The Chopping Block--40-man Roster

[stringer bell]

The Twins have a full 40-man roster with one player (Justin Topa) currently on the 60-day IL that is likely to be put on the active roster within a month. Also, if any non-roster player is promoted from St. Paul, someone will have to be taken off the 40-man roster. In the (IMHO) unlikely event that the Twins add at the trading deadline, they'll also have to make room on the 40-man roster. Who should come off if space is needed? Here is my list:

1) Josh Winder--I have always thought of Winder and Sands together, with Winder having the better chance of establishing himself as a major leaguer. Winder is close to out of chances, at least with the Twins. Winder has had injury issues for each of the last three years and when he has been healthy enough to pitch, he hasn't been consistently effective. He's moved to the bullpen, but hasn't really improved his performance and he's almost 28 years old with little success at the highest level.

2) Brent Headrick--HWheadrick was limited to eight plus innings of triple A pitching before coming down with the dreaded "forearm tightness". AFAIK, he didn't have surgery, but he hasn't pitched since early April. A healthy Headrick might have some value, but his roster spot has value that he isn't earning if he can't pitch.

3) Matt Canterino--Similar to Headrick, he hasn't been able to pitch this year and this isn't his first bout of arm trouble. At some point, the Twins will probably have to cut bait with a guy with electric stuff who can't get or stay healthy.

4) Manuel Margot--I had him on the chopping block for the active roster so he must be there for the 40-man as well. The 0-25 as a pinch hitter and diminished defense takes away from acceptable productions as a platoon piece.

5) Kyle Farmer--Currently on the IL, but a candidate for DFA and loss of a 40-man roster spot. IMHO, Father Time is winning the battle with Farm Dog before he turns 34.

6) Steven Okert--A lefty specialist when the rules minimize the importance of specializing in retiring lefties.

7) Caleb Thielbar--Also losing the battle with the undefeated Father Time. 

8) Jair Camargo--While it is necessary to have a third catcher available, if the Twins won't use him when he's on their active roster, does he really have any future? The 40-man roster spot has value and he isn't trusted to catch or hit. The Saints have three other catchers on their roster. If the Twins need to purchase a contract of a catcher, any of the other three can do what Camargo has done for the Twins.

[Mike Sixel]

That list looks about right.....

[Dman]

I would try to move Winder as he just doesn't seem to have the stuff right now and who knows if he ever will.

Since the Twins added Lee to the 40 man I see no reason to keep Farmer on the 40 man unless you don't need the room or think you can't find enough playing time for Lee.

If you really, really need the extra room I could see them trading or moving on from Headrick.  Even at his best he seemed average to below average in his role.  I still think he has good potential though so the player(s) they get would need to be worth it.

Margo has been good against lefties. Unless you think Martin is as good an option you hang onto him, but I Wouldn't mind moving on from him.

We don't have much for better options than Thielbar and Okert for lefties.  Unless we are trading for one I assume we keep them and hope they perform better down the stretch?

Not moving Camargo as there is virtually nothing behind him.  My order would be

1) Winder

2)Farmer

3) Headrick

4) Okert

5) Margo

6) Thielbar

7) Canterino

8) Camargo

[Linus]

No quibbles other than they have to keep Camargo. While I wouldn’t count on him I wouldn’t give up on Canterino unless absolutely forced to. I would love to add Margot to the list but Martin just won’t seize the opportunity. 

[stringer bell]

18 minutes ago, Dman said:

Not moving Camargo as there is virtually nothing behind him.  My order would be

 

What do the Twins have in Camargo? From what I've seen he is a guy willing to put on the tools of ignorance who might run into a fat pitch once in a while. How is that different from Chris Williams or Alex Isola or Patrick Winkel? For that matter, how is it different from a dozen or so AAAA catchers who don't currently have an employer? I sincerely question Camargo's value when he just isn't used when called up. To summarize, I agree with you that there isn't much good in the upper minors for the Twins, but I don't think Camargo is good enough to be on a 40-man roster.

[ashbury]

For a team with post-season pretensions, we sure have a lot of dead wood and/or underperforming youth.

[Dman]

26 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

What do the Twins have in Camargo? From what I've seen he is a guy willing to put on the tools of ignorance who might run into a fat pitch once in a while. How is that different from Chris Williams or Alex Isola or Patrick Winkel? For that matter, how is it different from a dozen or so AAAA catchers who don't currently have an employer? I sincerely question Camargo's value when he just isn't used when called up. To summarize, I agree with you that there isn't much good in the upper minors for the Twins, but I don't think Camargo is good enough to be on a 40-man roster.

