Five Remaining Free-Agent Fits For The Twins

[Lou Hennessy]

While the trade route might offer a clearer path to accomplishing some of their offseason goals, there are some intriguing names that remain available on the free-agent market. Should the Twins make a push for any of these players?

Image courtesy of © Jonathan Hui-USA TODAY Sports

 

The calendar has flipped to 2024, and the Twins have done *checks notes* very little to add to their roster for the upcoming season. Part of that is due to a slow-moving free agent market, as well as a lack of clarity on the funds available as they peruse the players who might be available to them.

Yet, the needs of the team remain clear. They would like to find a playoff-caliber starting pitcher to replace Sonny Gray; an offensive boost from the right side of the plate; and a more established reliever (but one who wouldn’t require more than a one-year deal).

Some of the players on this list might require a smaller financial commitment than they anticipated when they became free agents. The Twins’ front office is no stranger to waiting out the storm so that they can find these kinds of deals.

Here are five remaining free agents who fit the Twins’ current needs:

 

Rhys Hoskins
Though he missed the entirety of the 2023 season while recovering from a torn ACL, Hoskins remains one of the most popular targets among Twins fans, thanks to his stellar offensive track record with the Philadelphia Phillies. Across his six-season career, the 30-year-old slugger has a .242/.353/.492 slash line, with 148 home runs. 

Throughout his career, Hoskins has had solid success against right-handed pitchers (.819 OPS, 118 wRC+) and he has absolutely demolished lefties (.921 OPS, 146 wRC+). While he doesn’t offer much in terms of defensive value (-11 career OAA at first base), he more than makes up for it with his prodigious bat.

At the outset of the offseason, MLB Trade Rumors predicted the former Phillie would land a two-year deal worth $36 million. On the surface, that feels steeper than the Twins would like to go, given their self-imposed financial limitations, but if Hoskins’s market fails to materialize as we approach spring training, he could be a good fit on a friendlier contract. He would be a fantastic pairing with Alex Kirilloff at first base, and could get some time at designated hitter if Byron Buxton makes his way back to center field.

Adam Duvall
He may not bring as much to the batter’s box as Hoskins does, but Duvall might be a cleaner fit for the Twins, based on his ability to play center field on a semi-regular basis. While his bat doesn’t carry the same thunder, it does have a track record of providing pop from time to time. 
Think about what Michael A. Taylor provided for the Twins last season. He had another fantastic year in center field (8 OAA), while swatting 21 home runs. Duvall has a reputation for that kind of performance, where the strong defense is his calling card, and the home runs are icing on the cake. He won a Gold Glove in 2021, and has averaged 32 home runs per 162 games throughout his career. Last season, Duvall hit 21 home runs in just 92 games. If paired with some combination of Buxton and Willi Castro, he might work as a fourth outfielder type who can step into regular playing time if needed.

Duvall shouldn’t require a burdensome contract, as he is already 35-years-old and did miss some time with injuries in 2023. If the Twins have their hands tied financially, he could be a low-cost fit to put in the outfield mix on a one-year deal.

Jorge Soler
The former top prospect out of Cuba once again finds himself seeking a multi-year deal on the open market, and based on his strong 2023 campaign, he should be able to find one. But with many teams reining in their spending this offseason, he might not get the three-year, $45-million deal that many thought he would secure. If that ends up being the case, Soler would make a lot of sense for the Twins, especially if they shed some of their veteran contracts.

Last season, the right-handed corner outfielder hit .250/.341/.512, belting 36 home runs and driving in 75 runs. If signed by the Twins, Soler could occupy a corner outfield spot on a semi-regular basis, though his defense is middling at best. Some time at designated hitter would almost certainly be in the cards, but that is (again) dependent on Buxton’s ability to take the field. Like Hoskins, Soler held his own against right-handed pitching (.786 OPS, 109 wRC+) and obliterated southpaws (1.080 OPS, 181 wRC+). At the right price, that production would be incredibly enticing for a Twins outfield picture that is currently heavy on left-handed options.

John Brebbia
The most realistic option on this list is probably the least exciting, but that doesn’t mean it wouldn’t serve an important purpose. Brebbia is likely bound for a short contract worth a few million dollars, which is a sweet spot for the Twins’ front office. And while the club already nabbed Josh Staumont on a similar deal last month, Brebbia offers a higher floor and lower ceiling.

Over the last two seasons, the 33-year-old has compiled a 3.47 ERA across 106 ⅓ innings pitched, with an 8.6 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. He increased his strikeout rate by over 10 percentage points last season, but was on the shelf for about eight weeks with a lat strain.

