The Top 20 Minnesota Twins Player Assets of 2025: Part 3 (6-10)

[NYCTK]

38 minutes ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Overall I agree with your comments here except the bolded part.  He had his ankle issue in the minors several years ago and had it repaired.  Since then, he's not had one issue with it and the PF foot issues the last few years are totally unrelated.  The Giants and Mets were using it as a negotiation tactic to get his cost down.  When can we move on from this?  IMO, if the ankle problem has not reared its ugly head in many years, it probably won't in the future.

No, no, no.

There is zero evidence of that. If that were the case, the Giants or Mets would have been satisfied with his eventual contract signing. 

Giants: 13 year agreement

Mets: 12 year agreement 

Twins: settles for 6 years

 

[Doctor Gast]

2 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Payton Eeles is 15 months older than Brooks Lee. Lee will play this year as a 24 year old and Eeles at 25. Eeles has similar numbers at AAA to Lee but Payton has more speed. An argument could be made that Eeles was much better in his first go at AAA than Lee. I wonder whether Eeles will get a shot in the Twins organization. He only received a bus ticket (Lee was #1 draft choice, #8 overall for $5.675M) for a bonus so the team has nothing financial tied to him. I feel Lee is a really good prospect still and I do not question his potential, but somehow what Eeles did last year has been overlooked. Is a .419 OBP and a .919 OPS from a guy who doesn't strike out much, runs well, and seems to have a decent glove noteworthy? What is wrong with Eeles?

I really like Eeles & have followed him since he joined the Twins. I'd rather give Eeles a chance, than pick up these fringe players & give them priority.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I'm in full agreement on Eeles. Let's hope he gets a legitimate chance and that Gasper and Ford aren't given the advantage for the sole reason of they are veterans.

[tony&rodney]

40 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If the Twins solution to problems is 25 year old rookies or older they are in worse shape than I thought.

Royce Lewis is going to play the bulk of this year as a 25 year old. Royce has 605 plate appearances, one year really.  I am not comparing them, but I'm not as fixated on age for every roster spot as some. We don't know how these indy ball guys will turn out. Sometimes guys are overlooked. In the case of McCusker he is a big dude and has taken time to get his swing together. All I'm hoping for is that these guys get a fair look. When a player has shown worth in AAA, we can forget draft status and bonus money bias. No scholarships. Eeles and McCusker need to earn their way, so should others. The solution is to play those who perform.

[chpettit19]

50 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

No, no, no.

There is zero evidence of that. If that were the case, the Giants or Mets would have been satisfied with his eventual contract signing. 

Giants: 13 year agreement

Mets: 12 year agreement 

Twins: settles for 6 years

 

The Mets offered Correa a follow-up deal that included an "exclusion clause" that voided future years if he spent a specific number of days on the IL due to an injury to his ankle. They also offered him a 6 year deal. They did negotiate around the ankle and the Mets were ok with the 6 year terms. 157 million were the rumors on the guaranteed money. With 6 options years on the end. They wanted to do physicals on him after the last 6 years, though. So, yes, there was some evidence.

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Nick Nelson said:

This seems pretty speculative. My understanding is that both teams were concerned about the long-term outlook for his ankle which scared them away from doing a 10-year deal. Referring to it as a "negotiation  tactic" seems inaccurate given that both teams already had publicly announced agreements in place that were scuttled. This kind of thing NEVER happens. But I hope you're right!

Not to mention Correa's response to the Giants, which was to cut off all communication, would have made it awfully clear to the Mets the "negotiation tactic" wouldn't work. Ultimately, I don't think any team would be terribly concerned about Correa's health on a 4 year contract which will start rapidly dropping in cost in 2026.

I suspect many teams would be interested in Correa if the Twins were willing to eat $5-10MM off the contract in the next 2 years.

