Kirilloff as Trade Bait

[stringer bell]

I still believe in AK’s hit tool as superior to almost everyone on the team. He’s only 26 and has endured about as many injuries as Lewis and hasn’t been able to stay on the field for a whole season.

He’s shown enough flashes to give everyone hope and encouragement but not enough to be trusted.

He's taking BP with the other players, so he has apparently dodged a severe injury of the shoulder. It appears he will be ready to play in the spring training games, certainly a step forward from last year.

Since he was a prospect, he’s been regarded as a better fit at first base, but he’s played a fair amount of outfield. With Santana and his defensive rep on the squad, AK might end up with some significant time in the outfield and DH.

I know by all measures and metrics, that Kirilloff graded poorly at first base last year. I still maintain that he has the tools to be an above average defensive first sacker. I remember watching him at ST the year COVID hit and he looked comfortable and smooth at first. He has the advantage of being left handed and over six feet and seemed very capable scooping low throws. Perhaps not having a regular off-season and rehabbing from injury has cost his development defensively.

If Santana takes at-bats away from him versus right handed pitching (as I fear he will), Kirilloff can get some of those ABs back by being a better hitter than Wallner.

I think it is foolish to consider trading a guy like Kirilloff at this point, but a few months or certainly a year from now, that situation could be completely changed. 

[SaberNerd]

If the right deal is there, I'd definitely be willing to move him.  I doubt that we are able to get a pitcher that is better than Ryan/Ober or one who has significant control who will be better than Varland/DeSclafini.

 

Long term, 5 spots in the infield + DH.  I think both Kirilloff and Julien have enough offensive upside to provide value at 1B/DH, so I wouldn't trade AK unless we get a legitimate long-term option.

[Doctor Gast]

We can pick up another DeSclavani for Kiriloff. Is that what we want? I sure don't! IMO he will get beyond his injuries this year, he'll have the season we expect from him, he just needs that opportunity. Correa/ Lewis/ Lee will be our INF that's easy to see, but unless the sky falls there's no need to rush Lee up in an easy Central Division. Let him sit in AAA for a while. Just let's wait & see what shakes out.

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, RpR said:

Nope

 

Nope is your most complete comment yet. Stream of consciousness, so I understand what you are saying, but I'm pretty sure you left a ton of others baffled. 

Let me tell you though .... Max Kepler is in his last year with the Twins. It has nothing to do with money or his play.

[LA Vikes Fan]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

We can pick up another DeSclavani for Kiriloff. Is that what we want? I sure don't! IMO he will get beyond his injuries this year, he'll have the season we expect from him, he just needs that opportunity. Correa/ Lewis/ Lee will be our INF that's easy to see, but unless the sky falls there's no need to rush Lee up in an easy Central Division. Let him sit in AAA for a while. Just let's wait & see what shakes out.

I agree. Trading Kirilloff makes sense as part of a package for Jesus Lazardo or somebody of that talent, age range, and potential. It would make no sense to trade him for another DeSclafini or similar back end veteran starter. And it would make even less sense to trade him for prospects to "open up " a spot for Brooks Lee, a guy with great potential but who hasn't even conquered AAA yet. I don't think Kirilloff is enough to get us a quality youngish starter with control and I don't think the FO will want to add a lot of talent in a package with him. I think he stays with the team and I think he is the primary 1B, with Santana getting at bats against left-handed starters, some DH time, and some late inning defensive replacement time. As I've said many times before, this is the year where you play Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, and Wallner everyday, play Jeffers 60% of the time, pitch Ryan and Ober every fifth day, and get Varland at least 20 starts.. You need to see if those guys can be the core going forward. This is the year to find that out because the Tigers, Royals, and Guardians are getting better but still are a ways off. This is the year you can give away a few games to useful inexperience and still win the division. That may not be true again starting next year. 

 

 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

16 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree. Trading Kirilloff makes sense as part of a package for Jesus Lazardo or somebody of that talent, age range, and potential. It would make no sense to trade him for another DeSclafini or similar back end veteran starter. And it would make even less sense to trade him for prospects to "open up " a spot for Brooks Lee, a guy with great potential but who hasn't even conquered AAA yet. I don't think Kirilloff is enough to get us a quality youngish starter with control and I don't think the FO will want to add a lot of talent in a package with him. I think he stays with the team and I think he is the primary 1B, with Santana getting at bats against left-handed starters, some DH time, and some late inning defensive replacement time. As I've said many times before, this is the year where you play Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, and Wallner everyday, play Jeffers 60% of the time, pitch Ryan and Ober every fifth day, and get Varland at least 20 starts.. You need to see if those guys can be the core going forward. This is the year to find that out because the Tigers, Royals, and Guardians are getting better but still are a ways off. This is the year you can give away a few games to useful inexperience and still win the division. That may not be true again starting next year. 

