Chris Paddack’s Injury Necessitates Action for Twins

[Linus]

17 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Snell throws a lot of balls and walks quite a few guys, but he owns a career 3.31 ERA and 3.46 FIP, is left handed, and can completely dominate even good teams. Snell entered the season without any spring training, signing with the Giants on March 20th. Snell was aggressive at being part of the rotation right away, and his overconfidence simulated games were equivalent to game action really showed. I wouldn't be interested in Snell if he were still pitching like Montgomery was. He's now looking like the potentially elite arm the Twins need, and the Twins should be aggressive at acquiring him.

The Giants have hinted it'd be valuable to them to get Snell off the books for future luxury tax reasons, and Snell's struggles out of the gate and lingering risk of the $30MM player option should keep his value lower. If the Twins can't make this type of deal, I'll be hoping it's Falvey's last year here.

He’s not gonna pass on the $30 million option next year right?  I highly doubt the Twins will have an appetite for that. 

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, Linus said:

He’s not gonna pass on the $30 million option next year right?  I highly doubt the Twins will have an appetite for that. 

I'd bet he does, but either way, if the Twins aren't willing to take on Snell for 1 year, just close up shop.

It's a rare and absolutely perfect opportunity to potentially grab EXACTLY what you need. With no long term dollars attached. A motivated seller.

 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, big dog said:

Who the heck is Nolan Gibson?

The mythical cheap ace with team control that is the apple of the Twins Daily eye.  Available for any combination of three prospects ranked 24-37 (team rank).

I thought about other names but while Bob Ryan had a nice career, his fastball is clearly gone.

[Linus]

28 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

I'd bet he does, but either way, if the Twins aren't willing to take on Snell for 1 year, just close up shop.

It's a rare and absolutely perfect opportunity to potentially grab EXACTLY what you need. With no long term dollars attached. A motivated seller.

 

Interesting. Do you say that because he will try to land a long term deal or he thinks he can get more than $30 million next year?  

[Jocko87]

10 minutes ago, Linus said:

Interesting. Do you say that because he will try to land a long term deal or he thinks he can get more than $30 million next year?  

Barring serious injury there is almost no chance he doesn't hit the market again.  He might even still be around 30m, just 7 years of it or so.  

Not a lot of risk for the Twins, I would assume his cost is quite a bit lower than if he was fully signed for next year.  I don't think you can give much more than rental prices for him because of the downside of 30m for watching him rehab.  No QO available either. 

It fits in a lot of ways but someone has to be comfortable with taking a 30m bath.  That doesn't fit at all.

[cheeseheadgophfan]

Paxton makes perfect sense. Maybe they catch lightning in a bottle, or at the worst he's a better bullpen option than Funderburk or Thielbar.

[Linus]

13 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

Barring serious injury there is almost no chance he doesn't hit the market again.  He might even still be around 30m, just 7 years of it or so.  

Not a lot of risk for the Twins, I would assume his cost is quite a bit lower than if he was fully signed for next year.  I don't think you can give much more than rental prices for him because of the downside of 30m for watching him rehab.  No QO available either. 

It fits in a lot of ways but someone has to be comfortable with taking a 30m bath.  That doesn't fit at all.

I’m not arguing because I haven’t followed him closely. Didn’t he take this contract because he couldn’t get a long term deal last year?  He has been hurt this year and a little up and down so I wouldn’t think things would change that much from a contract standpoint but I could easily be wrong as free agency can be funny. I’m still highly doubtful the Twins would take that chance. Which isn’t an endorsement on my part just my assessment of the payroll situation. 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

They would need to trade Royce Lewis to get that.

If you want a top starting pitcher, the cost is high. Are you in or out?

[TNTwinsFan]

Sign Trevor Bauer

[Johnbullit]

It really doesn't matter who they would add.. As long as Rocco is there using his analytics no pitcher will go longer than 90 pitches or 6 innings unless his name is Lopez. 

