Bailey Ober's Improved Pitch Mix Can Make Him a Playoff-Caliber Starter

[Cody Christie]

The Minnesota Twins’ front office attempted to add a playoff-caliber starter this offseason, to no avail. Enter Bailey Ober, and a new pitch mix that might push him to the top of the starting rotation.

Image courtesy of William Parmeter

Losing Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda from the starting rotation would be a tough pill to swallow for any organization. Gray was the AL Cy Young runner-up, and Maeda pitched well down the stretch leading into the playoffs. Minnesota’s front office talked about adding a starting pitcher earlier in the offseason, but with the team’s self-imposed payroll cut, that would have been a tricky proposition. Free agent options were too expensive, and trading for a frontline starting pitcher often requires top prospects to be included in the deal. For those reasons, the Twins will rely on internal starting pitching options to take the next step in 2024. 

Spring training is a time for pitchers to work on things, to prepare for the upcoming season. Some hurlers have worked on refining specific pitches throughout the winter and spring training games, which are the first opportunity for fans to see these offerings. Multiple Twins pitchers have unveiled new pitches this spring, but Bailey Ober’s new pitch mix might be something that can elevate him from a mid-rotation arm to a playoff-caliber starter. 

During the 2023 season, Ober used a four-pitch mix, which included a four-seam fastball, changeup, slider/sweeper, and curveball. Throughout his big-league career, he has relied less on his fastball, with a 12.3% usage drop from 2021 to 2023. His changeup usage has increased in each of his first three seasons, including being his second most-used pitch last season (28%).

Bailey Ober, 2023 Pitch Break Chart

Last season, he saw a 5% increase in his Whiff% with his fastball, which will help set up his other offspeed offerings. Many believed he needed one more pitch, a harder breaking ball that could round out his pitch mix. 

Multiple Twins pitchers have been showcasing what is viewed as a gyro slider during spring training games. Last season, Ober's slider averaged 81.0 mph; his new version of the pitch has an increased velocity of 86.0 mph, with more glove-side break. Following one of his spring appearances, he told reporters, “Cutter, slider, whatever you want to call it. Something that’s hard and goes left.” Ober has also increased his release height while keeping his extension the same. These changes have helped him to add more ride to his fastball while increasing its velocity. His pitch mix now includes five pitches, with a four-seamer, gyro slider (marked below as a cutter), sweeper, curveball, and changeup.

Bailey Ober, 2024 Pitch Break Chart

His Stuff+ on his spring offerings has also seen some substantial increases. His fastball ranked slightly below average last season with a 94 Stuff+, but he has increased that to a 110 Stuff+ in his start on March 2. According to Stuff+, his slider was his best pitch last season, at 99. His tweaks to that pitch have moved it to 102. During spring training, there are small sample sizes to consider with pitchers, but the changes to his pitch mix continue to be encouraging. 

Earlier in spring training, I discussed the possibility of Ober being an extension candidate for the Twins. His price will likely increase throughout the 2024 season as he approaches free agency and his performance improves. The Twins need their young pitchers to take the next step if they want to win the division and make a deeper playoff run this season. 

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Will Ober be able to translate his improved performance into the regular season? Can he be a playoff-caliber starter that the team needs? Leave a comment to start the discussion.

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[DJL44]

Bryce Harper was impressed.

Bryce Harper praises Bailey Ober: 'Good luck to everyone in the Central' - Sports Illustrated Minnesota Twins News, Analysis and More

[Fatbat]

Great write up!! If Ober is durable  and brings his game to a higher level in ‘24, no one will want to play us in October. 

[TwinsDr2021]

Ober just needs to stay healthy and do what he has been doing, if he improves on that, awesome.

[JD-TWINS]

He’s the overlooked guy!! A really solid starter - Maeda was our Ace in ‘20 with similar velocity. With a 4-5 pitch mix Ober could win 15 this year with a slightly better offense & a dominant Pen.

Career ERA of 3.63…….144 innings in ‘23 & ERA of 3.43. 5:1 career strikeout to walk ratio…..9 K’s per 9 innings……….threw 165 innings last year if we include his AAA innings. 26 starts in the Show with a slow start & a break in August/Sept. in St. Paul.

[bean5302]

Bailey Ober will be 29 this year, basically the same age as Dylan Bundy was for the Twins a couple years ago... Ober's not a prospect and expecting a major leap in his effectiveness feels far-fetched, but there does seem to be the potential for him to reach his ceiling and stabilize as a back-end #3, high 3's ERA kind of guy worthy of being counted on as a playoff starter.

