The Table Setter, Jan. 9: What To Do With Trevor Larnach

[Matt Braun]

Join us for thoughts I think when there's nothing to analyze, and speculation on Trevor Larnach. 

Image courtesy of © Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

You know how people sometimes say, "What a time to be alive"? This is not one of those exciting times. What a time it isn't.

Baseball Apathy
This is the least I’ve thought about baseball in an offseason. I think some combination of classist team spending and Minnesota’s announced vow of abstemiousness has neutered my usual excitement. I’m not thrilled. Nor am I jazzed. I’m looking forward to the season’s start, but only because of a basic enjoyment of Twins baseball—not because they’ve done anything to spark an anxious anticipation.

Football has most of my attention these days. I’m watching the college football national championship game while writing this—go Washington; please make this age well [Ed. note: Welp. What a time it isn't.]—while reading Fran Tarkenton’s autobiography, co-written by Jim Klobuchar. 

I know the Twins will do something before the season starts. They always do. And offseason splashiness is poorly correlated with actual, real success the following season; there’s just something so lame about the whole thing. Following up one of the most exciting seasons in recent history by losing the man who finished second in the AL Cy Young vote, while declaring that the already unimpressive payroll will decrease, sucks the life out of a fan. It’s a gut punch to those who care, even if the reasons are legitimate.

I don’t know. Maybe it’s healthy to carry your mind elsewhere when the season is on hold. I do think, though, that people tend to underrate a lack of moves, equating them to actively going backward. This isn’t the case. The Twins are already set up well, with a solid all-around offense lacking a significant hole, and they have a starting rotation that is both experienced and still relatively young. Bailey Ober is the oldest starter at 28 years of age. (Who would have guessed he was the oldest?) They could use another starter, because I don’t trust Chris Paddack to last an entire season, but there are far, far worse pitching situations in MLB.

So, yeah, here we are: I’m sad at the lack of moves, but I think the team is already set up pretty well. Hypocritical? Maybe. I guess that’s the difference between rationality and emotional thoughts.

What to do with Trevor Larnach?
After three years, I don’t think we are any closer to knowing whether Larnach is a long-term solution. He’s been perfectly okay, but okay doesn’t cut it for a guy of his prospect pedigree. He needed to prove something in 2023, and all we saw were variations of a similar mediocre theme. With Matt Wallner firmly established, have we seen the end of Larnach as a Twin? Wallner proved more in 200 at-bats than Larnach has in three seasons. I’d say to package him in a trade, but I don’t think he has much value now.

Oh, and here’s a fun thing I found the other day:

• Player 1: .222/.315/.385
• Player 2: .240/.303/.429

Player 1 is Larnach; player 2 is Oswaldo Arcia. Also, did you know Arcia is still only 32?

Still, I have this nagging feeling that he’ll Luke Raley it and break out with a team like the Rays. I guess there’s no downside to keeping him around for one more year. It’s just a shame that it looks like he’s only an ancillary depth piece, not the potential middle-of-the-order thumper he should have been. Hunter McCall will have a good breakdown piece on Larnach on the site tomorrow, though, so check back then for some detailed looks at his key areas of needed improvement.

And, those are my two thoughts of the day. How do you feel about Minnesota’s spending malaise? Do you think Larnach can still contribute to the Twins? Leave a comment and start the discussion, on these or other topics.

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[Karbo]

I see a potential glaring hole in the lineup, center field. Don't get me wrong, I really like Buxton. But what's going to happen when (not if) he goes down with another injury? Do you have confidence in Castro? What about Gordon? I don't have confidence in either one for more than a fill in here and there. Castro looked great last season, but was it a "career year" or did he truly turn a corner? Gordon had a couple of decent months 2 seasons ago, but he just doesn't look like a replacement level player. Larnach sure isn't going to CF either. Looks like a big hole to me.

[weneedneshek]

21 minutes ago, Karbo said:

I see a potential glaring hole in the lineup, center field. Don't get me wrong, I really like Buxton. But what's going to happen when (not if) he goes down with another injury? Do you have confidence in Castro? What about Gordon? I don't have confidence in either one for more than a fill in here and there. Castro looked great last season, but was it a "career year" or did he truly turn a corner? Gordon had a couple of decent months 2 seasons ago, but he just doesn't look like a replacement level player. Larnach sure isn't going to CF either. Looks like a big hole to me.

