Max Kepler Is the Best Player Derek Falvey Has Let Walk for Nothing

[old nurse]

5 minutes ago, RpR said:

So what it is right there:

Minus 5, Minus 5 he was lousy in center field.

If you are saying Kepler should still be here, I AGREE.

How convient of you to not als post OAA, DRS, and UZR 150. You are picking cherries 

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, RpR said:

So what it is right there:

Minus 5, Minus 5 he was lousy in center field.

If you are saying Kepler should still be here, I AGREE.

I'm sorry. You have an interesting style that's hard for many us to follow. I hope you can forgive us for that. 

Not many can do this but you started with Field% and with amazing deftness, you seamlessly segued into Total Zone Runs above average. You went from a percentage stat to a counting stat like David Copperfield or Houdini. 

You should say Ta-Da when you post. 

 

 

[Greglw3]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Wallner is SLOW to get going and then turns a simple catch into a so called spectacular catch as he is slow to get to the ball.

His throwing accuracy is shotgun level, some hit the target a  lot do not.

Keplers bat is not his strongest point but in little things he outdid Wallner Sacrifice Flies -  in the past three years Kepler had 11, Wallner had 1; Total bases last year, Kepler 140, Wallner 115. Now Home runs, Wallner had 13 and Max only had 8 but as i said, Kepler will be missed greatly in the outfield and assuming Wallner is the full time Right Fielder, his weaknesses will show quickly.

We're both Twins fans and want them to win but I’ve heard top baseball men on the broadcasts marvel at how good a fielder Wallner is, despite how big he is. Think Larry Walker. Big guy. Plus Wallner simply freezes the other teams from taking the extra base which is super valuable. I’m not 100% sure he’s gonna hit but think he’s much better than some give him credit for. And I say the same thing about Keirsey, Jr. Martin, once he cleans up a couple of things, has a chance to be a plus outfielder. He just needs to hit .280-.290 to be valuable.

 

Here’s your Matt Wallner mantra, watch it an ask if a poor fielder could make such a play.

 

[Blyleven2011]

Kepler has left the twins organization  for a 1 year contract with the Phillies ...

I see teams only giving him 1 year contracts as he bounces around from team to team year after year for the next 5 season ...

They may like his defense  but his streaky hitting  they probably won't tolerate him for any big payday  ...

I wish him well , his defense was pretty darn good but has slipped the past couple of years , maybe injuries contributed to that ...

[Rod Carews Birthday]

4 hours ago, RpR said:

Better than here comes the ball-there goes the ball Wallner.

In ten years Keplers fielding average in Right Field  is .993 - Wallner in 3 years is .978, they will miss Kepler greatly.

I do believe, Kepler wanted out of Minn.

 

So. . . .you’re saying that a difference in fielding percentage (not the best stat on Earth but we’ll use it) of .015 is going to be crippling to a right fielder with a cannon arm and will completely negate the offensive production difference (139 OPS+ in three years vs. 102 OPS+ in ten years with a most recent 91 OPS+) — production that we’re admittedly not sure of but that seems to have tons of potential to grow in a full season?  OK. . . 

It would seem that Kepler is a better outfielder, but the bat just isn’t holding down the position.  

I do believe, that Minnesota wanted out of Kepler also.  

[dxpavelka]

The real question is:  Will Larnach & Wallner adequately pick up the slack in the corners.  And do they do so better than Larnach and Kirilloff did when Rosario left.  Say what you want about what Rosario has or has not done since he left but the guys who replaced him did NOT live up to expectations.  If that happens again, it will again be a long couple years around these parts.

[NYCTK]

5 hours ago, arby58 said:

Wallner can improve his defense

I've heard this about mutlple Twins OF this off-season. Think it was Austin Martin. 

These aren't players that have just been converted to 1B or the hot corner for the first time in their career. These are players that have played OF throughout their career. They aren't new to the position, they aren't young raw prospects. They are bad fielders in the OF that we should all expect to be bad fielders in the OF. 

 

[h2oface]

11 hours ago, AceWrigley said:

Carlos signed for one year and played for one year. Deal fulfilled. No comparison.

Kepler had a longer contract(s), but he also fulfilled his contract. I see non-tendering instead of offering a contract more fitting. Kepler really doesn't even fit the "let walk for nothing" post, and it was about him. Free Agents that fullfilled their contracts aren't really "let walk" in my opinion. The team gets the whole final season of their services. 

Guys that are cut and still paid millions of the rest of their contract "walk" for nothing. Or even worse, a team pays for them to play for another team.

[h2oface]

9 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Interesting history - we have lost much more than we have gained.  Cleveland is a good model for us - they trade or sell a year before the player leaves.  They get something and that helps with the minor leagues and future prospect development.  

I am not happy with our model, but.....

Atlanta won a World Series with Freddie Freeman's help in his Free Agent year. There is often a lot of value to gain from fullfulling a contract instead of trading someone for hasbeen prospects that never do anything except clog up the minors and then take up a few hundred of pretty worthless MLB at bats......