 

 

I do wonder what a package of Kirilloff, Gonzalez, one of the young AA pitchers, and a random reliever from our current crop might bring from someone.  I don't think it makes sense to dream on Kirby or Luzardo, but there are probably others out there a little under the radar.  It would be sort of the opposite of the Jorge Polanco trade.  

[tony&rodney]

18 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree. Trading Kirilloff makes sense as part of a package for Jesus Lazardo or somebody of that talent, age range, and potential. It would make no sense to trade him for another DeSclafini or similar back end veteran starter. And it would make even less sense to trade him for prospects to "open up " a spot for Brooks Lee, a guy with great potential but who hasn't even conquered AAA yet. I don't think Kirilloff is enough to get us a quality youngish starter with control and I don't think the FO will want to add a lot of talent in a package with him. I think he stays with the team and I think he is the primary 1B, with Santana getting at bats against left-handed starters, some DH time, and some late inning defensive replacement time. As I've said many times before, this is the year where you play Kirilloff, Julien, Lewis, and Wallner everyday, play Jeffers 60% of the time, pitch Ryan and Ober every fifth day, and get Varland at least 20 starts.. You need to see if those guys can be the core going forward. This is the year to find that out because the Tigers, Royals, and Guardians are getting better but still are a ways off. This is the year you can give away a few games to useful inexperience and still win the division. That may not be true again starting next year. 

 

 

This is exactly the way forward for a team to win. 2024 will be a year for answers.

[RpR]

2 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

We can pick up another DeSclavani for Kiriloff. Is that what we want? I sure don't! IMO he will get beyond his injuries this year, he'll have the season we expect from him, he just needs that opportunity. Correa/ Lewis/ Lee will be our INF that's easy to see, but unless the sky falls there's no need to rush Lee up in an easy Central Division. Let him sit in AAA for a while. Just let's wait & see what shakes out.

They have no one to replace him; Wallner simply is no where as good as he is, and they have no one to take Wallner's place in left field.

All the let x, y or z play in the outfield so a, b or c can play in the infield is just silliness; having a proven proffesional like Taylor last year made a huge difference in the Twins results.

The Twins now are on the verge of being a post season regular and wishful thinking about rookies, which dominates this site, will not maintain that level especially with the  rookies experience they have had for the past decade.

That Lewis stays at the promise level he showed is some thing the Twins front office are counting on, while fingers crossed hope that Jeffers fielding skills equal his bat is another.

IF, if the Twins start dumping what is left of the veteran squad, they are going to be also rans again.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, RpR said:

They have no one to replace him; Wallner simply is no where as good as he is, and they have no one to take Wallner's place in left field.

All the let x, y or z play in the outfield so a, b or c can play in the infield is just silliness; having a proven proffesional like Taylor last year made a huge difference in the Twins results.

The Twins now are on the verge of being a post season regular and wishful thinking about rookies, which dominates this site, will not maintain that level especially with the  rookies experience they have had for the past decade.

That Lewis stays at the promise level he showed is some thing the Twins front office are counting on, while fingers crossed hope that Jeffers fielding skills equal his bat is another.

IF, if the Twins start dumping what is left of the veteran squad, they are going to be also rans again.

Good post. Taylor has a good year last season and if he is resigned he may provide some needed experience and depth to the team, particularly because there is always going to be worry about Buxton. I'm not sure that Taylor can replicate he campaign from 2023, but he was well liked and more importantly, effective. 

The Twins will face economics next season and this season should help the front office find who can step forward as expected contributors. I was sorry to see Polanco move on and will be similarly miss Kepler next season. These were the two Twins i enjoyed the most in the last decade. Baseball is tough and new guys move in and prove themselves over time. We can hope a few of the younger guys take positive steps in their careers this year. For now, the leadership and experience of Vazquez, Santana, Farmer, Correa, Buxton, Kepler, DeSclafani, and Thielbar will be important.

[awmonahan]

Trading Kirilloff now is trading low. Start the season, have him play. He needs to play well at the MLB level to recoup value, at this point. Go with it. Brooks Lee is sitting there, if we can trade him (and Julien simply slides from 2nd to 1st to accommodate Lee). If Kirilloff Is healthy and plays well, get good value, or hold him. But, at least wait it out. 

