Bullpen Blues?

[stringer bell]

Before the season started, many thought that the Twins' bullpen would be a team strength. There certainly was reason for optimism. The back end had Griffin Jax, Brock Stewart and Jhoan Durán, with Caleb Thielbar and Justin Topa as other late inning options. The middle relief had lots of options--Jay Jackson, Josh Staumont, Jorge Alcalá, lefties Steven Okert and Kory Funderburk. Honestly, it looked like too much major league talent for the roster. 

Then, injuries happened. In quick succession, Durán, Topa, Thielbar and Staumont were ruled out for the beginning of the season. As a group, the bullpen handled the injuries quite well, having a low ERA and high strikeout rate through April. The return of Durán was mitigated by the loss of Stewart. Thielbar returned, but so far hasn't been that effective. Guys who looked decent in April--Jackson, Cole Sands and Okert haven't been able to get key outs. The team bullpen ERA has skyrocketed in May (next to the worst in baseball). Meanwhile, all the injuries resulted in cameos for Ronny Henriquez, Matt Bowman, Mike Tonkin and the promotion to the 40-man roster for Caleb Boushley. Staumont has thrown one inning so far and Topa is still on the Injured List with a knee injury.

What does the near future hold? With relief pitchers, it is anyone's guess. Relievers are so volatile. Optimistically, having Stewart return sometime in May would really strengthen the BP. Getting health and effectiveness from Alcalá, Thielbar, Topa and Okert would bridge the gap to the back end. There are enough guys who have had success that it should be expected that some will be effective going forward.

Individually, Caleb Thielbar appears to have had a lot of bad luck in his 8 plus innings of work. Hitter BABiP against him is .423 despite allowing only 29.6% hard hit rate. He's walked too many, but one might expect that number to improve as he shakes off the rust of his IL stint. Cole Sands was a revelation in April, not so much in May. As noted by many, he might have been overused recently. However, it might also be regression to the mean for a guy allowing a 40.9% hard-hit rate with a 90.7 mph average exit velocity. Jay Jackson has pitched poorly in his last three outings, all games where the Twins' bullpen melted down. He's allowed seven runs while getting seven outs in those games. There is no underlying stat that really promises a turnaround. 

There has been speculation among the TD faithful that Louie Varland should go back to the bullpen to help the parent team. I think that given the lack of proven depth in the starting rotation, it is a bit premature and unnecessary at this point. There are a lot of unknowns going forward, but there is some hope as well. In the end, I think Twins' bullpen success will end up in line with the team's success (or failure). 

[Althebum82]

Yeah, Jackson is the one who has my attention.  He has never pitched more than 30 MLB innings in a single season over a lengthy career (with several years being in Japan).  After a good performance in a limited role last year, it did make sense to give him a try.  But one has to wonder how patient the team can afford to be with him as they look forward to the conclusion of Topa's and Stewart's IL tenure.

Your overall point is dead on, though......relievers can be quite volatile.  

[Parfigliano]

Topa is another example of the TC trading for damaged goods.

[SwainZag]

41 minutes ago, Parfigliano said:

Topa is another example of the TC trading for damaged goods.

DIdn’t Topa get hurt during spring training?

[wabene]

Agree with Stringer's assessment here. Louie will have to wait. The bright side (with a couple of ifs, lol) is just like last year, if we make the playoffs and if these guys stay healthy, reinforcements will be available. Varland, Paddack unless he emerges as a playoff starter and even guys like Festa could be available from the pen. Of course guys like Stewart and Topa get healthy. Some of them available down the stretch too. That really worked out nicely last year. I don't remember seeing that done so well before, that pen was formidable by the end.

 

Canterino.....

[Doctor Gast]

I agree Stringer basically with your assessment that the BP is a concern, BP is always a concern because it's so volatile. I'm in the camp that think that Varland would be of better use up in the MLB club as an elite long reliever & spot starter than down in AAA. Having him in this capacity doesn't eliminate him from being in the rotation if the need arises. Having Varland in the BP helps take the pressure off the BP & rotation & frees us up to trade excess questionable non-options BP arms. Canterino should be an excellent replacement for Varland in the BP once he's needed in the rotation. Besides Varland we have Festa to step into the rotation, I'd also like to sign a guy like Rich Hill to a MiLB contract & be a safety-net, mentor & rock to stabilize the young arms.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

The Jackson signing was odd from the start. I can see taking a flier on a younger pitcher and trying to tweak his delivery or something like that. But the book's written on Jackson considering his age. Velocity's down from 2023. Would much rather have Varland in the bullpen. I think he can follow a similar path as Jax did.