[arby58]

6 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

The real question is:  Will Larnach & Wallner adequately pick up the slack in the corners.  And do they do so better than Larnach and Kirilloff did when Rosario left.  Say what you want about what Rosario has or has not done since he left but the guys who replaced him did NOT live up to expectations.  If that happens again, it will again be a long couple years around these parts.

'Live up to (Kepler) expectations?' His OPS+ last year was 91. Larnach and Wallner were 116 and 149. For his career, Kepler is just about average as a hitter - OPS+ of 101. Larnach is 102 and Wallner 139. I'd say they'd have to live DOWN to Kepler's expectations.

If all you have on Kepler is he's better defensively: I've never heard a team constructed around great defense in the corners. C, SS, CF, sure, but RF, if they're great defensively it's gravy, but it's not the primary concern.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

'Live up to (Kepler) expectations?' His OPS+ last year was 91. Larnach and Wallner were 116 and 149. For his career, Kepler is just about average as a hitter - OPS+ of 101. Larnach is 102 and Wallner 139. I'd say they'd have to live DOWN to Kepler's expectations.

If all you have on Kepler is he's better defensively: I've never heard a team constructed around great defense in the corners. C, SS, CF, sure, but RF, if they're great defensively it's gravy, but it's not the primary concern.

Twins are still waiting for a LF to adequately replace Rosario.  Do you REALLY think they've got it right this time?

 

[arby58]

19 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Twins are still waiting for a LF to adequately replace Rosario.  Do you REALLY think they've got it right this time?

Kepler was a right fielder, and I think Wallner is adequate for that. As for Rosario, he was maddingly inconsistent. Two of his last three years he's had negative WAR, but he also had a couple of great years for the Twins. Since then, though, other than one astonishing late-season/post-season with Atlanta, he's been average at best, so the Twins probably let him loose at the right time. He's 10 years in MLB with a 10.8 cumulative WAR, so he's never been a player you would build a team around. 

[LambchoP]

We knew that Kep wasn't coming back in 2025 so we should have gotten what we could for him at the 2024 deadline. Of course at the time, we were still a playoff team and still trying to compete. If only we would have known what was coming. Could've probably gotten some decent pieces for Kep and or Santana. Probably not Margot but hey you never know lol.

[RpR]

12 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm sorry. You have an interesting style that's hard for many us to follow. I hope you can forgive us for that. 

Not many can do this but you started with Field% and with amazing deftness, you seamlessly segued into Total Zone Runs above average. You went from a percentage stat to a counting stat like David Copperfield or Houdini. 

You should say Ta-Da when you post. 

 

TA-DA!

[RpR]

11 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

We're both Twins fans and want them to win but I’ve heard top baseball men on the broadcasts marvel at how good a fielder Wallner is, despite how big he is. Think Larry Walker. Big guy. Plus Wallner simply freezes the other teams from taking the extra base which is super valuable. I’m not 100% sure he’s gonna hit but think he’s much better than some give him credit for. And I say the same thing about Keirsey, Jr. Martin, once he cleans up a couple of things, has a chance to be a plus outfielder. He just needs to hit .280-.290 to be valuable.

 

Here’s your Matt Wallner mantra, watch it an ask if a poor fielder could make such a play.

 

NOT a great catch, Poor field awarness. He came close to possibly hurting another player who had an easier catch than Lurch charging.

Wallner has had a LOT of close calls with other players in the field during his short time up so far.

[Major League Ready]

9 hours ago, dxpavelka said:

The real question is:  Will Larnach & Wallner adequately pick up the slack in the corners.  And do they do so better than Larnach and Kirilloff did when Rosario left.  Say what you want about what Rosario has or has not done since he left but the guys who replaced him did NOT live up to expectations.  If that happens again, it will again be a long couple years around these parts.

I like the odds of Larnach and Wallner outperforming Rosario's post-twins production and I like it a lot.  I also like the odds that E. Rodriquez out performs what Rosario did post Twins and Jenkins is also on the horizon.  Like Rosario, Kepler won't be missed.  I just wished they would have packaged Kepler/Polanco for Ford.  Who knows, maybe they tried but that was my dream scenario.

[ashbury]

19 hours ago, h2oface said:

There is often a lot of value to gain from fullfulling a contract instead of trading someone for hasbeen prospects that never do anything except clog up the minors and then take up a few hundred of pretty worthless MLB at bats......

Concur.  I had this on my mind too.  A lot of people think that the key to success for a GM is being a wheeler dealer, always outsmarting the other GM and buying low while selling high.  Overlooked entirely is the value actually delivered on the field.  Sometimes the best use of a player with a guaranteed but expiring contract is to just let him play. 

In the case of Kepler, the team was in the hunt for the postseason, at the trading deadline, and some lottery ticket prospect would not have been worth losing an average but reliable right fielder for two additional, final, months.

In other words, being the best player to walk "for nothing" is kind of a fluke stat.

