Three Buy-Low Relievers the Twins Should Kick the Tires On

[Matthew Lenz]

Recently, we looked at players from the New York Mets whom the Twins could target in a deal. One of those names was Adam Ottavino, whose surface stats are ugly, but peripherals suggest some bad luck and positive regression. Along with Ottavino, let’s look at three more “buy low” relievers available via trade.

Image courtesy of © Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports

The Twins need some relief help, but you rarely want to pay for that help. Even acquiring an established, elite reliever like Emmanuel Clase would require more prospect capital than I’m comfortable with, and history shows extreme volatility for anyone who isn’t a top-tier reliever (see Lopez, Jorge). Instead, give me a guy who, like Ottavino, looks like a DFA candidate on the surface but shows some promise “under the hood.” A reliever like that likely costs a low-level prospect years away from making any potential impact. For example, let’s look back at the Jorge Lopez trade, where Cade Povich was a borderline top 30 organizational prospect at high A, Yennier Cano was considered a cast-off, and Juan Nunez was and still is a relatively unknown name. And again, at the time, Lopez was one of the hottest names on the market…a “buy low” guy should theoretically cost far less.

So, with all that said, here are three guys I like as buy-low options for our Minnesota Twins.

LHP Andrew Chafin (DET)
While it’s not common for teams to trade within the division, it’s also not out of the question when you’re talking about relatively low-impact guys. Moreover, the Tigers are not super close to completing, so dealing with Andrew Chafin isn’t likely to come back and bite them in a hypothetical divisional race in the short-term future. Chafin has had a tough go over his last two years after looking like one of the better relievers in the game in for most of the 2017 through 2022 seasons. Since 2023, he’s posted a 4.66 ERA and a 15.9% K-BB rate despite striking out more than a quarter of the batters he has faced and limiting hard contact. 

His FIP, SIERA, and expected stats tell the story of someone who should have gotten better results over the last two years. Multiple rest-of-season projection systems agree that the 34-year-old lefty is due for some positive regression. Two things that stand out for me as possible reasons for his struggles are poor walk and barrel rates, which I think can somewhat go hand in hand. It’s not far-fetched to believe that a pitcher who is struggling with control finds themselves in unfavorable counts where they need to target the middle of the zone to avoid a walk. A considerable hesitation with Chafin for me is that not even the Milwaukee Brewers could get him on the right track last season. And if they can’t, then maybe the once reliable reliever is just another example of the seemingly unpredictable volatility of the position.

RHP Ryan Pressly (HOU)

Speaking of unpredictable downfalls, old friend Ryan Pressly might find himself available at the deadline thanks to the Houston Astros surprising struggles so far this season. The former Twins middling reliever turned Astros elite closer is sporting a 4.82 ERA this year in part thanks to an increased walk rate and a BABIP just under .400. While he’s not quite the overpowering strikeout arm he once was, he still throws the chair at an above average 28.3-percent of batters, and is still very good a limiting the long ball. Throughout his Astros career, Pressly has been know to have one of the best sliders in the game but that same pitch has been largely ineffective in 2024 despite having much of the same spin rate and movement profile.It also looks like the 35-year-old relieve has toyed with a sinker this year, which has been a point of emphasis for some Twins pitchers, and a reunion could bode well to establish that pitch. The hang-up with Pressly is the prorated $14,000,000 salary, but a mutual option for 2025 may make that roughly $5,000,000 amount an easier pill to swallow.

RHP Tyler Kinley (COL)
Unlike the previous names mentioned, the underlying metrics and projection systems aren’t a big fan of a bounce back for the Colorado Rockies match-up based closer. But he makes my list because his slider, which let him down in 2024, has a history of being practical and gives hitters a different look than they’re used to.

In addition to his slider, his mid 90’s fastball showed promise in a limited sample in 2022 but has been a bad pitch for him in the two years since. Developing a sinker and teaching Kinley to create more extension, where he is currently in the third percentile of all pitchers, could turn this into an average or better pitch to pair with a good slider. Lastly, moving away from Coors Field would help the 33-year-old righty, an extreme fly ball pitcher. While Kinley would be a bit more of a project, he is under team control through 2026 and his totally salary accumulates to less than $9,000,000 if he were to stay with the team for the next two plus seasons. Given the amount of work it would take to make him effective, I think the Twins could get him for very cheap.

To be taken seriously, the Twins must make multiple moves at the deadline, but making a “splash” add to the bullpen isn’t the move. Instead, they need to use their prospect capital to improve the lineup or even rotation, and take a flier on a lesser commodity for the bullpen. 

What are your thoughts on the names above? Is there another “buy-low” candidate you’d be interested in the club taking a chance on? Join me in the comments below!

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[DJL44]

Trades like this have the best average ROI at the deadline. They cost almost nothing and often the player's underlying talent helps them bounce back for the rest of the season despite bad results to start the season.

