How Far Has the Twins Rotation Fallen?

[Fatbat]

22 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

It'll make for a heck of a 4 year run if it happens.

Its all about ober and Ryan making 30 starts.  They both have a career 1.1 whip. Ober has a career  3.63 era. Ryan had a 3.55 era in 2022 over 27 starts and was better than that in 2023 before he got hurt. Those 2 guys get 30 starts each and the math works out to each having a 5 fWAR season. Pablo will do Pablo things. 

[chpettit19]

17 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

We have the talent assembled. Poor performance will only be a reflection of health. Because we are a largely young team, we should expect upside career progression throughout the team. Not many on here expect our starters to progress to the upside in their prime years. I shake my head by all the doom and gloom.  Health is going to be the driving component to success in the 162 and upside career progression is going to win in October. 

I don't think this is totally true. You're assuming only positive progression because the team has youth. There are more young players that go backwards than go forwards. There's a very real possibility that guys go the other way. The Guardians were just as young and won even more games with just as good of pitching and plenty of young offensive talent in 2022. Now plenty of fans aren't worried about them at all. We all love Julien's potential, but go look at Andres Gimenez's 2022 season. Also a 2nd baseman. He actually won a gold glove and is one of the best defenders in baseball. He made the All Star team and had an OPS+ of 141 over 146 games at the age of 23. All of that is better than Julien at the age of 24. Gimenez had a 98 OPS+ in 2023. Progression is not linear, and improvement is not guaranteed. Steven Kwan another example. Oscar Gonzalez went from a 125 OPS+ in 2022 to being DFA'd multiple times this offseason. There's a middle ground between the doom and gloom and expecting widespread progression. Youth is a destabilizing factor in any MLB team.

[DocBauer]

17 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

We have the talent assembled. Poor performance will only be a reflection of health. Because we are a largely young team, we should expect upside career progression throughout the team. Not many on here expect our starters to progress to the upside in their prime years. I shake my head by all the doom and gloom.  Health is going to be the driving component to success in the 162 and upside career progression is going to win in October. 

I do understand some who have doubts about the growth potential of Ryan and Ober at 27 and 28 years old, and parts and wholes of 3 ML seasons. They aren't 23-24yo kids fighting control but who sling it 97mph. I get that. And it's an easily defendable position to take.

But in all of the years I've watched MLB, time and time again I've seen a really good, solid, ML pitcher reach that #2 or even proverbial #1 ACE status when they hit their late 20's or touch 30yo. It's that time in their careers where stuff meets experience/knowledge and they really know how to pitch. 

I'm not saying Ryan or Ober, or anyone else, is going to suddenly be Gerrit Cole tomorrow, or even Pablo Lopez part 2, but it doesn't mean Ryan and/or Ober can't still get a little better. It doesn't mean one of them might not become a legitimate #2 going in to their 4th seasons, still under 30yo. 

Here's hoping either or both can.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

33 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

If those guys step up to 180+ innings of 3.2 ERA the rotation is way better than last year's no matter who pitches the rest of the innings (within reason). You put 3 top 10 pitchers in any rotation and it's better than what the Twins had last year. You're talking Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux if those guys reach those numbers (adjusted for era, obviously). Those 3 guys alone at those numbers would match the fWAR of last year's entire rotation.

in WHIP and K/BB they’ve shown ability to deliver extremely good results at limiting base runners. Home runs tend to vary widely, but keeping runners off the path is a great recipe for success.

im bought-in on top 3. If López, Ryan, and Ober are in the 180ish innings, Paddack can get 100 innings and DeSclafani doesn’t throw 100 innings, I very much believe this rotation is as advertised.