[Linus]

Falvey definitely tries to get value however he can when he knows a player isn’t coming back. As for Max I think one of two things happened. The most likely option is that he had to hang onto him as they were fighting for a playoff spot. Second scenario is that Falvey overplayed his hand. Based on the $10 million Max just got there was no surplus value in the contract and Falvey thought there was meaning his asking price was not going to be met. 

[arby58]

14 hours ago, RpR said:

Keplers bat is not his strongest point but in little things he outdid Wallner Sacrifice Flies -  in the past three years Kepler had 11, Wallner had 1; Total bases last year, Kepler 140, Wallner 115. Now Home runs, Wallner had 13 and Max only had 8 but as i said, Kepler will be missed greatly in the outfield and assuming Wallner is the full time Right Fielder, his weaknesses will show quickly.

Kepler had 368 AB, and Wallner 220, so your cumulative stats mean little. Key non-cumulative stats  favor Wallner - OPS .894 to .682, and OPS+ 149 to 91. Even a key cumulative stat (WAR) is CLEARLY better for Wallner - 2.2 to Kepler's 1.0.

It's absurd to suggest that in 2024 'little things' Kepler was a better offensive player than (bigger things) Wallner.

[bean5302]

Kepler got 1 yr and $10MM. He's been a solid starter over his career, but he wasn't close to worth a QO. The Twins were expected to make the playoffs so trading Kepler mid season wouldn't have made sense. The problem with Kepler is he wasn't traded in the 2023-2024 offseason, but Falvey doesn't seem to have any sense or urgency so it seems like he's holding the short end of the stick on tradable assets in January/February.

While the writer's opinions of other players is they weren't as good as Kepler, the fact remains Carlos Santana, Jake Odorizzi and Kenta Maeda all received bigger contracts than Kepler; the market spoke to those player's relative value, and Kepler was not as good as them. If we're going to ignore Minnesota's position and Kepler's poor production, then we'd have to ignore those other player's problems.

[arby58]

14 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

See

It's right there

Kepler - CF Fld% 1,000 - No Errors in 319 Chances. 

 

Errors for an outfielder is not the primary stat to judge their defensive value. Baseball prospectus calculates Deserved Runs Prevented, which takes into consideration range, errors, etc. Kepler was 3.2 last year, and Wallner was -0.1, meaning over the course of the season, Kepler saved a little over 3 'deserved' runs more than Wallner.

Now let's talk offense . . .

[Riverbrian]

36 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Errors for an outfielder is not the primary stat to judge their defensive value. Baseball prospectus calculates Deserved Runs Prevented, which takes into consideration range, errors, etc. Kepler was 3.2 last year, and Wallner was -0.1, meaning over the course of the season, Kepler saved a little over 3 'deserved' runs more than Wallner.

Now let's talk offense . . .

I know

I was speaking his language. 

[arby58]

Baseball Prospectus has put out its 2025 PECOTA projections. They project Kepler to be 1.2 wins above a replacement player. They project Wallner at 1.7, and Larnach at 2.1.

[dxpavelka]

6 hours ago, arby58 said:

Kepler was a right fielder, and I think Wallner is adequate for that. As for Rosario, he was maddingly inconsistent. Two of his last three years he's had negative WAR, but he also had a couple of great years for the Twins. Since then, though, other than one astonishing late-season/post-season with Atlanta, he's been average at best, so the Twins probably let him loose at the right time. He's 10 years in MLB with a 10.8 cumulative WAR, so he's never been a player you would build a team around. 

Rosario brought an intangible that no analytic can measure.  Heart.  Cue a dozen people who will try to sell me on the analytics.

 

[dxpavelka]

5 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I like the odds of Larnach and Wallner outperforming Rosario's post-twins production and I like it a lot.  I also like the odds that E. Rodriquez out performs what Rosario did post Twins and Jenkins is also on the horizon.  Like Rosario, Kepler won't be missed.  I just wished they would have packaged Kepler/Polanco for Ford.  Who knows, maybe they tried but that was my dream scenario.

Would have been nice to see Larnach do that day 1 rather than waiting three years.

[mnfireman]

15 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Rosario brought an intangible that no analytic can measure.  Heart.  Cue a dozen people who will try to sell me on the analytics.

 

So did Punto, Lew Ford and any number of Gardy's Gamers.

Rosario also brought bad baserunning, bad routes to fly balls, a below average arm, and questionable plate appearances.

[arby58]

50 minutes ago, dxpavelka said:

Rosario brought an intangible that no analytic can measure.  Heart.  Cue a dozen people who will try to sell me on the analytics.

Heart and head were often at odds, which is a lot of what made him so inconsistent.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

So did Punto, Lew Ford and any number of Gardy's Gamers.

Rosario also brought bad baserunning, bad routes to fly balls, a below average arm, and questionable plate appearances.

And we have one playoff appearance in the four season's he's been gone.  Sometimes fixing all the problems doesn't fix all the problems.

[dxpavelka]

1 hour ago, arby58 said:

Heart and head were often at odds, which is a lot of what made him so inconsistent.

We've been little but inconsistent since he's left.

[T.O.]

Even with a compensation pick I think Sonny Gray was the bigger fish to get away.