Week in Review: Winning Out West

[Nick Nelson]

The Minnesota Twins completed a highly successful road trip, taking two of three against both Arizona and Seattle this past week behind a lineup that is firmly establishing itself as one of the best and deepest in the major leagues. 

Image courtesy of John Froschauer-USA TODAY Sports

Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 6/24 through Sun, 6/30
***
Record Last Week: 4-2 (Overall: 47-37)
Run Differential Last Week: +16 (Overall: +39)
Standing: 2nd Place in AL Central (6.0 GB) 

Last Week's Game Results:

Game 79 | ARI 5, MIN 4: Bad Breaks Late Lead to One-Run Loss
Game 80 | MIN 8, ARI 3: Miranda Leads Charge in Lopsided Win
Game 81 | MIN 13, ARI 6: Twins Steamroll D-backs in Festa's Debut
Game 82 | SEA 3, MIN 2: Defensive Miscues Prove Costly in Tight Game
Game 83 | MIN 5, SEA 1: Buxton Bashes, Backs Up López Excellence
Game 84 | MIN 5, SEA 3: Larnach's Homer Lifts Twins to Series Win

IF YOU'D RATHER LISTEN TO THE WEEK IN REVIEW THAN READ IT, YOU CAN NOW FIND IT IN PODCAST FORM. GET THE LATEST EPISODE HERE. ALSO AVAILABLE ON APPLE AND SPOTIFY.

NEWS & NOTES

We wondered last week if the Twins might choose to give Chris Paddack a break following his second straight alarming performance on the mound. Indeed they did, placing Paddack on the injured list on Tuesday with what they described as right arm fatigue. It's unclear how long Paddack might be sidelined, although it would be no surprise if he's out through the All-Star break. What matters most is ensuring he can be strong and healthy at the end of the season, and into the playoffs. 

In the meantime, Minnesota's top pitching prospect gets an audition. Following an interim bullpen stint from Ronny Henriquez, David Festa was called up to start Thursday's series finale in Arizona. Festa showed some positive signs and was awarded the win in his debut, despite giving up five earned runs in five innings. He should at least get a couple more chances to show what he can do.

HIGHLIGHTS

If Byron Buxton is truly rounding back into his top form, or something close to it, the league is in trouble. Buxton was the key difference-maker in Saturday night's win against Seattle, driving in four of the team's five runs. Three of those came on a monster home run to left-center, Buxton's fourth in five games. Days earlier he made key plays on the bases to keep rallies rolling in a win over the D-backs. For the week he was 8-for-19 with three homers and nine RBIs in five games. 

 

Buxton started the month of June on an 0-for-14 skid. Since then he has multiple hits in six of 17 games started, and is batting .343 with 10 extra-base hits. Importantly, his strikeout rate during this span is below 20%, which makes the success feel more sustainable than a fleeting hot streak. He struck out twice in 22 plate appearance last week.

From all appearances Buxton is feeling as good as he has in a long time. He's moving around well and no longer routinely wincing visibly after exerting himself. It was really encouraging to see Buxton spring up quickly after a somewhat scary wall collision in Arizona on Tuesday, no worse for the wear. The Twins are not only much more enjoyable to watch when Buck is doing his thing like this, but they can also be an extremely tough team to stop, as we've seen.

 

Buxton's emergence is bringing the Twins' star nucleus into full activation. Carlos Correa keeps on raking and taking great ABs; he went 7-for-17 this past week with three walks and just one strikeout. A scary moment unfolded on Thursday when Correa got hit by a pitch in the wrist and immediately pulled himself from the game, seemingly fearing a major injury, but X-rays thankfully came back negative. (Yet another example of the team's refreshingly improved fortune on the health front this season.) Correa was not only in the lineup the next day, but he hit a home run, his fifth in the month of June. His .311 batting average ranks fourth in the American League.

Royce Lewis, naturally, fell into a 1-for-25 slump shortly after bragging that he doesn't do the whole slumping thing, but he's still got an OPS above 1.000 for the season and is clearly a threat every time he steps into the box. Alongside these three, Minnesota continues to receive strong contributions from Willi Castro (8-for-25 with a double, triple and home run), Carlos Santana (8-for-25 with three doubles), and José Miranda (8-for-18 with two doubles, six RBIs and zero strikeouts). 

