Grading the 2024 Minnesota Twins: Pitchers

[Nick Nelson]

From the players to the coaches to the front office to ownership, we're assigning letter grades to the performance of everyone who played a role in the 2024 Twins season. Today, we look at the pitchers.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Sixteen different pitchers threw at least 25 innings for the Twins this season. Here, I assign them all letter grades and review their seasons, in alphabetical order. (Yesterday I graded the hitters on the 2024 Twins.)

Jorge Alcalá: C+
Alcalá was one of the best stories of the first half, rebounding from a lost year to post a 1.56 ERA through the All-Star break. But he, like the team, unraveled in the final two months, to the point where he was sent to Triple-A for a spell in September as the Twins grasped for life. Despite his helpful early contributions and a 3.24 overall ERA, it's hard to view Alcalá's season as a success.

Jhoan Durán: B
He wasn't quite the Durán we were used to, missing a few ticks from his (still elite) velocity and lapsing at a few inopportune moments – as illustrated by his nine losses. But the big righty was still very good. To the extent he struggled, it was mostly attributable to bad luck. He pitched well and even if 99-100 MPH is his new norm, there's no reason to think he can't remain a top-tier closer.

David Festa: B
Festa carved up Triple-A hitters in the first half before joining the Twins to deliver an impressive, and crucial, 64 ⅓ innings over 14 appearances as a rookie. His strikeout stuff very much played in the majors (10.8 K/9) and his command of the strike zone was surprisingly decent, given his rep for being a little wild. He's got the makings of a mid-rotation or even front-of-rotation starter if he can keep firing strikes at a decent clip.

Kody Funderburk: F
A tough season for Funderburk after he showed promise in 2023 as a rookie. He posted a 6.49 ERA in 34 ⅔ innings, struggling with control and contact. He missed almost the entire second half with an oblique injury, returning for one final meltdown outing in late September to punctuate a trying campaign.

Jay Jackson: F
The free agent signing could have hardly flopped worse, posting a 7.52 ERA with seven homers allowed in 26 innings. He was out of the organization by midseason. 

Griffin Jax: A
Finally reaching his fully realized form, Jax was one of the best and most dominant relievers in the American League, blowing hitters away with his gravity-bending sweeper. The only thing keeping him from an A+ is that one of his few poor outings happened to be a devastating one – allowing the go-ahead home run against Cleveland to open a September road trip that effectively sunk the team's season.

Pablo López: C+
For a midseason stretch, López looked like the ace we know he can be, but he had an ERA over five at the All-Star break and he totally bombed in his biggest start of the season at Fenway in September. The righty's expected stats paint a more favorable picture, but what happened on the field is what counts and López's final results were disappointingly ordinary.

Zebby Matthews: C+
He posted a 6.69 ERA and 5.71 FIP in nine major-league starts. Those are obviously not good numbers. But we need to zoom out and look at Matthews' season as a whole: He started in Single-A, rocketed through the minors, and delivered some much-needed innings for the Twins late in the season. While his overall numbers in the majors were inflated by a few major clunkers, the 24-year-old allowed allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of eight starts, posting a very good 38-to-8 K/BB ratio.

Bailey Ober: B
In many ways, Ober took the big stride forward that many optimists (like myself) were envisioning before the season. He set a career high in innings and was, for long stretches, almost unhittable. But his propensity for getting absolutely crushed on occasion, and losing games single-handedly, ended up as a significant mark against him, leaving his overall numbers just barely above average. 

Steven Okert: F
Another bullpen bust, Okert posted a 5.09 ERA, including 8.79 in his last 20 appearances before being designated for assignment in August.

Chris Paddack: D
There were a few flashes of excellence in his return from Tommy John surgery, but Paddack was largely mediocre as he once again dealt with arm issues that kept him under 90 innings pitched on the season.