I imagine Austin Martin is also in the FOs plans to cover some of the CF duties (maybe even ahead of Gordon in that pecking order). But yea I am not comfortable with Martin/Castro/Gordon being our everyday center fielders if Buxton has another injury riddled year. Would love to see an upgrade but options right now are extremely limited outside of a trade

[Dman]

It would be nice if the Twins made a significant move early, but they have generally done well making moves late(r) in the offseason.  I keep checking MLB trade rumors, but know nothing is likely to happen until the end of January or later.  I'm fine with that if they can find another decent starter to round out the rotation.  Beyond that I am somewhat ambivalent.  

Will they trade Polanco and or Farmer?  Will they acquire another player for center field or stick with what they have? Will they add an arm to the pen?  Hard to know what they might do, but I think another quality starter needs to happen.

Call me crazy, but I still believe in Larnach.  It is getting late though. I kind of thought last year was his make or break year and now we head into 2024.  As things stand Emmanual Rodriguez is one good half season away from passing him so he needs to bring it. Hopefully this is the year.

[DJL44]

I wish they had given Larnach as much opportunity as they gave to Gallo. I watched Larnach playing for the Saints on TV and his pitch recognition wasn't the problem but he was having trouble getting barrels when he decided to swing. Lots of "just missed that one".

[umterp23]

I know trade value is important but how long do we wait for value to improve?  Value is what a team sees in x ball player anyway, so making trades are a crapshoot.  We win some, lose some or break even.  I don't see Larnach being any less or any better value then where he is now.  Would hope he would turn the corner but, he doesn't run well, doesn't have a great arm, hasn't been a 1st round bopper one would have thought.  if Gordon is on the roster, we have worse version of Larnach using the same descriptors.  Castro as utility needs to be that, if he is starting in CF which I don't mind as a spot start but long tern if Buxton is Buxton as we know him once again, then Castro is over utilized.  

 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Karbo said:

I see a potential glaring hole in the lineup, center field. Don't get me wrong, I really like Buxton. But what's going to happen when (not if) he goes down with another injury? Do you have confidence in Castro? What about Gordon? I don't have confidence in either one for more than a fill in here and there. Castro looked great last season, but was it a "career year" or did he truly turn a corner? Gordon had a couple of decent months 2 seasons ago, but he just doesn't look like a replacement level player. Larnach sure isn't going to CF either. Looks like a big hole to me.

IDK what to think of Castro either but it's also hard to ignore what he did last year.  His OPS against RHP was 801.  If Buxton can start against LHP they are in good shape.  What would be ideal is Martin stepping up.  Those two would be a great bench combo.  Gordon might the back-up out of spring training but Martin could be the answer.

[roger]

The good news, Matt, is that we don't have to make any decision on Larnach.

Doubt he will be traded as his trade value has to be low.  So I expect he will show up in Fort Myers in mid-February and the Twins and us fans will see if Mr. Larnach has turned a corner to become the player we all think he can be.  He is so far down the depth chart it doesn't make a lot of sense to spend time thinking about him.

[Eris]

Hasn’t Larnach suffered core muscle strain/injuries the past 2 years including surgery in 2022. It is difficult to assess a player’s potential when they are hurt. (In some cases being consistently hurt becomes the longer term prognosis)

[stringer bell]

I thought Trevor Larnach was the superior option to Wallner at the start of last year. His first month was encouraging, but he stagnated and was injured. I still think Larnach can be a solid MLB regular, but the clock is ticking and there’s no obvious place for him to play. I do think he and the Twins might benefit from a change of scenery. A trade for a right handed hitting corner outfielder/first baseman of equal value might really help all concerned. 

[farmerguychris]

If he still has a minor league option, I see no reason why anything needs to be done.  Let him go to spring and play for a roster spot.  His value is low, so no point in trade discussions - lets see if he gets an opportunity and what he does with it if given the chance.  

[Brandon]

Can Larnarch play 1B?  We seem to want a backup plan or platoon player to pair with Killeroff.  I know a 2 left handed batter tandem in a platoon is crazy but if we don’t have another option.  If Miranda is back in AAA then why not give Larnarch some time in LF, 1B and DH?  To be fair he did knock in 40 RBI in under 200 AB last season.  I think he can hit.  The question is can he hit enough to push his way back into the starting lineup? 

