Final: Tigers 7, Twins 2 - Baez Blasts Twins Again

[Ted Schwerzler]

The Minnesota Twins got a quick lead when Royce Lewis made his presence felt against Tarik Skubal. The Tigers starter may have made his last appearance for Detroit, and he'll go out on a good note if that's the case.

Image courtesy of © Brian Bradshaw Sevald-USA TODAY Sports

Box Score
SP: Joe Ryan 6.0 IP, 4 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 8 K (89 pitches, 56 strikes, 15 whiffs)
Home Runs: Royce Lewis(11)
Bottom 3 WPA: Brock Stewart (-.146), Byron Buxton (-.102), Joe Ryan (-.089)

Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Royce Sends Skubal Out
After Saturday evening the Minnesota Twins have just a single game left against the Detroit Tigers this season. Tarik Skubal was on the bump, as a leading Cy Young candidate for the American League, but he could be making his last start for A.J. Hinch’s club. A top-tier trade candidate, it remains to be seen if someone will pay the ransom, but he could be had.

Just back from the injured list on Friday night, Royce Lewis settled in by blasting a two-run shot to score Manuel Margot in the first inning. Lewis’ 11th of the season happened in just his 26th game. Staying healthy is the focus, but he will continue to impact the lineup any time he is in it.

Jose Miranda, who was activated today, got found in the bottom of the first inning by Matt Vierling. A bobble on the grounder allowed the Tigers batter to reach base. Detroit pushed him around and answered with a run of their own. Vierling was again trouble in the sixth inning when his leadoff single positioned him to score on Colt Keith’s triple, tying the game at two. A sacrifice fly from Mark Canha gave the Tigers their first lead.

Javy Baez Good, Only Against Twins
After allowing a home run to Javier Baez yesterday, the Twins allowed the Detroit shortstop to get them again today. Brock Stewart took over for Joe Ryan in the seventh inning, and the reliever served up a two-run -run dinger. It was Baez’s fourth home run of the season, his third consecutive game with a home run, and three of four have come against Minnesota. Despite being terrible against everyone else, he continues to get the Twins. Stewart just returned from a lengthy injury absence, and tonight it was clear the usual 97 mph velocity on his fastball and sinker was nowhere to be found.

Steven Okert came on to replace Stewart after just two outs, and his leaky stuff continued to show cracks. Despite facing a lefty in Keith, the slider flipper gave up a two-run homer to put Detroit up 7-2. If it wasn’t evident that Rocco Baldelli’s bullpen needed left-handed relief help before the trade deadline, the roster continues to prove that point.

Minnesota had no answer for the four-run seventh inning and dropped game two of the series. The Twins got two hits from Lewis and Carlos Santana, but went 0-for-4 with runners in scoring position while leaving six on base.

Notes
Edouard Julien was the odd man out for the Twins with Jose Miranda returning to the lineup. He went just 2-for-12 during his five-game stint with Minnesota. He has been trending up the past three weeks at Triple-A, but it was a tough look while back in the big leagues.

With both Jazz Chisholm Jr.   (Yankees) and Luis Arraez (Padres) having now been traded by the Miami Marlins, former Twins utility man Nick Gordon is the last man standing among the three close teammates.

Zebby Matthews, who’s pitching Saturday in his second Saints start, was just elevated to top 100 prospect status. With graduations taking place throughout the year, he joins Luke Keaschall as players to make it on the MLB Pipeline Top 100 since Opening Day took place.

 

What’s Next?
Bailey Ober starts game three for the Twins on Sunday afternoon. The Tigers have yet to announce a starter, but both the series and season series will be on the line. Going into the final game, Minnesota owns a +2 run differential.

Postgame Interviews

 

Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet

 

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[Parfigliano]

Ryan goes 6 innings giving up 3 runs.  A quality start.  Somehow that = negative .089 WPA.  

[mikelink45]

32 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Ryan goes 6 innings giving up 3 runs.  A quality start.  Somehow that = negative .089 WPA.  

 

32 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Ryan goes 6 innings giving up 3 runs.  A quality start.  Somehow that = negative .089 WPA.  

WPA is another one of the alphabet stats that I really don't pay any attention to. I'm glad it entertains some

[mikelink45]

I could not understand a trade the Detroit would make for this pitcher. It's almost impossible to sign an ace and they have one. Build around them is all I can think. 

[USAFChief]

1 minute ago, mikelink45 said:

I could not understand a trade the Detroit would make for this pitcher. It's almost impossible to sign an ace and they have one. Build around them is all I can think. 

I doubt Skubal is moved. Why would they?

[bean5302]

1 hour ago, Parfigliano said:

Ryan goes 6 innings giving up 3 runs.  A quality start.  Somehow that = negative .089 WPA.  

It's a "quality start" in name only.

ERA 4.50 isn't all that "quality" over only 6.0 innings since you'd expect an additional run to be scored against a bullpen in the next 3 innings. Meaning the team the QS pitcher plays for is likely going to need to score at least 5 runs to win, which is less than 50% odds.

Also, I don't know why people keep bringing up WPA. There have to be at least 100 comments explaining how it works at this point. It's basically a more advanced "clutch" stat. When Joe Ryan entered the game, the Twins had x% chance of winning. When he left the game, the Twins had y% chance of winning (lower than when Ryan entered so it's a negative value).

[bean5302]

56 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I doubt Skubal is moved. Why would they?

I think it depends on whether or not they get a Chris Sale style haul for him, and whether or not Detroit feels they're going to be competitive in the next year. This year has been a little disappointing for them so far. Trading Skubal seems pretty far fetched to me as well.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

I could not understand a trade the Detroit would make for this pitcher. It's almost impossible to sign an ace and they have one. Build around them is all I can think. 

