Ranking the Twins Veterans Most Likely to Be Let Go

[Patzky]

1 hour ago, David Maro said:

After watching Pham play in Chicago this week,he would have been a better signing than Margot.

I think we'll see 'reminders' like Pham all season..

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Margot is the only player on this list that has any chance of being let go. Personally, I'd let him loose and give DaShawn Keirsey his roster spot - the kid is legit in CF and has really improved his hitting the last couple of years.

It would make the OF more left-handed but Margot hasn't even been hitting left handed pitching all that well and he's been worse against LHP during this winning streak than he was before it.

[JD-TWINS]

25 minutes ago, twinsfansd said:

I don't think anybody will be leaving until after Royce comes back at least. And why deplenish the supply of bullpen arms. Keep as many as possible and mix and match as injuries and performance call for.

Only so much room on the roster, can’t keep everyone …….only so many guys with options. In Jackson’s case, he can’t be optioned so he’d have to be released.

I see them having him eat innings and pitch when well ahead or at least a little behind. If he gets better he’s around for long haul - if just average, they may try to package him in a trade in July. They have Varland & a couple other options as a back-up for bullpen late in the year.

[Doctor Gast]

1 hour ago, Jeff K said:

I don't think I understand your comment that Julien is stuck on 2nd.  That's where he belongs, his fielding has improved and Polanco is on the downside of his career.

I was talking about our better options at 1B, Basically, Julien is the only available 2Bman. Because of that unfortunately he's no longer an option at 1B. I wasn't comparing him to Polanco.

[mikelink45]

If the premise that they will go during the season, Margot is the best choice with Martin ready to take his position and other minor leaguers that would deserve playing time.  Relief pitchers coming back - Jackson should go, Alcala should be back with Topa.

If we look at next year - Santana should not be back.  I like WIlli, Farmer is too expensive. 

[bean5302]

12 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

I was talking about our better options at 1B, Basically, Julien is the only available 2Bman. Because of that unfortunately he's no longer an option at 1B. I wasn't comparing him to Polanco.

Julien, Martin, Farmer, Castro, Prato. They can all play 2B so 2B remains the lowest area of concern for the Twins.

[stringer bell]

54 minutes ago, Craig Arko said:

If Buxton goes to the IL, Martin returns and Margot is the backup. Castro continues to play all over, Then when Buxton and Lewis return, a decision needs to be made.

That is assuming there are no other position player injuries in the meantime. Very likely that someone else is injured and on the IL when Lewis is ready to return.

[nicksaviking]

As much as I want Margot to be Margone, my math says with his 10M salary in 2024, 2M 2025 buyout minus the 4M the Dodgers sent the Twins, means the Twins would be eating 8M. Not only does that insanely make him the most expensive player on this list, but the most expensive acquisition this offseason.

With their self imposed budget constraints I have no idea how this lunacy occurred, but I'd guess his salary actually makes him the LEAST likely to be DFA'd.

These low-end veteran acquisitions kill this club every year. How long before they finally learn from these follies?

[bean5302]

46 minutes ago, Seth Stohs said:

10-game winning streak and we're taling about getting rid of guys, eh?

Jackson could be this year's Jharel Cotton because of the guaranteed contract. He could likely be sent down, clear waivers and get outrighted several times throughout the season as needed. 

Margot's fine in the corners. Can hit lefties. But yeah, he's susceptible if there are roster crunches. 

I think the 10 game winning streak has activated a safety relief valve for pent up frustration in the fan base, but a large contingent of fans are still pretty disappointed in what most consider perplexing, if not foolhardy, offseason strategy for the front office. The fact almost all the acquisitions and unexpected carryovers have started the season off cold as Lake Superior singing in her icewater mansion has led to the fanbase seeking a scapegoat.

Regardless, it's never a bad time to evaluate a roster and Margot truly looks like he's the new Tim Anderson out there. To see a player fall off so quickly is strange, but it's not unprecedented. I'd be surprised if Margot's position was even on the warm seat at the moment, though.

[RpR]

9 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Julien, Martin, Farmer, Castro, Prato. They can all play 2B so 2B remains the lowest area of concern for the Twins.

Martin is a horrible infielder; Julien and Farmer have that covered.

Shoeman made me check som stats. at MLB -- Martin is a better 2nd baseman than Julien

[bean5302]

Just now, RpR said:

Martin is a horrible infielder; Julien and Farmer have that covered.

Martin was one of the best 2B in the league last year.

[Doctor Gast]

33 minutes ago, bean5302 said:

Julien, Martin, Farmer, Castro, Prato. They can all play 2B so 2B remains the lowest area of concern for the Twins.

None of them have been available to play there except Julien & now Farmer again. Unfortunately with Satana at 1B they aren't moving Julien to 1B & have Farmer full-time at 2B. That has been my point. If they are open to have Martin at 2B & move Julien to 1B I'd be 100% behind that. But IMO that'd weaken us in the OF.