Joe Ryan: B
Ryan pitched like a frontline starter and borderline All-Star for four months before going down with a season-ending injury in early August. He still gave up a few more homers than you'd like, but Ryan was mostly outstanding, tallying six times as many strikeouts as walks with a WHIP under one. 

Cole Sands: A
In one of the season's most pleasant surprises, Sands excelled in a full-time bullpen role from front to back, earning his way into one of the club's highest-leverage roles and consistently getting the job done.

Caleb Thielbar: D
He missed the first two weeks with an injury, gave up three runs in his first appearance of the season, and never really recovered en route to a 5.32 ERA as part of a leaky bullpen. Thielbar posted his lowest strikeout rate in four years, allowing 50 hits and 24 walks in 47 innings. This might be the end of the line for him.

Louie Varland: F
There were glimmers of promise, especially during his late stint in the bullpen. Still, Varland finished with a 7.61 ERA and 12 home runs allowed in 50 innings, and he also had a 4.75 ERA in Triple-A. Tough to put much of a positive spin on those results.

Simeon Woods Richardson: B
When Anthony DiSclafano went down before the season began, and Paddack went down early, Woods Richardson provided a crucial depth charge, pitching very well for several months before running out of gas in September.

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[DJL44]

Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews get the same grade? That makes no sense.

[Patzky]

22 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews get the same grade? That makes no sense.

Agree. I think the expectations instead of the results are coloring the final grade in some cases. 

 

"You ain't expecting the rookies to carry the vets, are ya?"

[DJL44]

10 minutes ago, Patzky said:

Agree. I think the expectations instead of the results are coloring the final grade in some cases. 

Except when they aren't. It was reasonable to expect Alcala was injured and ineffective yet another season. Based on his actual results he exceeded expectations.

[Brandon]

My biggest disagreement is on Paddacks grade.  We were expecting 100-120 innings we got 88.33.  He was good in more starts than he was bad.  When he was bad he was really bad so his ERA is inflated.  I would give him a C possibly C+.

my other complaints are Zebby because the lens you should grade him on is expectations in the bigs and he met some, but was more hittable than hoped for.  Nice control and K numbers a C- possibly C for how good his control was.  Kinda like Festa’s first two starts.  He gave up lots of runs but still made it through 5 innings.

Alcala I give a B- for all the reasons you gave.  I think I give him more credit for how good his first half was so his fall was the same but from a higher place then where you had him.

last complaint López.  He was a C-/D+ the first half and A or A- the second which should give you a B- /C+ grade.  
 

basically nitpicking.

[Vanimal46]

Sands and Jax were both spectacular this season. I do wonder if they will ask one of them to build up stamina and return to the rotation? Morneau was talking about Jax’s goal to get back in the rotation during the Marlins’ series. 

[LambchoP]

I think Jax probably could start again, but losing him or Sands as a reliever would seriously cripple our bullpen. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

Minor league stats do not matter in this type of ranking.  I also do not give a tremendous amount of weight to "expectations" for rookies.  That being said:

Alcala = B+ (Quietly the Twins 4th best reliever despite the team never trusting him)

Festa = F
Matthews = F
Varland = F-
The leash was WAAAAAAYYYYYY to long for these guys, but it was given due to lack of options

Thielbar = F  (Horrendous season for the once strong reliever)

No issues with the other grades, other then maybe a small uptick for Ryan (B+?)

[jmlease1]

Too harsh on Alcala, I think; his actual results weren't pretty close to where Sands landed. Sands was more consistent, and that seems to be a theme in these evaluations where players get extra credit for consistency and the boom or bust guys are getting punished. Healthy for the first time in 3 seasons, Alcala put up an ERA+ of 129, and had a positive WPA, despite some notable implosions (which tells you that when he was good he was very very good). I would say that counts as a success, especially when you look at how the Twins managed him. (of all the relievers, they seemed to have the worst/no plan for him the most)

