What Did Michael Tonkin Ever Do to You?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Inside the ardent campaign to rid the Twins of the pox that is, apparently, a dirt-cheap, rubber-armed reliever who's a perfect fit for their roster.

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

What did Michael Tonkin ever do to you? What did he do wrong, except bounce around the league for the last decade without evincing the ability to be a relief ace? What is he really asking of you? Just, maybe, $1.5 million, on a one-year deal, and a roster spot the team has spent on guys like Jay Jackson and Josh Staumont lately. Is that so much to ask? Must you detest him so, for his failure to be elite?

As offseason blueprints roll in and fans speculate about non-tender candidates on the Twins roster, I find myself agog (agog!) at the number of people eager—desperate, almost—to be shot of Tonkin, soon to turn 36 years old. The message from Twins Territory is clear: This is not Tonkin Territory. Here's my question: Why?

Since the start of the 2023 season, only the following players have more innings pitched in relief than Tonkin: 

• Tyler Holton
• [end list]

Hang on, sorry, this thing must not be working. I said, here are all the relievers who have been more available and more used than Michael Tonkin over the last two years:

• Tyler Holton
• [end list]

Ok, well, I guess it's true then. Holton has pitched more than Tonkin, but no other reliever in baseball has. Could the mileage catch up to the aging righty? Of course. That's a risk with any pitcher who has pitched a lot recently. By and large, though, it's not a good idea—it is, in fact, a colossally stupid idea—to mentally punish pitchers for being durable, especially if they're established veterans, rather than guys in their early 20s. Tonkin is the proverbial rubber arm, the guy you don't mind not being able to option to the minors because you know you can go to him for multiple innings, or on back-to-back days. That's argument number one for everyone to stop being so mean to him.

Here's argument number two: It's not like he's been bad, at all, over these two years. He doesn't have a true out pitch, and (by modern high-leverage standards) he doesn't throw very hard, but Tonkin has allowed an OPS of just .662 since the start of last season. He's struck out 24.1% of opposing batters and walked 8% of them. He's not wildly homer-prone. Tonkin is, simply, an above-average pitcher who will give you 80 innings of work if he's healthy, and we know that for sure because he just got done doing so two years in a row.

I think fans, and even many would-be experts, are mostly (perhaps subconsciously) holding it against Tonkin that he was out of the big leagues from 2017 until 2023. He's had a peripatetic, fairly anonymous career, but Twins fans remember him from over a decade ago. They know that he's not famous or rich. They naturally fill in the rest, and assume he's as forgettable and fringy as ever. He's not, though! He's not dominant, and he comes with some age-related risk, but he's just good now!

The kicker is, Tonkin is also a truly terrific fit for this Twins pitching staff. They desperately need exactly what he does, because they're a team with a lot of guys who use high arm slots, and Tonkin offers the contrast every team wants to have.

If you plan out a game well, using Tonkin against a right-leaning pocket of an opposing lineup who last saw the likes of David Festa or Pablo López can be devastating. He gives hitters an especially tough look if they've been accustomed to seeing guys with high release points and vertically-oriented arsenals, because he works almost purely east and west.

If Tonkin didn't exist on this roster, a master builder would need to create him. He's the yin to a whole lot of yang, and he and the rest of his likely 2025 teammates can make each other better by presenting opponents with contrasting styles and changes of pace.

There are arguments for cutting Tonkin later this week. I just don't think any of them are good. Please, be nicer to Michael Tonkin.

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[tony&rodney]

I believe you are correct. My own shabby first attempt at a roster forgot to add him and I actually meant to include him but just absent-mindedly put two LH relievers down. Tonkin goes on the next form.

[DJL44]

Veteran innings eater in the bullpen. That is worth $1.5M.

[Rosterman]

He's in the category of Caleb Thielbar and Brock Stewart, too. Not so much the money, but worth the roster spot, especially if not tradebait, and if you would cut him for signing another free agent, you eat some money.

Better on a minor league free agent contract, with the hopes of cracking the roster in spring training or being immediate relief help in St. Paul. At this stage, if you sign him, keep him in the majors, you jsut can't option him back to the minors.

40-man roster spots are valuable.

[Hrbeks Divot]

Start the conversation with a minor league offer and ST invite. If the plan is to sign three guys the caliber of last year to fill the bullpen he’s worth a major league deal at $1.5-$2.0.

[PatPfund]

I like Tonkin, and wouldn't mind seeing him back at all. I just don't want to see the Twins walk down last year's trail locking up fringey bullpen arms early (when exactly nobody else is clamoring to sign them). Keep lines open with Tonkin, but focus on need, which for me is a healthy, innings-eating SP3/4.