He's been injured a bit this year and his power is down.  Last year he hit .300 in three of the 6 months he played and his OPS was around .900 a few months as well.  Granted that was with the automatic Strike zone.  He K's too much and walks too little so it is a HR power or bust bat type, but for catchers the bar is low on the hitting side anyway.  I think there is a chance he can be an above average offensive catcher in time.

Defense probably more average so to your point yeah pretty replaceable.  Nothing special there with a backup catcher profile.  What you are getting though is someone you can move up and down at will without needing to go through waivers and what not and he is dirt cheap.

I haven't watched Williams, Isola or Winkel behind the plate recently but I  would take Camargo over any of them given what I have seen when I watched them.

While they certainly could take him off I still think he'd be the last guy. Maybe Canterino would be last.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

11 minutes ago, ashbury said:

For a team with post-season pretensions, we sure have a lot of dead wood and/or underperforming youth.

On the 40 man LOL.   

[IaBeanCounter]

Margo's 0-25 pinch hitting isn't close to the record, I was surprised who was number 1 

 

Longest hitless streaks

1. Chris Davis, 2018-19: 0 for 54 ABs
2. Eugenio Velez, 2010-11: 0 for 46 ABs
3. Bill Bergen, 1909: 0 for 45 ABs
4. Dave Campbell, 1973: 0 for 45 ABs
5. Craig Counsell, 2011: 0 for 45 ABs

[Doctor Gast]

I really like your list Stringer. Most of the deadwood we could cut right away. Canterino, I would wait a little longer hoping he can eventually make it in the BP. But yeah, his hourglass is near the end.

[jorgenswest]

2 hours ago, stringer bell said:

What do the Twins have in Camargo? From what I've seen he is a guy willing to put on the tools of ignorance who might run into a fat pitch once in a while. How is that different from Chris Williams or Alex Isola or Patrick Winkel? For that matter, how is it different from a dozen or so AAAA catchers who don't currently have an employer? I sincerely question Camargo's value when he just isn't used when called up. To summarize, I agree with you that there isn't much good in the upper minors for the Twins, but I don't think Camargo is good enough to be on a 40-man roster.

How does his defense compare to the other three? Isola has caught 1 game this year. He isn’t a catcher. Winkel has caught much more this year throwing out 13% of runners. That is half of Camargo’s AAA rate.  I think Camargo is pretty different than those two. Perhaps Williams is close to Camargo. Not sure about the other critical parts of his catcher game. I guess they could pick up a Martin Maldonado or similar if an injury were to occur.

I would have put Camargo on the 40 man roster. There are several on your list that I would remove before I would remove Camargo but if they need to remove that many he can go too.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, IaBeanCounter said:

Margo's 0-25 pinch hitting isn't close to the record, I was surprised who was number 1 

 

Longest hitless streaks

1. Chris Davis, 2018-19: 0 for 54 ABs
2. Eugenio Velez, 2010-11: 0 for 46 ABs
3. Bill Bergen, 1909: 0 for 45 ABs
4. Dave Campbell, 1973: 0 for 45 ABs
5. Craig Counsell, 2011: 0 for 45 ABs

I tried to tease this information out from b-r.com's Stathead tool, but misused it or something because I never came up with anything close to what I was asking.  Did you find this at some website, or have a good way of doing the primary research yourself?

[stringer bell]

47 minutes ago, ashbury said:

I tried to tease this information out from b-r.com's Stathead tool, but misused it or something because I never came up with anything close to what I was asking.  Did you find this at some website, or have a good way of doing the primary research yourself?

I think the list provided was all-time hitless streaks and not all-time hitless pinch hitting streaks. I know Davis had the longest hitless streak for a non-pitcher and I believe that is was 54 at-bats. 

[IaBeanCounter]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

I tried to tease this information out from b-r.com's Stathead tool, but misused it or something because I never came up with anything close to what I was asking.  Did you find this at some website, or have a good way of doing the primary research yourself?

I just googled longest pinch hitting at bats without a hit

[IaBeanCounter]

32 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I think the list provided was all-time hitless streaks and not all-time hitless pinch hitting streaks. I know Davis had the longest hitless streak for a non-pitcher and I believe that is was 54 at-bats. 

You mat be correct

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, stringer bell said:

Jair Camargo--While it is necessary to have a third catcher available, if the Twins won't use him when he's on their active roster, does he really have any future? 

I could have dinner with Rocco and he could try to explain Camargo's presence on the 26 man. He could use charts, graphs, speak very slowly, clearly and I still wouldn't understand.

He's glued to the bench with Vazquez and his .515 OPS seemingly too valuable to yield playing time. 

I'm sure 7 AB's is all he needs to be ready for an injury to one of our catchers the final week of the season when every game decides our playoff fate. 

