Matt Wallner Has Been Better Than You Think, in More Ways Than One

[Adam Friedman]

The young Twins slugger had to reset himself in Triple-A this spring. It required mental fortitude and a willingness to adjust, without losing what makes him special. It was hard work, but he did it.

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On Apr. 15, it seemed like 2024 would be a lost season for Matt Wallner. He had a putrid slash line of .080/.273/.240, fueled by a strikeout rate of over 50%. You cannot succeed as a hitter if you're striking out over half the time.

He was lost, and in just 33 plate appearances, he went from an exciting piece of the young Twins core to facing questions about whether he could even be a future regular. It seemed possible his 2023 performance could have just been an aberration. Then he worked through things, returned in early July, and everything changed.

The Resurgence
Since coming back, Wallner has been one of the best players in baseball. That's not because he stopped striking out. Over the period since coming back, the local product still sports an extremely high 33.3% strikeout rate. Still, that rate can be manageable, when he destroys baseballs; has an above-average walk rate; and gets hit by as many pitches as just about anybody--which is excellent, as long as he stays healthy. 

Overall, in this period, he has a .292/.399/.615 slash line. That puts him fourth in the league, trailing MVP candidates Aaron Judge, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., and Bobby Witt Jr. This run has been extraordinary.

The fuel behind this run has been Wallner obliterating baseballs. Since his return to the bigs on Jul. 7, he's been 6th in average exit velocity and first in barrel rate (the rate of all batted balls, which are hit hard at an optimal launch angle). That is pure destruction, and these numbers put him in the same class as Judge, Shohei Ohtani, and Juan Soto. It's what allows him to produce, despite his extreme swing-and-miss, the same way Miguel Sanó did during his best Twins seasons.

Wallner's Outlook
It seems as though many fans--and even the Twins organization, to an extent (indicated by their early demotion)--don't fully believe in Wallner. It might be the strikeouts; a notion that he's gotten special treatment as a Minnesotan, for some reason; or his rapid ascension. If fans are wrong and this is real, the Twins have a legitimate star on their hands, but can he sustain it?

It's obvious he's not quite this good a hitter (only Aaron Judge is), but whether he can be one of the game's better hitters is a legitimate question. His strikeout rate will always be high, so the question is whether he can be a great hitter despite that. 

There are signs he can overcome all the strikeouts, but he'd be blazing a new path by being a great hitter over many years with his profile. The players with the best hitting production in the last ten years with a strikeout rate of over 30% are Sanó, Franmil Reyes, and Joey Gallo. While Sanó and Gallo each had an All-Star appearance, neither's career arc sparks confidence that Wallner can sustain this. It will come down to either reducing strikeouts or continuing to crush baseballs--and to continuing to play great defense.

Like Gallo, Wallner is a deceptively excellent fielder, given his size and the stereotypes we attach to that offensive skill set. He had a bit of an adjustment period when he came up in 2022, and he's not the same player when stationed in left field, for some reason. As he's become something closer and closer to the regular right fielder, though, he's shown surprising speed in pursuit of fly balls; a good ability to cut the ball off in the gap and down the line; and a monster arm. Though his sample there is still small, it looks like he could easily be 10 runs better than an average right fielder in the field over a full season. That would be a boon to his value, whenever it fluctuates because of all those whiffs.

Wallner will come down to Earth, but if he maintains elite barrel and hard-hit rates, he can still be great. Whether he can be a regular for years to come relies on him being a unicorn of batted-ball quality, which is unlikely but possible. He has been phenomenal this season. We should recognize and enjoy that. Hopefully, he can keep it up enough to get the Twins into the playoffs, and to fuel a postseason run.

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[stringer bell]

I agree that Wallner is underrated as a fielder. While most everyone acknowledges his elite throwing arm, Wallner has above average speed and is much improved in his routes to the ball. 

As a hitter, it is all about making contact. If he strikes out less than a third of the time, the exit velocities and hard hit rates will bear a lot of fruit. 