[Brandon]

I think a fun exercise is for Twinsdaily. To build a formula that determines value taking into effect all things adding and subtracting value to the team like contract, attitude, offense, defense, starting pitcher , control, walks (both hitters and pitchers), revenue generators and more then we can use that formula to create a top 20 list and compare it to the lists we create and maybe Nick Nelson who created this concept can present it at the SABR convention some year.  
 

As for the list so far.  It’s as I expected.  Nitpicking….. one question is how much of a drag is Correas contract to his value?  Is Larnarch really more valuable than Jeffers?  Who were the other top options at 20 cause I’m wondering if I put someone other than Julien there at this time? It’s Wallner time! With power hitters I use 1 XBH per 10 AB as a standard metric.  Wallner has 62 in 490 AB which is a high number over 1.2 XBH per 10 ABs.  
 

And Nick hasn’t even finished the countdown yet.  Looking forward to it. 

[NYCTK]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

The Mets offered Correa a follow-up deal that included an "exclusion clause" that voided future years if he spent a specific number of days on the IL due to an injury to his ankle. They also offered him a 6 year deal. They did negotiate around the ankle and the Mets were ok with the 6 year terms. 157 million were the rumors on the guaranteed money. With 6 options years on the end. They wanted to do physicals on him after the last 6 years, though. So, yes, there was some evidence.

No. There's absolutely no evidence the Mets (and Giants) agreed to a 12+ year deal with Correa hoping his physical came back poorly so they could use it as a negotiating tactic. That's the claim. Not the idea that Correa's bad health nullified the agreement already in place and that they tried to still work something out. 

[chpettit19]

2 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

No. There's absolutely no evidence the Mets (and Giants) agreed to a 12+ year deal with Correa hoping his physical came back poorly so they could use it as a negotiating tactic. That's the claim. Not the idea that Correa's bad health nullified the agreement already in place and that they tried to still work something out. 

Oh, yeah, I don't think they went into it planning to fail his physical and use that as a negotiating tactic. I guess I didn't read that comment that way, but if that's the claim I don't agree. But the Mets did try negotiating off the failed physical.

[arby58]

5 hours ago, Tjwalsh65 said:

Buxton was left off last year and will likely be left off again.   

If that is the case, I don't get it. I understood it last year - he was coming off a season where he only DHd and had a 0.8 WAR. Last year, though, he played excellent CF and put up a 3.6 WAR - second on the team to Correa's 3.7. 

If Julien was on another team, would you trade him straight up for Buxton, even with the significant payroll savings? I wouldn't - and I bet no team would.

[Nick Nelson]

1 hour ago, Brandon said:

As for the list so far.  It’s as I expected.  Nitpicking….. one question is how much of a drag is Correas contract to his value?  Is Larnarch really more valuable than Jeffers?  Who were the other top options at 20 cause I’m wondering if I put someone other than Julien there at this time? It’s Wallner time! With power hitters I use 1 XBH per 10 AB as a standard metric.  Wallner has 62 in 490 AB which is a high number over 1.2 XBH per 10 ABs.  

I don't consider this nitpicking! Good Q's. I'll riff a little on each because I enjoy unpacking the thought process. It becomes clear to me as I put this list together, and especially as I see the feedback, how subjective a lot of it is. But here are my takes.

Correa's contract: Yes, a big drag in these rankings. I don't consider Correa or Buxton negative assets (as I did with, say, Donaldson), but more as kind of neutral assets. You're paying for the upside and potential game-changing impact, but you're accounting for the risk, age and physical wear-and-tear.

These rankings are meant to be assessed through the scope of team-building, and while there's no salary cap, I'm thinking in terms of a $130 budget. As excited as I am about what they bring to the table right now, the Twins are on the hook with these two injury-prone players in their 30s, who will probably have to move off SS/CF soon, for almost $200 million through 2028. How does the lost opportunity cost factor there, even in terms of simply being able to retain your own players, i.e. Royce?

Larnach vs. Jeffers: I'm super high on Larnach. Higher than most, it seems. IMO the talent has always been evident and we finally started to see it start to flourish. His dramatic K reduction seems like such a convincing declaration of staying power. I think he figured it out, and I think he'll look better defensively next year if his toe is healthy.