This has been arguably the best offense in baseball for a prolonged period, and credit is deserved for all involved. Since April 22nd, when they put an ugly 7-13 start behind them, the Twins are tied with the Yankees for most runs scored in the majors. Minnesota is at or near the top of the leaderboard in virtually every metric during that span, with an approach that is yielding both contact and power. They lead the American League in batting average in these 64 games, and have the fifth-lowest K-rate in the majors. On Sunday the Twins had a player homer in a franchise-record 19th consecutive game.

As long as they can stay mostly healthy, there's not much reason to think the Twins can't keep running up the score in the second half. Minnesota's lineup is deep and formidable, and they're only reaching new levels with Buxton finding himself at the plate, and Trevor Larnach's great swings finally starting to bear fruit. On top of that, they've got Brooks Lee and Matt Wallner knocking on the door rather aggressively in Triple-A. The offensive outlook for this club is blindingly bright.

In the rotation, Pablo López followed up his previous gem against Oakland with another sterling performance on Saturday, holding Seattle to one run in six innings with nine strikeouts. His ERA is back down below five. Bailey Ober posted the very same line one night earlier (6 IP, 1 ER, 9 K) and looks as locked in as he has all year. Joe Ryan struck out 10 with no walks allowed on Sunday, improving his K/BB ratio to a sensational 115-to-15 for the season. Twins starters lead the American League in strikeout rate at 24 percent.

In the bullpen, Jorge Alcalá is establishing himself as a huge bright spot. He gave up a tough-luck run and took the loss on Tuesday in Arizona, but Alcalá bounced back with scoreless innings on Friday and Saturday, striking out four. In 12 June appearances, the righty has allowed only two earned runs in 13 ⅔ innings (1.32 ERA), and he hasn't allowed a home run all year. Now that the Twins have fully committed to him in a one-inning role, Alcalá is blossoming, further dialing up his already impressive velocity. On Saturday night he registered a career-high 101.2 MPH on the gun.

 

LOWLIGHTS

In close games, you can't afford to miss on the little things, and that was the story yet again for the Twins, who lost their fifth and sixth consecutive one-run games in the series openers against Arizona and Seattle. 

 

A rare hiccup from Griffin Jax, who walked the leadoff man in the eighth inning on Friday and watched him come around to score the tying run on an error, loomed larger than it needed to. Cole Sands later took the loss in the 10th without allowing a grounder to leave the infield. 

Earlier in that game, the first run scored when Christian Vázquez failed to corral an in-time throw at home and apply the tag, worsening matters on a night where he went 0-for-4 at the plate. He was 1-for-11 last week and his OPS is down to a miserable .459 on the season. It's obviously frustrating to see these lackluster showings pile up, and overall Vázquez has clearly been a big disappointment, but I do think the calls for releasing him are a bit over the top. 

 

For one thing, it's not happening, with the veteran still owed about $15 million through next year. But also, he hasn't been as detrimental to the team as some would suggest. He's been good defensively, Friday's misplay notwithstanding, and while Vázquez has been well below the offensive standard for even a part-time glove-first catcher, it is a role with low offensive expectations. 

Even with the 33-year-old backstop starting every other game, you can live with him buried at the bottom of this ultra-deep lineup. We've seen that; Vázquez's presence hasn't stopped the Twins developing into the league's most potent offense. I hope he can show he's got a little something left in the tank during the second half, but if not, it isn't the biggest deal in the world. The Twins showed they have no problem going with Ryan Jeffers exclusively in the playoffs, and keeping Vázquez in the regular rotation now helps preserve Jeffers physically for that crucial late stage of the season.

Similarly, it's tough for me to get too worked up about the team's recent costly late-game lapses. Yes, it is true that Minnesota's last six losses have all come by one run, and relievers were tagged with the L in each, but the way many have played out is akin to what we saw on Tuesday and Friday: ordinary bad breaks and isolated miscues turning the tides in tight games. So it goes. Even with the recent string of one-run losses, the Twins are still above .500 in such games on the season (14-11). 

