Guardians 5, Twins 4: Twins Waste Chances, Create Too Few, Cleveland Finds Chances Everywhere

[chpettit19]

33 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

 

What part of "use Lopez, Ober, Duran and Jax through the WS" is about last night's game?

 

Feels like a pretty direct response to the complaints that he used Henriquez. He has 4 good pitchers. Complaining that he had to use other ones is ridiculous. You're the president of the "there's no such thing as low leverage relievers" club. It's easy to say "don't use Henriquez there." Try actually coming up with a game plan to not ever have to use bad relievers in big spots when you have an offense that can't score more than 4 runs.

This is literally your entire pitch about bullpens and relievers. But it's still always Rocco's fault his players failed. Even when they're bad players because there was obviously a way he could have managed better so that his 2 good relief pitchers are always available in close games. It's a lazy take that shows up in every game thread and every recap. 

Duran has been used in 7 September games. The final difference in those games were all 3 runs or less. He hasn't been used in a blowout type game since August 24th. That was 10 appearances ago. Jax has thrown in 7 September games. Guess how many of those had a final difference of more than 3 runs. You're right! The answer is 0. Last time he appeared in a game with more than a 3 run difference was August 24th. 

It's easy to mock him. 

Now try coming up with answers that don't point to a game a month ago as the reason they're losing games now.

[Maybe Next Year]

12 hours ago, IndianaTwin said:

This makes them 4-7 in extra innings and 22-19 in one-run games. They have 37 comeback wins and this was their 32nd blown lead. 

My bad, in talking to some of my fellow Twins fans one of them said we were 4-12 or 4-14. I'm not saying 4-7 isn't bad but it is obviously nowhere near as bad as I was led to believe. 

[Cap'n Piranha]

2 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Both of you might be interested to learn Forbes ACTUAL current estimate of the Twins Franchise value:

$1.48B

One point four eight Billion dollars.

Not sure where other figures come from, but it's not Forbes.

https://www.forbes.com/lists/mlb-valuations/

 

Now how does the Pohlad family's "annualized return" look?

 

I appreciate you bringing this up Chief, as it made me go back to look, and realize that I made a calculation error.  At the 9.204% rate of return on the DJIA, Carl's $44M in 1984 is not worth $978M on the Dow.  It's worth $1.63B.

One point six three Billion dollars.

So the Pohlad family's annualized return (not sure why you did quotation marks, that's a perfectly legitimate financial metric) is still lower on the Twins than it would be if they had just put it all in the Dow and taken a 40 year long collective nap.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

You are losing money by opportunity cost.  You must realize this, right?...

You are not going to find any semblance of financial literacy among the general fanbase here or the public in the United States. I get your frustration, but most people can't even file a 1040EZ on their own.

[bean5302]

13 hours ago, Danchat said:

They optioned Alcala to get Irvin up? I must have missed that... baffling move. This team doesn't deserve to go to the playoffs. 

I don't think anybody answered you on this.

The Twins claimed Cole Irvin off waivers from Baltimore, who had DFA'd him because he was out of options and they had better pitching options.
In order to make room for Irvin on the 40 man, the Twins DFA'd Randy Dobnak.
In order to make room for Irvin on the 26 man, the Twins optioned Jorge Alcala.

[Cap'n Piranha]

1 hour ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

You make a very good case Capt'n.  I would add one thing.  If the owners are not even making what the market would provide in the way of profits, then why do they remain owners of this team?  Most team owners have huge egos and are fine with taking annual losses for the fame.  The Pohlads do not seem to have egos and could easily own a different less visible business and earn more and not take the heat on this site and others.

The underlying question is ... why do they do this knowing that they could make more and not be ridiculed by commenters? Only the Pohlads can answer this question.

I would assume part of why the Pohlads continue to own the Twins is because it's fun (I would think) to own a professional sports franchise.  But I would guess a bigger reason is that the Pohlads are able to generate profit pretty much every year which when combined with annual asset appreciation returns more money than a simple long-term broad index investment.  Even if it doesn't, they might prefer the liquidity that annual profit provides as opposed to the unrealized gains of the market.

As concerns ridiculing, I'm guessing the Pohlads don't care too much about the criticism of people they don't know or interact with.  When/if they feel bad, they probably just look at the Assets section of their balance sheet, and cheer up pretty quick.

[NYCTK]

6 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

You are not going to find any semblance of financial literacy among the general fanbase here or the public in the United States. I get your frustration, but most people can't even file a 1040EZ on their own.

No fan should ever, ever be concerned about a billionaire owners financial statements. 

