Make It Official! Twins 8, White Sox 6: Bats Back Sheriff in Return to Rotation

[DJL44]

38 minutes ago, jimbo92107 said:

The team's got enough AAA starters on the edge of making it, so use them to spell Paddack, and others. 

They really don't. Varland and Festa were both bad.

[Riverbrian]

2 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Then there's Austin Martin who plays 2B and LF but doesn't have terrible platoon issues.

This reveals another potential problem that I don't like one bit. 

With the strategy to platoon and protect your young left handed hitters heavily currently in place. If you shed Farmer and Margot from the roster. Someone has to fill those spots to keep protecting the left handed hitter and Martin would probably become that guy. 

I know there are many that don't think Martin will amount to anything. I don't know if he will or he won't but if you bring him to the major leagues as young hitter and short side him... You will guarantee that he won't amount to anything. 

 

[David Maro]

I want to know who spoke to Buxton about contact hitting being better than swinging for the fences every at bat.He has become more dangerous on the bases and looks like he is having more fun.

The other thing is Lee looks like the team's 3rd baseman,so Lewis if ever healthy may need to move to DH and some LF.If you watch Lee he looks at home at 3rd and makes really good throws to first,something Lewis has trouble with.

[DJL44]

7 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

I know there are many that don't think Martin will amount to anything. I don't know if he will or he won't but if you bring him to the major leagues as young hitter and short side him... You will guarantee that he won't amount to anything. 

You've been noticing that it's really hard to make the RH guy a short-side guy all the time. Martin is still going to get plenty of at-bats against RHP even if he's always in the lineup against LHP.

[JD-TWINS]

Just now, Riverbrian said:

JD... You are a smart guy. You have my respect. 

Don't take this the wrong way... but I won't go into a zero sum discussion on this. 

You know we are talking about percentages of advantage on both sides of the plate. Please don't "No Chance" this discussion. 

Even if I believed that Wallner would have a lower percentage against left handed pitchers than Margot does against right handed pitchers. How much lower are we talking about?

Is it low enough to make up for 75% to 25%?

Are you not giving whatever advantage you gain right back when Margot faces more right handed pitching than left handed pitching?   

Why do Margot and Farmer face more right handed pitching then left handed pitching? 

 

 

“No chance” is just a generality and not meant to be realistic - no more than Margot having no chance v. RH pitching. Chances are greatly diminished - how’s that?

Wallner has the better upside than Margot if they can only carry one guy, absolutely no doubt!!!……,my point is they don’t need to carry one guy.

I can’t defend (though I really like him as a guy) Farmer. He’s had some tough luck, but doesn’t everyone, on well hit balls. No HR’s is a telling stat!!!!

MANY people look at Margot’s “year” and use the totality to justify making a move now or “soon”. He, just like Wallner in St. Paul, has improved from mid-May forward……a bunch. The disparity on Margot’s AB’s, RH pitching v. LH pitching, is multi faceted…………goes back to him coming in to Pinch hit & nearly inevitably the pitcher then gets changed……mostly it’s been necessity due to ill health from teammates and him picking up the innings. Larnach’s toe - Kepler’s shin - Wallner’s ineptitude - Kirilloff’s inability to be effective - Buxton’s knee - Julien going down and taking Castro away from OF……these issues added together forced Margot into the line-up quite often……last, if he enters the game in the middle, due to the 75% RH pitchers, he’s going to face RH pitching without that being the intent from the Manager later in the game.

I guess a last thought is, one of the reasons (major reason) Wallner has less playing time in the Showin ‘24 and Margot got many of his potential AB’s in April/May/June is because Wallner was brutal & then somewhat inconsistent, with too many K’s, on his AAA assignment. It’s on him ultimately. He’s back!!!

 

[DJL44]

Margot and Farmer and Kepler will all be gone next year at the latest which will be awesome since there will be nothing for anyone to complain about on Twins Daily.

[stringer bell]

There are several opinions out in Twins Daily-land. I think most have some merit, but I'm not buying all of it.

1) Farmer should be traded or if they can't trade him, he should be DFA'd. Farmer's role and productivity have shrunk. He is a trusted backup at second and third base and can play shortstop. He is reputed to be a lefty killer, but he hasn't hit much at all against lefties or righties. I doubt there is any real market for a $6M infielder who may have slipped past being productive. However, the Twins will likely hold onto him because of the money and the fact that injuries come in bunches and he could suddenly be a valuable player again (in the FO's eyes). 