Still a believer in Jeffers -- so rare to find a capable catcher with that kind of offensive punch -- but man was last season discouraging. I ended up knocking him down a few spots last-minute; he was originally ahead of Larnach and some others.

Near-misses on the list: I might write up a recap article with some overall trends and thoughts on the list, including the "just missed" and honorable mentions. Other names I was considering at the back end include a bunch of prospects, as well as Austin Martin, Louie Varland, Willi Castro. Honestly I was quite close to including Buxton and still wonder if I should have, despite all the points mentioned above. He looked so good last year and this is the most optimistic I've felt about his health in a long time,

[Blyleven2011]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Wallner had an OPS+ of 149 even with the terrible start. wRC+ of 155. Larnach was 116 OPS+. 121 wRC+. Neither is a great defender or base runner so I can't believe your separator was either of those things. Wallner pretty clearly had the far superior offensive season, albeit in significantly fewer games. He tied Correa and Gunnar Henderson for 10th best wRC+ in baseball amongst hitters with at least 200 PAs.

I hear ya , I should have mentioned  larnach adjusted better , started hitting off speed pitchers and cut down his strikeouts ...

Wallner is who he is , hits the ball extremely hard and far when he connects  , but strikeout are way to high , needs discipline in the box ...

I'll take larnach over wallner to have a longer career  , I'm not always right   ...

[D.C Twins]

10 hours ago, arby58 said:

I always find it hard to comment on these lists until you see the whole 20. Thinking about the last 5, I assume it is some combination of Jenkins, Lewis, Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and Buxton - except that is 6. If one of those 6 is left off (I assume either Ober or Buxton), it's going to be hard for me to accept that, say, Julien is more valuable than either of those two as an asset.

Buxton off the list...

[D.C Twins]

"the Twins are on the hook with these two injury-prone players in their 30s, who will probably have to move off SS/CF soon, for almost $200 million through 2028."

(wincing) yes....yes we are.... and I can hear the hubcaps coming off both of them already from all the way over here on the East coast 

[RpR]

9 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

If you traded Correa, would you get much more than salary relief? I don't think so, which is why they are (hopefully) not seriously considering it. As others have noted, the field of teams that would even be capable of acquiring him is quite small. 

Is Correa the best player in the organization right now? Yes. Is he the most individually critical to their chances in 2025? Probably. But in this exercise I'm trying hard to weigh risk and downside as part of the equation. 

Through an asset evaluation lens: The Twins signed Correa for market value as a free agent in 2023. Since then, in the two years of the contract where he was supposed to be most valuable, he had his worst season ever and then missed half a season. Multiple major foot injuries have cast serious doubt on his durability going forward. He's suddenly now in his 30s and the ankle issue that cratered two contract agreements still looms. The same things apply to Buxton to some degree, and I say this as someone who is personally a huge fan of both players. They're just super volatile, high-risk assets at this moment.

Unless they do some sort of Bozo the Clown trade scenario, the Twins have No one to play short stop with out Correa, that is on his best day a butt cliching , fingers crossed player for skill.

[arby58]

11 minutes ago, D.C Twins said:

Buxton off the list...

Second on the team in WAR last year and is not one of their 20 most valuable assets? Hard to figure.

[RpR]

4 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Second on the team in WAR last year and is not one of their 20 most valuable assets? Hard to figure.

Bias, but it is his show not the end of the world.

[DocBauer]

11 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Payton Eeles is 15 months older than Brooks Lee. Lee will play this year as a 24 year old and Eeles at 25. Eeles has similar numbers at AAA to Lee but Payton has more speed. An argument could be made that Eeles was much better in his first go at AAA than Lee. I wonder whether Eeles will get a shot in the Twins organization. He only received a bus ticket (Lee was #1 draft choice, #8 overall for $5.675M) for a bonus so the team has nothing financial tied to him. I feel Lee is a really good prospect still and I do not question his potential, but somehow what Eeles did last year has been overlooked. Is a .419 OBP and a .919 OPS from a guy who doesn't strike out much, runs well, and seems to have a decent glove noteworthy? What is wrong with Eeles?

