Grading the 2024 Minnesota Twins: Coaches and Executives

[Brandon]

5 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

You’re being too kind to Derek Falvey IMO. He did a poor job allocating the budget. When the margins are razor thin, you can’t keep a $10 million RF when there were MLB ready options in the minors. When the margins are razor thin, you’ve got to hit on marginal FAs. Jay Jackson $3 million utter failure. DeSclafini $4 million didn’t throw a single pitch for us. Margot $4 million failure. Trevor “Wild Pitch” Richards at the trade deadline. 

Margot did better than the alternative player Taylor. And Margot’s failure comes from how he was used at times.  Jackson was a failure but Staumant had a nice run for 850,000.  Along with acquiring Desclafini we were able to sign Santana and that worked out well.  Blewett, Henriquez and Tonkin worked out well. (Henriquez was acquired in previous season). I grade out Falvey as B+ we have a top 3 farm system and he did the best he could with negative resources to work with.  

[weitz41]

I really don't want to cut the FO any slack on the last month and a half of this season. But let's be realistic. What? 100 maybe 120 games of good to great baseball. Unfortunately, it takes 162+. I agree that they have a part in this late season collapse. But really, it's IMO the payroll limits combined with regression and injuries put the kybosh to doing anything great at the end of the season.

Players regress. Sophomore slumps happen. Anyone expecting all 2023 rookies to get only better is not being honest with themselves.

Buxton playing 102 games. Awesome! But I read more complaints than anything. People...you run into a wall a full speed and see if you're going to work tomorrow...Man smash your shin into the coffee table trying to see that play and see if you're doing cartwheel's the next day.

Planar Fascii..People can end up on short or even long-term disability with that. But we're paying too much for his 100+ games,,,

Can you or I plan on our transmission going out? Wheel bearing failing out of know where? In the FO's case, can they have enough backups planed for hurricane Helene? AND drop payroll 25%

Yes, they earned C's, D's and F's but probably never had a chance to score above a C..

[bean5302]

19 minutes ago, Brandon said:

Margot did better than the alternative player Taylor. And Margot’s failure comes from how he was used at times.  Jackson was a failure but Staumant had a nice run for 850,000.  Along with acquiring Desclafini we were able to sign Santana and that worked out well.  Blewett, Henriquez and Tonkin worked out well. (Henriquez was acquired in previous season). I grade out Falvey as B+ we have a top 3 farm system and he did the best he could with negative resources to work with.  

Margot wasn't a CF. You're also creating a false dilemma as it wasn't Taylor vs. Margot or else! We do not have a top 3 farm system. Brooks Lee and David Festa graduated. The Twins did have a top 3 farm system the year before Falvey as well.

Falvey can't budget appropriately. He doesn't address needs before addressing wants.

4 playoff appearances in 8 years. 1 playoff series win.

Falvey may have kept this franchise from becoming derelict, but he certainly hasn't elevated this franchise at all. 

[weitz41]

Oh, forgot to include this..

Saying we are going to right size payroll. To me as an hourly employee is like saying I'm not working Mondays but expect my paycheck to not change...Sorry but it doesn't work that way...

[UpstateNewYorker]

2 hours ago, TheLeviathan said:

I find it even more strange because baseball is trying to create more of a running game with rule changes.  It's likely that trend continues.

Why wouldn't we want to be ahead of that curve?  Look at the difference it has made for Cleveland, Cincy, and Milwaukee.  Those teams (well, not so much Cincy) don't have a ton of punch in their lineups put plate a lot of extra runs just by utilizing speed.  We were dead last in steals

Speed is an asset in the field and makes avoiding long run-scoring droughts less likely.  It is my number one thing I want this organization to rethink.  

Completely agree. Back in the Moneyball era "analytics" was about finding advantages in the margins. With the larger bases it would seem that base stealing and taking the extra base is a small area teams can exploit. We're supposedly an analytical organization but the Twins haven't gotten any more athletic since these rules were implemented.

[Mike Sixel]

If you made me guess..... The owners would give everyone a B, since they were competitive and likely made millions in profits. This is a group that cares about sustainable success, not winning it all, as the primary goal. 

Not my preference, but that's my guess in terms of what they want. 

