Twins Pursuing Rental Starting Pitching At Trade Deadline

[Brock Beauchamp]

Per Dan Hayes (The Athletic) in his latest Twins roundup, the Twins are looking for starting pitching, targeting starters on expiring contracts.

This shouldn't come as a surprise, as starting pitching is the team's biggest weakness heading into the trade deadline and the team has been payroll-constrained since their Bally Sports television deal expired after the 2023 season. It's unlikely the Twins are in a position to commit additional dollars to a starter beyond this season and even their ability to add significant payroll for the rest of this season is in question.

There are two starters on expiring contracts that should be traded before the trade deadline: the Detroit Tigers' Jack Flaherty and the Toronto Blue Jays' Yusei Kikuchi. Both are on relatively inexpensive contracts and should be within the budget constraints of the Twins.

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[LambchoP]

Both these guys should help with the playoffs push. Prefer Flaherty over Kikuchi, but both could take the rotation spot of Paddack down the stretch so we could stick him in the bullpen like last year. Of course that plan depends on the rotation staying healthy the rest of the way. Twins are one or two injuries away from starting Festa Dobnak or Boushley...

[RpR]

Is there still such a thing as a truly long relief pitcher?

One who can/will pitch for 3-5 innings; 5 if the starter craps-out real early.

[Cory Engelhardt]

Just throwing it out, I would LOVE the idea of Kikuchi, but I think I'd love the idea of Eovaldi if Texas sells even more. It is exciting knowing they will add, or at least I believe they will. 

[dxpavelka]

go for broke:  BOTH

[JD-TWINS]

To me, Tanner Scott for the Pen would be a primary target. Middle to late inning lefty with really solid success in ‘24. Also a rental  ……possibility to re-sign going forward as well.

I know it may be antiquated thinking but trading within the Division seems difficult to get comfortable with……..Flaherty seems Team’s best option.

Kikuchi could be the fallback for both of the previous thoughts? Don’t have as much trust in him down the stretch.

Due to competition for the available arms, Team may have to get by with current 5 with spot starts from Festa - Varland - Matthews? Maybe not ideal but a realistic approach.

Bringing Stewart back & potentially adding Scott would make the Pen top flight for last two months!

[Vanimal46]

19 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I think I'd love the idea of Eovaldi if Texas sells even more.

Me too. We need a bulldog starter in the playoffs. I’m not so sure Kikuchi starts in the wild card series over Ryan, Ober, and Lopez. Eovaldi definitely does. Or at the very least is the fireman in the bullpen. 

[cmoss84]

How about max scherzer? Velo down a bit. But is he the guy we need to make playoffs/win a playoff series. Does his experience and intensity make everyone better?

My buddy is the bullpen catcher of the Nats...he said you DID NOT want to be around Max if he was told he was not pitching on his scheduled day.

This might be the only time we can acquire a guy like this. Is his winning mentality worth the $?

[Cory Engelhardt]

1 hour ago, cmoss84 said:

How about max scherzer? Velo down a bit. But is he the guy we need to make playoffs/win a playoff series. Does his experience and intensity make everyone better?

My buddy is the bullpen catcher of the Nats...he said you DID NOT want to be around Max if he was told he was not pitching on his scheduled day.

This might be the only time we can acquire a guy like this. Is his winning mentality worth the $?

Gotta say, his next few starts will be interesting to follow. If he gets his typical velocity back he will be a huge potential trade target for everyone 

[FargoFanMan]

After last nights meltdown in extra innings add a shut down reliever as well. After Jax and Duran and hopefully Brock Stuart it’s hit or miss whether any of those other guys can actually be trusted in a high leverage situation. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

The Dodgers just DFA'd James Paxton. 35 year old left hander, 8-2 4,43 ERA, 1.46 WHIP so far this year in 89 innings.  7-5 with a 4.60 ERA, 1.31 WHIP with Boston last year in 96 innings. Hurt in 2020-2022. Not too exciting, but maybe worth signing if he clears waivers. Seems likely since he's hit his incentives to make $13m this year. Think it might be a good depth signing at the pro-rated minimum, 

Agreed on the need for a reliver, by the way. The bullpen is really only 4 deep, 5 if Stewart comes back. Hard to  trust Okert, Theilbar, Funderburk, or Henriquez, and Sands is iffy. Bring on Carlos Estevez!