2) Margot shouldn't be on the major league roster and could/should be replaced by Keirsey, Martin or Willi Castro. Again, like Farmer, here is a veteran player that seems to have slipped. He hasn't played well in the outfield and has seldom been used in center field. He's hit okay as a platoon option, but he is hitless in over 20 appearances as a pinch hitter and has more plate appearances against right handed pitching that left handed pitching. IMHO, this is where the manager has gone too far. The early pinch hits and subsequent at-bats for Margot (and Farmer) against right handed relievers can be avoided by leaving the lefty hitters in the game for the middle innings. Originally, the right handed side of each platoon looked to be a better defender and a more veteran presence (Margot/Wallner, Santana/Kirilloff, Farmer/Julien). With Margot's shakiness on defense plus the emergence of platoon-proof hitters Castro and Miranda, that formula has changed. Let Margot start against lefties, don't let him pinch hit in the middle innings and I think the results will be better. 

3) Platoons hurt the development of young left handed hitters. It sure seems that way. Kirilloff struggled and was originally optioned, Wallner and Julien were optioned. My college stats professor reminded us often that correlation does not prove causality. It seems very apparent to me that (in general) Rocco minds much less a right handed hitter facing a right handed reliever as compared to left handed hitters facing left handed relievers. I have come around to accepting the all right handed lineups versus southpaws. I am not on board for pulling the left handed hitters as soon as a lefty steps across the line out of the bullpen.

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Margot and Farmer and Kepler will all be gone next year at the latest which will be awesome since there will be nothing for anyone to complain about on Twins Daily.

There's Vázquez!

[Patzky]

17 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Margot and Farmer and Kepler will all be gone next year at the latest which will be awesome since there will be nothing for anyone to complain about on Twins Daily.

Promise?

[Patzky]

Good news front: Brock Stewart begins a rehab stint with the Saints today. Zach Weiss also.

[Riverbrian]

7 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

“No chance” is just a generality and not meant to be realistic - no more than Margot having no chance v. RH pitching. Chances are greatly diminished - how’s that?

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Wallner has the better upside than Margot if they can only carry one guy, absolutely no doubt!!!……,my point is they don’t need to carry one guy.

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The disparity on Margot’s AB’s, RH pitching v. LH pitching, is multi faceted…………goes back to him coming in to Pinch hit & nearly inevitably the pitcher then gets changed……mostly it’s been necessity due to ill health from teammates and him picking up the innings. Larnach’s toe - Kepler’s shin - Wallner’s ineptitude - Kirilloff’s inability to be effective - Buxton’s knee - Julien going down and taking Castro away from OF……these issues added together forced Margot into the line-up quite often……last, if he enters the game in the middle, due to the 75% RH pitchers, he’s going to face RH pitching without that being the intent from the Manager later in the game.

 

I use the word struggles. 😉

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My point is that they should try carry one guy so you have room for another guy. Don't roster lesser players for one specific skill. Why? You answered why when you explained the disparity. 

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These things, Larnach's toe, Kepler's shin, Wallner's ineptititude, Kirilloffs inability to be effective, Buxton's knee - Julien going down and taking Castro away from the outfield and I'll add Lewis and his injuries. 

The names may change from year to year but these things happen every single year. They can't be predicted individually but you can etch them in stone that they will happen and because they do you need more than 9 guys.

Margot has always been fated to face more right handers than left handers because of these things. That's why commiting two players to one spot matters... that's why committing 6 players to 3 spots matters. Because that second player (Margot) that short sider who is rostered just so you got someone to face that 25% is going to face that 75% more often out of necessity which you have just accurately pointed out.    

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[Riverbrian]

24 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

You've been noticing that it's really hard to make the RH guy a short-side guy all the time. Martin is still going to get plenty of at-bats against RHP even if he's always in the lineup against LHP.

Martin hasn't been in the lineup against LHP. He's been the odd man out because we are short on left handed hitters and over loaded in the right batters box. 

That equation would change if Wallner becomes a third left handed hitter on the roster and if Margot and Farmer were released.  

[DJL44]

6 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Martin hasn't been in the lineup against LHP. He's been the odd man out because we are short on left handed hitters and over loaded in the right batters box. 

That equation would change if Wallner becomes a third left handed hitter on the roster and if Margot and Farmer were released.  

Correct, Martin was actually the "LH batting" half of the platoon before he got injured.

They really don't need four LH hitting corner outfielders (Larnach, Kepler, Wallner, Kirilloff) on the roster, especially when Martin and Castro hit RHP just fine.

[Shaitan]

14 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I'm concerned with Brooks Lee. He only went 2 for 5 tonight, and his BA is dropping like a rock. 

The other 3B on the roster is definitely out hitting him.