I'd give the lot of them d and f grades from a fan's perspective 

[Five minute major]

How is anybody defending Rocco still at this point.   He was a questionable hire to start with and has done nothing to warrant continued employment.  He is absolutely still riding the huge coattails of Nelson Cruz and being in a very weak division overall the past few years.   He has ZERO feel for the game. ZERO.  Baseball is not a game that can be solely managed with analytics.  There human element in baseball is incredibly important, particularly confidence and every year, the players lose it at the end of the season.  They are going nowhere with Rocco.   

 

[Five minute major]

 

Falvey had as bad a year as Rocco if not worse.   These truly are dark days for Twins fans.  There is very little to get excited about with this ownership as well.   Pohlad's must sell.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I'd give the entire organization a D+ across the board except ownership, that gets an F. Or an I for Incomplete and incompetent. 

Edit: The organization does get an A for being "able" to beat the White Sox, easily one of the worst teams in baseball history. What a great accomplishment to hang your hats on.

[old nurse]

The Twins pitchers has the seventh best FIP in baseball and the coach gets a bad grade despite having  1/4 of the starting pitching innings being done by rookies and over 1/4 of the relief innings thrown by players who were at some point DFA’d. There is something wrong with this picture. 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, old nurse said:

The Twins pitchers has the seventh best FIP in baseball and the coach gets a bad grade despite having  1/4 of the starting pitching innings being done by rookies and over 1/4 of the relief innings thrown by players who were at some point DFA’d. There is something wrong with this picture. 

Ya, I'm beginning to agree with this point......

[USAFChief]

44 minutes ago, old nurse said:

The Twins pitchers has the seventh best FIP in baseball and the coach gets a bad grade despite having  1/4 of the starting pitching innings being done by rookies and over 1/4 of the relief innings thrown by players who were at some point DFA’d. There is something wrong with this picture. 

What's wrong is thinking FIP is a worthwhile measure of performance. 

[pierre75275]

A little disappointed that pitching coaches, hitting coaches, bench coaches and first and third base coaches werent analyzed altho I can understand it might be hard to do so. I feel like Tommy Watkins was a terrible third base coach. And I guess the front office already let us know how they felt about the hitting coaches so there is that

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

What's wrong is thinking FIP is a worthwhile measure of performance. 

I think FIP can be helpful, but its honestly a super primitive stat prone to error so using it as a single data source like gospel is a bad idea in my opinion. Most pitchers are going to perform at their FIP over the long haul, but there are pitchers like Pablo Lopez, for instance, who almost always perform worse than their FIP in real life.

[old nurse]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

What's wrong is thinking FIP is a worthwhile measure of performance. 

That is your opinion that the Twins were near the bottom in DRS, UZR 159 and middle of the pack in OAA it is justifiable to look at FIP rather than ERA

 

31 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

I think FIP can be helpful, but its honestly a super primitive stat prone to error so using it as a single data source like gospel is a bad idea in my opinion. Most pitchers are going to perform at their FIP over the long haul, but there are pitchers like Pablo Lopez, for instance, who almost always perform worse than their FIP in real life.

only when he pitches for the Twins.

[TwinsChupacabra]

Remember David Letterman's top ten list each night?  Well, I wish someone would create a top ten list of excuses everyone on this site seems to give Rocco each and every year.   For example:

1. Injuries (as if no other team has that problem)

2. Drop in payroll

3. He's a manager but he doesn't swing the bat (blame the players)

4. He finally won a 2 game playoff series at home, so we can't get rid of him.

5. He's a loyalist to the front office.  These are hard to find.

6. If you fire him, there's nobody out there you can hire to replace him.

7. The players like him.

8. The Twins play in a tough division (usually the opposite)

9. We're Minnesota, We have low expectations.

10.  I've seen worse (examples please)

     

[old nurse]

8 hours ago, TwinsChupacabra said:

Remember David Letterman's top ten list each night?  Well, I wish someone would create a top ten list of excuses everyone on this site seems to give Rocco each and every year.   For example:

1. Injuries (as if no other team has that problem)

2. Drop in payroll

3. He's a manager but he doesn't swing the bat (blame the players)

4. He finally won a 2 game playoff series at home, so we can't get rid of him.

5. He's a loyalist to the front office.  These are hard to find.

6. If you fire him, there's nobody out there you can hire to replace him.

7. The players like him.

8. The Twins play in a tough division (usually the opposite)

9. We're Minnesota, We have low expectations.

10.  I've seen worse (examples please)

     

Everyone does not say what you claim  such lengths people go is amazing 

[Whitey333]

Yes perhaps payroll dollars need to be allocated better.  A penny pinching team should never have signed Buxton and Correa to such long term contracts.  The fact that ownership signed off on those deals further shows their total lack of planning.  I generally agree with your grades and comments.  At this point in time this organization is a mess most of which is brought on by itself.