[USAFChief]

20 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

The Dodgers just DFA'd James Paxton. 35 year old left hander, 8-2 4,43 ERA, 1.46 WHIP so far this year in 89 innings.  7-5 with a 4.60 ERA, 1.31 WHIP with Boston last year in 96 innings. Hurt in 2020-2022. Not too exciting, but maybe worth signing if he clears waivers. Seems likely since he's hit his incentives to make $13m this year. Think it might be a good depth signing at the pro-rated minimum, 

Agreed on the need for a reliver, by the way. The bullpen is really only 4 deep, 5 if Stewart comes back. Hard to  trust Okert, Theilbar, Funderburk, or Henriquez, and Sands is iffy. Bring on Carlos Estevez!

There's no mention of any incentives at spotrac.

$4M 2024 salary with a $3M signing bonus.

Somebody will claim him, I doubt he gets released. Money is minimal. 

[LA Vikes Fan]

Here's what MLB Trade rumors says about his contract:

Paxton, 35, signed with the Dodgers on a complicated one-year deal that pays him a $3MM signing bonus, a $4MM salary, a $2MM roster bonus for making the Opening Day squad and a series of $600K and $1MM bonuses that unlock periodically based on his number of games started. Paxton has made 18 starts this season, which was the last milestone he needed to max out his contract. He’ll receive the full $13MM possible on the deal but also seems likely to finish out the season with another club, one way or another.

It looks like they may not have all of his bonuses listed on Sportrac. I suspect that if he really is due a prorated amount of $13 million if claimed, he may pass through without being claimed.

Here's is another thought. We have an open spot on Wednesday with Paddack going back on the IL. The Dodgers are bringing back Kershaw and Glasnow, which explains the DFA of Paxton. I wonder if they would be willing to trade him and cover his remaining salary, or at least a portion of it, for a prospect outside of the top 30? I'm not really sure I would make a deal for anything more than that but it might be worth exploring.

 

[cmoss84]

Yeah...too many teams on both sides still in the playoff hunt. Paxton will be picked up relatively quickly. 

We need to focus on the bad teams. Even white sox.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

It looks like they may not have all of his bonuses listed on Sportrac. I suspect that if he really is due a prorated amount of $13 million if claimed, he may pass through without being claimed.

 

Concur, if true. I doubt anyone's taking on $4M.

On the other hand, spotrac is generally pretty accurate. 

In any case, he pitched Sunday night so he's not an option for Wednesday. 

 

Edit: Rereading the MLBTR article, I don't think he's owed $13M in salary for 2024. Both the $3M signing and $2M roster bonuses have already been paid and aren't "salary." That leaves $7M in salary...the original $4M and another $3M in performancebonuses. About $2.5M remaining.

 

[cmoss84]

Let's go get Luzardo, Irvin, or the crotch.

 

[Twinsgypsy]

The Dodgers are going to DFA James Paxton.  I think this would be a great flyer to take because he is a free agent after the season. He is 8-2 , but has a little high ERA.  However, he has been effective in the starts that he has made.

[cmoss84]

1 minute ago, Twinsgypsy said:

The Dodgers are going to DFA James Paxton.  I think this would be a great flyer to take because he is a free agent after the season. He is 8-2 , but has a little high ERA.  However, he has been effective in the starts that he has made.

^

[LA Vikes Fan]

48 minutes ago, USAFChief said:

Concur, if true. I doubt anyone's taking on $4M.

On the other hand, spotrac is generally pretty accurate. 

In any case, he pitched Sunday night so he's not an option for Wednesday. 

 

Edit: Rereading the MLBTR article, I don't think he's owed $13M in salary for 2024. Both the $3M signing and $2M roster bonuses have already been paid and aren't "salary." That leaves $7M in salary...the original $4M and another $3M in performancebonuses. About $2.5M remaining.

 

That makes sense. At 2.5m, probably not worth taking on for me. 

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

That makes sense. At 2.5m, probably not worth taking on for me. 

Reading further into it, I believe the performance bonuses have also been paid. Something like ~$1.5M at this point 

[akmanak]

Yah, the Twin's owners are pretty much broke even though they got 40 million for a TV deal that never happened, a new stadium which they didn't pay for and a team that has steadily have made them millions each year. 

So, I believe they are in a position to make a move.

 

 

[LA Vikes Fan]

14 hours ago, USAFChief said:

Reading further into it, I believe the performance bonuses have also been paid. Something like ~$1.5M at this point 

You're right. According to MLB trade rumors all of the bonuses have been paid out. The acquiring team would only be on the hook for the pro rated portion of his $4m base salary. Sounds like right about $1.5m. Worth a look depending on the prospect price IMHO. 