[USAFChief]

13 hours ago, Linus said:

Interesting. Do you say that because he will try to land a long term deal or he thinks he can get more than $30 million next year?  

I'm betting he pitches well to finish this season,  at which point he's a left handed 32 YO two time CYA winner. The most recent in 2023. 3.31 career ERA.

It was a fluke he didn't get more last winter. He'll get more this winter.

And if he doesn't? So much the better. He's a 32 YO two time CYA winner with a career 3.31 ERA. One yr $30M? Where do we sign?

 

[bean5302]

4 hours ago, Linus said:

He’s not gonna pass on the $30 million option next year right?  I highly doubt the Twins will have an appetite for that. 

Blake Snell got a $150MM offer he passed on last year. He's going to get an offer far above $30MM. $125MM is probably the floor. There's only 1 legitimate way Snell is picking up the $30MM option, and that's if he's going to miss the whole 2025 season.

[bean5302]

MLBTR is reporting the F.O. is suggesting there is essentially zero payroll flexibility for the Twins like many folks have commented on this site where I've poo-pooed such comments as being overly dramatic.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/twins-reportedly-working-with-payroll-limitations-at-trade-deadline.html

I've emailed my Twins season ticket rep and let them know ownership decisions may very well decide if I "right size" my attendance next year.

[KBJ1]

We already have 4 post season worthy starters! The problem we won't see the post season without a decent 5th starter.

Snell as a rental, with post season experience and last years Cy Young winner makes a lot of sense. Would probably only be $5M worth of salary.

Depends on the player Capitol cost.

SWR has arguably been our best pitcher this year. Pitched another absolute gem tonight!

We can't afford to trot out a minor league pitcher every 5th game. 

Any pitcher we sign is going to cost at least $5M. 

Without SWR we would be sellers at the deadline. They have zero options and no choice but to acquire someone. 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

MLBTR is reporting the F.O. is suggesting there is essentially zero payroll flexibility for the Twins like many folks have commented on this site where I've poo-pooed such comments as being overly dramatic.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/twins-reportedly-working-with-payroll-limitations-at-trade-deadline.html

I've emailed my Twins season ticket rep and let them know ownership decisions may very well decide if I "right size" my attendance next year.

Hopefully your ticket reps will trade you some media literacy classes.  Nothing you claimed in your summation is true.  Neither MLBTR or Jeff Passen who's report they site does anything but speculate.  Please don't use it to confirm your priors. 

No reporting, no front office comment since November(!) and no reason to trust anything they are writing.  It's message board level random speculation.  This is how narratives are set.  It's circular reporting and it's lazy garbage.

Actual recent front office comments indicate they are looking for pitching, both Falvey and assistant GM Carlos Correa made on the record statements saying just that.  

They could be just talking crap, obviously, but has some intrepid reporter asked them point blank about money and the deadline?

[Althebum82]

The time has come for this franchise to at least attempt to collect on this investment:  Randy Dobnak, Twins agree to contract extension (mlb.com)

He appears to be healthy and, at least at the AAA level, competitive after a horrible 2023 season.

Also, weird as it may seem, he actually does have mlb playoff experience.

I am not saying that he is necessarily a good solution to the Paddack dilemma.   But, other than causing another 40 man roster move, for the past four months he has proven that there is little risk in giving him another shot at the big time.

[TwinsDr2021]

13 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Snell throws a lot of balls and walks quite a few guys, but he owns a career 3.31 ERA and 3.46 FIP, is left handed, and can completely dominate even good teams. Snell entered the season without any spring training, signing with the Giants on March 20th. Snell was aggressive at being part of the rotation right away, and his overconfidence simulated games were equivalent to game action really showed. I wouldn't be interested in Snell if he were still pitching like Montgomery was. He's now looking like the potentially elite arm the Twins need, and the Twins should be aggressive at acquiring him.