Matthews is hard to evaluate in this company. Overall in terms of his development it was a very successful season, rising from A-ball to pitch in MLB, and he showed he could compete. But he also has things to work on and wasn't good in MLB yet. A lot of his numbers ended up disturbingly close to Varland...who got an F (and deserved it). In terms of his MLB experience, he was a D. But looking at the totality of his development and rise from the minors, he does much better and expectations were certainly lower for him than someone like Varland, who has already had bites at the MLB apple. he's getting graded on a different curve, which is both correct and unfair. :P

Twins have got to come up with a better solution for a LHP in the bullpen next season: Thielbar looks cooked, Okert can't survive in today environment being so helpless against righties, Funderburk hasn't been healthy enough or effective enough to be the top lefty...Headrick making a full-time transition? (I don't even want to talk about Cole Irvin) 

I feel somewhat positive about the pitching staff going into next season: Ryan will be back, Ober is proven now, Lopez has shown he can lead a staff before so I expect him to have a better and more consistent season. SWR threw more innings than he's ever done as a pro and did it at the MLB level...and competed. Between Paddack/Festa/Matthews/Lewis/Morris/Nowlin/Raya we have options for the 5th starter with reinforcements to handle injuries/ineffectiveness drawing from serious prospects rather than washed up retreads or rookies with little hope. the bullpen has a solid base to build on with Duran, Jax, Sands, and Alcala but will need some reinforcement. I have hope for Varland, but he's not there yet and you simply can't count on Topa & Stewart with their injury histories. This season was worst-case for both, but you can't presume best case either.

I'd love for the Twins to get a high-end starter and raise the ceiling, but I don't expect investment from the latest edition of Cheap-Ass Pohlads.

[bean5302]

I don't understand the grades at all. In either article.

Lopez gets a C+ for being the "Ace" and the "Cy Young Favorite" with a 4.08 ERA and barely better than 50% quality starts. Lopez's ERA is almost always higher than his FIP. Lopez was a #1 who pitched like a #3 or #4. That's a D from me. Joe Ryan looked fantastic out of the gate (again), and flopped later before going down with an injury. Still, he put up the same bWAR as Lopez, and he did it for $760k.

Matthews gets an A. He started the year in High A ball, exploded up the national rankings. He wasn't ready, and the signs were there in AAA, but the Twins didn't have anything to fall back on so they put Matthews in... and then let him struggle.

Paddack gets an F. There's no world in which a 4.99 ERA from a veteran who was hitting a wall as the calendar turned to June, who couldn't even keep the Twins in a good spot for half his starts gets anything other than an F.

[Mike Sixel]

I get Jax wants to be PAID, but he's not a starter, imo.

I have to give these more thought to see if I agree, but generally fairish

[TwinsDr2021]

Most of these grades are kind of ridiculous IMO.

Sands gets an A but blew 33% of his save chances. Alcala blew 1 of 17 changes with a lower ERA in only about 13 innings difference. Yet A and C+. Lopez pitched 120 more innings with and ERA almost a full run lower than Festa yet B and C+ and Matthews gets the same?

Lopez, Ober and Ryan were good not Great. SWR was decent to good, the rest were viable at best.

Jax Great, Duran good to better than good, Sands and Alcala were decent to good, The rest of the relievers were terrible to not good.

 

 

[TwinsDr2021]

1 hour ago, Vanimal46 said:

Sands and Jax were both spectacular this season. I do wonder if they will ask one of them to build up stamina and return to the rotation? Morneau was talking about Jax’s goal to get back in the rotation during the Marlins’ series. 

Jax will be 30 and hasn't pitched 100 innings since 2019, moving him to a starter shouldn't be an option.

[DJL44]

43 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Lopez's ERA is almost always higher than his FIP. 

The defense behind him is not good. FIP assumes league average defense.

[Rosterman]

Wow. All over the place.

Lopez I expect to be a 16-14, 4.10 pitcher. Anything different is bad or good accordingly.

Ober is going to be a one bad inning pitcher. Ryan needs to control the pace of his game.