[Whitey333]

To me the best moves would be to dump Margot and farmer.  Bring up Lee and Wallner and let them play regularly.  Funderburk obviously is not a major league calibre pitcher.  We've lost too many prospects in some recent trades and haven't gotten much of anything in return.

[Bodie]

The Twins' biggest problem this year is inconsistency.  Hoping and praying for a reclamation project is NOT the fix for the wild swings plaguing this team.

And if you look at Falvey &Cos.  track record, you can count on an old (washed up) vet keeping his roster spot (see Joey Gallo...) and someone with promise (and options) getting a bus ticket to St. Paul.  All to roster someone off the trash heap.

[LambchoP]

None of these guys would help other than maybe Presley. But, if we're going to take on payroll it needs to be in the rotation. With Lopez struggling and both Ober and Paddack basically being un playable lately, Twins need at least one impact starter at a minimum. I think we could do a little addition by subtraction as well. Try to trade or dump Farmer, Margot and Theilbar. Call up Lee, Wallner and go after a SP with control and a leverage lefty for the bullpen. I doubt the Twins will do much of anything at the deadline though, it's pretty obvious this isn't our year. Don't have the starting pitching that carried us last year...

[Matthew Lenz]

26 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

None of these guys would help other than maybe Presley. But, if we're going to take on payroll it needs to be in the rotation. With Lopez struggling and both Ober and Paddack basically being un playable lately, Twins need at least one impact starter at a minimum. I think we could do a little addition by subtraction as well. Try to trade or dump Farmer, Margot and Theilbar. Call up Lee, Wallner and go after a SP with control and a leverage lefty for the bullpen. I doubt the Twins will do much of anything at the deadline though, it's pretty obvious this isn't our year. Don't have the starting pitching that carried us last year...

The low leverage end of the bullpen has been brutal and is continuously being shuttled back and forth between Minneapolis and St. Paul. Obviously, "buy low" indicates the need for some positive regression but couldn't disagree more that these guys wouldn't help bridge the gap between our starters and the high leverage guys.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

"To be taken seriously, the Twins must make multiple moves at the deadline"

No.  They don't.  It doesn't mean they can't, but if anyone is expecting some grand trading spree, they are very likely not to get it.  Perhaps a couple of small moves will help them, but the team we have is the team we are going to get for the most part.  The Twins don't need to "be taken seriously" by anyone in the chattering class, they just need to play well and win. 

[Matthew Lenz]

51 minutes ago, Bodie said:

The Twins' biggest problem this year is inconsistency.  Hoping and praying for a reclamation project is NOT the fix for the wild swings plaguing this team.

And if you look at Falvey &Cos.  track record, you can count on an old (washed up) vet keeping his roster spot (see Joey Gallo...) and someone with promise (and options) getting a bus ticket to St. Paul.  All to roster someone off the trash heap.

While I agree with your premise, the low leverage end of our bullpen isn't working and currently are guys that don't have the surface stats or under the hood metrics to think things are going to turn around. There's nobody currently in our minors that would have a large impact on our bullpen.

[Matthew Lenz]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

Trades like this have the best average ROI at the deadline. They cost almost nothing and often the player's underlying talent helps them bounce back for the rest of the season despite bad results to start the season.

100%. Keep the prospect capital and take a flier on a guy!

[Linus]

They definitely could use a leftie reliever. I think Thielbar will find it again as his problems are more command than stuff but Okert is mediocre and Funderburk is AAAA. The amount of love he gets on this site is more prospect puppy love.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Bodie said:

The Twins' biggest problem this year is inconsistency.  Hoping and praying for a reclamation project is NOT the fix for the wild swings plaguing this team.

And if you look at Falvey &Cos.  track record, you can count on an old (washed up) vet keeping his roster spot (see Joey Gallo...) and someone with promise (and options) getting a bus ticket to St. Paul.  All to roster someone off the trash heap.

Someone exactly like Margot.

[Parfigliano]

2 hours ago, Matthew Lenz said:

While I agree with your premise, the low leverage end of our bullpen isn't working and currently are guys that don't have the surface stats or under the hood metrics to think things are going to turn around. There's nobody currently in our minors that would have a large impact on our bullpen.

Varland could.

[TopGunn#22]

I appreciate the effort for the article Matthew but "fringy bullpen guys who have struggled this season" are not going to solve the Twins problems.  They need to fortify the bullpen by putting Varland in and moving Paddack there after calling Festa up to fill his spot in the rotation.  A trade for someone like Jesus Luzardo to bolster and deepen the rotation along with Pablo getting back on track would go a long way too.

I realize that fringy RP's who are struggling in the current season is the lowest cost, highest reward possibility.  But if we're honest, bringing in 4 guys to replace all the bullpen slugs we signed during the off season just isn't going to move the needle.  Moving on from Thielbar ASAP would also be addition by subtraction.  