[RpR]

15 minutes ago, awmonahan said:

Trading Kirilloff now is trading low. Start the season, have him play. He needs to play well at the MLB level to recoup value, at this point. Go with it. Brooks Lee is sitting there, if we can trade him (and Julien simply slides from 2nd to 1st to accommodate Lee). If Kirilloff Is healthy and plays well, get good value, or hold him. But, at least wait it out. 

The point is to win now, keep what works and do not use, except in,  pull- in case of an emergencey, those which are a crap-shoot.

Kirilloff is not a good Fielder , any where, which is why Santana is here, let him go like Gordon, some where , where, new atmosphere may re-energize him.

Worse do not become a holding pen stock-yard treating men like cattle.

[DocBauer]

If I had to choose one of Lee, Julien, or Kirilloff, right now, to move in a deal, I guess I'd pick AK. But that would be very grudgingly hard choice as I don't want to move any of them, and my mind might change by mid season.

I'm a big believer in Kirilloff, former tip pick, former top 100 prospect. And I'm not convinced that he is necessarily injury prone. He did need TJ on his throwing arm while in the minors. It probably did Rob him of a little arm strength, but it didn't preclude him from ever being able to throw or hit again. And he reached that tip 100 status post surgery I believe.

His wrist situation wasn't an injury per se, it was a "defect" of sorts. While he was held back early in 2023 for a while to rehab and ramp up, once he was back he was one of the best....if not THE best...hitters on the team for about 2 1/2 months. The dreaded wrist issue seems to have been solved!

Hurting his shoulder...a slight injury according to the doctors...happened while diving to make a play. Unless it happens again, or he suddenly develops a number of other injuries, I'm not going to fall in to the "injury bug" trap. Again, the elbow was years ago and hasn't caused any issues since. The wrist wasn't an injury,  and now appears fine. I can honestly see a lineup scenario where he's the #3 hitter behind Julien and Correa.

I am not in any hurry to move him.

And Santana was brought in...veteran leadership not withstanding...primarily as a RH bat against LHP, a RH PH, a late inning defensive option. The guy hasn't hardly done anything from the left side in years. And I doubt he's going to suddenly find the fountain of youth at 38yo. But he can still be a useful piece of the team puzzle.

 

[sweetmusicviola16]

Kiriloff is an MVP type of hitter. But he does need to stay healthy and on the field. It would be a poor move to deal him when value is low. We are at the point of letting him burn out entirely or reaping the reward of his talent. My vote is to keep him. Unless you get a TOR SP for him, which you would not get today.

[sweetmusicviola16]

6 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

If I had to choose one of Lee, Julien, or Kirilloff, right now, to move in a deal, I guess I'd pick AK. But that would be very grudgingly hard choice as I don't want to move any of them, and my mind might change by mid season.

I'm a big believer in Kirilloff, former tip pick, former top 100 prospect. And I'm not convinced that he is necessarily injury prone. He did need TJ on his throwing arm while in the minors. It probably did Rob him of a little arm strength, but it didn't preclude him from ever being able to throw or hit again. And he reached that tip 100 status post surgery I believe.

His wrist situation wasn't an injury per se, it was a "defect" of sorts. While he was held back early in 2023 for a while to rehab and ramp up, once he was back he was one of the best....if not THE best...hitters on the team for about 2 1/2 months. The dreaded wrist issue seems to have been solved!

Hurting his shoulder...a slight injury according to the doctors...happened while diving to make a play. Unless it happens again, or he suddenly develops a number of other injuries, I'm not going to fall in to the "injury bug" trap. Again, the elbow was years ago and hasn't caused any issues since. The wrist wasn't an injury,  and now appears fine. I can honestly see a lineup scenario where he's the #3 hitter behind Julien and Correa.

I am not in any hurry to move him.

And Santana was brought in...veteran leadership not withstanding...primarily as a RH bat against LHP, a RH PH, a late inning defensive option. The guy hasn't hardly done anything from the left side in years. And I doubt he's going to suddenly find the fountain of youth at 38yo. But he can still be a useful piece of the team puzzle.

 

This is a very good post. Fair, objective and accurate.

Kiriloff is one of the very best hitters on this team. Plain and simple, when healthy. Personally though it would make me gag if Kiriloff were traded for a back of the rotation piece or a filler piece, which is likely AK's present value,  while we carry 38 y/o Santana on the team.

[RpR]

11 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

And Santana was brought in...veteran leadership not withstanding...primarily as a RH bat against LHP, a RH PH, a late inning defensive option. The guy hasn't hardly done anything from the left side in years.