[tony&rodney]

Bullpens are tenuous even in a good year. Guys get hurt, have ineffective outings from time to time, and overuse is a constant concern. For example, Jax was used too often just recently, Stewart went on the IL, and Thielbar has been inconsistent. The Twins seem to have enough arms but will need to find ways to spread out the workload amongst relievers who are effective.

The Twins were counting on Topa but he has been injured or not good for most of the last decade. Jackson might be a mirage as well. There are guys like Sands, Staumont, Funderburk, and more who could be decent through the year and support the pitchers we hope stay solid like Duran, Stewart, Jax, Thielbar, and Okert. It is a long season and there are going to be times when the bullpen is in a down phase. Hopefully that can be minimized.

Perhaps one way to reduce stress on the relievers is to allow the starters to go another inning when they are throwing free and easy. Ober has been lifted several times with only 80 plus pitches thrown and the game well in hand. Perhaps he needed to be lifted but when the schedule has an off day it seems like Lopez, Ryan, and Ober would have little trouble going another inning after an easy stretch in the game where they reached 80-9- pitches.

[Doctor Wu]

We signed or traded for, or just picked up on waivers, a BUNCH of relief pitchers during the off-season. Some intriguing arms in the bunch, but most of them seemed (to me) like roll-of-the-dice sorts of acquisitions. In any case, I wasn't ready to proclaim our bullpen one of the best in the league. Some obvious potential, but still too early to call some of these pitchers great additions or mistakes. We obviously weren't going to go out and sign a higher-priced free agent, so we'll had to remain somewhat content with these other additions. Once in a while we can strike gold by finding a retread like Brock Stewart, or getting someone like Duarte, only to have them get injured and out for a while, or even the rest of the season. Gotta keep taking chances, simply because there doesn't seem to be any tried and true formula for finding good arms. 

[JD-TWINS]

9 hours ago, SwainZag said:

DIdn’t Topa get hurt during spring training?

Flared up then, it’s been a recurring issue with his knee. Held up well in ‘23. 

[JD-TWINS]

I really don’t expect to see Stewart until early, mid-June. 15 day IL & then re-evaluate and then a couple week ramp up after cleared to make sure he’s good to go.

Topa is icing on the cake at this point. Disappointing but that’s probably realistic.

Broad thoughts on PEN:

Alcala - Staumont - Jensen - Henriquez  will be filling the last 2 spots as they have options.

Duran - Jax - Funderburk - Sands - Okert - Thielbar - Jackson are the core for short-term.

Stewart - Topa in June??

If SWR can hold up I could see him being the optional #4 Starter in October.

Paddack & Varland part of a 9 man Pen in the Playoffs. 

[wabene]

15 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Flared up then, it’s been a recurring issue with his knee. Held up well in ‘23. 

Patella tendonitis, eh? Sound familiar? Maybe it's the plica.

[DocBauer]

Something I had never in a million years thought of until listening to Aaron and John recently discussing the pen and the recent winning that was what, 17 wins in 20 games, right? Unless you are blowing out your opponent in some of those games, or getting yourself blown out in a loss or two, winning that many games is awesome, but it also means your pen is getting a fair amount of work in order to hold on to leads, or keep the game close for a comeback, vs maybe a day "off" where someone can take a hit for the team. 

But also, the Twins just completed a stretch of 13 games in a row, followed by another 10 game stretch. That's 23 games with a single day off between each stretch. That's a lot of bullpen innings over 24 days, yes?

I say this as I'm wondering if there isn't maybe a little bit of fatigue present vs just a collection of guys being bad all at once.. That might help explain a really good first 3 weeks, and a not so good 3 weeks following, even though the Twins were winning.

I applauded want the FO did this offseason for the pen. The depth created has been very important, even though some of that depth is already gone, or hasn't appeared yet. I thought Topa as probably the 5th man in the pen was pretty big. Okert isn't outstanding, but he's got a solid track record overall and as the probably 6th man, second lefty in competition with Funderburk, I liked that acquisition as well. Smart flier on Staumont who could be important if he could get back to 90% of his old self at some point. Then we add in Sands, Funderburk, Alcala, Winder, all for depth and competition and things looked pretty rosy.