[Riverbrian]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Correct, Martin was actually the "LH batting" half of the platoon before he got injured.

They really don't need four LH hitting corner outfielders (Larnach, Kepler, Wallner, Kirilloff) on the roster, especially when Martin and Castro hit RHP just fine.

Cleveland currently has 5 left handed hitters and 3 switch hitters on their 26 man roster. 

I'd be OK with that in Minnesota. 😉

[Shaitan]

6 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I recognize the ridiculousness of the question that I'm about to ask. .

Ridiculous because it's only been two games of Wallner. 

Here's the question:

What would you choose

80 AB's of Wallner in June.

or

56 AB's from Margot in June. 

Three balls hit over 116 mph in two games since called up has answered that question for me. 

Yes I know. It's ridiculous to conclude anything after two games. 

 

 

 

I hope Wallner has turned the corner, but I see a pattern in recent years.

Kirillof, Larnach and Wallner all look good when they get called up. Then the league figures them out and the cycle continues. 

In short, I hope he's a near everyday player but I won't believe it for a few hundred AB.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, jimbo92107 said:

On a slightly different topic...

Whatever happened to Schrodinger's cat? It's been a hundred years...anybody open the box? 

Nature figures out a way. The species adapted to it's environment. The species evolved and was able to adapt to a life with no food, water or litter box and more astonishingly... the cat was able to reproduce. 

The Box was opened in January of this year.  It created a super cat. Here's a video of what happened. 

If you think the cats that we know today could care less about you. This new super cat really really doesn't give a damn. 

[JD-TWINS]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Margot and Farmer and Kepler will all be gone next year at the latest which will be awesome since there will be nothing for anyone to complain about on Twins Daily.

Vazquez will be though - put your ricks in the pillow case.😉

[JD-TWINS]

Just now, JD-TWINS said:

Vazquez will be though - put your ricks in the pillow case.😉

……ROCKS….

[JD-TWINS]

2 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Are we sure Matt Wallner is subpar v LH pitching? He wasn't in the minors last year (.848 OPS vs Lefties). Or in 2022 (.911 OPS vs Lefties). He's only been given 65 PAs in the majors against lefties. He hasn't been good against them, but 65 PAs is not exactly a lot of PAs. There's a chance the difference between Wallner and Margot against lefties isn't all that significant. We won't likely find out anytime soon, though.

He hit .080 over 3 weeks against nearly all RH pitchers to start the year……..pretty sure Popkins/Baldelli and anyone else with a pulse knows his numbers in the minors v. LH pitching - right? Still, he gets platooned for in the Show. Is Rocco trying to throw games with his vegas connections? Seriously.

AA & AAA are great but many guys excel in the minors and don’t play much in MLB. There are tangible reasons in Management’s opinion that he shouldn’t be hitting against LH pitching, at this point in his career…..doubt they want to fill in America on what those weaknesses may be as it is a competitive world.

There’s a chance there isn’t all that much difference between Wallner & Margot v. LH pitching but the guys that are getting paid to discern the differences between players don’t like Wallner’s odds in the short teerm.

[USAFChief]

39 minutes ago, Shaitan said:

The other 3B on the roster is definitely out hitting him.

Farmer??

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

He hit .080 over 3 weeks against nearly all RH pitchers to start the year……..pretty sure Popkins/Baldelli and anyone else with a pulse knows his numbers in the minors v. LH pitching - right? Still, he gets platooned for in the Show. Is Rocco trying to throw games with his vegas connections? Seriously.

AA & AAA are great but many guys excel in the minors and don’t play much in MLB. There are tangible reasons in Management’s opinion that he shouldn’t be hitting against LH pitching, at this point in his career…..doubt they want to fill in America on what those weaknesses may be as it is a competitive world.

There’s a chance there isn’t all that much difference between Wallner & Margot v. LH pitching but the guys that are getting paid to discern the differences between players don’t like Wallner’s odds in the short teerm.

The tangible reason is he's left handed. The Twins openly talk about this. It's not Wallner specific, it's all lefties. There were multiple interviews early in the year with Rocco talking about how Julien kept begging to hit against lefties and Rocco kept saying it just isn't what the Twins do, but he'll get some chances here and there. The Twins had their reasons not to let him, but he had a better OPS against lefties than righties in his time in the majors this year. 

The Twins aren't shy about this. They believe in platooning all lefties if they can. It's their base strategy. Some of us disagree with that. It's not Wallner specific why he doesn't hit against lefties. It's a core strategy of the FO and Rocco.