[LambchoP]

He absolutely crushed the ball when he makes contact. With that cannon of an arm and improving defense I think he's a real good option for the everyday right field job next year, even against lefty pitchers. If Wallner can just keep his strikeout numbers within reason, like under 30 percent, I think he'll be a good power threat in the middle of our lineup. If he can stay healthy all year I think a line of .250 BA with 25-30 HR is well within his ability. Wallner, Buxton and Larnach/E Rodriguez/ Keirsey or Martin/Castro looks like a legit OF on paper. I still hope they sign a true CF as Buxton insurance. Someone who can hold down the OF for another year until we're sure Rodriguez and/or Rosario are ready for everyday big league at bats.

[tony&rodney]

Last season I opined early on that Wallner had good speed and a pretty good eye at the plate while improving as a fielder. Those comments only returned piles of down votes, scorn, and sarcasm.

Now that Wallner has been resurrected in the minds of Twins fans it is worth a reminder that he is still learning. He is not an excellent outfielder, but rather one who is still learning and close to average. He has become much better at reads and catching the ball on the run. A big weakness, which I traitorously shared with a NL base coach friend last season, was Wallner's slow transfer of ball to throwing hand; you could run on Matt last year. This has been effectively cleaned up and now his arm is actually very useful. 

I think the Twins should consider one of two options this offseason, one of them could begin now: 1) let Wallner play a full season (150+ games as a starter) to see once and for all what the guy can do on both sides of the ball against all pitchers .... or 2) find a team acutely in need of a power left-handed bat who has a really good right-handed bat/glove/wheels to exchange in a trade. I don't think #2 happens and I can't think of a guy right now. 

If Kepler is less than 100%, the time has come to just slide Matt Wallner into RF and into the middle of the lineup to see what ensues. There are 24 games left. I'm hoping he gets 100 more plate appearances by October.

[Karbo]

I don't think the Twins gave up on him this spring, I think they recognized his struggles and sent him down to get out if the bright lights of the MLB. Looks like they made the right move to me. I would like to see him get more at bats facing lefties though, to see if he can be a true regular, instead of a platoon player.

[jmlease1]

He's exceptionally well-suited to play RF, where his cannon of an arm plays up and his range is less of an issue. His speed is more than enough to cover the area, but it does take him a while to get going, so he's not going to do as well on those balls where you need a great jump to get there. that's not as important in RF, though. he'll handle the balls that he can get under just fine, and has the ability to play balls effectively off the wall and keep runners from freely advancing.

It's going to be interesting to see how he manages at the plate. He's right in his physical prime so it shouldn't be a surprise that a player who has always crushed baseballs is absolutely crushing baseballs. He's hitting the ball hard, he's hitting it in the air, and it goes a long way. If he makes enough contact, he should be able to do this, for as long as he's able to catch up to fastballs. I think where things fell apart for Sano was when the injuries started to take their toll and he couldn't catch up to the good fastball up in the zone any longer, but YMMV.

nothing wrong with having a player with a unique profile. Wallner has a full season's worth of MLB games under his belt now and has put up an OPS+ of 140. He's improved at the plate every season, despite the Ks. Maybe he's just a different guy?

[Schmoeman5]

Uh huh. The same comments about how much better Julien and Kirilloff were defensively have been made too. I will say that he has played better. If he improves that jump on the ball he'll be fine. The fact that he does have a strong arm helps overcome some of his shortcomings. And as long as he's a Twin and Rocco/Falvey are running the lineup he'll never be given that opportunity to play 140 or 150 games. This righty lefty bull has been in place for several years. If they do a 180 and change course it would signal they were wrong. So they'll continue throwing the Margot Martin and Garlick types out there. Even though I believe that's a crazy strategy 😳 

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I don't think the Twins gave up on him this spring, I think they recognized his struggles and sent him down to get out if the bright lights of the MLB. Looks like they made the right move to me. I would like to see him get more at bats facing lefties though, to see if he can be a true regular, instead of a platoon player.