The young guys - SWR was amazing, but ran out of gas. Can he stay disciplined at his young age? Festa was the guy who never walked anyone. Welcome to the major leagues. He needs a strong 4th pitch and say he will work on it. If not, he'll be a strong bullpen arm going forwards.

Matthews was rushed. I like what I saw.

Alcala had an increased workload. Remember he only did a dozen or so innings over the past two seasons. He pitched fine, until he started tom wear down, partly from the pressure to be solid. Him, Jax, Duran, Sands gives the Twins a solid half-a-bullpen. Duran started late, tinkered with a pitch too often, but that should be better next season. Jax, please don't pull an Aggie and ask to start.

Varland needs to be a part of the bullpen. He bombed out of the chute because your starting routine is different than if you are just coming into a game. Headrick will the Twins dark horse, perhaps. A lefty who can pitch multiple innings, or just be a gem for one.

Paddack is that end of the rotation guy. Maybe not worth $7.5 million, but might be the best you can currently find for the team. But...he needs to give us innings.

Funderburk gets another shot because he is left-handed. But he needs to pitch better than he did if he wants to find any major league work ever ever again.

Thielbar was a $3.5 million F. Sorry. If the Twins needed to eat payroll, this was the time.

The Twins signed a host of guys: Jackson, Okert (trade), Staumont, Bowman, Tonkin, Irvin, Castillo. They acted accordingly.... jettisoning them, maybe a few too late. 

Josh WInder is still in the mix folks!

 

 

 

[bean5302]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

The defense behind him is not good. FIP assumes league average defense.

Career 3.65 FIP. Career 3.91 ERA. It's a career thing. Like Ricky Nolasco.

Also, 4.08 vs. 3.65 is a gap far too wide for the defense, so even if you built in Twins defensive woes, it wouldn't add up. Which defensive metric would you like? OAA? Twins = 0. Dead average. UZR? Most people around here hate that one, but it shows the Twins as the worst defense in MLB with -30 runs. DRS at -19 runs. The Twins pitched 1440.1 innings last year. Using OAA, FIP and ERA should be equal. Using UZR, ERA should be 0.18 higher than FIP. Using DRS, ERA should be 0.11 higher than FIP. Lopez is 0.43 higher. Doesn't add up.

After that, how about explaining how Lopez's FIP gap is larger than all the rest of the starters with 100+ innings like Ober (-0.18), Ryan (-0.18), and Woods Richardson (-0.05)? How is it guys like Ryan, and Ober have career FIPs so much closer to their ERAs as well?

Not sorry to trample on the Pablo Lopez, Ace who can single handedly win playoff series', Perennial Cy Young Favorite, Best pitcher in the history of baseball, guaranteed! movement around here.

[DJL44]

21 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

Varland needs to be a part of the bullpen. He bombed out of the chute because your starting routine is different than if you are just coming into a game.

They should plan on Varland spending the beginning of next season in AAA. He was terrible in the bullpen in September. Couldn't locate his pitches. Get him in the AAA bullpen and make sure he's effective before promoting him.

[Fire Dan Gladden]

21 minutes ago, Rosterman said:

The Twins signed a host of guys: Jackson, Okert (trade), Staumont, Bowman, Tonkin, Irvin, Castillo. They acted accordingly.... jettisoning them, maybe a few too late. 

 

 

 

Staumont, Bowman, Tonkin (along with Blewitt) actually pitched pretty well for the Twins.

Just saying...

[DJL44]

8 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Not sorry to trample on the Pablo Lopez, Ace who can single handedly win playoff series', Perennial Cy Young Favorite, Best pitcher in the history of baseball, guaranteed! movement around here.

Nice strawman you have there.

Top 5 Twins pitchers using WAR were

Ober 2.9

Jax 2.8

Lopez 2.5

Ryan 2.3

Woods Richardson 2.0

Jax was a reliever so I'm fine giving him an A but the other 4 starting pitchers shouldn't be more than one grade apart from each other. How does Woods-Richardson get the highest grade and Lopez the lowest?