I like the Ober still seems really hungry, and I suspect he has a chip on his shoulder from last year's treatment by the club, but adjustments he makes will be adjusted to by MLB hitters as well.

[Doctor Gast]

Ober is very encouraging, but to over take Lopez as top of the rotation is pretty lofty. While he looks great now we'll have to see if he can sustain that performance throughout the season to become that postseason #2 SP. I'd like the Twins to save their money & extend Ober.

[Parfigliano]

With his new pitch/mix by midyear he will be known as Ober-Wan Kenobi.

[CCHOF5yearstoolate]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Bailey Ober will be 29 this year, basically the same age as Dylan Bundy was for the Twins a couple years ago... Ober's not a prospect and expecting a major leap in his effectiveness feels far-fetched, but there does seem to be the potential for him to reach his ceiling and stabilize as a back-end #3, high 3's ERA kind of guy worthy of being counted on as a playoff starter.

I like the Ober still seems really hungry, and I suspect he has a chip on his shoulder from last year's treatment by the club, but adjustments he makes will be adjusted to by MLB hitters as well.

Adding 2 mph and 2 inches of vertical break to his fastball is a major leap in effectiveness.

He's going from a Kyle Gibson four seamer to a Jose Urquidy/Kutter Crawford four seam.

 

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, bean5302 said:

Bailey Ober will be 29 this year, basically the same age as Dylan Bundy was for the Twins a couple years ago... Ober's not a prospect and expecting a major leap in his effectiveness feels far-fetched, but there does seem to be the potential for him to reach his ceiling and stabilize as a back-end #3, high 3's ERA kind of guy worthy of being counted on as a playoff starter.

I like the Ober still seems really hungry, and I suspect he has a chip on his shoulder from last year's treatment by the club, but adjustments he makes will be adjusted to by MLB hitters as well.

Age and Prospect is probably tied together in regards to what is considered the typical athletic peak. I've read articles stating that age 27 has been identified theorized as the athletic apex. I've also read articles that 27 is when Rock musicians die but Keith Richards is still with us so I'm careful to not one size fits all.  

However... In regards to developing a new effective pitch, improving a pitch, patching a hole in your swing... finding something that makes you better.

IMO... This type of improvement can happen at any age, it doesn't have much to do with athletic ability, probably more to do with mechanics and it can change a player for the better immediately. Kind of like being handed a power drill and not needing an awl anymore. 

I won't make any claims that this is what is happening with Ober but I wouldn't use age 29 to doubt. He can get a lot better at age 29... unfortunately at age 29 his arm will fall off shortly after. 😄  

[Karbo]

My only concern with Ober is health. If he stays healthy again this season, I can envision him as a solid #2.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

But we should be worried we don't have a #2 . . . . . . . .    This is tongue and cheek.  We just need health in our starters and this has the potential to be just as strong or even slightly better than last year.   

[sweetmusicviola16]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Age and Prospect is probably tied together in regards to what is considered the typical athletic peak. I've read articles stating that age 27 has been identified theorized as the athletic apex. I've also read articles that 27 is when Rock musicians die but Keith Richards is still with us so I'm careful to not one size fits all.  

However... In regards to developing a new effective pitch, improving a pitch, patching a hole in your swing... finding something that makes you better.

IMO... This type of improvement can happen at any age, it doesn't have much to do with athletic ability, probably more to do with mechanics and it can change a player for the better immediately. Kind of like being handed a power drill and not needing an awl anymore. 

I won't make any claims that this is what is happening with Ober but I wouldn't use age 29 to doubt. He can get a lot better at age 29... unfortunately at age 29 his arm will fall off shortly after. 😄  

Mick Jagger is still with us too, and just a few short years ago was still fathering kids with his much younger wives. He now has 8 kids, I'd say his pitches have been pretty effective too.

[Riverbrian]

8 minutes ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

Mick Jagger is still with us too, and just a few short years ago was still fathering kids with his much younger wives. He now has 8 kids, I'd say his pitches have been pretty effective too.

Exactly

Mick was drowned, washed up, left for dead, and crowned with a spike right through his head.

Born in 1943 so he was 25 when all that happened to him.

