Is the Minnesota Twins' Bullpen Philosophy Justified?

[Cody Pirkl]

The Twins have added very little to their bullpen again this winter and, in the last week, have watched division rivals make some potential impact additions to their relief corps. Are the Twins treating the bullpen the right way?

Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

All three of the other competitors have made impact additions to their bullpens in the last few days after each finishing above the Twins in the 2024 standings. The Twins rarely add relief pitching and certainly weren’t expected to do so this winter with a limited payroll. As the former basement dwellers of the AL Central improve their bullpens, are the Twins justified in standing pat?

The Royals and Tigers have built up to the point the Twins have been at for years now as hopeful division contenders. Unlike the Twins, both teams have taken some swings at free against over the last year or so and have begun adding to their bullpens after strong finishes to 2024. The Guardians have made a rare investment in their bullpen as well. It’s easy to feel like the Twins are being passed by, but there’s a case to be made that the bullpen isn’t the place for these AL Central teams to invest.

The American League Central has long been among the lowest-spending divisions in baseball, and that hasn’t changed in recent years. For as much as Twins fans bemoan their limited spending, Minnesota leads the division in payroll. All five teams want to spend as little as possible while being competitive. This reality compels all of the front offices to prioritize where they want to spend strictly. The Twins have made their beliefs about the bullpen well known, while it looks like some of their competitors have a different mindset.

The Twins may be taking it to the extreme, but it’s easy to argue that bullpen investments are some of the riskiest in baseball. Elite relievers collapse all the time for seemingly no reason, and impact arms always emerge out of nowhere. The Twins have seen plenty of this from Addison Reed and Jorge Lopez bottoming out immediately upon their acquisition. They also have success stories like those of Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart.

Acquisitions are always fun and exciting, and Cleveland, Detroit, and Kansas City fans should be pleased with their signings of Paul Sewald, Tommy Kahnle, and Carlos Estévez, respectively. Each can be an impact addition, and the difference between a playoff berth and watching the playoffs on television come October. There’s also a scenario where any of them significantly disappoint for different reasons, mainly because of the position they play. The argument could be made that that money could have been better spent elsewhere for teams that still have a lot of variance and somewhat limited payroll.

Signing relievers is not inherently bad, and an addition to the Twins bullpen would most certainly be welcome. The rest of the competitors are doing things right after making the playoffs last season. That said, the Twins still project to have one of the best bullpens in all of baseball for 2025, with Jhoan Duran as their highest-paid arm at just over $4m. In a perfect world, the Twins have the payroll space to make bullpen additions without concern. Unfortunately, we don’t live in that world, and it’s easy to argue that the front office having the bullpen at the bottom rung of the spending ladder is the right move.

Certainly, nobody is expected to look at division rivals spending on bullpen help and think, “What a foolish move to spend money on relievers,” but it is worth considering whether the Twins are justified in the lack of doing the same given the foundation they already have, their payroll restraints, and the volatility of the position.

Should the Twins be trying to keep up with the bullpen spending of teams like the Royals and Tigers? Is their philosophy on relief arms justified? Let us know below!

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[tony&rodney]

I thought we already had several articles which identified the Twins bullpen as the best in baseball. 

The bullpen looks good right now. If a big trade occurred with a team and the Twins were able to scoot off with a really decent arm that is on a reasonable salary as a part of the deal , sure add a guy.

Otherwise, we good.

[Doctor Gast]

We have players we can trade. I have high hopes on Preilipp but until that happens we need a high-leverage LHRP. I wanted the Twins to target AJ Puk early last offseason, this season MIA still has Nardi, he is my target this season.

[jmlease1]

I tend to agree with the Twins philosophy on bullpen building; too many of these veteran bullpen guys are fungible and throwing $7M at a guy when it's a flip of a coin whether they're be great, average, or awful isn't the best use of limited resources. I think other teams think about it the same way: better to develop relievers internally or acquire them when they're cheap & controllable to see who can get it done 2-3 seasons in a row and either trade them as they get too expensive or sign them for their prime seasons when you already know they're more dependable.

A strong bullpen is important, but can be built without needing to invest substantial FA $. Cleveland did it that way: they had an incredible season from their bullpen (especially remarkable for how healthy the top guys were) but of their top 4 Clase was acquired via trade when he was cost-controlled and Smith, Gaddis, and Herron were all drafted/signed by Cleveland and came up through their system. Maybe they've guessed right on Sewald, but is he actually going to be any better than Avila (who was sent down to make room for him)? is $7M for Sewald going to get you substantially better results than Tonkin for $1M?

Much rather develop relievers from within than chase guys like Colome or Robles and hope they you catch them on the right year with the right small sample.

[High heat]

I think there philosophical works as long as they keep developing pitchers and flipping those who don’t cut it as starters into relievers by adding velo.  
 