[Original_JB]

17 hours ago, UpstateNewYorker said:

Completely agree. Back in the Moneyball era "analytics" was about finding advantages in the margins. With the larger bases it would seem that base stealing and taking the extra base is a small area teams can exploit. We're supposedly an analytical organization but the Twins haven't gotten any more athletic since these rules were implemented.

Improperly used analytics would show that there is a higher propensity for injury during SB attempts than if you didn't attempt them at all, so...

[David Maro]

This whole operation gets a F- because both the Tigers and the Royals are moving on in the playoffs.And all the Twins are moving on to the back 9 at the golf course.

[jmlease1]

I'm probably a little more generous to Rocco, Falvey, and Maki?

Rocco couldn't pull the right levers this season, but once again ran out of options late in the year between injuries and ineffectiveness. Dude can't swing the bat, catch the ball, or throw it for any of the players. (I also think that most fans overrate the impact the manager has in wins and losses via strategy decisions, though) But there did seem to be some factures in the clubhouse at the end, and he very stubbornly stuck with some strategies that simply weren't panning out this season, especially around pinch-hitting. C- to me, but how much difference does half a grade really make?

Falvey and front office made some bad bets this year, but were hamstrung from Day 1 by ownership. The Santana signing worked out well in the end. The farm system development is going well, with real options emerging form the minors for starting pitchers. fewer apparent busts down there too. But Margot was a flop, and they really put too many eggs in the basket of injured pitchers. Getting next to nothing out of both Stewart and Topa was a worst-case scenario, but was also more problematic when you go dumpster diving with guys like Staumont, Jackson, and Okert. Who's responsible for no reinforcements before the deadline, the FO or ownership? I think that's ownership and payroll, personally. C, mostly because I blame ownership for hanging the front office out to dry.

Maki did ok to me; SWR pitched valiantly and made adjustments through the year, the bullpen started the season wonderfully, and I'm not going to overreact to the collapse at the end. The FIP argument matters to me; Maki didn't control the defense (which was poor), and you have to give him some credit for Sands turning into a reliable guy and Jax becoming elite. demerit for being part of the poor handling of Alcala (who still finished with a better ERA+ than Sands or Duran). And he probably did have some say in picking the garbage fire retreads. C+

If there was a grade lower than F for the Pohlads and St. Peter, I'd give it. they are the truest of all poop tiers for this season. An absolutely shameful performance, especially in totally mucking up the tv and streaming deals. the payroll cut was rotten, but when put in the context of also making a cash grab on the broadcast rights that a) should have at least eased some of the payroll limitations and clearly did not, and b) being party to making it harder for fans to watch the games after promising better access they deserve all the shaming in the public square one can muster. St. Peter is a nice guy, but he utterly failed and needs to retire or be retired. Sadly, the Pohlads are too rich for shame.

[bean5302]

On 10/2/2024 at 9:12 PM, old nurse said:

That is your opinion that the Twins were near the bottom in DRS, UZR 159 and middle of the pack in OAA it is justifiable to look at FIP rather than ERA

 

only when he pitches for the Twins.

No, it's really not. I just did the quick math on this for some other Pablo Lopez lover the other day. The Twins pitched 1440 innings last year. Their team's defensive values are as follows: 
OAA = 0 runs ERA = FIP
DRS = -19 runs ERA =+0.12 vs. FIP
UZR = -30 runs ERA = +0.18 vs. FIP

Defense matters, but for guys like Lopez, not nearly enough to account for his ERA being much higher than FIP.

FIP says every single pitcher is identical. There are no ground ball or fly ball pitchers. Every pitcher has the same pitch type, amount of hard contact, and the same launch angles. No pitcher is different out of the stretch than the windup. No pitchers hold runners better than another. It's purely hypothetical and terribly out of date. It's barely better than just using ERA as a predictive stat.