[DJL44]

14 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

put your ricks in the pillow case.😉

[cheeseheadgophfan]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Are we sure Matt Wallner is subpar v LH pitching? He wasn't in the minors last year (.848 OPS vs Lefties). Or in 2022 (.911 OPS vs Lefties). He's only been given 65 PAs in the majors against lefties. He hasn't been good against them, but 65 PAs is not exactly a lot of PAs. There's a chance the difference between Wallner and Margot against lefties isn't all that significant. We won't likely find out anytime soon, though.

I realize it's AAA, but I seem to recall a lot of Wallner highlight HR's from his stint in St. Paul were off of left handed pitching.....

[DJL44]

29 minutes ago, cheeseheadgophfan said:

I realize it's AAA, but I seem to recall a lot of Wallner highlight HR's from his stint in St. Paul were off of left handed pitching.....

Matt Wallner hit .173/.253/.387 off of lefthanded pitching in AAA with 4HR in 83 plate appearances. They probably avoided showing his 34 strikeouts against lefthanded pitchers (41% K) in the highlights.

[Road trip]

1 hour ago, Shaitan said:

I hope Wallner has turned the corner, but I see a pattern in recent years.

Kirillof, Larnach and Wallner all look good when they get called up. Then the league figures them out and the cycle continues. 

In short, I hope he's a near everyday player but I won't believe it for a few hundred AB.

So, as a regular Wallner advocate, I actually agree with this.  We don't know.  Perhaps he can make adjustments, perhaps not.  We can't know until he gets those few hundred MLB at bats.  Right now he has 300.  Let's give him a run of another 200-300 to see what we have?  Thus far, its a career OPS+ of 131.  Pretty good.  Like, only Royce Lewis has a better career number on this squad (unless you want to count Brooks Lee).

Wallner (and also Martin) is a completely different case than say.... Margot, because we have enough data to know exactly what Margot is.  2791 career MLB at bats and an OPS+ of 91.  His hot June is just a tiny data point in his career at this juncture.  Margot didn't suddenly figure out MLB pitching in June, any more than he completely forgot how to hit back in April.  Now if Margot was still fast and could play CF, or even was an above average corner outfielder, well you could live with a below average bat.  But he isn't, and yet this "platoon bat" has played more games in the OF than any other Twin this year (what a depressing statistic).  He will be 30 before the end of the year.  He will spend the remainder of his career as a placeholder at best.  That's fine if your squad has places that need holding, but when Martin and Lewis come back from the IL the Twins need to free up some places to at least give the team a chance to improve.  

[ashbury]

6 hours ago, LambchoP said:

We've got enough infielders and if we need another one due to injury, Severino has a hot bat in AAA

A hot bat in June but not July as yet, and a first baseman's glove when he's not DHing.  Severino doesn't belong in a tangent about Farmer.

[stringer bell]

3 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

The tangible reason is he's left handed. The Twins openly talk about this. It's not Wallner specific, it's all lefties. There were multiple interviews early in the year with Rocco talking about how Julien kept begging to hit against lefties and Rocco kept saying it just isn't what the Twins do, but he'll get some chances here and there. The Twins had their reasons not to let him, but he had a better OPS against lefties than righties in his time in the majors this year. 

The Twins aren't shy about this. They believe in platooning all lefties if they can. It's their base strategy. Some of us disagree with that. It's not Wallner specific why he doesn't hit against lefties. It's a core strategy of the FO and Rocco.

I don't know where the Twins will draw the line, but I hope there is a point where they say a left handed hitter is a regular player, no matter who is pitching against them. The current roster has Larnach, Wallner, and Kepler as LH hitters and there might be some justification for not feeding any of them to the wolves, but the two best prospects in the system are Jenkins and Rodriguez, both LH, and I hope they aren't completely platooned as they progress and when they make the big leagues. Very good and great hitters hit no matter what arm the pitch is thrown from. 

[wabene]

My single biggest complaint with Rocco by a large margin is his early pinch hitting of left handed batters leaving the likes of Margot to face rightys in the late innings. As is stated above this appears to be an organizational philosophy. It is a bad one. This is @Riverbrian's baby and as usual @chpettit19, among others, adds some excellent commentary. Overall great conversation. We should storm the clubhouse.

[jimbo92107]

8 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Nature figures out a way. The species adapted to it's environment. The species evolved and was able to adapt to a life with no food, water or litter box and more astonishingly... the cat was able to reproduce. 

The Box was opened in January of this year.  It created a super cat. Here's a video of what happened. 

If you think the cats that we know today could care less about you. This new super cat really really doesn't give a damn. 

I think you have just discovered an update to, "Trouble with Tribbles." 

The Copy Cat is infinitely worse!