He's going to be well prepared to help to us all of sudden in the playoffs because of an injury to one of our catchers right before the playoffs begin... Full of confidence I'm sure because Rocco has shown him that he believes in him. 

Yeah I know... Camargo wouldn't have to play in the playoffs because we have Vazquez to play every day instead. 

 

[ashbury]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

I think the list provided was all-time hitless streaks and not all-time hitless pinch hitting streaks. I know Davis had the longest hitless streak for a non-pitcher and I believe that is was 54 at-bats. 

Gosh darn it all to flipping heck.  I figured out my main mistake from yesterday and tried again.. I think I'm really close to answering this question by using Stathead, but now we may have a slight problem with definitions, or possibly software bugs, or both

In several cases, Margot has come into the game as a pinch-hitter, but then stayed in as the defensive replacement.  When I ask Stathead for a streak and specify pinch-hitting appearances, it seems that it only looks at games where the hitter came in and then was immediately replaced the next inning (most often for the pitcher, historically).

For anyone who's paid for Stathead, this link may give you my starting point and let you experiment.

For almost everyone else probably, you can have a look at the results here.

But to summarize: the player with the longest hitless streak when "strictly" pinch-hitting is Charlie Gilbert, a 1940s journeyman who flailed his way through 50 fruitless attempts. Or maybe it was 57 - there could be a bug in the database or the software that presents itself. Oh goody, another bug report to send to my good friends there. (It's a SABR project and I do like to support it every way I can.)

So maybe Charlie Gilbert, maybe not, but our good friend Margot is likely very far from setting any all-time records.

Second on the list is Mike Mordecai from 1997 to 2000, playing for Atlanta and Montreal, with 40 hitless appearances.

Our other good friend Billy Martin shows up high in this list too, at 33 failures spread across 1950 through 1961.  You know, the more I look at this, the less I trust the results - would the Yankees have kept trying him so many times?  I'll have to get back to y'all on this; it will likely take days and I know you're all waiting breathlessly.  😀

 

[ashbury]

25 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I could have dinner with Rocco and he could try to explain Camargo's presence on the 26 man.

You use the word "could" in two different ways in one sentence, one slightly more probable than the other.  If you manage to score dinner with the man, please consider finding a way I can tag along too.

[Riverbrian]

7 hours ago, ashbury said:

You use the word "could" in two different ways in one sentence, one slightly more probable than the other.  If you manage to score dinner with the man, please consider finding a way I can tag along too.

About a year ago... in an attempt to get past a tenseness in the air. I constructed a single sentence with 5 coulds. It was a personal best. 

I was unable to convince Rocco to join me for dinner but he did agree to a road trip clown car style to Red Wing. I can (could) uncomfortably fit 4 people in the back of my Kia.

August 1... have your questions ready. 

[ashbury]

A quick followup: the kind folks at b-r.com answered my question overnight, to say that their Stathead tool can't be used for what I want.  It tracks streaks of games, but not streaks of individual plate appearances.

Even though the answer was in the negative, I appreciate their dedication so much!

[Eric Blonigen]

I would say Canterino will stay on the 40-man for at least another season. With his arm, he would likely be a setup-caliber guy, if not better. From a stuff standpoint, he's one of the best pitchers we have in the entire system.

Camargo is also a lock to stay on the 40-man for another season, or until one of the guys in the lower minors is ready.

The front office won't just DFA Margot or Farmer, those guys will likely either be traded or their contracts will expire at the end of the season.

Headrick is on the 60-day IL, and isn't taking a 40-man spot currently (although would be a DFA candidate when he returns). Winder can also likely be DFAd with little risk.

I wouldn't be shocked if Thielbar or Okert were DFAd at the deadline if we need the roster spots.

[stringer bell]

2 hours ago, Eric Blonigen said:

I would say Canterino will stay on the 40-man for at least another season. With his arm, he would likely be a setup-caliber guy, if not better. From a stuff standpoint, he's one of the best pitchers we have in the entire system.

Camargo is also a lock to stay on the 40-man for another season, or until one of the guys in the lower minors is ready.

The front office won't just DFA Margot or Farmer, those guys will likely either be traded or their contracts will expire at the end of the season.

Headrick is on the 60-day IL, and isn't taking a 40-man spot currently (although would be a DFA candidate when he returns). Winder can also likely be DFAd with little risk.

I wouldn't be shocked if Thielbar or Okert were DFAd at the deadline if we need the roster spots.

Headrick is on the minor league 60-day IL and is taking a spot on the 40-man roster.

[wabene]

Will the Twins make a move at the deadline? Maybe. Due to payroll concerns it is possible, or likely, that someone is moved in the transaction. So even if the Twins add 2 players, they may just need 1 or less spots. A list of 4 possibilities should more than suffice. I would have Margot and Farmer at the top of they could actually get someone to take them. They are lower on my list because I don't see the Twins just releasing them. Margot being payed less is higher as a result.