Ober B+

Lopez B

Ryan B

Woods Richardson B-

Festa gets a D, Paddack a D- and Matthews gets an F.

[ashbury]

These grades must be based on expectations a year ago as baseline.  No way was Cole Sands better than Jhoan Duran. Duran was given the tough matchups.

The grades of F are well deserved.  Knowing who in the FO advocated for the two individuals acquired via free agency would count in the grades for those people too.

[adjacent]

You forgot Winder

[FlyingFinn]

Reminder in regards to the starters - all of them probably had their ERA inflated because the bullpen allowed one of the highest %'s of runners on base to score in MLB history. And that doesn't get reflected on the relievers ERA. Plus, as some mentioned, the bad defense after Buxton and Correa went down really affected our young pitchers as that is when most of them were called up to stay.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Nice strawman you have there...

Nice deflection, there. Obviously wasn't the point of my post. Sorry the facts didn't help your case.

[SaberNerd]

8 hours ago, Vanimal46 said:

Sands and Jax were both spectacular this season. I do wonder if they will ask one of them to build up stamina and return to the rotation? Morneau was talking about Jax’s goal to get back in the rotation during the Marlins’ series. 

I could absolutely see Jax moving to the rotation.  Sweeper and Changeup both miss bats, curveball and sinker are decent enough to serve as depth pitches.  Mainly would depend on how well his stuff holds up, and if the fastball survives the velo drop that would come with it.  Would likely average 94-5, which would be average.  If he would maintain an average fastball and command he's an above average starter.

Absolutely not on Sands.  He's extremely similar to Varland in that they both have good fastball/cutter and poor offspeed and breaking pitches.

[JD-TWINS]

12 hours ago, DJL44 said:

Pablo Lopez and Zebby Matthews get the same grade? That makes no sense.

Agree - apparently, what was anticipated/expected and how they performed against that expectation, that is the scale.

Starters, on a level curve: Ober B+ …. Lopez B- ….. Ryan B ……. Festa C ……… SWR C+ …….. Matthews C- ……..Paddack C ……. Varland D-

Pen is too big…….Duran C+ (1.16 WHIP - 3.64 ERA - 9 LOSSES) ……Jax A ……Sands A- ……..Alcala B- ……..rest of guys were all over the place and a bunch of it was poor.

 

In ‘25 Lopez needs to tighten things up some - B+ would be fine! Ober and Ryan keep doing what they did, with a bit more run support & all is good. SWR just needs to continue to refine - he’s 23!! Festa has stuff - needs more durability and maybe some off speed variant pitch. Maybe a curve every 10-12 pitches. His change-up is 90 - his slider is similar speed - fastball ……..needs a “once in a while” off speed pitch. New grip change-up?

Paddack - Varland - Sands could be a 3 headed middle relief bridge to Jax & Duran……..I like the two former starters in the Pen….. it could be the Team’s strength - they need one!!

[TwinsDr2021]

9 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Sands A-

SWR just needs to continue to refine - he’s 23!!

 

What am I missing about Sands, is it people thought he was trash so what he did was amazing? He blew 3 out of 12 save chances (25%), He was tied for 174th in MLB in holds.  Less than Brock Stewart, Okert and Trevor Richards and tied for 7th on the Twins with Funderbuck. His Inherited Runner % is 11/25 (44%). In a good pen he isn't a top 4 guy and in a bad pen he is a barely a top for guy.

With that said I like putting him in the 5th or 6th bullpen spot next year.

 

And SWR just turned 24. 😀

[Kenny Powers]

7 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

What am I missing about Sands, is it people thought he was trash so what he did was amazing? He blew 3 out of 12 save chances (25%), He was tied for 174th in MLB in holds.  Less than Brock Stewart, Okert and Trevor Richards and tied for 7th on the Twins with Funderbuck. His Inherited Runner % is 11/25 (44%). In a good pen he isn't a top 4 guy and in a bad pen he is a barely a top for guy.