[RpR]

1 minute ago, bean5302 said:

Martin was one of the best 2B in the league last year.

Then standards are very low; he was only slightly better than CF.

[Craig Arko]

24 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

That is assuming there are no other position player injuries in the meantime. Very likely that someone else is injured and on the IL when Lewis is ready to return.

Sad but true.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

9 minutes ago, RpR said:

Then standards are very low; he was only slightly better than CF.

Fielding percentage is a terrible measure of defense. 

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

27 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

As much as I want Margot to be Margone, my math says with his 10M salary in 2024, 2M 2025 buyout minus the 4M the Dodgers sent the Twins, means the Twins would be eating 8M. Not only does that insanely make him the most expensive player on this list, but the most expensive acquisition this offseason.

With their self imposed budget constraints I have no idea how this lunacy occurred, but I'd guess his salary actually makes him the LEAST likely to be DFA'd.

These low-end veteran acquisitions kill this club every year. How long before they finally learn from these follies?

I'm almost certainly missing something in the salary breakdown, but I'm reading the Rays are paying $2M this season and are on the hook for the $2M buyout next year. So, with the $4M the Dodgers sent over Margot looks like a $4M player to me. 

[RpR]

7 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

Fielding percentage is a terrible measure of defense. 

To you.

I would bet a lot of money they are the reason Margo does not play Center Field.

His numbers dropped to a nasty degree from 2021 to 2022 to 2023.

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

I don't think they would move on from Castro - even if / when Buxton and Lewis get back, we're not talking about the most durable players. You need an insurance policy and Castro's as good as you're going to find.

Thielbar, my personal opinion is they 'should' move on and let Funderburk get the spot. But, I can't see it happening. He has Rocco's trust, right or wrong, and he's a big part of the clubhouse.

Farmer, see Castro and Thielbar. He's an insurance policy and even when struggling to produce, is probably the team's best leader next to Correa.

Santana - possibly. Especially with Miranda's emergence. You could have Miranda and AK at first base and Santana has little to no value at that point. But if the front office kept trotting Gallo out last year for as long as they did, I don't think they're going to dump Santana anytime soon.

Jackson - yes, please. And bring Alacala back.

Margot - yes, please. Hasn't worked out and isn't necessarily needed even with Buxton headed to the IL.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

36 minutes ago, RpR said:

To you.

I would bet a lot of money they are the reason Margo does not play Center Field.

His numbers dropped to a nasty degree from 2021 to 2022 to 2023.

To anyone who seriously tries to quantify defense. You know if your glove doesn't touch the ball it doesn't count as an error, right?

And Margot's fielding pct didn't really change that much from 2020-2023? 

2020 - .979 (.979 in CF)

2021 - .985 (.983 in CF)

2022 - .986 (1.000 in CF)

2023 - .983 (.971 in CF)

I guarantee that the Twins do not use fielding percentage in any way when evaluating players.

Fielding percentage would have you believe that Michael A Taylor was a worse CF than Jack Suwinski last year. Adam Duvall had a 1.000 fielding percentage in centerfield last year. 

[bean5302]

52 minutes ago, RpR said:

Then standards are very low; he was only slightly better than CF.

Polanco (1x AS), Altuve (8x AS, GG, MVP) and Torres (2x AS) were all at .975 last year. A fielding percentage of .975 at 2B is fine if the player has range, and Martin does. The "low bar" is the entire International AAA League.

[arby58]

4 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

Trading Polanco limited our options because basically Julien is stuck at 2B.

Speaking of trading Polanco - Jorge is currently hitting .181, has an OPS+ OF 83, and a WAR of -0.2. I wonder if the Seattle discussion board commentators are complaining about the trade?

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

I'm almost certainly missing something in the salary breakdown, but I'm reading the Rays are paying $2M this season and are on the hook for the $2M buyout next year. So, with the $4M the Dodgers sent over Margot looks like a $4M player to me. 

I don't think the Twins are getting the Rays 4M and another 4M from the Dodgers. 

The players don't get paid up front, they get paychecks as the season goes along. Margot is still owed 12M this year and next, the only part of his tab that's been paid is the month he's owed this year. The Twins are basically holding the funds from the Dodgers in escrow, I think it would have been reported had they actually gotten 8M from the Dodgers.

[Rosterman]

Always look at those that MAY NOT be back in 2025. Jackson, I believe, has a second-year option (for some reason). The Twins, I'm sure, would love to move Vasquez, too.

Is Paddack safe?

Kepler will be gone, so is mid-season tradebait. 

The Twins can also think about the need to keep Topa or Staumont, both on major league contracts.