I'm with you 100% on Eeles. I GET that he's a bit of a flier from the Independent leagues and has ONE season in the Twins system. And it might just be ONE single season, magical ride and a good story for an underdog who got a chance. 

BUT, we're talking about a kid who RAKED in college at a lower level, and then RAKED as a 5th year senior at a well respected program. I think it's obvious his physical stature and a single season at a top program kept him from being drafted. Kudos to the Twins scouting department for finding him in the first place.

ONE season probably should keep him out of the top prospect listings. I get that. But IMO you just DON'T ignore what's right in front of you in regard to a prospect. And it's my one major complaint with our FO, placing too much emphasis on ML Veteran status and accepting poor production vs giving a younger player, maybe a late bloomer or surprise player, a real shot.

Were I in charge, I'd have BOTH Eeles and McCusker in ST as non roster invites as more than a cursory invite. I want to see if McCusker MIGHT be a late blooming bat that might help in the future. I have my doubts, but he's done well, grown, and done well. Is it at all possible he might be a ML player?

But good story or not, Eeles wasn't just good, he was DOMINATE at every level, including AAA. He might be short, but he isn't small. He's got some speed, some life in his bat, a good eye. And he's reportedly a hard worker. I understand "show me twice" considering being undrafted. But the FO is just wrong if they don't give him a good look in ST.

[TopGunn#22]

I find the Payton Eeles conversation and comparisons to Brooks Lee very interesting.  The key stat that jumps out to me regarding Eeles is the low strikeout rate.  It shows he's got a command of the strike zone and has a good bat to ball contact rate.  And that's a quality the Twins could use more of.

It's one of the reasons that I mentioned Eddie Julien would be a trade chip I'd be looking to cash in on if I had any say in the Twins FO.  Julien is already being talked about for a position change to 1B, yet the Twins just signed Ford for St. Paul.  How does that get Julien reps at 1B?  For a guy who was supposed to have a command of the strike zone, Julien struck out too much his first year but walked "just enough" to make it somewhat tolerable.  His 2024 season was one of the most messed up I've ever seen for any major league hitter.

His most current BBTV is listed at 16.5.  With Lewis, Lee, Castro, Eeles, Keaschall. Culpepper etc...his chances to remain at 2B seem slim in the Twins organization.  With Miranda, Lewis, now Ford and the possibility that Wallner or Larnach buys a 1B mitt in the near future, where does Julien fit on the Twins and even St. Paul?  

That 16.5 value is quite a drop form the 35 range value Julien had with BBTV after the 2023 season.  But I think 16.5 is about as high as you'd get for him right now.  Brooks Lee, if memory serves me, has had a BBTV around 30-40.  I don't have any problem with the Twins wanting Eeles to prove it again, maybe for an entire season at St. Paul.  But he's clearly better than Julien, and he's certainly worth the conversation/comparison with Lee.

It's kind of like when the Dodgers drafted Mike Piazza in the 40th round or so.  They had no idea he would blossom into the hitter and HOF catcher he became.  But they figured it out soon enough.  Imagine if Eeles and/or Keaschall turn out to be pretty good.  Julien has no future with the Twins.  We're already talking like Lee can't handle SS and will be a 3B/2B in the future.  What could the Twins bring back if they were willing to deal Lee and Julien within this 2025 season??

Reports are leaking out that the Twins sale could happen by or before OPENING DAY.  If that happens, the roster we have now will probably be very close to the roster we break camp with.  But come the trade deadline, when a large chunk of the season will have been played, the Twins are going to have a better understanding of where Eeles, Keaschall, Julien, Lee and Lewis are at.  And I could see the new owners being willing to make a BIG splash at the deadline if the Twins were in contention. 