With that said I like putting him in the 5th or 6th bullpen spot next year.

 

And SWR just turned 24. 😀

I think  it depends on what measuring stick you use.  You keep referring to blown saves.  Is that the best?  IDK.  One could argue that using that is a very small sample (12 "chances" based on what you wrote).  Should those 12 chances carry more weight than the total of 71 innings he threw?  Not in my book. 

His 71.1 innings was most among the relievers (just ahead of Jax).  Over the 71 innings he had a 3.28 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 10.72 K/9.  Those a pretty solid numbers for an old school guy like me.

[TwinsDr2021]

15 hours ago, Kenny Powers said:

I think  it depends on what measuring stick you use.  You keep referring to blown saves.  Is that the best?  IDK.  One could argue that using that is a very small sample (12 "chances" based on what you wrote).  Should those 12 chances carry more weight than the total of 71 innings he threw?  Not in my book. 

His 71.1 innings was most among the relievers (just ahead of Jax).  Over the 71 innings he had a 3.28 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 10.72 K/9.  Those a pretty solid numbers for an old school guy like me.

I guess I measure based on the other relief pitchers in the majors and the faith the team has in that pitcher. As for blown saves isn't that really a relief pitchers job when they are brought in the hold or save the game? Thielbar in his career for example has 71 hold/save chances and has blown 3, this is why Rocco and the Twins trust him.

This isn't meant as a rip on Sands, he had a pretty decent year, especially based on his expectations. But to have the same grade as Jax who was given 40 opportunities to hold/save a game or better grade than Duran who was given 32 and blow less than Sands is kind of crazy talk.

IMO Sands earns a C maybe C+ if you feel he should get extra credit from his starting spot. He is kind of a meh relief pitcher IMO, There are quite a few guys around the league like him, I would love for him to take the next step in the pen to be that shut down 7th inning type guy. But if some other team sees something in him and think they could turn him into a starter I would be OK trading him as well.

[Kenny Powers]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

I guess I measure based on the other relief pitchers in the majors and the faith the team has in that pitcher. As for blown saves isn't that really a relief pitchers job when they are brought in the hold or save the game? Thielbar in his career for example has 71 hold/save chances and has blown 3, this is why Rocco and the Twins trust him.

This isn't meant as a rip on Sands, he had a pretty decent year, especially based on his expectations. But to have the same grade as Jax who was given 40 opportunities to hold/save a game or better grade than Duran who was given 32 and blow less than Sands is kind of crazy talk.

IMO Sands earns a C maybe C+ if you feel he should get extra credit from his starting spot. He is kind of a meh relief pitcher IMO, There are quite a few guys around the league like him, I would love for him to take the next step in the pen to be that shut down 7th inning type guy. But if some other team sees something in him and think they could turn him into a starter I would be OK trading him as well.

You certainly have a right to your opinion and how you arrive at that opinion.  I view things a little differently than you though.  I think on every team (sports or corporate) people have a role.  Sand's role for this year was not to be the closer or set up guy.  He was going to be a low leverage/middle innings reliever and he performed very well in that role.  So I don't think his save totals matter much considering his role.  But for the record, according to MLB, he saved 4 out of 7 (57%) which was only slightly lower percentage than Jax (62%).  So neither guy was great using that measuring stick.  And while Theilbar has had success in other years, I'm not sure he was viewed as "trusted" this season...his ERA was over 5.  If he wasn't lefthanded, I don't think he would have remained on the roster.

I believe there is a lot of value in what Sands brings considering his current salary ($750K).  To be able to pull an in-house guy into that role is great for the organization.  You wrote "there are quite a few guys around the league" like Sands.  That might be true.  But the Twins sure can't seem to find them.  Think of some of the guys they traded for the last few years...they make Sands look like Rollie Fingers:  

Justin Topa  

Steven Okert.  

Trevor Richards.   

Jorge Lopez

Dylan Floro

Michael Fulmer