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The Twins need some relief help, but you rarely want to pay for that help. Even acquiring an established, elite reliever like Emmanuel Clase would require more prospect capital than I’m comfortable with, and history shows extreme volatility for anyone who isn’t a top-tier reliever (see Lopez, Jorge). Instead, give me a guy who, like Ottavino, looks like a DFA candidate on the surface but shows some promise “under the hood.” A reliever like that likely costs a low-level prospect years away from making any potential impact. For example, let’s look back at the Jorge Lopez trade, where Cade Povich was a borderline top 30 organizational prospect at high A, Yennier Cano was considered a cast-off, and Juan Nunez was and still is a relatively unknown name. And again, at the time, Lopez was one of the hottest names on the market…a “buy low” guy should theoretically cost far less.
So, with all that said, here are three guys I like as buy-low options for our Minnesota Twins.
LHP Andrew Chafin (DET)
While it’s not common for teams to trade within the division, it’s also not out of the question when you’re talking about relatively low-impact guys. Moreover, the Tigers are not super close to completing, so dealing with Andrew Chafin isn’t likely to come back and bite them in a hypothetical divisional race in the short-term future. Chafin has had a tough go over his last two years after looking like one of the better relievers in the game in for most of the 2017 through 2022 seasons. Since 2023, he’s posted a 4.66 ERA and a 15.9% K-BB rate despite striking out more than a quarter of the batters he has faced and limiting hard contact.
His FIP, SIERA, and expected stats tell the story of someone who should have gotten better results over the last two years. Multiple rest-of-season projection systems agree that the 34-year-old lefty is due for some positive regression. Two things that stand out for me as possible reasons for his struggles are poor walk and barrel rates, which I think can somewhat go hand in hand. It’s not far-fetched to believe that a pitcher who is struggling with control finds themselves in unfavorable counts where they need to target the middle of the zone to avoid a walk. A considerable hesitation with Chafin for me is that not even the Milwaukee Brewers could get him on the right track last season. And if they can’t, then maybe the once reliable reliever is just another example of the seemingly unpredictable volatility of the position.
RHP Ryan Pressly (HOU)
Speaking of unpredictable downfalls, old friend Ryan Pressly might find himself available at the deadline thanks to the Houston Astros surprising struggles so far this season. The former Twins middling reliever turned Astros elite closer is sporting a 4.82 ERA this year in part thanks to an increased walk rate and a BABIP just under .400. While he’s not quite the overpowering strikeout arm he once was, he still throws the chair at an above average 28.3-percent of batters, and is still very good a limiting the long ball. Throughout his Astros career, Pressly has been know to have one of the best sliders in the game but that same pitch has been largely ineffective in 2024 despite having much of the same spin rate and movement profile.It also looks like the 35-year-old relieve has toyed with a sinker this year, which has been a point of emphasis for some Twins pitchers, and a reunion could bode well to establish that pitch. The hang-up with Pressly is the prorated $14,000,000 salary, but a mutual option for 2025 may make that roughly $5,000,000 amount an easier pill to swallow.
RHP Tyler Kinley (COL)
Unlike the previous names mentioned, the underlying metrics and projection systems aren’t a big fan of a bounce back for the Colorado Rockies match-up based closer. But he makes my list because his slider, which let him down in 2024, has a history of being practical and gives hitters a different look than they’re used to.
In addition to his slider, his mid 90’s fastball showed promise in a limited sample in 2022 but has been a bad pitch for him in the two years since. Developing a sinker and teaching Kinley to create more extension, where he is currently in the third percentile of all pitchers, could turn this into an average or better pitch to pair with a good slider. Lastly, moving away from Coors Field would help the 33-year-old righty, an extreme fly ball pitcher. While Kinley would be a bit more of a project, he is under team control through 2026 and his totally salary accumulates to less than $9,000,000 if he were to stay with the team for the next two plus seasons. Given the amount of work it would take to make him effective, I think the Twins could get him for very cheap.
To be taken seriously, the Twins must make multiple moves at the deadline, but making a “splash” add to the bullpen isn’t the move. Instead, they need to use their prospect capital to improve the lineup or even rotation, and take a flier on a lesser commodity for the bullpen.
What are your thoughts on the names above? Is there another “buy-low” candidate you’d be interested in the club taking a chance on? Join me in the comments below!
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