[Twodogs]

On 7/23/2024 at 10:03 AM, LA VIkes Fan said:

You're right. According to MLB trade rumors all of the bonuses have been paid out. The acquiring team would only be on the hook for the pro rated portion of his $4m base salary. Sounds like right about $1.5m. Worth a look depending on the prospect price IMHO. 

I thought that when a guy got DFA'd that the new team only had to pay league minimum? I mean the Dodgers are on the hook if no one picks him up? So why wouldn't they still be on the hook?  I mean unless the two teams worked a trade, then that would be different I'd think. No?

[stringer bell]

1 hour ago, Twodogs said:

I thought that when a guy got DFA'd that the new team only had to pay league minimum? I mean the Dodgers are on the hook if no one picks him up? So why wouldn't they still be on the hook?  I mean unless the two teams worked a trade, then that would be different I'd think. No?

When a player is DFA'd, teams can claim the player, which I would hope the Twins have done. If multiple teams claim the player, the team he is on can work out a trade. I don't think there is any order in the claims. If no trade is worked out, the claiming team with the worst record gets the player and assumes his contract. If no one claims the player, he can declare free agency (if eligible) or accept outright assignment. If the player gets to free agency, the former team is on the hook for the contract except for the major league minimum. I could be wrong about a detail or two--service time figures into the ability to become a free agent and how much of their salary is paid by the former team as does the number of times a player has been outrighted. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

JUST putting this out into the ether. With how he's looked since coming off the injured list, he would be an AWESOME get.

Am I being naive? Yes. Will it happen, no it (probably) won't. Just sharing because it would certainly be exciting.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/blake-snell-among-giants-drawing-trade-interest.html

[USAFChief]

16 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

JUST putting this out into the ether. With how he's looked since coming off the injured list, he would be an AWESOME get.

Am I being naive? Yes. Will it happen, no it (probably) won't. Just sharing because it would certainly be exciting.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/blake-snell-among-giants-drawing-trade-interest.html

 

[mnfireman]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/dodgers-trade-james-paxton-red-sox.html

[Craig Arko]

36 minutes ago, mnfireman said:

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/07/dodgers-trade-james-paxton-red-sox.html

With Paxton gone sure does seem like Kikuchi will be the one the Twins pursue most heavily.

[bean5302]

Yes. Blake Snell is the guy. His $15MM salary this year is the only thing it's going to cost the Twins. While there is the $30MM opt in, it's just a formality, the same as the 2yrs/$70MM for Carlos Correa in 2022. Snell will 100% opt out unless he's catastrophically bad or he's going to lose the entire 2024 campaign to injury. The risk is partially what will make Snell affordable.

Additionally, if Snell were to "opt in" it's not a big deal. His 2025 salary 50% deferred meaning the acquiring club is only on the hook for $15MM in 2025, deferring $15MM 2 additional years to 2027. That gives any acquiring team plenty of time to adjust their roster if they have payroll capacity issues like the Twins.

Blake Snell received a 6yr $150MM offer from the Yankees last offseason. He'll receive at least a 5yr $100MM offer this year if he pitches well. He'll be 32 next year which will be at the limits of his long term contract potential, and he's got $17MM of signing bonus coming to him for 2025 regardless of the contract he takes so he can afford to use that as a hedge fund to prop himself up if he doesn't get the perfect contract he wants.

Snell's opt out is just as minimally risky as it can be.

[USAFChief]

5 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Yes. Blake Snell is the guy. His $15MM salary this year is the only thing it's going to cost the Twins. While there is the $30MM opt in, it's just a formality, the same as the 2yrs/$70MM for Carlos Correa in 2022. Snell will 100% opt out unless he's catastrophically bad or he's going to lose the entire 2024 campaign to injury. The risk is partially what will make Snell affordable.

Additionally, if Snell were to "opt in" it's not a big deal. His 2025 salary 50% deferred meaning the acquiring club is only on the hook for $15MM in 2025, deferring $15MM 2 additional years to 2027. That gives any acquiring team plenty of time to adjust their roster if they have payroll capacity issues like the Twins.

Blake Snell received a 6yr $150MM offer from the Yankees last offseason. He'll receive at least a 5yr $100MM offer this year if he pitches well. He'll be 32 next year which will be at the limits of his long term contract potential, and he's got $17MM of signing bonus coming to him for 2025 regardless of the contract he takes so he can afford to use that as a hedge fund to prop himself up if he doesn't get the perfect contract he wants.

Snell's opt out is just as minimally risky as it can be.

Not to mention, the Twins payroll constraints are entirely self imposed. A 1 year deal for $30m is well within what they should be spending anyway. And getting a potential top starter on a one year deal is damn near perfect but damn near impossible.