I think guys like Varland and Morris and maybe even Hendricks will be successful relievers once fully converted into the relief role.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think it's important to spend some money on bullpen arms if you don't have enough good bullpen arms.  Right now, I think the Twins are in a pretty good spot -- it's one of the reasons I'm glad Jax is staying in the pen.  Certainly every good bullpen is just an injury or two away from mediocrity, but I think that any extra money they find under their pillow would be better spent on a bat somewhere. 

So. . . yes, I believe their bullpen philosophy is justified -- at least with this current group of players.

[mikelink45]

Just like last year we brag about our BP, but I have not seen it as elite.  The list of cast offs and low leverage additions beyond those mentioned in the article are a list of disappointments - Okert, Jackson, Luplow, Joe Smith, ChI Chi Rodriquez, Juan Minaya, Charlie Barnes, John Gant, Andrew Albers, Edgar Garcia, Kyle Barraclough, Beau Burrows, Branden Waddell,  Edwar Colina, Matt Magill,  Sam Dyson and that is only 2024 - 2021

[Joe A. Preusser]

"The American League Central has long been among the lowest-spending divisions in baseball, and that hasn’t changed in recent years. For as much as Twins fans bemoan their limited spending, Minnesota leads the division in payroll. All five teams want to spend as little as possible while being competitive. This reality compels all of the front offices to prioritize where they want to spend strictly. The Twins have made their beliefs about the bullpen well known, while it looks like some of their competitors have a different mindset."

 

Excellent point here that will likely be glossed over by many readers.  I see this narrative that the Twins are cheap and are "severely constrained by payroll considerations" all over almost every article on Twins Daily.  How does this track when we led the Central Division in payroll last year and are way ahead going into 2025?

 

The truth (IMHO) is that right now 130 million dollars is plenty to field a championship caliber team as long as it is done intelligently.  Our on-field performance last year just didn't cut it overall. 

We have built a darn good bullpen that only looks to be better this year.  The fact that we did it for 12 million instead of 25 should be a crazy good feather in the FO's cap, not an opportunity to cry "CHEAP" yet again.  If everyone plays to their potential this is a very good team.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

Shameless plug, but I did a mini-analysis of bullpen spending last offseason: 

What the data shows is that these $5-$15M APY relievers don't move the needle at all. $10M is a heck of a lot of money to spend on your 3rd or 4th best reliever when the Twins don't have a 1B. What would have moved the needle would have been signing Tanner Scott, because that would have moved everyone else into lower leverage roles, and the data shows that bullpens with a member who makes more than $16M/yr are going to be good bullpens.

The data also shows that bullpen success is correlated with how deep starters pitch. Spending $10M-$15M on a veteran inning-eater (like Jose Quintana or Charlie Morton) for the bottom of the rotation will improve the bullpen more than signing Kenley Jansen or David Robertson

If you're concerned about bullpen depth, I'm certain that there will be plenty of cheap (both monetarily and trade comp) mid-leverage relievers available at the trade deadline. I'd much rather save that money for a first baseman or starter.

 

[Seth Stohs]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Just like last year we brag about our BP, but I have not seen it as elite.  The list of cast offs and low leverage additions beyond those mentioned in the article are a list of disappointments - Okert, Jackson, Luplow, Joe Smith, ChI Chi Rodriquez, Juan Minaya, Charlie Barnes, John Gant, Andrew Albers, Edgar Garcia, Kyle Barraclough, Beau Burrows, Branden Waddell,  Edwar Colina, Matt Magill,  Sam Dyson and that is only 2024 - 2021

None of those were big moves and none of them are that exciting. Andrew Albers is the one on the list that has had some really strong moments. Only two of these guys were MLB signings. Minor League signings are just for depth, and if they're more than that, that's a bonus. Minaya and Magill certainly had some good moments. Smith had a good six weeks or so. And, Barnes and Colina were Twins signings/picks who came up very briefly. 

[h2oface]

With the playoffs what they are now, to focus on comparing your team to the division is folly. You are compared against the league, not the division. 

When the bullpen pitches, usually, at least 4 innings a game these days, to think that your bullpen is an aside is why you don't win games in the playoffs, or get to the playoffs.” Relievers accounted for 394 1/3 of the 760 innings thrown in the postseason last year, “ (Well, that and swinging for the fences no matter what, and not swinging at good pitches in the zone and swinging at pitches not even close, and playing horrible defense, running bases poorly, and.......  Scoring runs with situational hitting also helps, eh?)

They sure didn't look anything close to the best pen in MLB in August and September, and they are the same guys except for Thielbar, who was cooked all year, (and in spring training). 

May as well go with what you got now though, because they don't spend on anything the last two years, anyway. 