Oh no! His asset only grew 9% annually ignoring "dividends" 😭

[Cap'n Piranha]

7 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

You are not going to find any semblance of financial literacy among the general fanbase here or the public in the United States. I get your frustration, but most people can't even file a 1040EZ on their own.

I guess I'm just a financial Cassandra.

[Cap'n Piranha]

Just now, NYCTK said:

No fan should ever, ever be concerned about a billionaire owners financial statements. 

Oh no! His asset only grew 9% annually ignoring "dividends" 😭

No fan is concerned about the Pohlads' wealth.  No one is passing the hat for the Pohlads because their asset growth is 9% (dividends have no relation to asset worth unless said dividends are immediately reinvested in said asset).  Pretending otherwise is disingenuous.

All I, or anyone else who agrees with me is saying, is that the Twins franchise valuation is not some incredible appreciation engine.  Based simply on return rate, it is a worse option than freely available market indexes, so if franchise valuation is your proof of Pohlad greed, you are advised to find another argument.  If the Pohlads are truly as greedy vis a vis accumulating assets as everyone suggests, liquidating their stake in the Twins in order to invest elsewhere would have happened years ago.

[NYCTK]

26 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I appreciate you bringing this up Chief, as it made me go back to look, and realize that I made a calculation error.  At the 9.204% rate of return on the DJIA, Carl's $44M in 1984 is not worth $978M on the Dow.  It's worth $1.63B.

One point six three Billion dollars.

So the Pohlad family's annualized return (not sure why you did quotation marks, that's a perfectly legitimate financial metric) is still lower on the Twins than it would be if they had just put it all in the Dow and taken a 40 year long collective nap.

Who gives a ****? Besides the Pohlad's themselves. It's interesting but you're obviously ignoring A) their income from their asset, and B) their direct impact on the value of the asset. 

The St. Louis Cardinals are in a smaller market and their "asset" is worth 2.55 B. The Brewers are in a much smaller market and their "asset" is worth $1.6B. The Seattle Mariners are in a comparable market and their "asset" is worth $2.2B. The San Diego Padres are in a comparable/smaller market and their "asset" is worth $1.78B. 

So, the fact that the Twins are ONLY worth $1.48B isn't some inherent thing. It's also due to the failures of the organization, ie, ownership. 

So wtf are we talking about the poor Pohlad's pitiful return on investment for? 

[Mike Sixel]

15 hours ago, USAFChief said:

When they added Irvin and optioned Alcala, they specifically said "we need length."

Alcala had gone more than 1 inning 11 times this season.

Irvin has thrown 3 pitches.

Ya, I don't get this.

Also, BRUTAL loss. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Feels like a pretty direct response to the complaints that he used Henriquez. He has 4 good pitchers. Complaining that he had to use other ones is ridiculous. You're the president of the "there's no such thing as low leverage relievers" club. It's easy to say "don't use Henriquez there." Try actually coming up with a game plan to not ever have to use bad relievers in big spots when you have an offense that can't score more than 4 runs.

This is literally your entire pitch about bullpens and relievers. But it's still always Rocco's fault his players failed. Even when they're bad players because there was obviously a way he could have managed better so that his 2 good relief pitchers are always available in close games. It's a lazy take that shows up in every game thread and every recap. 

Duran has been used in 7 September games. The final difference in those games were all 3 runs or less. He hasn't been used in a blowout type game since August 24th. That was 10 appearances ago. Jax has thrown in 7 September games. Guess how many of those had a final difference of more than 3 runs. You're right! The answer is 0. Last time he appeared in a game with more than a 3 run difference was August 24th. 

It's easy to mock him. 

Now try coming up with answers that don't point to a game a month ago as the reason they're losing games now.

Rp blows it. Santana leave 9 men on base and hits into a DP with a man on third, and it's the manager's fault. So tedious. So very tedious. 

[NYCTK]

7 minutes ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

No fan is concerned about the Pohlads' wealth.  No one is passing the hat for the Pohlads because their asset growth is 9% (dividends have no relation to asset worth unless said dividends are immediately reinvested in said asset).  Pretending otherwise is disingenuous.

All I, or anyone else who agrees with me is saying, is that the Twins franchise valuation is not some incredible appreciation engine.  Based simply on return rate, it is a worse option than freely available market indexes, so if franchise valuation is your proof of Pohlad greed, you are advised to find another argument.  If the Pohlads are truly as greedy vis a vis accumulating assets as everyone suggests, liquidating their stake in the Twins in order to invest elsewhere would have happened years ago.

I'm sorry. You're right. The Pohlad's don't care about money at all. That's why they increased payroll this past offseason. 