Have to be crazy to trade him.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Skubal is one of the top 5 starters in baseball. Detroit can keep him through 2026. They are close, maybe even playoff competitive next year. Why on earth would they trade him?

If he’s available, they can have any two Twins prospects not named Lee or Jenkins. Today. 

[theBOMisthebomb]

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Ryan goes 6 innings giving up 3 runs.  A quality start.  Somehow that = negative .089 WPA.  

 

6 hours ago, bean5302 said:

It's a "quality start" in name only.

It was a quality start and deserving. Vierling's leadoff "single" in the first was an error and the run should have been unearned. 

The triple by Keith in the 6th was bad luck on the bounce and wouldn't have scored if it would have been the expected double. 

Joe Ryan earned a quality start. 

[William K Johnson]

8 hours ago, Parfigliano said:

Ryan goes 6 innings giving up 3 runs.  A quality start.  Somehow that = negative .089 WPA.  

Agree with Blyleven that a quality start ought to be two or fewer runs over seven innings.   Also, why is Miranda playing third?

[Karbo]

8 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

I could not understand a trade the Detroit would make for this pitcher. It's almost impossible to sign an ace and they have one. Build around them is all I can think. 

Agreed, but it's fun to dream about him in the Twins rotation!

[Doctor Gast]

IMO Ryan pitched a quality game- 6 innings, 3 runs & 8Ks. This probably wasn't Steward's best situation to ease back into MLB, especially with Okert relieving him. Staumont proved himself again. A disappointing game.

[Mark G]

55 minutes ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

 

It was a quality start and deserving. Vierling's leadoff "single" in the first was an error and the run should have been unearned. 

The triple by Keith in the 6th was bad luck on the bounce and wouldn't have scored if it would have been the expected double. 

Joe Ryan earned a quality start. 

I agree that Joe deserved better.  But I think the discussion is more a micro vs macro thing.  On the micro level, each start by any pitcher can be analyzed and picked apart, like the ones where a pitcher gives up 6 runs, but only 3 are earned because the 3rd out of the 6th inning was booted, but then he gives up a walk and a 3 run dinger.  The 3 are unearned, technically, but he should have been able to stop the bleeding.  And then there are the ones like Joe yesterday, where, again, he deserved the stat.

On the macro end, the concept of a stat known as a "quality" start is in the eye of the beholder, and some have a point that a 4.50 ERA falls short of "quality" overall. I have a tendency to come down on that end, but the discussion is always interesting.   

[Jeff K]

It's probably too soon to be concerned about Brock Stewart; however, we certainly need him to return to form.  

[HarmonK03]

Which Stewart are we going to get, the pre 2023 version or the 2023 version.  He has never pitched over 34 innings in a season and hasn't had success until 2023 over 27 innings.  Can we really count on him, has he found something.  I think counting on him to be anything more than a mid inning reliever until you can see more sustained success is a gamble. 

[Whitey333]

Interesting game.  Twins kept it close until they didnt.  Skubal is awesome and should remain in Detroit.  Hoping the Twins win Sunday.  I believe Detroit is doing a bullpen game today.  I think the game will swing largely on how Rocco manages an apparent bullpen game by the opposition.  He usually gets out managed in those games.

 

[Old Twins Hat]

56 minutes ago, karcherd said:

Which Stewart are we going to get, the pre 2023 version or the 2023 version.  He has never pitched over 34 innings in a season and hasn't had success until 2023 over 27 innings.  Can we really count on him, has he found something.  I think counting on him to be anything more than a mid inning reliever until you can see more sustained success is a gamble. 

In theory, the Twins, once Topa is activated, will have two sets of high quality relievers.  Alcala, Jax and Duran for the games they are leading.  Topa, Sands and Stewart for games where it remains close.

Okert, Thielbar and Staumont .... well, someone will need to get cut and the other two can do mop up.

But, bullpen could be strong down the stretch.

Jax and Duran have actually been less than lockdown for much of the season so who knows what Rocco will go with.

[Blyleven2011]

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

It's probably too soon to be concerned about Brock Stewart; however, we certainly need him to return to form.  

After Stewart's  turn ended , Baldelli  had a talk in dugout and probably encouraged him that he is still the high leverage man after he gets the kinks straightened  out  ...

[LambchoP]

I think the Twins need bullpen help at the deadline more than they need rotation help. Theilbar and Okert can not be counted on at all. Stewart may take another outing or two to get back to himself but I think he'll be fine. Topa is a wild card, he could help out or he could be a bust. What we do know for sure is that we need a quality lefty, preferably two lefties for our bullpen if we're going to win playoff series.

[bean5302]

5 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

 

It was a quality start and deserving. Vierling's leadoff "single" in the first was an error and the run should have been unearned. 

The triple by Keith in the 6th was bad luck on the bounce and wouldn't have scored if it would have been the expected double. 

Joe Ryan earned a quality start. 

The term "quality start" originates from the idea the start gives the team a good chance to win the game, and that origin dates back to 1985 where pitchers routinely went 7-8 innings and 6 innings was a short outing.

When allowing 3 runs, 6 innings vs 7-8 innings actually makes a huge impact on game outcomes as the bullpen wouldn't be expected to give up a run in 1-2 innings, though they would be expected to give one up over 3 innings, statistically.

If you need 4 runs to win the game, the team will win 60% of the time. If you need 5 runs to win the game, the team wins 40% of the time. I tend to view starts of 5 innings or more with an ERA of under 4.00 as "quality" in my book in the current time frame.

So while Joe Ryan totally earned a "quality start" the 3 runs in 6 innings didn't give the Twins a great chance to win the game, though it wasn't a bad start by any means, either.