The Giants have hinted it'd be valuable to them to get Snell off the books for future luxury tax reasons, and Snell's struggles out of the gate and lingering risk of the $30MM player option should keep his value lower. If the Twins can't make this type of deal, I'll be hoping it's Falvey's last year here.

I wasn't saying don't do it, I was just voicing my concern on him.

[Squirrel]

9 hours ago, Johnbullit said:

It really doesn't matter who they would add.. As long as Rocco is there using his analytics no pitcher will go longer than 90 pitches or 6 innings unless his name is Lopez. 

Or Ober and Ryan.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

12 hours ago, TNTwinsFan said:

Sign Trevor Bauer

He was the 3rd best starter on his team last year and is pitching in a league where Robinson Cano (.373 OPS in his last MLB stint) is far and away the best hitter in the league.

Even from a purely baseball perspective it would be a bad idea. 

[USAFChief]

9 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Actual recent front office comments indicate they are looking for pitching, both Falvey and assistant GM Carlos Correa made on the record statements saying just that.  

Are there any Falvey or Asst GM quotes that actually address payroll? 

Yeah, didn't think so.

Proof will be in the pudding.

Go get Blake Snell and I'll  believe money isnt the primary driver of decisions.

[Doctor Gast]

14 hours ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

Paxton makes perfect sense. Maybe they catch lightning in a bottle, or at the worst he's a better bullpen option than Funderburk or Thielbar.

I'm beginning to think so too. LAD has kept him on a rigid limited innings but as of late, he hasn't been very good. But for the league minimum, you can't go wrong, A total change of scenery could likely do him good. We can't depend on him for a lot of innings but some rotation of Paxton, Paddack & Varland could be very doable. Being so cheap we could also try to trade for a top-tier postseason SP if the price is right & the Twins are serious to advance in the postseason. If he doesn't work out in the rotation or BP we aren't out much.

[tony&rodney]

It seems improbable that Blake Snell would not return to the market this winter. Even a contract for 3 years at $15-20 million per year beats the $30 million one year option where Snell risks a career ending injury. He has had his ups and downs and is not a clear guarantee but Snell has that potential teams drool over. It is a fair gamble to deal for him.

What return would San Francisco want?

Does SF even consider trading Snell considering that they will get back two good pitchers from the IL soon and still have a shot at a Wild Card?

[LambchoP]

Twins won't risk getting Snell and being on the hook for 30 million next year. I could see them maybe getting Paxton now that he's been released by the Dodgers. Maybe they grab a reliever or two. I'd be happy with their deadline if they can get Kikuchi, or better yet Eovaldi or Fedde. Then a solid lefty reliever. This would give us a legit chance at a playoff series win imo. One solid starter, one solid lefty reliever.

[DJL44]

10 hours ago, Althebum82 said:

The time has come for this franchise to at least attempt to collect on this investment:  Randy Dobnak, Twins agree to contract extension (mlb.com)

He appears to be healthy and, at least at the AAA level, competitive after a horrible 2023 season.

Also, weird as it may seem, he actually does have mlb playoff experience.

I am not saying that he is necessarily a good solution to the Paddack dilemma.   But, other than causing another 40 man roster move, for the past four months he has proven that there is little risk in giving him another shot at the big time.

They have nothing to lose by pitching Randy Dobnak except baseball games.

[bean5302]

11 hours ago, KBJ1 said:

We already have 4 post season worthy starters! The problem we won't see the post season without a decent 5th starter.

Snell as a rental, with post season experience and last years Cy Young winner makes a lot of sense. Would probably only be $5M worth of salary.

Depends on the player Capitol cost.

SWR has arguably been our best pitcher this year. Pitched another absolute gem tonight!

We can't afford to trot out a minor league pitcher every 5th game. 

Any pitcher we sign is going to cost at least $5M. 

Without SWR we would be sellers at the deadline. They have zero options and no choice but to acquire someone. 

