Jhoan Durán’s Decreased Velocity is Forcing Pitch Mix Changes

[Cody Christie]

Twins fans love to see Jhoan Durán make his famous entrance at Target Field and throw triple-digit fastballs to secure a save. His velocity has declined in 2024, though, and that is forcing Minnesota’s closer to re-evaluate his pitch usage. Is it time to be concerned?

Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

Jhoan Durán's season hasn't gotten off to a perfect start. In spring training, the team shut him down after he felt tightness in his right oblique while warming up for a live batting practice session. He began the year on the IL and missed the season’s first month. Since returning, his results haven't matched those he achieved in previous seasons. He has set multiple velocity records during his big-league tenure, including a 104.8-mph fastball that he immortalized on the back of his custom cleats. During the 2023 season, he had four pitches registered at 104.4 mph or higher. He’s known for his high velocity, but a drop in velocity has changed how he uses his pitches this season.

Four-Seamer
2023 Average Velocity: 101.8
2024 Average Velocity: 100.6 (-1.2 mph)
Fans sometimes vent frustration on social media when Durán doesn’t come out and throw his fastball regularly. However, there is a method to the madness. Big-league hitters can square up a fastball, even when facing one with Durán’s velocity. During the 2023 season, batters posted a .375 SLG and a .311 wOBA, the highest totals he allowed on any of his pitches. Last season, he threw his fastball nearly 45% of the time, but he’s dropped that to 34.3% so far this season. His fastball reached 101.6 during Sunday’s appearance, but averaged around 100 mph. Duran’s four-seamer gets the majority of the hype, but it’s his worst pitch when it comes to results. For his long-term success, an increase in the usage of his other pitches might help. 

Curveball
2023 Average Velocity: 87.7
2024 Average Velocity: 86.5 (-1.2 mph)
Durán’s most significant change in pitch mix this season has been an increased reliance on his curveball. Last season, he used his curve 27.7% of the time; he's increased that to 35.2%. Unfortunately, that’s the pitch he threw to Cleveland’s Will Brennan, resulting in a walk-off three-run home run Sunday. After the game, he told reporters that he wanted to go after Brennan with a fastball, and that it wasn’t his decision to throw the curveball. Opponents were held to a .125 xBA and .207 xSLG against his curveball in 2023, making it arguably his best pitch. The hook has given up the hardest contact this year, including two home runs. It will be interesting to see if he turns to other pitches if his curveball continues to get hit hard.   

Splinker
2023 Average Velocity: 98.4
2024 Average Velocity: 97.2 (-1.2 mph)
Duran’s splitter is also a record-breaking pitch, as it was the first off-speed pitch in MLB history to be clocked at over 100 mph. He has also seen an increase in splitter usage, from 27.3% to 30.6% this season. The pitch is used less often because of its low Whiff%. During the 2023 season, batters posted a 26.8 Whiff% against his splitter, nine points lower than his fastball and over 10 points lower than his curveball. So far this season, batters have yet to get a hit versus Duran’s splitter, but his 12.5 Put Away% doesn’t make it an effective weapon. Last season, it resulted in a 31.0 Put Away%, so he must find a way to use this pitch more effectively. That could mean tweaking its entire profile, though, which would need to wait until this offseason. As it's currently working, the "splinker" isn't going to miss many bats, because it works more like a sinker than like a true splitter. It could be a good way for him to get ground balls and avoid the hard contact that has plagued the curve, but it has to be used carefully against left-handed batters.

Minnesota’s success this season relies heavily on having a solid bullpen to close out games. Durán is critical to that success, so he must find the best pitch mix to deal with his decreased velocity. Baseball is a game of adjustments, and now that he seems not to be Mr. 104.8 anymore, it’s time for Durán to find what works best for him. 

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Can Durán’s pitch mix adjustments help his results? Are you worried about his drop in velocity? Leave a comment and start the discussion.

 

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[Patzky]

It's a frustrating but fascinating thing to look under the hood when your hot rod isn't running at 100 percent. Is it the coach or the catcher that need tinkering to get the engine to run optimally? Taking a second between laps or pitches to recalibrate is advisable.

[bean5302]

Velocity in 2024 (100.7) is the same as 2022 (100.9) and less than 1mph off from the first 15 appearances in 2023 (101.5). His velocity will probably improve a little as the season continues. Not sure about why the catchers are calling what they're calling, but apparently they're not on the same page as Duran atm.

[Schmoeman5]

I don't think it's a velocity issue. After watching the 9th again. I think it's more of a command issue. He threw fastballs to the hitter he walked. If the hitter can eliminate the fastball out of the equation then it doesn't matter if he throws 120. I believe he had a similar rough patch last year. And as @USAFChiefmentioned in another post. I'm pretty sure the pitch selection comes from the bench.

[Doctor Gast]

It doesn't hurt to fine tune. But basically he's just started his season. Don't you think that maybe he can still increase his FB velo?

[miller761]

Agree it is all command. Velocity will increase with warmer temperatures. He has to work on command. Pitch yesterday was in a sweet spot for a left handed batter.

[SotaSports in NM]

Could his oblique injury be in play with the decrease in velocity and command?

[CRF]

As others have stated...his velo is fine. His issues are due to his command, which is probably directly related to the oblique injury. The pitch selection is coming from the bench...either Rocco or Maki, and they not utilizing Duran's FB as much as it should be. Stop messing around with off speed stuff and throw gas. The guy is our best weapon out of the pen, and he's not being used correctly. If Duran was on a different team, he'd be lights out. 

[MABB1959]

He is very much needed since the offense is struggling to produce runs.  I feel bad for all the pitchers.  I think they pitch better when they have lead.

The pitching staff can throw a gem and still lose!