Health is key, I think it’s possible

[Fatbat]

17 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't think this is totally true. You're assuming only positive progression because the team has youth. There are more young players that go backwards than go forwards. There's a very real possibility that guys go the other way. The Guardians were just as young and won even more games with just as good of pitching and plenty of young offensive talent in 2022. Now plenty of fans aren't worried about them at all. We all love Julien's potential, but go look at Andres Gimenez's 2022 season. Also a 2nd baseman. He actually won a gold glove and is one of the best defenders in baseball. He made the All Star team and had an OPS+ of 141 over 146 games at the age of 23. All of that is better than Julien at the age of 24. Gimenez had a 98 OPS+ in 2023. Progression is not linear, and improvement is not guaranteed. Steven Kwan another example. Oscar Gonzalez went from a 125 OPS+ in 2022 to being DFA'd multiple times this offseason. There's a middle ground between the doom and gloom and expecting widespread progression. Youth is a destabilizing factor in any MLB team.

Correct. Someone has to point out the possible upside progression.  Not saying its going to happen tho. Just basing it on parts of past performance. If everything clicks, it could go really well.

[jkcarew]

Quote

 

290 innings from proven veterans gone between Maeda and Gray. One took second in CY voting, the other provided 105 innings with ERA and FIP better than league average.

Can Ryan add another 20 innings to his season load and at the same time cut down on his high HR allowed rate? Can Ober add another 20 innings and maintain his favorable results? Can Chris Paddack provide 120-140 effective(ish) innings? Does DeSlanfani work out even a little/kinda? Can Varland be better (than 2023’s 5+ FIP) when called upon? He gave up the long ball at a higher rate than even Ryan. Will injuries require the club to go deeper than this for significant innings?

Heavy lift, IMO. If the club finishes 2024 in the top 4 in AL ERA like they did in 2023, it seems like that would require the bullpen to be better than it was in 2023…and probably throw more innings?

[tony&rodney]

33 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Youth is a destabilizing factor in any MLB team.

This is so true which is why I had hoped that the Twins would keep Polanco. So it goes. I'm just hoping for the best.

[Twins33]

On paper, I liked last year’s rotation much better and that was still when I was expecting something from Mahle. I expected last year’s rotation to be great and they were. 
 

I only expect this rotation to be good. I don’t like Varland or Desclafani in the rotation. I’ve been wanting Varland in the BP for two to three years now. He needs to fix his HR problem. He also needs to be striking more guys out than he has (as a starter at the MLB level). If/when he does that I’ll support him in a starting role. 
 

Desclafani I have zero faith in at all so I hope he proves me majorly wrong (maybe the Twins can tweak him)
 

I also don’t like that the depth is just SWR (only guy on the 40 man if I’m recalling correctly). Ohl is probably an option at some point this year. I’ll jump on the Festa bandwagon if he can get his BB% in the 6-8% range. 

[Fire Dan Gladden]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Varland is written in ink in the rotation for me. 180 innings of ball with somewhere in the vicinity of 4.00-4.50 ERA. He is in nearly the same spot as Ober was last year but the Twins do not have a Mahle this year.

We each pick our guys, right?

 

I am just going on what every publication I have read says.  In reality, both the SP4 and SP5 are essentially up for grabs.

[tony&rodney]

I'm not sure how to communicate with those who have so little faith in Louie Varland. He has a 4.40 MLB ERA. He compares to some extent to Bryce Miller with a 4.32 ERA and Bryan Woo with a 4.24 ERA, both of whom are seen as stalwarts after one season. I think I'm real close on those numbers. We can pick away at the differences but the main idea is that if a pitcher is ever to become a bonafide middle or even good backend member of a starting rotation, those guys needs to get the ball. Varland has the pitches, the stamina, and the work ethic to succeed. 

Anthony DeSclafani would fit just fine as a swingman in the bullpen. While teams need multiple starting pitchers during any given year, my pure speculation is that the Twins cannot count on Cleveland and Detroit to crater again this season. Last season, Mahle went down fast and Ober began his run of starts in late April. Varland does not need his innings monitored after reaching 150 in each of the last two years. The Twins best shot out of the gate is with their best pitchers.