[Linus]

The thing that comes to mind for me is the old saying about making chicken salad out of chicken***t.  I thought maybe Rocco was going to use Varland for two innings but even that isn’t really a good second guess as Varland got lit up in the second inning of his last outing if I recall correctly. 

[Sjoski]

 https://www.statista.com/statistics/1125149/wealthiest-mlb-teams-owners/

# 6 on the list is the Dolan Brothers,  Guardians Owners. Yet, they are putting a better product on the field year to year. Just saying, it doesn't just come down to  money. 

Rosters are built via:  Draft choices, Trades, FA signings, Waiver Wire. 

I doubt anyone can find a GM in MLB that can top this trend of trading for injured pitchers.

Sam Dyson 2019 11.1 innings. ( Never to appeared in MBL again.)
Chris Paddack 105.2 innings over 3 years. Average of 35 inning a year for a starter.?
Kenta Maeda:  2021,  2nd year as Twin,  106 innings and out for the rest of 2021 and entire 2022 season.
Chris Paddack 2022-24 105.2 innings over 3 years. Average of 35 inning a year for a starter.?
Tyler Mahle 2022-23. Pitches a combined 42 innings and he's done. 

Justin Topa 2024 ZERO INNINGs
AnthonyDeSclafani 2024 ZERO INNINGS

How big of a dent have these trades put in the Twins future rosters?

Am I missing anyone....these are trades remember....just trades.....

Opposite side of the equation is trading away healthy pitchers like Ryan Pressly and Berrios, both 2X All-Stars.

[David Maro]

I don't think anyone on this site would be crying the blues if they had invested 44 million and turned it into 900 million. And much of that on the taxpayers back with them paying a large amount for Target Field.

[NYCTK]

24 minutes ago, Sjoski said:

 https://www.statista.com/statistics/1125149/wealthiest-mlb-teams-owners/

# 6 on the list is the Dolan Brothers,  Guardians Owners. Yet, they are putting a better product on the field year to year. Just saying, it doesn't just come down to  money. 

Rosters are built via:  Draft choices, Trades, FA signings, Waiver Wire. 

I doubt anyone can find a GM in MLB that can top this trend of trading for injured pitchers.

Sam Dyson 2019 11.1 innings. ( Never to appeared in MBL again.)
Chris Paddack 105.2 innings over 3 years. Average of 35 inning a year for a starter.?
Kenta Maeda:  2021,  2nd year as Twin,  106 innings and out for the rest of 2021 and entire 2022 season.
Chris Paddack 2022-24 105.2 innings over 3 years. Average of 35 inning a year for a starter.?
Tyler Mahle 2022-23. Pitches a combined 42 innings and he's done. 

Justin Topa 2024 ZERO INNINGs
AnthonyDeSclafani 2024 ZERO INNINGS

How big of a dent have these trades put in the Twins future rosters?

Am I missing anyone....these are trades remember....just trades.....

Opposite side of the equation is trading away healthy pitchers like Ryan Pressly and Berrios, both 2X All-Stars.

Guardians are just, top to bottom, a better organization. Scouting, development, etc. 

[USAFChief]

17 minutes ago, David Maro said:

I don't think anyone on this site would be crying the blues if they had invested 44 million and turned it into 900 million. And much of that on the taxpayers back with them paying a large amount for Target Field.

It's not $900M

The Twins are worth $1.5B

 

[Linus]

14 minutes ago, NYCTK said:

Guardians are just, top to bottom, a better organization. Scouting, development, etc. 

it would be hard to argue against that. It’s one reason why the Pohlads are nuts if they think we are going to thrive like the Rays or Cleveland with small payrolls. You have to have a top FO to pull that off. We do not have that. 

[TheLeviathan]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Feels like a pretty direct response to the complaints that he used Henriquez. He has 4 good pitchers. Complaining that he had to use other ones is ridiculous. You're the president of the "there's no such thing as low leverage relievers" club. It's easy to say "don't use Henriquez there." Try actually coming up with a game plan to not ever have to use bad relievers in big spots when you have an offense that can't score more than 4 runs.

This is literally your entire pitch about bullpens and relievers. But it's still always Rocco's fault his players failed. Even when they're bad players because there was obviously a way he could have managed better so that his 2 good relief pitchers are always available in close games. It's a lazy take that shows up in every game thread and every recap. 

Duran has been used in 7 September games. The final difference in those games were all 3 runs or less. He hasn't been used in a blowout type game since August 24th. That was 10 appearances ago. Jax has thrown in 7 September games. Guess how many of those had a final difference of more than 3 runs. You're right! The answer is 0. Last time he appeared in a game with more than a 3 run difference was August 24th. 

It's easy to mock him. 

Now try coming up with answers that don't point to a game a month ago as the reason they're losing games now.