[Craig Arko]

Mostly what they need is to get Stewart back healthy and effective. That might be deserving of an article. 

[1985Fan]

Twins FO should bring in an impact arm to the bullpen and rotation. I’m more concerned about Duran and his drop in velocity. He has been very hittable this year. Is there something going on with his arm or body? Bringing one of the guys proposed here will help, but not enough to make up for a diminished back-end. What has happened to Stewart? Seems like his injury is more serious than announced and Topa doesn’t seem any closer to pitching than when he went down. They need late inning, high leverage arms. BP is falling apart right now and future doesn’t look good. Then there is the rotation…..

[jud6312]

6 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

"fringy bullpen guys who have struggled this season" are not going to solve the Twins problems. 

They won't solve problems, but they'd fit in with the rest of the pen.

[jud6312]

Hard pass on reuniting with the two Twins legends. 

 

Same on Chafin, unless the give is ridiculously low. Like, lower than Sawyer Gipson-Long when he was traded to Detroit for Michael Fulmer low.

 

If they're going to be an actual contender and not just contend for the Central Division, they need something more impactful than a middle relief reclamation project. Since I doubt ownership will sign off on that (and given the recent in-season trades this FO has made), I'd prefer to get guys like Stewart, Topa, and Canterino(?) healthy and lean on "it's just like making a trade."

 

[Oldtimer]

10 hours ago, Whitey333 said:

To me the best moves would be to dump Margot and farmer.  Bring up Lee and Wallner and let them play regularly.  Funderburk obviously is not a major league calibre pitcher.  We've lost too many prospects in some recent trades and haven't gotten much of anything in return.

That makes a lot of sense. 

[Doctor Wu]

Kinley has had a rough season so far, but then again he's pitching in Colorado. If we can pick him for what amounts to nothing, or not much at all, it's worth taking a chance. But I'm not so sure these sorts of "buy low" moves are what we need to get us into contention for the playoffs. 

[LambchoP]

Sure wish there were some updates on Stewart, Topa and Canterino. Seeing as we aren't really getting updates makes me think these guys are more hurt than initially thought. All three could have had a great impact on our bullpen. I think our best move now is to try to grab a starting pitcher with control at the deadline and move Paddack to the bullpen. Call up Festa and Varland and see who takes over a rotation spot. Move Zebby up to AAA, see what he can do in the Saints rotation. I really think he's our best pitching prospect and should be off limits in trade talks. Festa, Raya, Soto...sure,if it brings us cheap, impact pitching.

[old nurse]

23 hours ago, Matthew Lenz said:

While I agree with your premise, the low leverage end of our bullpen isn't working and currently are guys that don't have the surface stats or under the hood metrics to think things are going to turn around. There's nobody currently in our minors that would have a large impact on our bullpen.

While your premise is correct that there are parts of the Twins bullpen that need improvement, the solution of adding other players that are also failing does not change the problem. Yes Presley in a sown year would be an improvement. It does not get the Twins deep into the playoffs. When the Twins traded for Fulmer the Twins received a pitcher that was having a decent season and only gave up a fringe prospect

[Matthew Lenz]

On 6/22/2024 at 11:31 AM, Parfigliano said:

Varland could.

How would we know that? 

[Matthew Lenz]

20 hours ago, old nurse said:

While your premise is correct that there are parts of the Twins bullpen that need improvement, the solution of adding other players that are also failing does not change the problem. Yes Presley in a sown year would be an improvement. It does not get the Twins deep into the playoffs. When the Twins traded for Fulmer the Twins received a pitcher that was having a decent season and only gave up a fringe prospect

Fulmer wasn't great by any means but a 3.70 ERA (Duran's is currently 3.91) in 24 1/3 innings where half of the ER came in two innings seems fairly serviceable to me. TBH that's exactly the type of addition I want for the bullpen...make a bigger "splash" elsewhere.

[Matthew Lenz]

22 hours ago, Doctor Wu said:

Kinley has had a rough season so far, but then again he's pitching in Colorado. If we can pick him for what amounts to nothing, or not much at all, it's worth taking a chance. But I'm not so sure these sorts of "buy low" moves are what we need to get us into contention for the playoffs. 

This alone wouldn't, but my take is you can improve the bullpen with a move like this and use the prospect capital to make a splash elsewhere.

[old nurse]

1 hour ago, Matthew Lenz said:

Fulmer wasn't great by any means but a 3.70 ERA (Duran's is currently 3.91) in 24 1/3 innings where half of the ER came in two innings seems fairly serviceable to me. TBH that's exactly the type of addition I want for the bullpen...make a bigger "splash" elsewhere.

If Fulmer wasn’t good by any means why are you suggesting trading for a pitcher that has blown more games for Detroit than Fulmer did for the Twins and has been pretty much been regulated to mop up duty?. If you think the Twins could fix Chafin, the why is Thielbar fixed.