But that's not to say the bullpen couldn't use an upgrade or two.

TRENDING STORYLINE

As we turn the calendar to July, we're officially entering trade deadline season in Major League Baseball. The Twins are very much in the buyer category as they look to surmount Cleveland's lead in the division and put together another postseason run. Minnesota has a flourishing minor-league system with numerous high-performing, highly-regarded prospects they could dangle in the hunt for impact talent, although it remains to be seen how their self-imposed financial limitations may or may not limit their options.

Aaron Gleeman teamed up with Eno Sarris at The Athletic to put together an exhaustive overview of players who might be available on the trade market, categorized by position and tier. While there's clearly not much of an offensive need for the Twins, as things stand, there's a good argument for targeting a frontline starter and an almost undeniable case for targeting relief help.

Brock Stewart is gradually making his way back from a shoulder injury and reportedly making progress in bullpen sessions, but it's tough to feel confident in what you're getting from him the rest of the way. Jhoan Durán is an uncertainty right now amidst lost velocity and strikeouts. The plainest need for the Twins, in terms of taking the next step as a premier contender, is at least one more high-caliber relief arm for the late innings.

As such, I'll be keeping a close eye on the likes of Mason Miller, Tanner Scott, Paul Sewald and even our old friend Ryan Pressly in the coming weeks. Will they be shopped? If so, how will their markets take shape? The Twins have certainly seen the downside of paying the freight for bullpen help at the deadline (see: Jorge López) but to stand still this year would feel irresponsible, barring major developments in the next month.

LOOKING AHEAD

The Twins return home on Tuesday from their successful 6-3 road trip out west for a six-game home stand, with three against the Tigers and three the Astros. Tuesday's opener against Detroit will make for a great matchup, with Minnesota's elite lineup against lefties facing off against perhaps the best left-handed pitcher in baseball, Tarik Skubal. Houston is on the rise in the AL West following a slow start, with a lineup that will present challenges for Twins pitching.

TUESDAY, JULY 2: TIGERS @ TWINS – LHP Tarik Skubal v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
WEDNESDAY, JULY 3: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Jack Flaherty v. RHP David Festa
THURSDAY, JULY 4: TIGERS @ TWINS – RHP Kenta Maeda v. RHP Bailey Ober
FRIDAY, JULY 5: ASTROS @ TWINS – TBD v. RHP Pablo Lopez
SATURDAY, JULY 6:  ASTROS @ TWINS – RHP Hunter Brown v. RHP Joe Ryan
SUNDAY, JULY 7: ASTROS @ TWINS – RHP Spencer Arrighetti v. RHP Simeon Woods Richardson

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[tony&rodney]

A very successful week and a tough week ahead. Keep pitching and the bats will find a way.

[JD-TWINS]

I’m not as concerned with the Pen as you seem to be……guys that are available, generally, aren’t that effective. A team might pick up a mercenary like Matt Moore?

Through the balance of the Season, Topa probably has about a 10% probability to help out. Henriquez has about a 20% probability to help out. Thielbar becoming revitalized is about a 35% probability of becoming real. Funderburk & Okert & Sands & Staumont are somewhere around 50/50 of being effective.

(I don’t see anybody we might actually trade for being any higher level than the guys mentioned above)

Alcala - Jax - Duran are guys to be leaned upon!

By August 15th, there will be a commitment to Varland to the Pen. He would join the high-end group.

October…..Paddack moves to the Pen!

If Sands or Topa are the 8th guy in the Pen in October……things are good.

Paddack - Varland - Staumont - Alcala - Stewart - Jax - Duran ………Funderburk &/or Okert in October works for me…….Topa? Sands?

 

[JD-TWINS]

WON 4 of last 5 games, while on the road, without any real offensive help from Lewis. Correa didn’t play today. Couple days ago Larnach and Kepler sat. Jeffers is getting plenty of rest to be solid down the stretch.

Starters are throwing into the 6th or better nearly every day.

Byron Buxton is playing regularly! Byron Buxton is batting 7th in the line-up and taring it up!!

