HS pitcher), Ryan Jeffers (college catcher), Matt Canterino (college pitcher), Alerick Soularie (college outfielder), Steve Hajjar (college pitcher), Tanner Schobel (actually comp-B pick, didn't have a 2nd rounder that year, but college shortstop), Luke Keaschall (college 2B), Billy Amick (college 3B). Amick is a bad defender so maybe you can count him? Otherwise there isn't a single "unathletic 1B/DH" type in there as Soularie, Schobel, and Keaschall were all athletic picks.

Of course where they were drafted doesn't mean that's where they'll stick, but your argument was that they drafted "unathletic 1B/DH" types. Short stops are not "unathletic 1B/DH" types. Almost every round 1 pick is bat driven. Bat is the priority that early in the draft because if you can't hit you won't make it to the majors. And Cavaco wasn't a bat 1st pick. He was an "athlete" pick. Literally the opposite of what you're claiming. So it was 4 out of 13 picks (if you add Larnach and the super athletic Wallner) that have, as you said, "plugged the system with 1B/DH types." Even though 2 of those guys are starting corner outfielders in the majors. And another is one of the best DHs in the league. So, yes, Rooker is a bat only player, but he's a star. And Wallner and Larnach are establishing themselves as above average hitters (maybe even a star hitter in Wallner). What a complete and utter disaster that has "plugged the system!"

Your claim was that since their 1B/DH guys failed they have a hole at 1B, but now you want to change it to "bat first guys" to try to exclude Larnach and Wallner even though they're actively filling needs on the MN Twins team. You didn't look up who they actually drafted and were wrong in your statements. It happens. Don't move the goalposts now. You were wrong about who the Twins draft early and even tried to change the narrative on Lewis' selection so that he wouldn't be counted and called Lee a no brainer even though there were plenty of other options that would've been taken just as well had they selected them.

[Doctor Gast]

7 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Of course where they were drafted doesn't mean that's where they'll stick, but your argument was that they drafted "unathletic 1B/DH" types. Short stops are not "unathletic 1B/DH" types. Almost every round 1 pick is bat driven. Bat is the priority that early in the draft because if you can't hit you won't make it to the majors. And Cavaco wasn't a bat 1st pick. He was an "athlete" pick. Literally the opposite of what you're claiming. 

Cavaco is a good example, he ended up at 1B & was later released. 

I admit that they have started to veer away from the bat & no-glove type the last couple of years. But that's no reason to excuse them from ignoring catchers in the draft & failing to use prospects to trade for them, which is the main point of my text, even though I didn't mention catching specifically.

[TwinsDr2021]

12 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

New ownership may have a different view on contract extensions but I would expect that the POBO and/or GM would have some expertise or guidance for an owner on that front. Even Cohen (NYM) has not gone nuts with contracts and extensions and he certainly has the do-re-mi to do whatever he wants to with his money.

Not sure what ownership has to do with this, are there a bunch of players, let alone starting pitchers getting contract extensions or buying out the last year or two of players the teams already controls beyond age 30?