[mikelink45]

To answer your question- it's always time to be concerned when things aren't going well. Not time to panic but time to be concerned and make adjustments. We need him to be what he has always been. 

[Guest]

I'm smelling a shoulder issue....

[FilthyMogwai]

40 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

I'm smelling a shoulder issue....

More irresponsible injury speculation that is the norm for this forum.

[Guest]

3 hours ago, FilthyMogwai said:

More irresponsible injury speculation that is the norm for this forum.

Fair enough.  What are the other possible explanations for the velo drops vs his 2023 performance evidenced above for a supposedly healthy pitcher in his prime?

[NotAboutWinning]

6 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Fair enough.  What are the other possible explanations for the velo drops vs his 2023 performance evidenced above for a supposedly healthy pitcher in his prime?

Perhaps the human body is not designed to throw baseballs 105 mph. Just because you can, doesn't mean you should.

[Old Crow]

Pitch calling from the bench was this an issue with Gray last year?

[Guest]

1 hour ago, NotAboutWinning said:

Perhaps the human body is not designed to throw baseballs 105 mph. Just because you can, doesn't mean you should.

Fair enough.  Hey, today I'm going to throw my fastball and breaking balls 2 mph slower because I want to take it easy on my body --- sound right?

[KBJ1]

Paddock & Ryan throw 93 & get a ton of K's.

It really is all about location and movement. There are guys who 97 and get hit hard. For Duran, he should just go after them with the 4 seamer and splinker for ground balls with men on base. Simplify it. 

[JD-TWINS]

19 hours ago, CRF said:

As others have stated...his velo is fine. His issues are due to his command, which is probably directly related to the oblique injury. The pitch selection is coming from the bench...either Rocco or Maki, and they not utilizing Duran's FB as much as it should be. Stop messing around with off speed stuff and throw gas. The guy is our best weapon out of the pen, and he's not being used correctly. If Duran was on a different team, he'd be lights out. 

I too agree that his pitch mix, trying to fool people with his curveball is over done! At the very least, he needs to routinely Show his fastball!!!

However, he’s given up runs in only 2 of 8 outings. He was essentially flawless prior to Friday. “If Duran were on a different team, he’d be lights out” ????? …………can’t get any better than 0.00 ERA through 6 appearances. DURAN hung two curveballs in Cleveland, not the coaching staff. If he locates the curve down 6” from the release likely neither pitch is hit. AGREED, if he throws a fastball on Sunday prior to the curve, the hitter has a much different level of success. Friday, Ramirez worked the count for a bit and got on a hanging curve. A curve up in the zone, from anyone, often gets punished in the SHOW! He knows how to pitch - how to locate - how to get guys out………not on the coaching staff!

[JD-TWINS]

Other guys throw 100Mph plus a few tenths and they are viewed as absolute flame throwers ………..going from 102 down to 100.5 is a silly thing to describe as a problematic area for a pitcher! (94 down to 92.5, OK) 

Duran didn’t locate Sunday with his fastball - it was plenty fast enough - 4 straight out of the zone was the problem. Having a prolonged at bat with a Top 5-10 hitter in the game on Friday was challenging. He hung a curve and it got ripped  - 1 poorly controlled curveball. That’s it…….,,Sunday, he started a guy with a hanging curve and then after the game said he didn’t want to throw it - he’s gotta man up!! Shake the catcher off - locate the curve better (down a bit) and in either case there’s no issue. Players play - bottom line - he didn’t execute either mentally, with the shake off nor physically, with the lack of command.

Velocity being down 1.5 Mph on his fastball and 1.2Mph on his splinker as an alarm or an excuse, to me, is nuts! Pitch mix and location were the issues.

Last, he often comes into a game principally throwing 2 of his 3 pitches. If it’s a curveball/fastball night, teams pick up on it and sit in the slower, only hittable pitch. To me, that’s what happened Sunday.

[insagt1]

many here remember watching Greg Maddux weave his magic on the mound. And it sure wasn't with a blazing fastball. He had 'location' down to an art form much the same as Ted Williams having hitting a baseball down to an art form. Maddux was able to keep hitters off balance and he was so good at throwing strikes around the edges, umpires frequently gave him the close calls. Command begets respect. But there aren't many like Maddux. Still he proved you don't have to throw the ball a zillion MPH to get good hitters out. Not sure the kids coming up today are being taught that.

[Linus]

Durán has three good pitches so it would be foolish to not use them all. Especially because he gives up more hard hit balls with his fastball. He has to guard against getting predictable which may have come into play with the curve that was hit out. His fastball doesn’t have a ton of movement so he does have to locate it well even with high velocities. I wonder if he could take a couple mph off the splinker so it acted more like a change. 
Lastly the reduction in velocity could easily be that his mechanics are a little rough from his delayed start. 

[Whitey333]

Yes you have to have more than one good pitch.  Location and movement are essential.  I think he will be fine.  My concern is with possible or likely injury at some point.  He throws so hard and is so dominant that a likely future tommy john surgery seems inevitable.  I surely hope not but with his velocity I'm not sure he can avoid it.  Yes I used the word velocity instead of velo.  I hope that passes the censors.

[JD-TWINS]

19 hours ago, Minderbinder said:

Fair enough.  What are the other possible explanations for the velo drops vs his 2023 performance evidenced above for a supposedly healthy pitcher in his prime?

The change is 1.2Mph in splinker velo and 1.8Mph on fastball…….just not a big deal. If they started in mid-90’s and he dropped to low 90’s there would be concern. His stuff is still HIGH VELOCITY, elite and is effective. He hung curveballs in back to back games after not giving up a run in 6 outings.Kot cool but it happens. It’s a command issue and focus issue. Nothing to do with velocity drop.