Absolutely roasted.  Well done.

And evidence number 6 billion and one that the gripe-squad has no interest in discussion.  Or sanity.  Or reality.  None.  

[DJL44]

2 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I would assume part of why the Pohlads continue to own the Twins is because it's fun (I would think) to own a professional sports franchise.  But I would guess a bigger reason is that the Pohlads are able to generate profit pretty much every year which when combined with annual asset appreciation returns more money than a simple long-term broad index investment.  Even if it doesn't, they might prefer the liquidity that annual profit provides as opposed to the unrealized gains of the market.

It's also a pretty nice tax shelter.

[Nivaboy]

3 hours ago, bean5302 said:

You are not going to find any semblance of financial literacy among the general fanbase here or the public in the United States. I get your frustration, but most people can't even file a 1040EZ on their own.

wow imagine not being able to file a 1040EZ on your own... plebs

[TwinsAce]

1 hour ago, Sjoski said:

 https://www.statista.com/statistics/1125149/wealthiest-mlb-teams-owners/

# 6 on the list is the Dolan Brothers,  Guardians Owners. Yet, they are putting a better product on the field year to year. Just saying, it doesn't just come down to  money. 

Rosters are built via:  Draft choices, Trades, FA signings, Waiver Wire. 

I doubt anyone can find a GM in MLB that can top this trend of trading for injured pitchers.

Sam Dyson 2019 11.1 innings. ( Never to appeared in MBL again.)
Chris Paddack 105.2 innings over 3 years. Average of 35 inning a year for a starter.?
Kenta Maeda:  2021,  2nd year as Twin,  106 innings and out for the rest of 2021 and entire 2022 season.
Chris Paddack 2022-24 105.2 innings over 3 years. Average of 35 inning a year for a starter.?
Tyler Mahle 2022-23. Pitches a combined 42 innings and he's done. 

Justin Topa 2024 ZERO INNINGs
AnthonyDeSclafani 2024 ZERO INNINGS

How big of a dent have these trades put in the Twins future rosters?

Am I missing anyone....these are trades remember....just trades.....

Opposite side of the equation is trading away healthy pitchers like Ryan Pressly and Berrios, both 2X All-Stars.

I'm not sure why Maeda is being touted as a bad trade now? (Seems like that trade did about what we hoped out of it.)  And it seems misleading to ignore the Ryan, Lopez, and Gray trades since without those, we would have been so much worse.  Topa IMO doesn't deserve to be on here too (at least in regards to dent in future rosters), since we got rid of Polanco and received a decent prospect and Topa back for more than one year.

You are missing the Jorge Lopez trade though, which was the result of trading for a top BP guy.  I'm guessing that trade made the FO a bit more timid to trade for top BP arms during the year.

I do agree that trades (or draft picks) for pitching can be pretty painful at times.  Just take a look at the Dodgers trading for Glasnow or all of their injured starters at AA or MLB level.

Long term, the Twins have some pretty good pieces in place due to the same foundation you mention.  (Rosters are built via:  Draft choices, Trades, FA signings, Waiver Wire.)  The painful part will be if they continue to decrease the payroll after giving a taste of a higher $$ roster.

[KirbyDome89]

3 hours ago, Cap'n Piranha said:

I would assume part of why the Pohlads continue to own the Twins is because it's fun (I would think) to own a professional sports franchise.  But I would guess a bigger reason is that the Pohlads are able to generate profit pretty much every year which when combined with annual asset appreciation returns more money than a simple long-term broad index investment.  Even if it doesn't, they might prefer the liquidity that annual profit provides as opposed to the unrealized gains of the market.

As concerns ridiculing, I'm guessing the Pohlads don't care too much about the criticism of people they don't know or interact with.  When/if they feel bad, they probably just look at the Assets section of their balance sheet, and cheer up pretty quick.

Concur, but if that enhanced annual return or liquidity provides opportunities that $$ locked into a long-term investment doesn't, the Pohlad's aren't really "losing," money by not investing elsewhere. 

[mrcharlie]

There is something wrong here.

Pitchers can't pitch two days in a row out of the pen! Then get guys who can or will!!  This time of the season No Excuse!!

 

[bean5302]

6 hours ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Concur, but if that enhanced annual return or liquidity provides opportunities that $$ locked into a long-term investment doesn't, the Pohlad's aren't really "losing," money by not investing elsewhere. 

Are you suggesting a Stock Index Portfolio has a crawl out provision?

[KirbyDome89]

15 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Are you suggesting a Stock Index Portfolio has a crawl out provision?

No, I'm suggesting that opportunity cost doesn't equate to profit loss when the alternative route(s) also yield gains.