Castro - Miranda - Santana have combined to help the team have arguably the longest line-up in baseball, along with Baltimore.

Good stuff.

Detroit - Houston - White Sox - Giants heading into the Break. Would be Sweet if Team could take 4 consecutive Series before some time off!!!

[big dog]

I forget, are we still firing Popkins?

(ducks, runs)

[arby58]

The Vasquez it's ok mantra: he's negative WAR. Whatever defensive value he may have is outweighed by perhaps the worst offensive value of any player with his at bats in MLB this year. If you believe in WAR, then it is time to move along (other than the salary thing). But think about the salary thing - nobody else is going to pick him up, so he sits in St. Paul in case you need him. In the meantime you bring up Camargo, with a nearly .800 OPS at AAA.  Watching Vasquez hit this year is painful beyond belief.

[CoastiePilot08]

Fire Vasquez. 

[Peter]

Just keep winning series!! Tough games with Detroit/houston! Please please please no more one run games!

[bighat]

Great to see the success out West. 

Hope the Twins left Cole Sands behind when they boarded the flight. Guy makes Jay Jackson look like Mariano Rivera. Enough already. 

Buxton finding his groove is great to see. Has a chance to hit 20 homers this year, a month ago I wouldn't have believed it. 

[big dog]

15 minutes ago, Peter said:

Just keep winning series!! Tough games with Detroit/houston! Please please please no more one run games!

On the contrary- I'd really like to see this team win four one-run games in a row. Let's grab this by the neck and fix it.

[tony&rodney]

8 hours ago, arby58 said:

Watching Vasquez hit this year is painful beyond belief.

Get up and get a beverage; skip his turns at the plate. Perhaps your pain will subside.

[terrydactyls]

9 hours ago, arby58 said:

The Vasquez it's ok mantra: he's negative WAR. Whatever defensive value he may have is outweighed by perhaps the worst offensive value of any player with his at bats in MLB this year. If you believe in WAR, then it is time to move along (other than the salary thing). But think about the salary thing - nobody else is going to pick him up, so he sits in St. Paul in case you need him. In the meantime you bring up Camargo, with a nearly .800 OPS at AAA.  Watching Vasquez hit this year is painful beyond belief.

I've found a way to make watching Vasquez playing almost pain free.  Whenever he is in the starting lineup, I take a couple oxycodone pills that are left over from knee replacement surgery a few months ago (recovering from that was less painful than watching Vasquez playing).

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, arby58 said:

The Vasquez it's ok mantra: he's negative WAR. Whatever defensive value he may have is outweighed by perhaps the worst offensive value of any player with his at bats in MLB this year. If you believe in WAR, then it is time to move along (other than the salary thing). But think about the salary thing - nobody else is going to pick him up, so he sits in St. Paul in case you need him. In the meantime you bring up Camargo, with a nearly .800 OPS at AAA.  Watching Vasquez hit this year is painful beyond belief.

What’s the transition from MiLB to the Show in numbers? What does “near .800 OPS” get you in the Show?

Nobody knows, that’s the issue. Replacing Vazquez with Camargo may net us an inexperienced receiver along with a .620 OPS & to me, that’s not an upgrade.

Vazquez missed a play at home a couple games ago and it may be more tolerable if he was hitting - granted. He catches every other day. Bringing up a kid into a situation where he cannot make any mistakes behind the plate, with the staff having a big comfort level with Vazquez is a big ask!

I can’t see upsetting things to get another 5-6 hits over 100 AB’s - essentially what Camargo’s upside may be, IMO.

[tony&rodney]

The Twins do not need Vazquez to hit. They do need good defense from him. He has another year and a half on his contract. If the Twins are winning, it is not too important to stress about Vazquez, and the Twins are currently winning more than their preseason projected numbers.

[Parfigliano]

11 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

I’m not as concerned with the Pen as you seem to be……guys that are available, generally, aren’t that effective. A team might pick up a mercenary like Matt Moore?