The Twins showed interest in Brebbia before he signed his last deal with the San Francisco Giants, likely due to his penchant for throwing his slider more than half the time. If Pete Maki and the Twins’ coaching staff can help him refine that offering, they could have a diamond in the rough to add to the middle of their bullpen corps.

Not for nothing, Brebbia would also provide immaculate vibes to an already fun bullpen group.

 

Marcus Stroman
As previously noted, the Twins would likely prefer to find Gray’s replacement on the trade market. But if Stroman’s price drops to a more-reasonable level, he could make sense, as a playoff-caliber starter who wouldn’t require a massive financial commitment. He opted out of the $21 million that he was owed for the 2024 season, in the hopes of getting a multi-year commitment.

MLB Trade Rumors predicted a two-year, $44-million deal for the 31-year-old. It’s hard to picture the Twins wanting to pay Stroman more than $20 million per year, but if they can get him somewhere closer to the $15-17 million range, it would be a similar situation to what they had with Gray: a solid number-two or -three starter in their early thirties, with some question marks surrounding their health.

A healthy Stroman would slide nicely between Pablo López and Joe Ryan in the Twins’ rotation. Since the start of the 2021 season, the former Duke star owns a 3.45 ERA across 83 starts and 454 innings pitched. He’s had a sub-4.00 ERA in all but two seasons of his career, due in large part to an extensive repertoire that remains effective even into his thirties. Just last year, Stroman had four different pitches that had a 30% whiff rate or higher.

Again, like some other names on this list, the Twins would most likely only be interested in Stroman if his market fizzles.

What do you think? Do any of the names on this list stand out as targets? Who else would you put on this list? Let us know in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet.

 

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[miracleb]

The only free agents should be pitchers.  With the prospects that we have....all position players should be filled from within.......especially with all of the "reducing payroll" talk going around.

[CRF]

Should they? Yep. Will they? Nope.

[DJL44]

I like Duvall as a RH bench bat but I would prefer Aaron Hicks for the same role, mainly because Hicks would cost the league minimum salary. If they can't convince Hicks to return to the Twins then Duvall would be my next choice.

Hoskins would be a great addition if they decide to trade Max Kepler. They could move Kirilloff to LF and put Wallner in RF. Hoskins would provide more offense than Kepler at the cost of a modest overall defensive downgrade.

I was surprised to see Stroman opt out of his deal with the Cubs. He didn't end the season well at all. A sudden drop in performance usually means there is an injury concern.

[miracleb]

Wait, Stroman turned down 21M for this year??  Two years, 30M would be my guess as his max...... signing now.  He is out of the Twins range (thankfully.)

[weneedneshek]

I just think I'd rather see young guys fill a lot of these roles than the people mentioned here, outside of Hoskins. And even then I would rather any potential Hoskins money go towards pitching. If kepler, polanco, or both are moved I think a Montgomery signing would be possible even with the self inflicted payroll cut. Imagine filling our pitching hole AND keeping Jenkins, Lee, and Julien? I like that picture

[tony&rodney]

All about the money. Stroman would be a good deal for $5M, so he is not much of an option. Soler would be a good DH, but the Twins will keep that position flexible. Duvall - no. Hoskins would be delicious but .... the money.

John Brebbia might be our winning ticket.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, weneedneshek said:

Imagine filling our pitching hole AND keeping Jenkins, Lee, and Julien? I like that picture

We all like that idea. Money happens though.

[weneedneshek]

1 minute ago, tony&rodney said:

We all like that idea. Money happens though.

Contract predictions for Montgomery are between 20-25 million annually. How is that not in the realm of possibility if Kepler/Polanco are moved?

[Fatbat]

Brebbia should be top of that list. Stroman must have wanted out of Chicago badly. Not sure he is getting more than a 2 yr 32M deal. Not what we need if he crashed and burns out. Anyone know if Hoskins is 100% recovered /healthy?

[DJL44]

5 minutes ago, weneedneshek said:

Contract predictions for Montgomery are between 20-25 million annually. How is that not in the realm of possibility if Kepler/Polanco are moved?

Kepler and Polanco are not signed for the next 6 seasons. That's what it will take to get Montgomery at $25M annually.

If the Twins can get pitching in return for Kepler and Polanco then it makes some sense to add bats through free agency. The prices are better for free agent hitters than for free agent pitchers.

[tony&rodney]

Just now, weneedneshek said:

Contract predictions for Montgomery are between 20-25 million annually. How is that not in the realm of possibility if Kepler/Polanco are moved?

Moving Kepler and/or Polanco without a significant return would weaken the team quite a bit. 