[h2oface]

2 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

None of those were big moves and none of them are that exciting. Andrew Albers is the one on the list that has had some really strong moments. Only two of these guys were MLB signings. Minor League signings are just for depth, and if they're more than that, that's a bonus. Minaya and Magill certainly had some good moments. Smith had a good six weeks or so. And, Barnes and Colina were Twins signings/picks who came up very briefly. 

Exactly. I read that as the main point of the post, without spelling it out as you boldly did.

[saviking]

12 minutes ago, h2oface said:

Exactly. I read that as the main point of the post, without spelling it out as you boldly did.

On a side note the article said the AL North Division is known for not spending much money. I hate the MLB salary structure where big market teams can outstanding small market team but it just dawned on me at least the other teams in our division don't have a lot of money to spend. So it's very fair in regards to winning our division. 

[Mark G]

9 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Shameless plug, but I did a mini-analysis of bullpen spending last offseason: 

What the data shows is that these $5-$15M APY relievers don't move the needle at all. $10M is a heck of a lot of money to spend on your 3rd or 4th best reliever when the Twins don't have a 1B. What would have moved the needle would have been signing Tanner Scott, because that would have moved everyone else into lower leverage roles, and the data shows that bullpens with a member who makes more than $16M/yr are going to be good bullpens.

The data also shows that bullpen success is correlated with how deep starters pitch. Spending $10M-$15M on a veteran inning-eater (like Jose Quintana or Charlie Morton) for the bottom of the rotation will improve the bullpen more than signing Kenley Jansen or David Robertson

If you're concerned about bullpen depth, I'm certain that there will be plenty of cheap (both monetarily and trade comp) mid-leverage relievers available at the trade deadline. I'd much rather save that money for a first baseman or starter.

 

I concur completely when it comes to the starters going deeper and not relying on the pen as much as some teams do.  I have always been a staunch believer in carrying a long reliever; someone who could relieve a starter who is getting thrashed and keep the ball until the 7th or 8th inning, saving the rest of the pen to fight another day.  Or, as you said, get a back end starter with a rubber arm (not exactly the way you said it, was it?). 😉

[Whitey333]

Very good comments.  Well thought out and thought provoking.   The highest payroll in the division has always been interesting.  My contention is it's not the total payroll dollars, but how those dollars are allocated.  Spending half of your payroll on 3 players doesn't leave much room for improvements.  Also the notion that the Twins have the best bullpen in baseball is sheer nonsense.  Last year they led all of baseball in inherited runners scoring.  Meaning they couldn't put out the fire.  Isn't that what a good bullpen is for.  Keep in mind this team has missed the playoffs 3 of past 4 years during a so called open window.

[LambchoP]

I do think our pen is in a good spot, but that doesn't mean we couldn't upgrade. A solid LHRP would be nice. We also have a lot of candidates that could earn a spot in ST or throughout the year. Varland, Canterino, Prelipp, Headrick, Henriquez or any of our up and coming starting pitchers. Maybe guys like Adams, Raya, Culpeper or someone else gets their cup of coffee in the pen. You can never have too much pitching. I do think at least one addition would be helpful.

[gman]

"If" Paddack is moved to the pen, that would increase the amount spent on the bullpen from $12mil to $19mil. That more than 50% increase on the pen should put in right there with the best in baseball.

[Trilla]

I would not say the pen as it currently looks is one of the best, but it's not crap either. Depth is an issue and the way this team ...how can I say this, keeps players healthy is absolutely horrible. Its way past the point where injuries are bad luck. There is something wrong from the top down. I don't think they know what they are doing. Maybe it's best they sit on their hands all winter because if you don't do anything, you can't be accused of screwing anything up. if I'm selling the team why the hell do I give a damn what the payroll is? Falvey is either lazy, or just stupid. The new owners are going to fire him anyway.

[Doctor Gast]

On 2/1/2025 at 5:04 AM, Mark G said:

I concur completely when it comes to the starters going deeper and not relying on the pen as much as some teams do.  I have always been a staunch believer in carrying a long reliever; someone who could relieve a starter who is getting thrashed and keep the ball until the 7th or 8th inning, saving the rest of the pen to fight another day.  Or, as you said, get a back end starter with a rubber arm (not exactly the way you said it, was it?). 😉

I'm also a staunch believer in long relief. Too many times as far as I can remember, one of the biggest if not the biggest problem is the BP burning out which in turn burns out the rotation going into the home stretch & into the postseason. Last season Baldelli said he wanted to implement long relief. But his idea of long relief is extending RPs like Alcala from 1 to 2 innings. That's not my idea of long relief. My idea is going 3-4 innings to really help the pen. IMO Castellano will fit into this category as a mop-up guy. I'm not sure if Castellano would develop into anything more than that (I don't want to put that kind of pressure on him, which hasn't worked out in the past), so I'd like a bonafide long RP that can go in with games on the line to save the BP.