Failure to Launch: Twins Bats Yet to Achieve Liftoff

[Hunter McCall]

After hitting an American League-best 233 home runs in 2023, the Minnesota Twins have struggled with the long ball through the first week of 2024. What do the numbers tell us about their lack of power?

Image courtesy of © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports

In some ways, the 2023 Minnesota Twins were among the most polarizing Twins squads in recent memory. On one hand, the team led the American League in home runs, but on the other, they struck out 1,654 times, more than any other team in major-league history. They embodied the “all-or-nothing” approach, and it paid off, as the team began to heat up late in the summer and into the fall. Although we’re only a handful of games into the season, do the 2024 batted-ball numbers infer a potential shift in team approach, or has the offense just been bad?

The “launch angle revolution” is a recent trend that suggests hitting the ball with an optimal launch angle between 15 and 35 degrees results in more home runs. Since this discovery, teams and players have been adjusting and tweaking swings to produce more long balls. The 2023 Twins ranked fourth in MLB in average launch angle, at 14 degrees. This directly correlates with the team’s success in hitting home runs, and helps explain why the 2024 Twins have sputtered in the category thus far.

Currently, the Twins rank second-to-last in MLB in average launch angle, at just 8.6 degrees. They're dead last with two homers, failing to hit one for more than four full games' worth of time between Royce Lewis's first-inning dinger on Opening Day and Ryan Jeffers's telling blow late in Wednesday's tilt in Milwaukee. No other team has fewer than four home runs on the young season. Five clubs are already in double digits.

The interesting thing about these numbers is that the Twins, so far, haven’t shown any positive tradeoff to the low launch angle. While they rank sixth-lowest in the league in total strikeouts, they rank second-to-last in plate appearances, meaning they have had fewer opportunities to strike out. On a rate basis, they fall in the middle of the pack, even with contact-happy Manuel Margot added to the mix and guys like Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo gone. I'm not sold that this is a matter of intentional trading of lift for contact.

Ryan Jeffers and Willi Castro are the most noticeable players contributing to the team's drop in launch angle. Throughout his relatively young MLB career, Jeffers has hovered right in the sweet spot between 15 and 20 degrees, which has led to his success at the plate. That's changed dramatically this year, though obviously, he finally got the bottom half of a ball on Wednesday. Before that swing, Jeffers had put all of his batted balls on the ground for the season.

Castro had a career year in 2023, which solidified his role with the team for 2024. He’s had a rough go at the plate to begin the season, though, with a .425 OPS through his first 20 plate appearances. Like Jeffers, Castro has also shown a dramatic drop in launch angle this year, which currently sits at -14 degrees, down from 15.1 degrees in 2023. Unlike Jeffers, Castro does run well, so this could indicate a “stay on top of the ball” approach that he is still adjusting to early in the year.

It's too early to make any bold assumptions about a complete overhaul in the Twins’ approach at the plate, but when a team goes from near the top of the league in launch angle to the very bottom, it’s worth noting. The 2023 Twins struggled to produce much of anything offensively early in the year as well, so while it’s far too early to press the panic button on the 2024 offense, it is something to keep an eye on. The Twins have enough power in their lineup to contribute the early struggles to another slow start, but if the trend continues over the opening month, it could indicate a shift in approach at the plate.

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Slow start, or early signs of a new approach implementation? What are your thoughts? Let me know in the comments! Go, Twins!

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[mikelink45]

I will always struggle with launch angle, exit velocity and distance traveled.  I am much more of just hit the ball.  I think this year's team will be fine and we are measuring and judging too soon.  The real problem is that we do not have Lewis in the lineup.

[MMMordabito]

[Doctor Gast]

Quote

On one hand, the team led the American League in home runs, but on the other, they struck out 1,654 times, more than any other team in major-league history. They embodied the “all-or-nothing” approach, and it paid off, as the team began to heat up late in the summer and into the fall.

IMO the better indicator of the success of this team due to hitting is not the "all-or-nothing" approach that this FO is advocating because this approach was adopted since the '19 "juiced ball" & a good part of that time this offense stunk. The offense stunk in '23 until Royce Lewis came up who sparked this offense until he went down after 2 days into '24. The presence of Lewis is directly correlated to the success of this offense. Not the "all-or-nothing" approach which more often strikeout in clutch situations. 

I think a big reason that the launch angle is so low & our offense is so poor this season is because our main contact hitters Santana, Margot & Martin are hitting poorly. I'm confident that when Martin is adjusted to MLB; Santana & Margot problems are worked out; Buxton & Correa really get going & the return of Lewis this offense will be awesome, in spite of the "all-or-nothing" approach.

I'm not against launch angles, I'm against approaches whether it is pushing hitters to hit for contact on every pitch or to hit HRs. Baseball is a game of adjusting when we are set in one approach we can't maximize on each pitch. Also we need to develop each hitter to better them whether they are a slugger or more of a contact hitter.

[Karbo]

5 games in is way too early to discuss trends like this. The way too early trend I'm seeing is a lack of patience at the plate. Until the 2nd half of yesterdays game it seemed like all the boys were in hurry to get the game over, not wanting to work the counts. 

[TwinsDr2021]

8 minutes ago, Doctor Gast said:

 

I think a big reason that the launch angle is so low & our offense is so poor this season is because our main contact hitters Santana, Margot & Martin are hitting poorly. I'm confident that when Martin is adjusted to MLB

Martin has 3 at bats so I don't think he plays in the good or bad of the team so far. The problem is farmer has 10 at bats already (0 hits), Castro is 2/16, Kepler is 1/13, Jeffers is 2/15, and Julien is 2/15, and somehow Wallner only has 7 at bats with 1 hit and 5 K's. It is too early to start worrying and the Twins are above .500, but would like to see at least a couple of these guys or more start to heat it up at home.