Through the balance of the Season, Topa probably has about a 10% probability to help out. Henriquez has about a 20% probability to help out. Thielbar becoming revitalized is about a 35% probability of becoming real. Funderburk & Okert & Sands & Staumont are somewhere around 50/50 of being effective.

(I don’t see anybody we might actually trade for being any higher level than the guys mentioned above)

Alcala - Jax - Duran are guys to be leaned upon!

By August 15th, there will be a commitment to Varland to the Pen. He would join the high-end group.

October…..Paddack moves to the Pen!

If Sands or Topa are the 8th guy in the Pen in October……things are good.

Paddack - Varland - Staumont - Alcala - Stewart - Jax - Duran ………Funderburk &/or Okert in October works for me…….Topa? Sands?

 

Staumont hasn't given up an ER all year in the 17 innings he has pitched.  I'd say he has been very effective and underused.

[wabene]

I cringe every time Vazquez steps into the box, but Carmago has not taken the step forward I hoped for this year. The average OPS in AAA this year is .769. Jair's slash line of .262/.333/.485/.818 would look dang good in the majors, but it is said you can subtract 200 points of OPS from AAA to the bigs. Yes that is still better than Vazquez, but as JD pointed out Vazquez offers value behind the plate. 

This is a tough situation and I have no idea what they will do next year. This year I would take T&R's advice and hit the fridge when he comes up. Unless there is a situation for a sac bunt like the other day.

[Parfigliano]

1 hour ago, Peter said:

Just keep winning series!! Tough games with Detroit/houston! Please please please no more one run games!

What if they are one run wins?  Are those not OK?

[nclahammer]

Awesome review NIck, keep on playing fundamentally good baseball & keep barreling it up and I think the Twins will be just fine.

[nclahammer]

Jair Camarago is coming back from an injury and rehab stint and is beginning to get back into the flow of things with the Saints.   I think he will provide some value/depth to the Minnesota Twins this summer/fall.

[Doctor Gast]

Successful road trip behind us so I won't say anything more except that it was great to see the Buck Truck rolling. It was hard to see Lewis humbled but with Lewis, He'll work it out for good. I'm concerned with Theilbar, it seems that the league is on his trademark curveball. & he's trying to make something else work. It seems like we might be looking for a high-leverage LHRP, I wouldn't trust Okert or Funderburg yet. Varland will make our BP so much better, it's a pity he's still down in AAA.

We should have a much easier time with DET but HOU is returning strong. How nice it'd be if HOU & NYY were switched (NYY are falling 😀).

[JD-TWINS]

33 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Staumont hasn't given up an ER all year in the 17 innings he has pitched.  I'd say he has been very effective and underused.

Usage limited, IMO, due to 2 issues. Coming off arm issues……,has problem with walks. He was in a game 10 days or so ago where he walked 3 guys in one inning. He fortunately worked around it but I think there’s a hesitancy due to that issue. He may have needed “some rest” in the view of the organization? Not sure if he has options left - if not, could be just giving him a break on the Big Club’s roster?

He has performed, no doubt!!

[LambchoP]

If the twins are going to make a realistic playoff push, some moves need to be made. Farmer needs to go. We gave him half a season to figure it out. His replacement in Brooks Lee is playing too well right now to not make the move. Theilbar is done and gone too. Since we can't trust Okert or Funderburk in close games, we need to shop for a lefty reliever. If we get one, I think our bullpen will be fine. Especially if we get Stewart and Topa back and move Varland and maybe Paddack there too. We could use a playoff starting pitcher, but the price to pay St the deadline is going to be astronomical and I don't see it happening. Best we can hope for is the one or two internal moves and maybe getting a reliever or two from outside.

[Jeff K]

1 hour ago, JD-TWINS said:

What’s the transition from MiLB to the Show in numbers? What does “near .800 OPS” get you in the Show?

Nobody knows, that’s the issue. Replacing Vazquez with Camargo may net us an inexperienced receiver along with a .620 OPS & to me, that’s not an upgrade.

Vazquez missed a play at home a couple games ago and it may be more tolerable if he was hitting - granted. He catches every other day. Bringing up a kid into a situation where he cannot make any mistakes behind the plate, with the staff having a big comfort level with Vazquez is a big ask!