I still think if we'd signed Lorenzen last spring, we win the division, but we couldn't afford his paltry $4.5 million salary, because we wasted it on clowns like Jackson, Staumont, and Margot. Our current rotation is Lopez, Ober, Ryan (a guy coming off a major shoulder injury), Paddack (a guy coming off 5 years of major elbow injuries), SWR (who was great but wore down big time), Festa (a kid with a handful of MLB starts), Zebby (a kid who looked in-over-his-head), and Varland (who has guts, but has yet to show he is an MLB SP). I'd love another MLB-level arm to push the line down, the same way Ober was forced to start in St Paul in '23 (aka the year we won the division and a playoff series).

[bean5302]

50 minutes ago, Hrbeks Divot said:

Start the conversation with a minor league offer and ST invite. If the plan is to sign three guys the caliber of last year to fill the bullpen he’s worth a major league deal at $1.5-$2.0.

He's going to get an MLB offer for at least his arb value.

[bean5302]

In my offseason plan, published before the "You're the GM" series came out, I tendered Tonkin. In fact, I definitely take him over Topa, who is another injury plagued possible one year wonder.

Tonkin is a solid, durable innings eater who is cheap. When you've got Alcala, Moran, Stewart and Canterino on the roster, a durable middle innings bullpen arm is valuable. Teams have trusted Tonkin to pitch 160 innings of relief the past 2 years with a majority of his deployments being over 1.0 innings. When you've got Rocco "Quick Hook" aka "Broken Macro" Baldelli in the dugout, a reliever who is actually good at walking to the bump more than once per game is true asset.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Rosterman said:

if you would cut him for signing another free agent, you eat some money.

I wouldn't worry about that. He's cheap enough that he usually gets picked up on waivers and the new team picks up the salary.

[DocBauer]

Basically 80 IP each of the last two seasons, with a K per 9, and a.littl3 under 3-1 K/BB ratio. He was actually a little better in 2024 than 2023 due to lowering his HR totals.

And he only costs a projected $1.5-1.8M to keep. I don't see why you wouldn't bring him back. And if we have to worry about $1.5-ish M  ruing any plans, we're in big trouble.

[jmlease1]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Tonkin is a solid, durable innings eater who is cheap. When you've got Alcala, Moran, Stewart and Canterino on the roster, a durable middle innings bullpen arm is valuable. Teams have trusted Tonkin to pitch 160 innings of relief the past 2 years with a majority of his deployments being over 1.0 innings. When you've got Rocco "Quick Hook" aka "Broken Macro" Baldelli in the dugout, a reliever who is actually good at walking to the bump more than once per game is true asset.

You undermine your own arguments pretty significantly when you take gratuitous shots at Rocco for a) executing a strategy that everyone in baseball is following, and b) Rocco showed quite clearly that given a starting staff capable of going deeper in games he let them go deeper in games.

The "spreadsheet" attacks on the manager are tired and lame, and certainly don't sell me on offering arbitration or a raise to Michael Tonkin, who is very very average. he had a career best stretch with the Yankees...who waived him in August. 

Someone will give him a chance, and I'm even ok with it being the Twins, but there's a dozen guys like him every year looking for work on cut down day. So spending $1.5M on him doesn't exactly make my sock roll up and down.

I mean, Happy Birthday Michael Tonkin! You seem like a marginal middle reliever with minimal upside, but seems ok if you've really figured out a way to get the occasional LH hitter out consistently.

[old nurse]

The have Stewart, Jax, and Duran for high leverage, Sands, Topa, Alcala for the medium.  A lefty is missing. Tonkin fits in as the 8th guy. The minor league retreads they usually sign will be in St Paul. They will be needed for when someone gets injured.  That aspect happens every year. There is always the possibility of a trade of one of the top 6 to get the lefty. Or as part of a trade for another piece.  If they were not going to keep Tonkin they probably would have released him at the end of the season wihen the released other players 

[bean5302]

3 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

You undermine your own arguments pretty significantly when you take gratuitous shots at Rocco for a) executing a strategy that everyone in baseball is following, and b) Rocco showed quite clearly that given a starting staff capable of going deeper in games he let them go deeper in games.

The "spreadsheet" attacks on the manager are tired and lame, and certainly don't sell me on offering arbitration or a raise to Michael Tonkin, who is very very average. he had a career best stretch with the Yankees...who waived him in August. 

Someone will give him a chance, and I'm even ok with it being the Twins, but there's a dozen guys like him every year looking for work on cut down day. So spending $1.5M on him doesn't exactly make my sock roll up and down.