Topa has yet to pitch and there are no feel good reports at the moment as to when. Duran, Theilbar, and Stewart have had only a handful of games all together. Duarte, the camp surprise, lasted all of a week before his arm blew out. (of course it did).  But despite some recent bad outings, I don't think the sky is falling at all. And I'm hoping Monday being an off day allowed for a couple arms to refresh some.

Duran, Jax, and Stewart were 3 of the top 4 when plans were laid. That's a great trio! Stewart may have need to be monitored a bit, but he should be back fairly soon, and nothing wrong but a little inflamation. (knock on wood!) As @stringer bellpoints out, Thielbar hasn't been great since he's been back, as the #4 man and top LH in the pen. But he may indeed be having a little bit of bad luck so far, he's probably shaking a little rust off, and his curveball has been one of the sickest I can ever remember seeing. 

I still feel good about that 4. As to the rest of the pen?

1} Keep Funderburk up unless absolutely necessary to send him down for a roster swap out. He's been solid, he's been pretty good in his career against RHP, and it doesn't matter if 3 of your 8 man pen arms are LH. There's a lot of good hitting LH bats that let you counter that way.

2} Keep running Okert out there. Like the rest of the pen, good 3 weeks, not so great 3 weeks. Solid veteran with a decent history. I sure wouldn't give up on him at this point. 

3} Use Duran the way he's meant to be used, 1 inning at a time unless absolutely necessary, in an emergency, for more. He's shown the ability to dominate for that 1 inning at a time, and could be used...I think reliably...in the 7th inning often. Racking up innings and pitch counts the way they have works counter intuitively to the kind of pitcher he is.

4} Sands may or may not be turning back in a pumpkin. I think he's been over used a bit lately not only in games, consecutive games, but also by warming up too many times and not being used. But he's been a SP entirely until 2023's conversion to the pen. He's literally built to be a guy in the pen capable of going more than 1 inning without wearing himself out. The fact that he showed some progress last season, and started this year off great, only shows growth and development to, perhaps, be a long term fixture in the pen. But why does he have to be the next Jax? 

That MIGHT be the best 8 overall. Buuuuut......

5} I don't know that Staumont is back after limited rehab innings and a brief appearance with the Twins. But again, if he's even 90% of the way back at some point, he's a big boost and might shuffle the pen hierarchy some.

6} If and when Topa is able to contribute...even for the second half...he's probably an even bigger boost than Staumont and definitely changes the complexion of the pen.

7} Henriquez, Winder, and even Balazovic are former starters turned relievers that might be able to replace Jackson...who's suddenly no longer a ground ball pitcher, has lost velocity, and has frankly looked bad...if nobody else does, to provide another multiple innings arm for the pen. Yes, I know Balazovic is a long shot, but there's some arm talent there, and he's looked fairly decent for St Paul recently. Henriquez has flashed a little promise and is on the 40 man, as is Winder, who's now doing his rehab. 

8} A dark horse option? What about 30yp veteran Diego Castillo who was a quality setup man for 5 straight seasons before the blip that was 2023. So far, he's off to a good start with St Paul. Is the stuff still there, or close to being ready?

Yes, there could be late year options like Varland in the pen like he was at the end of 2023, or Canterino, or someone else stepping up, or even a deadline deal for a solid arm. But if we don't keep having a rash of injuries, there's a really good looking pen available, with at least a little depth, if we can just keep everyone relatively healthy, remove the worse denominator, and use a couple of arms in the manner they seem best fit for.

 

[ashbury]

9 hours ago, wabene said:

Patella tendonitis, eh? Sound familiar? Maybe it's the plica.

They should ask around.

[Rosterman]

There's always a couple of possibilities in the minors. Blewett is one. Boushley is on the 40-man, so he SHOULD get a call if Simeon goes short again.

Varland could be a choice for long relief. I would tend to favor him for that position. Don't forget, Henriquez is also still in the mix. And Brock Stewart may return.

If Topa and Alcala can prep for mid-season, and Sands can hold on. Also remember that the Twins do have Winder, although adding him back into the mix means you have to make a 40-man roster spot.

 

[wabene]

1 hour ago, ashbury said:

They should ask around.

I wish it was the plica