I can’t see upsetting things to get another 5-6 hits over 100 AB’s - essentially what Camargo’s upside may be, IMO.

I was on the launch Vazquez train; however, your comments turned me around.  This is especially true when the rest of the team (except) Farmer is hitting a ton.

[arby58]

4 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

What’s the transition from MiLB to the Show in numbers? What does “near .800 OPS” get you in the Show?

Nobody knows, that’s the issue. Replacing Vazquez with Camargo may net us an inexperienced receiver along with a .620 OPS & to me, that’s not an upgrade.

Let's look at just how bad he stacks up offensively. There are currently 42 catchers with at least 100 MLB at bats in 2024. Vasquez is 40th in WAR at -0.5 and 41st in OPS at .459. 

It would be practically impossible to be worse than that. Commargo last year had an .826 OPS at AAA. Brooks Lee, between AA and AAA was .808. Most people were clamoring for him to be on the MLB roster.

[big dog]

Is there any recent evidence of this supposedly better defense? It used to be true, but it seems like there have been mistakes lately, including the missed catch. Seattle stole three bases yesterday. How much is his defense helping vs his hitting?

[JD-TWINS]

46 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Let's look at just how bad he stacks up offensively. There are currently 42 catchers with at least 100 MLB at bats in 2024. Vasquez is 40th in WAR at -0.5 and 41st in OPS at .459. 

It would be practically impossible to be worse than that. Commargo last year had an .826 OPS at AAA. Brooks Lee, between AA and AAA was .808. Most people were clamoring for him to be on the MLB roster.

So, IMO, The Shiny New Toy comes into play on many of the guys people here want to see……the grass is always greener so to speak. Wanting to see Brooks Lee last year or this year has nothing to do with Vazquez. Lee is the Club’s #1 Draft Pick and there are high expectations…..makes everyone anxious!

There’s no need to show stats on how bad Vazquez is offensively…..,I watch all the games, it’s pretty apparent.

Sighting Camargo’s offensive numbers from last year are like me sighting Vazquez’s career stats…..don’t really apply to July ‘24. To my knowledge Camargo is getting healthier and contributing in St Paul again….as of last week.

Vazquez experience with pitchers, other MLB hitters, and his defense were the principal reasons for his signing. Bottom line is he’s owed $15M for next 1.5 seasons and is going nowhere, save injury. We might as well get used to it sooner than later.

[JD-TWINS]

20 minutes ago, big dog said:

Is there any recent evidence of this supposedly better defense? It used to be true, but it seems like there have been mistakes lately, including the missed catch. Seattle stole three bases yesterday. How much is his defense helping vs his hitting?

I get it, some people……(most people?) think Vazquez should be replaced somehow. Not happening. Veteran presence catching the staff and solid defensively and $15M due through ‘25, period.  ……….it’s the exact same financial timing as Max Kepler last June when everyone, including me, was saying DFA his rear. Not practical.

Relative to defense, on one steal the announcing team yesterday said he uncharacteristically threw to the back side of the base instead of the first base side where he had been having so much success this year. On another steal, former pitcher, Glenn Perkins said to Cole Sands through the broadcast booth, “…..come on, you’ve got to be quicker to the plate…”. He missed a catch and an obvious out at the plate yesterday - no doubt. No one play has any bearing on how a guy is treated in an organization…..,it’s like a guy hitting into a double-play on a 2-0 fastball…..it happens, that’s baseball.

[USAFChief]

I can understand not releasing Vazquez, but there is zero reason he has to start every other game.

None. Zip. Zilch.

That's just Rocco. 

Jeffers behind the plate 2 of every 3 makes so much sense.

I also do not think this team will get anywhere we want to go without improving the bullpen. 

[Mike Sixel]

Vazquez has started 4 more games at catcher.... Not half.

Everyone else is good, so it doesn't matter he's bad? That's no argument. 

He's got negative fwar, with the defense counted..... He's one of the worst hitters in a decade, and he starts more than half the games. 

[Mike Sixel]

Assuming varland and Stewart move to the bullpen, not sure how you add anyone realistically.