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, Seth Stohs said:

10-game winning streak and we're talking about getting rid of guys, eh?

Jackson could be this year's Jharel Cotton because of the guaranteed contract. He could likely be sent down, clear waivers and get outrighted several times throughout the season as needed. 

Margot's fine in the corners. Can hit lefties. But yeah, he's susceptible if there are roster crunches. 

well, this is the difference between actually running a franchise and thinking about it like a fantasy club, right? Fantasy owners can be as cutthroat as they want with no long-term consequences for player acquisition. There's always a pool of players on the fringes to choose from to churn the back end of your roster to try to make marginal gains or catch someone for a few hot weeks and move on. Doesn't work that way IRL.

Notably, Vazquez wasn't brought up here (mostly because with another year on his deal, no one realistically sees a way to move on from him), but he's so far managing to be even worse at the plate than last season and making it a 3-way race for "worst hitter" on the Twins between him, Farmer, and Margot. But at least the defense has been very good so far.

It'll be interesting to see what happens if everyone is healthy when Lewis is ready to come back and if Miranda continues to hit. That's probably the first point where there could be a little crunch on the position player side. And if Margot keeps hitting LHP reasonably well, I doubt they move on from him.

It would be interesting to see if Jackson would get through waivers. He's been...fine? he looks like a lot of middle relievers, I think someone else might take him if we tried that dance.

[Doctor Gast]

20 minutes ago, arby58 said:

Speaking of trading Polanco - Jorge is currently hitting .181, has an OPS+ OF 83, and a WAR of -0.2. I wonder if the Seattle discussion board commentators are complaining about the trade?

They have complained about the lack of offense overall. But in the pitching duel with the best team in baseball (Braves) Polanco was a big reason they won the series just now through clutch hitting. Keeping SEA in 1st place over TX & HOU. It seems like he's just starting to heat up to help SEA get to & advance in the postseason.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

29 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

I don't think the Twins are getting the Rays 4M and another 4M from the Dodgers. 

The players don't get paid up front, they get paychecks as the season goes along. Margot is still owed 12M this year and next, the only part of his tab that's been paid is the month he's owed this year. The Twins are basically holding the funds from the Dodgers in escrow, I think it would have been reported had they actually gotten 8M from the Dodgers.

I can't verify the accuracy of Spotrac, but they lay out the situation as though the Rays have retained $2M of his salary this season, the Dodgers retained an additional $4M and the Rays are on the hook for the $2M buyout next season if the mutual option is not exercised.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/18318/manuel-margot

[arby58]

36 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

 Polanco was a big reason they won the series just now through clutch hitting. Keeping SEA in 1st place over TX & HOU. It seems like he's just starting to heat up to help SEA get to & advance in the postseason.

Are you by chance related to Jorge?

Just using OPS, Polanco's high water mark for the year so far was .694 on April 15th. Since then, game by game, it pretty much steadily declined: .681, .643, .634, .626, .612, .612, .621, .594, .588, .582, .579, .577 on April 29. Yes, he had a HR the next game, to jump it up to .604, and after his most recent game it is .613 - but this trend line is hardly what I would call 'starting to heat up' (unless you think a two game heater is statistically significant).

[RpR]

1 hour ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

To anyone who seriously tries to quantify defense. You know if your glove doesn't touch the ball it doesn't count as an error, right?

And Margot's fielding pct didn't really change that much from 2020-2023? 

2020 - .979 (.979 in CF)

2021 - .985 (.983 in CF)

2022 - .986 (1.000 in CF)

2023 - .983 (.971 in CF)

I guarantee that the Twins do not use fielding percentage in any way when evaluating players.

Fielding percentage would have you believe that Michael A Taylor was a worse CF than Jack Suwinski last year. Adam Duvall had a 1.000 fielding percentage in centerfield last year. 

Percentage from number of games in a position and that changed a lot.

21 in '20, 24 in '21, 18 in '22, 55 in '23

[nicksaviking]

49 minutes ago, CCHOF5yearstoolate said:

I can't verify the accuracy of Spotrac, but they lay out the situation as though the Rays have retained $2M of his salary this season, the Dodgers retained an additional $4M and the Rays are on the hook for the $2M buyout next season if the mutual option is not exercised.

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/_/id/18318/manuel-margot

If so, it should make him an easy cut then.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

41 minutes ago, RpR said:

Percentage from number of games in a position and that changed a lot.

21 in '20, 24 in '21, 18 in '22, 55 in '23

Ok so he played a bunch more games in '23 and wasn't all that much worse than he was in '20. His '22 seems amazing but he didn't play that many games there. This is the problem with looking at fielding percentage.

Again, among qualified CF in 2023 Michael A Taylor was 11th best out of 16. It's a bad metric unless a guy has like a .900 fielding pct and by that point you can just use your eye test to tell he's a bad fielder.