 

Santana 2023

Kirilloff 2023

Defense

Santana

Kirilloff

Sanatan is not here to just fill in; Front Office said they were looking for First Baseman and this is why.

[Jocko87]

He has to be healthy and hit for anything to matter.  If he does, it won't matter where he plays. He'll be a cornerstone player.  Or a very very valuable trade chip.  If not, it won't matter either.

Honestly, I thought when Santana signed it would be natural for AK to play some outfield again.  Part of that thought process is that next year is Waller in right, AK in left and maybe Julien and Miranda at first.  If AK is healthy, his defense will be just fine as a middle of the order bat in left field.

I'm not sold on the Julien to first base deal either.  I don't see anything that indicates he will be an better than AK there.  Wrong handed, short and stone hands aren't a great combo over there.  Most likely he settles in at DH which is why he would be my trade chip.

It's just to easy to add a big bat at first base. They are expensive at all the other spots. 

Miranda and AK will settle the question with their play. 

[stringer bell]

Once more into the breach about Kirilloff's defense: he's 26 years old, principally playing the last defensive position on the defensive spectrum. Like any big leaguer, he has demonstrated he can catch the thrown ball to him and I doubt his range or flexibility is limiting him from being an adequate defensive player. 

Available defensive metrics say he was a poor defender last year, but prior to that there weren't any red flags about his defense at first base, including his two partial seasons with the Twins. I'll say it again, that since he is left handed, he has advantages over right handed first basemen. Perhaps it was his injury that impacted his defense at first base, I've heard mention that his first inning error against Houston in Game 3 of the ALCS was related.

I think there is a good chance that his defense will revert to league average and I doubt 38-year-old Carlos Santana will put up Gold Glove defense. While he has been described as solid at first base, his 11 DRS last year would appear to be an outlier. 

[DocBauer]

3 hours ago, RpR said:

Santana 2023

Kirilloff 2023

Defense

Santana

Kirilloff

Sanatan is not here to just fill in; Front Office said they were looking for First Baseman and this is why.

So the 12 year younger Kirilloff had a 14 point higher OPS+, and had a better AVG, OB%, SLG%, and OPS against RHP...which batters generally see approximately 75% of the time...but Santana should be/is the better option??

And the front office never said they were looking for a starting 1B. 

[terrydactyls]

6 hours ago, DocBauer said:

So the 12 year younger Kirilloff had a 14 point higher OPS+, and had a better AVG, OB%, SLG%, and OPS against RHP...which batters generally see approximately 75% of the time...but Santana should be/is the better option??

And the front office never said they were looking for a starting 1B. 

Does TD allow responses to comments that point out glaring logic errors?  🤩 🤩

[stringer bell]

7 hours ago, DocBauer said:

So the 12 year younger Kirilloff had a 14 point higher OPS+, and had a better AVG, OB%, SLG%, and OPS against RHP...which batters generally see approximately 75% of the time...but Santana should be/is the better option??

And the front office never said they were looking for a starting 1B. 

The front office did say they were looking for 1B help, not the same thing, but related. Bringing in Santana at $5.25M could mean a lot of things. It could just provide a right handed platoon partner, it could mean he will be the regular first baseman or most likely, it is somewhere in between. 

With Santana being a switch hitter and superior fielder, he most likely will not be strictly platooned, with Santana getting a higher share. I don't think the disparity on defense will be that stark this year and it would help Kirilloff's case dramatically if he did better in his chances against lefties. 

[Otaknam]

Some think that signing Santana means Kiriloff is trade bait because Santana plays first base very well. My take is that Santana was signed to DH and play first against lefties because they believe Buxton is finally healthy. Kiriloff play first against righties. Right now Kiriloff wouldn’t have a lot of trade value, given his injury history. Any trade of Kiriloff for a significant starter would have to include a package of ML ready prospects like the disastrous Mahle trade. So I believe Kiriloff is on the team for now. Also I’m not a big fan of moving Julien to first base, though I understand the rationale, to get Lee into the lineup at second. It’s a good problem to have.

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, RpR said:

That they picked-up Santana shows they see problems at First Base with Kirilloff.

It shows they see problems with Miranda. Santana “can” play regularly as a switch hitter but he hits best from the right side and he’s essentially an offensive step up from Solano in Power……very good defender as well. He’s definitely a fall back if Kirilloff is hurt but not because they expect to trade Kirilloff.

[JD-TWINS]

7 hours ago, DocBauer said:

So the 12 year younger Kirilloff had a 14 point higher OPS+, and had a better AVG, OB%, SLG%, and OPS against RHP...which batters generally see approximately 75% of the time...but Santana should be/is the better option??