Sending Wallner was absolutely the right move. It wasn't a putdown, he needed to adjust & that was where he needed to do it & he did. I've been frustrated by his development in the OF but he came back improved not only in his hitting but also his fielding. There's still improvement in his fielding & SOs that can be made but I'll take what he has to offer.

[Linus]

I’m willing to pencil in Wallner for RF next year. I’m not worried about the strikeouts as long as he obliterates the ball when making contact. You can’t have many guys with his profile but one or two is not a problem 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Quote

You cannot succeed as a hitter if you're striking out over half the time.

For "fun" I looked up every season in MLB with a strikeout rate above 40% and over 150 plate appearances. Unsurprisingly, each of the 15 such seasons have come in the last 10 years (Javy Baez was the first in 2014 - 229 PA at 41.5%). Only 4 seasons had an above average production by wRC+.

2021 Patrick Wisdom - 375 PA, 40.8 K%, 117 wRC+ (.823 OPS)

2022 Keston Hiura - 266 PA, 41.7 K%, 115 wRC+ (.765 OPS)

2023 Joey Gallo - 332 PA, 42.8 K%, 103 wRC+ (.741 OPS)

2020 Miguel Sano - 205 PA, 43.9 K%, 101 wRC+ (.757 OPS)

[Road trip]

He's the only player on the active roster that for me has "must watch his at bat" during the game.  Arraez used to be that.  Buxton when he was younger and healthier.  Thome when we had him.  Kirby.

It isn't because you are certain something good is going to happen.  It's just because you know you there is a chance you might see something special.

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Linus said:

I’m willing to pencil in Wallner for RF next year. I’m not worried about the strikeouts as long as he obliterates the ball when making contact. You can’t have many guys with his profile but one or two is not a problem 

They could bring back Joey Gallo and put him in left.

[USAFChief]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

They could bring back Joey Gallo and put him in left.

I'd prefer him to Margot. At least Gallo can play the position, and he'll run into one every other month or so.

[twinstalker]

His early season slash: .080/.273/.240.

Half the batting average and 2/3 the slug were due to hitting a home run off a position player lobbing the pitch to him.  That's how bad he was.

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, twinstalker said:

His early season slash: .080/.273/.240.

Half the batting average and 2/3 the slug were due to hitting a home run off a position player lobbing the pitch to him.  That's how bad he was.

Horrible start for him. Has rebounded nicely. 

159 PA's

132 PA's vs RHP

27 PA's vs LHP

.294 BA

.304 BA vs RHP

.250 BA vs LHP

9 HR 1 per 17.6 PA's

8 HR vs RHP 1 per 16.5 PA's

1 HR vs LHP 1 Per 27 PA's  

.396 OBP

.409 OBP vs RHP

.333 OBP vs LHP

.603 SLG

.634 SLG vs RHP

.458 SLG vs LHP

.999 OPS

1.043 OPS vs RHP

.792 OPS vs LHP

33.3 K%

31.8 K% vs RHP

40.7 K% vs LHP

44.6 Hard Hit%

42.9 Hard Hit% vs RHP

53.8 Hard HIt% vs LHP

.419 BABIP

.419 BABIP vs RHP

.417 BABIP vs LHP

After two hits against a left hander last night... In his limited small sample size PA's against LHP (which makes the stat very volatile and prone to swings positive or negative) his OPS is currently better than the following hitters that stand in the right handed batters box. 

Manual Margot

Brooks Lee

Kyle Farmer

Willi Castro

Austin Martin

Jose Miranda

Christian Vazquez 

Play the guy every day!!! Get him continued looks at lefty pitching. We have less than a month to get him ready for the playoffs.

Wallner will be important in the playoffs. 

 

[joefish]

His numbers may spin up nicely, but Eye'm not yet convinced of anything other then he still reminds me of Gallo. 

Hope.