[jimbo92107]

I wonder if the launch angle problem is linked to pitchers throwing stuff that usually breaks downward. If Batter A swings to hit flat, then pitches that duck down late will be topped, turning into a lot of ground ball outs. Conversely, if Batter B swings intentionally from low to high, then a certain percentage of those ducking pitches will either be driven to the fences or over the fence. Some of those pitches will still be ground balls, but fewer than Batter A.

Right now the Twins are topping too many balls. Maybe it's all part of the cat and mouse game. If a pitcher comes in throwing a lot of sinking stuff, manager should tell his guys to switch to an uppercut swing. Good hitters should be able to do either kind of swing, right?

[CRF]

It's way too early to panic. They were the exact same way thru a decent portion of last season too. Give them a little time to find the groove. If we're still doing this on August 1st, then I'd go low on the Defcon scale. 

[Patzky]

Joey Gallo goes deep. Mr April. 

 

Yeah there's been something different about the team's hitting, I couldn't put my finger on it but you nailed it.. grounded out grounded out grounded out repeatedly in KC.

[JD-TWINS]

The GOOD news is Buxton - Correa - Kirilloff are healthy and doing their job at a good level through 5 games. Buxton got a DH start and went 2-5 dispelling the “he can’t hit as a DH” theory (it’s one game I know - he was hurt all last year while being DH). 75-80% of games with him healthy & in the line-up is huge.

Jeffers - Kepler - Farmer - Castro will all come around. Wallner may need a break in St. Paul to “re-set” at some point.

Larnach - Lee being hurt isn’t helping our current need for depth on the 26-man.

Santana from the left side is tough to watch - particularly in the middle of the line-up. Yesterday Kirilloff could have been at 1B with Wallner in LF - not a good sign when Wallner is sitting in the 5th game.

[Doctor Gast]

I agree with you Hunter that Castro should work on his launch angle & get back to last season's success.  Jeffers #s weren't that great in '21 & '22. Jeffers worked on his swing in '23 & had some success, I'm curious about what his average launch angle was in '23 compared to '21 & '22.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

After five whole games there is an incredible amount of noise in the data.  IF they continue doing the same thing after a month or two, some tentative conclusions can be made.  However, until then, the idle speculation is just that. . . . Idle speculation.  Certainly all is not lost (or won) at this point.  Let them play some ball and then we’ll see how it goes.

[Doctor Gast]

Quote

Slow start, or early signs of a new approach implementation? 

A very interesting question. I doubt that they are ditching the "all-or-nothing" approach (unfortunately) but they might be dialing back on it, to curb the SOs and players like Castro are overcompensating and eventually get back to hitting better. Which in this case is very encouraging to me. 

Jeffers has stated after last night's game, that he'd made a minor adjustment. Hopefully, he'll continue to rake.

[RpR]

3 hours ago, Patzky said:

Joey Gallo goes deep. Mr April.

As far as launch angle goes, last year, Joey seemed to try to set altitude records on some of his home runs; 400 feet high and barely clearing the fence.😆

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

Here's the Twins lineup from 4/4/2023. Far to early to come to any kind of conclusion. 

 

[farmerguychris]

Someone else here mentioned that our swings are often all or nothing and that we seem to be hitting grounder, grounder, grounder.  I love the new analytics kind of baseball, but I've often wondered that while our current leaders do make decisions on these analytics that other teams are also doing the same thing, but doing a better job of using their analytics to adjust to our team's analytical decisions?

Example - they know we're only going to try to hit with good launch angles and high exit velocity.  Therefore - only give us pitches that are the hardest to hit with good launch angles or high exit velocity.

That's how I'd pitch us.

[JD-TWINS]

Kirilloff seems to have his launch angle working!!

Just tripled off the wall in CF v. Guardians - double/triple Wednesday - flew out twice to the Track in another game - batting near .500……..appears healthy!!

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Martin has 3 at bats so I don't think he plays in the good or bad of the team so far. The problem is farmer has 10 at bats already (0 hits), Castro is 2/16, Kepler is 1/13, Jeffers is 2/15, and Julien is 2/15, and somehow Wallner only has 7 at bats with 1 hit and 5 K's. It is too early to start worrying and the Twins are above .500, but would like to see at least a couple of these guys or more start to heat it up at home.

Julien struck out looking 42% of his high strike out rate last year - 6th most in baseball. Two AB’s in, on Opening Day at Target, he’s struck out looking twice………bases loaded with 2 outs the second time. Good Pitcher - I get it but it’s a bad habit. He needs to be more aggressive to protect the plate with two strikes - PERIOD. Don’t care about his high walk rate and low chase % - one can’t bat lead-off and strike out looking repeatedly. 

[JD-TWINS]

Kepler is on pace to thrill us with 5 hits in his first 100 AB’s………..the epitome of “Failure to launch!” Come on MAX!!

[RpR]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Kirilloff seems to have his launch angle working!!

Just tripled off the wall in CF v. Guardians - double/triple Wednesday - flew out twice to the Track in another game - batting near .500……..appears healthy!!

Right now, he a Correa are the only bright spots on the team.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Kepler is on pace to thrill us with 5 hits in his first 100 AB’s………..the epitome of “Failure to launch!” Come on MAX!!

Max and most of the team were chasing crap today; they gave Julien one down the pipe and he took advantage.