And the front office never said they were looking for a starting 1B. 

Santana is here to fill Miranda’s spot. He posts, so if Kirilloff is hurt they have a fall back. He’s an excellent defender……..basically, a power upgrade over Solano. Also, let’s Miranda prove he can hit again - over a few months - with no risk to being a detriment in the Show.

[JD-TWINS]

21 minutes ago, Otaknam said:

Some think that signing Santana means Kiriloff is trade bait because Santana plays first base very well. My take is that Santana was signed to DH and play first against lefties because they believe Buxton is finally healthy. Kiriloff play first against righties. Right now Kiriloff wouldn’t have a lot of trade value, given his injury history. Any trade of Kiriloff for a significant starter would have to include a package of ML ready prospects like the disastrous Mahle trade. So I believe Kiriloff is on the team for now. Also I’m not a big fan of moving Julien to first base, though I understand the rationale, to get Lee into the lineup at second. It’s a good problem to have.

Good “future problems” at this point. I too cringe at Julien at 1B. Lee needs to hit well for 45-60 days straight before he becomes a real option for the Big Club………I think (doesn’t really mater) that he’ll be in St. Paul until at least mid-June or later.

Santana, as you state, is the RH bat compliment to Kirilloff at 1B. He’s not really a prolific LH hitter though so I think his DH opportunities will be very limited.

[stringer bell]

Gleeman & the Geek’s latest free podcast confirms my fears about Santana’s usage. Santana figures to be the primary first baseman and will get a lot of starts against right handed pitching. This leaves Kirilloff as the backup at first, likely platoon DH and occasional left fielder.

It would appear that there might be a “prove it” message to AK as well as an understandable hedge against injury. I’m sure Kirilloff will get plenty of chances to improve his value, but those opportunities are not unlimited. 

[Guest]

This would be the same SI that faked itself out of existence?  Why on earth would the Twins FO sell AK low?  There's zero downside to keeping AK for another year betting good health will unleash his potential?

[stringer bell]

27 minutes ago, Minderbinder said:

Why on earth would the Twins FO sell AK low?  There's zero downside to keeping AK for another year betting good health will unleash his potential?

Given the focus on “right sizing” payroll, trading Kirilloff makes less sense than ever while he is affordable and cost controlled. It isn’t here now, but on the horizon, there might come a time where the Twins might have to decide who to keep and who to let go among young veterans. 

[JD-TWINS]

Kirilloff hit .270 with a .348 OBP & 117 OPS+ in ‘23…………having your 4th-5th best hitter with an OPS+ of 120 and being paid $1.3M is a good thing.

He hit 11 HR in about 270 AB’s…….if he can get 450-500AB’s with health he’s a real offensive weapon IMO. Good OBP with ability to play LF & principally 1B ……..20+ HR power.

Not much not to like - just needs to be on the field……I think everyone agrees there.

[LA Vikes Fan]

17 hours ago, RpR said:

Santana 2023

Kirilloff 2023

Defense

Santana

Kirilloff

Sanatan is not here to just fill in; Front Office said they were looking for First Baseman and this is why.

Unless you are tied to the defense as paramount, these stats tell me you have a good platoon. Ak has an .858 OPS against RH pitching, Santana a .727. Against LH pitching, Santana is .807, AK .482. Yes, Santana is much better in the field but you have to acknowledge the possibility that AK could improve in the field with time and reps at age 26, whereas Santana is likely to regress both at the plate and in the field at age 38. Looks to me like the plan is clear: Ak starts against RH starters, Santana against LH starters and they pinch hit for each other when the bullpen changes sides. Santana is the late inning defensive replacement. I think it works well for this year. 

[RpR]

3 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Kirilloff hit .270 with a .348 OBP & 117 OPS+ in ‘23…………having your 4th-5th best hitter with an OPS+ of 120 and being paid $1.3M is a good thing.

He hit 11 HR in about 270 AB’s…….if he can get 450-500AB’s with health he’s a real offensive weapon IMO. Good OBP with ability to play LF & principally 1B ……..20+ HR power.

Not much not to like - just needs to be on the field……I think everyone agrees there.

Twins are not a minor league training camp, he is on the field IF he earns his way and so far, that is not working out too well.

It took three years before teams learned Santana was a good First Baseman and not a good catcher.

In his first three years Kirilloff has shown he is not a good fielder any where, especially Left Field.

With an increasing strike out rate, a lot not to like there.

That is why Santana is here and Kirilloff may not be.