Lopez owns a 4.86 ERA right now. 9 Quality Starts in 20 games.
Ryan has been terrible in the 2nd half of each year of his career. His last 5 games he owns a 5.34 ERA. 11 Quality Starts in 20 games.
Simeon Woods Richardson. The xFIP and SIERA scare me a little. 6 QS in 17 games, though Rocco "quick hook" Baldelli has something to do with that. Woods Richardson is the kind of pitcher who could slot into a playoff rotation.
Bailey Ober is not one of the guys you want in the top of the playoff order 1-3 guys, but he's not the worst #4 option.

What the Twins are missing is the guy who is supposed to slot in at #1. Having 2 #4's and 2 #3s isn't how we get to 4 playoff rotation arms.

[bean5302]

2 hours ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

He was the 3rd best starter on his team last year and is pitching in a league where Robinson Cano (.373 OPS in his last MLB stint) is far and away the best hitter in the league.

Even from a purely baseball perspective it would be a bad idea. 

You should stick to virtue signaling and/or personal or political ideology arguments on Bauer. He was slightly better than Imanaga (2.76 vs. 2.80 ERA) despite Bauer shaking off 2 years of rust for the first couple games in that league. After that rough start, Bauer was lights out better than Imanaga, who has been dominant for the Cubs this year owning a near identical ERA in MLB as he owned with the Bay Stars.

I'd be shocked if Bauer was signed by the Twins. It'd be a great move, though, if the ownership really is screwing the fans and the front office with a hard payroll cap. When you need to find ways to win and ownership is telling you to do it without normal resources, you get creative. Just like Moneyball with the A's bringing in Jeremy Giambi as a sort of talented problem child, accurate or not to reality. I feel like maybe the Twins would want to write in a few stipulations (note for Dave St. Peter and the Pohlad family, writing in some limitations like your ability to pull agreements say, if half the service provided winds up being unfulfilled like with Bally Sports North).

If ownership has a problem with it, you throw them under the bus publicly. If everybody is suggesting Falvey should leave and all the other teams want him, it's the right move if done the right way.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, USAFChief said:

Are there any Falvey or Asst GM quotes that actually address payroll? 

Yeah, didn't think so.

Proof will be in the pudding.

Go get Blake Snell and I'll  believe money isnt the primary driver of decisions.

That's my point. Just ask them if you're a reporter.  Proof in the pudding means nothing if we are comparing it to our fantasy world. 

Ask them, then compare it to what they did. It's simple actually.

I did go looking through recent Falvey interviews to check, it seems he's been awfully quiet this year.  Don't miss your chances.

[bean5302]

15 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

That's my point. Just ask them if you're a reporter.  Proof in the pudding means nothing if we are comparing it to our fantasy world. 

Ask them, then compare it to what they did. It's simple actually.

I did go looking through recent Falvey interviews to check, it seems he's been awfully quiet this year.  Don't miss your chances.

Reporter: Are you being told by ownership you cannot add any amount to the payroll at the deadline?

Falvey: We're looking at a lot of different options, and if we find the right fit, we'll be open to making a move. I haven't been given a specific number by ownership, but I think we're happy with our roster and our payroll situation if we're not able to find the right fit.

That's what a direct question/answer would look like. Dodge.

[mrcharlie]

Tyler Anderson 

Tanner Scott 

Both fill the most pressing of needs.  The question is how high a prospect in return.  Another consideration is signing them to a multi year deal.  A deal for one of these two has to be a higher priority.

[Linus]

33 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Reporter: Are you being told by ownership you cannot add any amount to the payroll at the deadline?

Falvey: We're looking at a lot of different options, and if we find the right fit, we'll be open to making a move. I haven't been given a specific number by ownership, but I think we're happy with our roster and our payroll situation if we're not able to find the right fit.

That's what a direct question/answer would look like. Dodge.

Correct. We will know after it happens. At that point we judge them by their actions and not their words.