I mean, Happy Birthday Michael Tonkin! You seem like a marginal middle reliever with minimal upside, but seems ok if you've really figured out a way to get the occasional LH hitter out consistently.

Let me make this absolutely clear. I don't agree with the front office's general strategies, and the front office further distanced themselves from Rocco Baldelli's decision making in the past in regard to the TTO concerns. I believe their combined general strategies are often founded in incomplete data or thoughts; they lean well too far into an unchallenged hypothesis and not enough into a theory. If you believe Rocco Baldelli's methodology doesn't create an increased need for a multi-inning reliever, that's your opinion and you have a right to it.

Also, I'm not making a pitch to sell Tonkin to you since you (or I) have absolutely no influence on the Twins' front office decision makers.

[old nurse]

12 minutes ago, jmlease1 said:

You undermine your own arguments pretty significantly when you take gratuitous shots at Rocco for a) executing a strategy that everyone in baseball is following, and b) Rocco showed quite clearly that given a starting staff capable of going deeper in games he let them go deeper in games.

The "spreadsheet" attacks on the manager are tired and lame, and certainly don't sell me on offering arbitration or a raise to Michael Tonkin, who is very very average. he had a career best stretch with the Yankees...who waived him in August. 

Someone will give him a chance, and I'm even ok with it being the Twins, but there's a dozen guys like him every year looking for work on cut down day. So spending $1.5M on him doesn't exactly make my sock roll up and down.

I mean, Happy Birthday Michael Tonkin! You seem like a marginal middle reliever with minimal upside, but seems ok if you've really figured out a way to get the occasional LH hitter out consistently.

The people who think Baldelli has a quick hook ignore that last season and the season before he was operating more on pitch count than innings. If it looked like the pitcher was going to go over 100, he didn’t get to start the next inning.. somebody with the knowledge and desire to sort through the records can tell me if I am wrong or not  the people who complain about the quick hook, in my opinion, just do not pay attention to details

[bean5302]

4 minutes ago, old nurse said:

The people who think Baldelli has a quick hook ignore that last season and the season before he was operating more on pitch count than innings. If it looked like the pitcher was going to go over 100, he didn’t get to start the next inning.. somebody with the knowledge and desire to sort through the records can tell me if I am wrong or not  the people who complain about the quick hook, in my opinion, just do not pay attention to details

Yep. There was that one time when he had 2 Cy Young candidates and the healthiest rotation in baseball.

[weitz41]

OK, OK I updated my offseason wish list. Missed a few things that made it so he is in my BP.

Satisfied?

:)

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yep. There was that one time when he had 2 Cy Young candidates and the healthiest rotation in baseball.

So much for you putting me on your ignore list. One, I said last 2 years, 2 There were more than just the 2 pitchers chasing a Cy Young in 23. Prove me wrong or be quiet 

[bean5302]

38 minutes ago, old nurse said:

So much for you putting me on your ignore list. One, I said last 2 years, 2 There were more than just the 2 pitchers chasing a Cy Young in 23. Prove me wrong or be quiet 

You're still on my ignore list, but I can manually choose to expand ignored content, just as a reference for anybody wondering how the "ignore" function actually works. You'll see the following text with a drop down on "Options" allowing you to see/respond/etc.

Quote

You've chosen to ignore content by old nurse. Options

I mostly browse TD while not logged in so I actually see quite a few ignored posts, even from people I've ignored. Every once in a while, I respond.

Btw, can't prove an opinion to somebody who doesn't want to listen in the first place.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

5 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Yep. There was that one time when he had 2 Cy Young candidates and the healthiest rotation in baseball.

So you’re saying that it would be a good idea to have pitchers pitch more innings if they are less good or less healthy.  If anything these two years prove that given appropriate talent, Rocco Baldelli will let them pitch longer, and I think that’s what we actually want.  

[old nurse]

7 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Btw, can't prove an opinion to somebody who doesn't want to listen in the first place.

Wow. No truer words were spoken about you than by yourself. Thanks for the laugh 

[gman]

I'd have Tonkin or someone like Tonkin to come in during innings 4-6. Maybe later during a good stretch he could get a couple outs in the 7th. He could get 80 innings for the team that would be not given to someone trying out. We've had enough of that. Games he pitches in do not seem to frequently explode out of control.

[Danchat]

What did he ever do to me? Well, he disappointed me by failing to live up to the hype of being a legitimately good reliever in 2013-17. So yeah, I guess I do have some beef with Tonkin!

😉