I could imagine a trade of Julien before the end of spring training.  I could also imagine a trade of Brooks Lee by the deadline if Eeles and Keaschall are impressing at St. Paul making a promotion to the Twins possible.  I agree that an asset like Correa shouldn't be judged by what he could bring back in a trade, even though it should be pretty good.  But players like Julien, Lee, Lewis, Miranda, Jeffers, Wallner and Larnach absolutely need to have some of that trade value factored in.  This includes any "young" asset like Jenkins, E-Rod, Festa or SWR.    

[Road trip]

On 1/8/2025 at 7:59 AM, MinnInPa said:

i still think Lee will be all star caliber player... Rodriguez..ive never seen play..But Wallner IMO just K's way too often..will never be a reliable 3,4,5 hitter.... unless he starts hitting .280 + , 30 = HR's and 100 RBI's . so sick of the K Kings coming thru the Twins system

He'll never hit .280, but that's ok.  Few power hitters do these days.  Heck, Killebrew's career average was way below that.

He has 580 PA's in his career...basically a full season.  In those 580 PA's he has 29 HR's, so he hit that mark you are seeking.  He's a little short at 88 RBI's, but to a certain degree that is a function of lack of baserunners due to the Twin's mostly terrible OBP as a team.

I'm a little skeptical of "clutchiness" in hitters, but if it's an RBI guy you want Wallner's career splits with runners in scoring position are .303/.413/.613 - That is elite.

[TopGunn#22]

At least going into THIS year, Wallner has to be considered above Larnach despite the fact that Larnach was a 1st round draft choice and starred in leading his Oregon State team to an NCAA title.  Wallner's OPS these last 2 seasons are much higher than Larnach's.  His arm is certainly better.  Their gloves could be considered equal.

My post is not meant to slight Larnach.  I think both players are showing signs of figuring it out and should each show improvement in 2025.  But Wallner's "upside" is just higher.  If Wallner even shows some regression and finishes with an .800 OPS after playing as the primary RF all season his final stats will be very impressive.

Yes, Wallner K's too much.  So did Killebrew.  So did Dave Kingman.  The Twins have to hope that Wallner can be a Rocky Colovito left handed hitter without the glove.  Wallner is probably more Kingman than anyone else. 

Kingman career 162 game averages:  557 AB's 20-2B  2-3B  37-HR  101 RBI  152-K's  .236-BA .302 OBP  SLG  .478   OPS  .780  OPS+ .115

With Wallner, the strikeouts are baked in.  But the Power always played.  The Twins can't be a winning team with a lineup of Wallner's.  But if other guys supply on-base skill and there are a couple other consistent power sources, Wallner can be an excellent #6 or #7 hitter with 30 HR power.  

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, Road trip said:

He's a little short at 88 RBI's, but to a certain degree that is a function of lack of baserunners due to the Twin's mostly terrible OBP as a team.

In Wallner's tenure with the Twins, they have been at or above league average in OBP every season.

Really, the problem is just that 580 PA is still short of a full-time season's worth.  The Yankees alone had 5 players with more PA than that, in 2024.  Give Wallner the 713 PA that Soto had this past season, and he'd probably come close to Soto's 109 RBI.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins are in a bit of a tricky place with their players. A few have lost perceived value from last season and those who have taken some strides could soon run into either competition for their jobs or sink back.

Julien and Lewis had a pile of value one year ago. TD believes one will rebound and the other is toast. Larnach and Wallner made positive strides last year. This coming year is big for their careers. There are a few fellows hoping to play major league baseball as soon as this year or next: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Luke Keaschall, and Walker Jenkins. I cannot see any sense in trading any of these three for anything less than an All Star like Henderson and that will never happen.

The Twins have some cards. Which do they hold and what can be acquired for those who don't get a seat? Remember how we thought Spencer Steer would never crack the 26 person roster? That may have been the case actually but it shows where a team can maximize  player resources.

I'm sure there are conversations and discussions not too dissimilar with a few here. The reality is much trickier for those who make the decisions.