1. Josh Winder. No offense to Mr Winder, but he has had many chances. 

2. Daniel Duarte. We got him on waivers and have already passed him through once ourselves. We would likely get him back.

3. Manny Margot. He isn't owed much and can be easily replaced by younger players.

4. Brent Hendrick. Tough to give up on a young lefty, but outside of his first couple of appearances the results haven't been there.

[stringer bell]

37 minutes ago, wabene said:

Will the Twins make a move at the deadline? Maybe. Due to payroll concerns it is possible, or likely, that someone is moved in the transaction. So even if the Twins add 2 players, they may just need 1 or less spots. A list of 4 possibilities should more than suffice. I would have Margot and Farmer at the top of they could actually get someone to take them. They are lower on my list because I don't see the Twins just releasing them. Margot being payed less is higher as a result.

1. Josh Winder. No offense to Mr Winder, but he has had many chances. 

2. Daniel Duarte. We got him on waivers and have already passed him through once ourselves. We would likely get him back.

3. Manny Margot. He isn't owed much and can be easily replaced by younger players.

4. Brent Hendrick. Tough to give up on a young lefty, but outside of his first couple of appearances the results haven't been there.

Duarte, Winder and Headrick are all making minimum salary or close to it. Dropping them for salary relief doesn't make much sense. If you are discussing making room on the 40-man roster, Duarte isn't on it (60-day IL).

[wabene]

36 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

Duarte, Winder and Headrick are all making minimum salary or close to it. Dropping them for salary relief doesn't make much sense. If you are discussing making room on the 40-man roster, Duarte isn't on it (60-day IL).

Oh yeah I forgot about 60 day guys being removed even though they are listed on the MLB 40 man list. Just have to read the fine print.

Duarte, Winder and Headrick were listed as DFA candidates for 40 man room not salary relief. For salary relief of course I was referring to a trade of Margot or Farmer. A trade is the only way I think they would cut ties with Margot or Farmer. A trade was my whole rationale for only listing 4 players. A trade is the most likely way they add anyone and they will be looking for salary relief if they add anyone making MLB money. They will have a hard time getting anyone to take Margot or Farmer making any move less likely.

Updated list

1. Winder 

2. Margot

3. Farmer

4. Headrick

Edit: The competitive balance money that may be available could make it more likely they make a move that isn't dependant on moving Margot and or Farmer.

[wabene]

Keeping the 60 day IL rules in mind, lol, if Topa completes his rehab assignment successfully a move will be necessary very soon. Winder's days may be numbered.

[stringer bell]

40 minutes ago, wabene said:

Keeping the 60 day IL rules in mind, lol, if Topa completes his rehab assignment successfully a move will be necessary very soon. Winder's days may be numbered.

Maybe, but Kirilloff has been on the IL for over a month already and he can stay on the IL while rehabbing, so my best guess is that Kirilloff will be moved to the 60-day list.

Pitchers get 30 days maximum on rehab, so Topa has quite a bit of time to rehab, if necessary. He started his rehab on the 23rd of July.

[wabene]

1 hour ago, stringer bell said:

Maybe, but Kirilloff has been on the IL for over a month already and he can stay on the IL while rehabbing, so my best guess is that Kirilloff will be moved to the 60-day list.

Pitchers get 30 days maximum on rehab, so Topa has quite a bit of time to rehab, if necessary. He started his rehab on the 23rd of July.

You're probably right and definitely on top of this stuff. Strange that Kirilloff would hide an injury bad enough to require this much time off. That MLB paycheck might have something to do with it. 

Since Topa avoided surgery, for now at least, they may want to get him up as soon as possible to get all he's got. Then again it's been a while since he's pitched in the bigs. They don't appear to think Stewart needs much of a rehab and try to use his bullets in meaningful games. We'll see with Topa.

[stringer bell]

On 7/28/2024 at 1:23 PM, wabene said:

You're probably right and definitely on top of this stuff. Strange that Kirilloff would hide an injury bad enough to require this much time off. That MLB paycheck might have something to do with it. 

Since Topa avoided surgery, for now at least, they may want to get him up as soon as possible to get all he's got. Then again it's been a while since he's pitched in the bigs. They don't appear to think Stewart needs much of a rehab and try to use his bullets in meaningful games. We'll see with Topa.

Topa has been pitching regularly for the Saints. Given the point in the season, Topa's experience and the nature of his injury, I would expect that he won't be using all 30 days of his rehab. OTOH, I don't think there is a slam dunk demotion right now and there isn't an easy 40-man move to make. Of course, the Twins could solve both issues by DFAing Dobnak.