[IndianaTwin]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

I wish they had given Larnach as much opportunity as they gave to Gallo. I watched Larnach playing for the Saints on TV and his pitch recognition wasn't the problem but he was having trouble getting barrels when he decided to swing. Lots of "just missed that one".

Lots of "just missed that one" doesn't typically lead to a promotion. 

[gman]

Can the Twins win the central without Kepler or Polanco this year as the rest of the team currently stands? I think that answer is yes, unless they have an incredibly bad year. Can they win the Al with both in the lineup all year, I think that answer is probably no. SO the third question I have - can they be traded for players whose multi-year value be worth more to the team then Polanco and Kepler. If those players received are upper level minor leaguers than Larnach's value to the team is higher. His season long stats may not improve dramatically over his history, but it wouldn't have to improve much over last year to offer more hitting wise than Kepler has done over 6 1/2 of the past 8 years.

I'm sure the Kepler fans will jump all over that statement, but if Kepler doesn't offer much in the way of value of where the team can finish without him, the question is can they get something that brings longer term value for him.

I think trades of Polanco and Kepler are what most people are looking for over the next 6 weeks or so, along with a doubtful high end free agent starter or young future star pitcher.

Time to go back to sleep.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, IndianaTwin said:

Lots of "just missed that one" doesn't typically lead to a promotion. 

Right, but it points to an issue with timing (a slump) rather than an issue with pitch recognition or selection which would make me feel pessimistic about his future in MLB. I still think Larnach can be a productive MLB hitter.

[DocBauer]

I am impatient to see the FO make moves, but I am this time of year every year. And I'm impatient for ST and the season to start. But personally, I am not apathetic at all. I really like the base of this team just about everywhere you look. Not saying I don't want additions or tweaks, just that I like what's on hand.

I can't wait to get, ideally, full seasons from Lewis, Wallner, Julien, and Kirilloff. I can't wait to see Lee and Martin make their debuts. And from St Paul down I see a milb system that offers a lot of intrigue for 2024.

As to CF, I just don't know. I can still see a smallish trade to add a depth option still, similar to Taylor last season. Maybe a FA signing like Duvall falls in to our laps still, a veteran 4th OF with a good RH bat who can help cover CF but who we don't have to count on for every day play. But I can also see a scenario where Buxton is relatively healthy for 80-100 games and Castro, Martin, Keirsey, and Helman all provide depth and coverage at times. (Possibly Gordon as well, I'm not completely dismissing him). The spot may even end up as a quasi platoon between a couple of those guys. Not ideal, but not disastrous either. Much like Taylor, they'd provide as much offense as possible at the bottom of the lineup. If we somehow KNEW Buxton would be good for 80 games, I think I could live with the other 80 covered in such a way. But the offseason isn't done yet, so we'll see how things shake out.

As to Larnach, I agree with Roger that no decision has to be made yet. He's not exactly ancient yet, and still has an option. He did seem to improve the 2nd half at St Paul. He was injured each of his first couple seasons. In 2024, I believe he became ill, and not injured. I still have some belief in him. He doesn't have great range, but he's OK in the OF with a good arm, though certainly not to the caliber of Wallner. He may never develop in to the batter we had hoped for, but the 20 HR and 30 Dbl power is still there. And getting 400 AB against RH pitching i think he might still do that, even if he "hits" in the. 225-.230 range with a decent OB%. And despite his career not fully taking off, and some injury interruptions, he has kept his OB% about 90 points higher than his BA. Maybe he needs to BB a little less and barrel up a little more???

I see the ability/potential vs results so far and still see a solid OF who can produce, but more as a 7th hitter than a 4-6. But with solid defense and power in that spot, he can valuable, whether as a Twin if someone is traded, or if he himself is traded. Despite not yet reaching his projections, I can still see him being of interest to both Seattle and Miami as part of a trade package. 

[joefish]

On 1/9/2024 at 7:42 AM, Brandon said:

Can Larnarch play 1B?  We seem to want a backup plan or platoon player to pair with Killeroff.  I know a 2 left handed batter tandem in a platoon is crazy but if we don’t have another option.  If Miranda is back in AAA then why not give Larnarch some time in LF, 1B and DH?  To be fair he did knock in 40 RBI in under 200 AB last season.  I think he can hit.  The question is can he hit enough to push his way back into the starting lineup? 

Killeroff. I love it.