By the time he was 27... Wild Horses couldn't drag him away.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

3 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

Age and Prospect is probably tied together in regards to what is considered the typical athletic peak. I've read articles stating that age 27 has been identified theorized as the athletic apex. I've also read articles that 27 is when Rock musicians die but Keith Richards is still with us so I'm careful to not one size fits all.  

However... In regards to developing a new effective pitch, improving a pitch, patching a hole in your swing... finding something that makes you better.

IMO... This type of improvement can happen at any age, it doesn't have much to do with athletic ability, probably more to do with mechanics and it can change a player for the better immediately. Kind of like being handed a power drill and not needing an awl anymore. 

I won't make any claims that this is what is happening with Ober but I wouldn't use age 29 to doubt. He can get a lot better at age 29... unfortunately at age 29 his arm will fall off shortly after. 😄  

It has also been said that young pitchers are throwers and old pitchers are pitchers.  With age often comes wisdom, or so I have been said to believe.  While he may no longer be what is considered the athletic apex (which I'm certain varies from person to person), he certainly hasn't been worn out by too many innings and has plenty of physical ability, plus he's a "tall pitcher" and they take a little longer to develop.  Randy Johnson went from "good" to "awesome" at age 29, so there is nothing to prevent Ober from going from "possibly good" to "very good" at a similar age.  Johnson is a hall of famer and Ober won't be, but Ober could definitely have a lesser version of that kind of development.  Johnson later proceeded to go from "awesome" to "ridiculous" at age 35, so chronological age isn't the only determiner of success. 

[Riverbrian]

14 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

It has also been said that young pitchers are throwers and old pitchers are pitchers.  With age often comes wisdom, or so I have been said to believe.  While he may no longer be what is considered the athletic apex (which I'm certain varies from person to person), he certainly hasn't been worn out by too many innings and has plenty of physical ability, plus he's a "tall pitcher" and they take a little longer to develop.  Randy Johnson went from "good" to "awesome" at age 29, so there is nothing to prevent Ober from going from "possibly good" to "very good" at a similar age.  Johnson is a hall of famer and Ober won't be, but Ober could definitely have a lesser version of that kind of development.  Johnson later proceeded to go from "awesome" to "ridiculous" at age 35, so chronological age isn't the only determiner of success. 

I choose to optimistic... If Randy Johnson can do it at age 29... so can Bailey Ober!!! 😉

BTW... You quoted Oscar Wilde "With Age comes wisdom...".

Keep in mind that Oscar Wilde was 125 years old when he said that very thing while trying to convince someone that his cat was up in that tree over there. 

It was Emo Phillips who said "I used to think that the brain was the most wonderful organ in my body but then I realized who was telling me that". 

[Schmoeman5]

49 minutes ago, Riverbrian said:

Exactly

Mick was drowned, washed up, left for dead, and crowned with a spike right through his head.

Born in 1943 so he was 25 when all that happened to him.

By the time he was 27... Wild Horses couldn't drag him away.  

He blew some 50A fuses along the way too. Ouch

[DJL44]

5 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

I'd like the Twins to save their money & extend Ober.

The Twins have Ober for the next 4 seasons, ages 28-31. That's pretty much ideal for a pitcher. Next season is his first arbitration year.  That will be a good time to discuss a 3 year deal with an expensive team option for 2028.

[Riverbrian]

1 minute ago, DJL44 said:

The Twins have Ober for the next 4 seasons, ages 28-31. That's pretty much ideal for a pitcher. Next season is his first arbitration year.  That will be a good time to discuss a 3 year deal with an expensive team option for 2028.

I'm going to draft Ober in my fantasy baseball draft. 

Probably doom him by doing just that.  

[Squirrel]

2 hours ago, Riverbrian said:

I'm going to draft Ober in my fantasy baseball draft. 

Probably doom him by doing just that.  

Then don’t do that. Doom another team’s pitchers 

[Aerodeliria]

We will see. Mark me as skeptical, but if his fastball has better movement, that will be the major step forward. I saw him pitch in the playoffs and was really not impressed by his fastball in particular. The Astros were sitting on his fastball and making very good contact. I would still rank him as a distanct 3rd in the rotation at this moment in time. (It sure would be nice to have Maeda in Twin Stripes, but those are just sour grapes I suppose.)

[gman]

I would take a Lopez #1  and Ober/Ryan as a #2/2 tie. Hopefully by September we have at least 3 pitchers as playoff quality against any team.