[IndianaTwin]

People see 2024 Paddack and 2023 Maeda and consider it a wash, because both are coming back from TJS, but there are three significant differences. 

Paddack is eight years younger. More importantly, he’s four months further removed from his TJS, and his rehab went well enough that he actually pitched at the end of last year. 

Said another way, on Opening Day, Paddack will be just over a month short of the second anniversary of his surgery. Based on what we saw last year, I think Paddack is going to much closer to full strength on Opening Day than Maeda was a year ago. 

Will Paddack make it the full season? Who knows, but through his first four starts with the Twins (before the short start that led to the surgery), he had a 3.15 ERA. 

[tony&rodney]

6 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

People see 2024 Paddack and 2023 Maeda and consider it a wash, because both are coming back from TJS, but there are three significant differences. 

Paddack is eight years younger. More importantly, he’s four months further removed from his TJS, and his rehab went well enough that he actually pitched at the end of last year. 

Said another way, on Opening Day, Paddack will be just over a month short of the second anniversary of his surgery. Based on what we saw last year, I think Paddack is going to much closer to full strength on Opening Day than Maeda was a year ago. 

Will Paddack make it the full season? Who knows, but through his first four starts with the Twins (before the short start that led to the surgery), he had a 3.15 ERA. 

I totally agree with this comparison. The concern with Paddack, which was voiced by both Perkins and Hawkins in an interview at TwinsFest, is that his innings and outings need to be closely monitored for stress. Hopefully he beats the over/under of 120 innings, but the Twins will want him healthy for 2025 too. There will be times to skip Paddack in the rotation, but I do think he replaces Maeda very nicely. Quickly, I state my appreciation to Maeda for his outings. He was mostly very good but had less room for error when his control was off as do all pitchers with less velocity. Paddack has good velocity and we hope he has an excellent year.

[Jocko87]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

To be fair, I believe there are 2 different debates taking place here. One is the regular season rotation and how good it might be, and pending results. But that's a little different than the debate of who the #2 starter would be in a playoff game. At least, as of now.

Both are fair questions, but slightly different topics. Which is fine, we can address both at once I think.

And this is also a reminder for discussions on the roster construction and moves we have seen this off-season.  We can all agree that a #2 playoff starter and some RH OF thump would be nice, nay, required in the post-season.  It's not the post-season yet and there are still many paths to solving these questions and a ton of things still to happen.

Also, just realized we haven't seen one of the "When is the Falvey pitching pipeline going to happen" articles in quite some time.  Now we are struggling with the concept of falling from the #1 fWar starting staff in the AL to being projected as.......#2.  Dang it.

But also, look how far we've come.  Together.  Look at us, huh!

[Doctor Wu]

13 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Varland is written in ink in the rotation for me. 180 innings of ball with somewhere in the vicinity of 4.00-4.50 ERA. He is in nearly the same spot as Ober was last year but the Twins do not have a Mahle this year.

We each pick our guys, right?

 

Good point about Varland. He could end up being a sneaky good addition to the rotation this year. As much as I wanted that extra veteran arm on the staff this year (and no, the guy (DeScalfani) we got from Seattle doesn't move the needle in that respect) I don't think our rotation has "fallen" from last year. I expect (okay, I'm hoping) guys like Ober and Paddack to exceed expectations, and also hoping the Ryan has a more consistently good year. So, I think we are looking pretty good on paper, at least for most of the regular season. Let's play ball!

[Doctor Wu]

19 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Lots of offseason still to go.

I'm curious what the rotation will look like August 1.

Yikes! Not much off-season left at this point, but it's certainly possible another interesting move or two could happen before the regular season starts. 

[Richie the Rally Goat]

15 hours ago, Fatbat said:

Lopez, ryan, ober all close to 200 innings with 3.20era 1.1 whip … all possible on the upside. Not unrealistic. 

Lopez 185 innings 3.5 era 1.15 WHIP

Ober 170 innings 3.7 era 1.1 WHIP

Ryan 180 innings 3.9 era 1.15 WHIP

A very optimistic yet possible outcome, all top 20 pitchers, still the best top 3 rotation in all of baseball 

[Cory Engelhardt]

56 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

Yikes! Not much off-season left at this point, but it's certainly possible another interesting move or two could happen before the regular season starts. 

I mean, they added Paddack on opening day a few seasons back. If you are Falvey, and you want moves to happen before opening day, there is still a month and a half to go right?

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, Fire Dan Gladden said:

As things stand today, the fWAR projection drop of only 2 seems incredibly optimistic.  The Twins SP have 1 high end starter, two middle-of-the road starters, and a whole lot of unproven pitchers and wishful thinking.  Losing Gray and Maeda was bad enough, but replacing them with nothing (Paddack is nothing until he proves it) should scare everyone.

Let's get this straight:

Twins losses:
Gray
Maeda
Pagan
Polanco
Taylor

Gains:
Santana
A few bullpen guys
(DeSclafini is not a gain)

Everything else is the same from last year.  How can anyone expect this team to be anywhere near as good as last year?

Ober got 3 runs or less in 14 of his starts. He was 8-6 with an ERA of 3.43 (Top 20 ERA in baseball) didn’t get to 150 innings so not in that discussion nationally - he got to 144 innings and threw 23 innings at AAA. He is not a middle of the road starter.

Ryan, until he pulled a leg muscle & was too stupid to let anyone know, was on track to be on All-Star team.

Are they Pablo Lopez upside - nope. Can’t have the lowest Rotation ERA in AL with just Sonny Gray’s numbers though.

Polanco played 80 games and struggled through nearly 10 starts at 3B & DHed a few games………don’t see a loss there in productivity …….just a sentimental loss.

Team’s record in Gray & Maeda’s starts was at best 21 - 26. Maeda threw 106 innings with a 4.23 ERA……..Paddack can match or better Maeda’s numbers. Who looked better in the Playoffs last fall between Maeda & Paddack?

Taylor hit .220 with a ton of strikeouts. Decent power & nice defense. Buxton/Castro can cover CF if Buxton only starts 40 games.

Buxton & Correa have to be a bit better than ‘23 with some decent upside.

Lewis - Julien - Wallner each getting 500-550AB’s v. 1/2 that number in ‘23…..that’s a plus.

Anticipated (per FanGraphs, not me) to have the best Pen in the AL.

Topa-Okert-Alcala-Funderburk can cover Pagan’s contributions with expected upside!

Santana/Kirilloff creates a solid platoon at 1B!

No Gallo - No Gordon - No Miranda eating up AB’s and not performing……….addition by subtraction!

[Woof Bronzer]

22 hours ago, jorgenswest said:

Trust is a weighty word here. 

I also recall that they chose and prepared Ober for that game by not putting him on the roster for the Toronto series. Should we interpret the roster omission as not trusting Ober also?

Isn’t it more likely they trusted both? If both series go the full distance they lined it up so Lopez gets 3 starts, Gray and Ryan 2 starts and Ober 1 start.

 

They predetermined that Ryan was going 2 innings in his one start. He could have been pitching the game of his life and they would still have yanked him.  I don't know how else to interpret this other then "we don't trust this guy."   And you certainly know there's a different approach to roster construction in a best of 3 series, so I'm not sure why you'd pretend that not wanting to roster your #4 starter for a 3 game series is the same thing as skipping your rostered #3 starter on full rest in Game 1 in order to start your #4 starter, and then predetermining a 2 inning limit for him in Game 4.  What a weird comment.  

[Doctor Wu]

21 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I mean, they added Paddack on opening day a few seasons back. If you are Falvey, and you want moves to happen before opening day, there is still a month and a half to go right?

Seems like it's still a long way from now, but opening day for the Twins is on March 27 this year! I guess the days of starting the season in early April are over. But yeah, you are right, the Paddack trade came late that spring in 2022, so there could still be a surprise or two before opening day