I would love for the Twins to sign Montgomery (or Snell), but these type of large money, long term deals for free agent pitchers is a near zero chance for the Twins by practice and design. Removing money from the roster doesn't change the thought process in my opinion, but I do agree that adding either Monty or Snell would be nice. We just don't know if the Twins are looking to use a roster budget of $100-125 this year and going forward. A guy like John Brebbia might help. If there is $12-15M available, Rhys Hoskins would be a sweet addition, but again .... money.

[weneedneshek]

4 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Kepler and Polanco are not signed for the next 6 seasons. That's what it will take to get Montgomery at $25M annually.

If the Twins can get pitching in return for Kepler and Polanco then it makes some sense to add bats through free agency. The prices are better for free agent hitters than for free agent pitchers.

I am aware, I am just saying that it would fit into this years budgetary constraints. If the FO is already planning to cut even more in future years then yea they likely won't, but we don't know that. The twins will only get a pitcher to fill Sonny Gray's slot by adding a top prospect along with kepler/polanco, that is what I am trying to avoid. There is no free agent hitter on Montgomery's level outside of Cody Bellinger who has even worse pricing actually.

[weneedneshek]

13 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Moving Kepler and/or Polanco without a significant return would weaken the team quite a bit. 

I would love for the Twins to sign Montgomery (or Snell), but these type of large money, long term deals for free agent pitchers is a near zero chance for the Twins by practice and design. Removing money from the roster doesn't change the thought process in my opinion, but I do agree that adding either Monty or Snell would be nice. We just don't know if the Twins are looking to use a roster budget of $100-125 this year and going forward. A guy like John Brebbia might help. If there is $12-15M available, Rhys Hoskins would be a sweet addition, but again .... money.

I'm not outlining the return they would get at all, I'm just saying IF they do move them then my signing would fit into this years budget.

Maybe they won't based off past history, I am merely advocating for what I would like to see them do and it fits into the constraints they have shared publicly

[Major League Ready]

36 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Moving Kepler and/or Polanco without a significant return would weaken the team quite a bit. 

I would love for the Twins to sign Montgomery (or Snell), but these type of large money, long term deals for free agent pitchers is a near zero chance for the Twins by practice and design. Removing money from the roster doesn't change the thought process in my opinion, but I do agree that adding either Monty or Snell would be nice. We just don't know if the Twins are looking to use a roster budget of $100-125 this year and going forward. A guy like John Brebbia might help. If there is $12-15M available, Rhys Hoskins would be a sweet addition, but again .... money.

I don’t see the budget dropping by $40M+ going forward.  TV revenue is not going away completely.  If it drops $20M that’s only a $10M change in revenue.  What has not been considered in these threads is that Lopez will get a $13M.5 bump next year and we have a couple players that are or will become arbitration eligible.  So, we can trade Polanco and Kepler to free up funds this year but if they redistribute the dollars this year, they are going to be in a corner next year.  Farmer will go away but Vazquez will be impossible to move unless he bounces back this year.

This points to them going after cost controlled pitching.  They could also go after someone like Hoskins and hope to win with a big offense like the rangers did last year or come up with pitching internally or a comeback candidate.

[chpettit19]

48 minutes ago, Fatbat said:

Brebbia should be top of that list. Stroman must have wanted out of Chicago badly. Not sure he is getting more than a 2 yr 32M deal. Not what we need if he crashed and burns out. Anyone know if Hoskins is 100% recovered /healthy?

Hoskins was taking BP, fielding, and running the bases with no restrictions during the playoffs last year so he should be 100% recovered from the surgery.

[nicksaviking]

Hoskins or none of the above. I don't see the fit for any of the others. Stroman is a complete 180 from the current strikeout/flyball  makeup of the rotation. No interest. Knowing this team, they'd keep their best lineup off the field every fifth day to accommodate his pitch tendencies. Stay away from groundball starters who can't get strikeouts.

Michael Taylor should serve as the warning sign against Duval. His obscene K% and poor OBP would kill an offense that is already struggling in those areas.

I wouldn't put up a fuss about Brebbia, but I don't think they need a 3rd or 4th lefty in the pen.

Soler, I don't know, I guess I don't trust him. His strikeout rates range from acceptable to awful, but that's kind of weird, most guys are more consistent in that area. Mostly, I tend to be leery of guys who put up big contract year stats following an abysmal season.

[nicksaviking]

Just now, chpettit19 said:

Hoskins was taking BP, fielding, and running the bases with no restrictions during the playoffs last year so he should be 100% recovered from the surgery.

Yeah, I don't think there needs to be much hand-wringing about a 1st baseman a year removed from knee surgery. We see baseball players who play much more demanding positions do this regularly. Heck, NFL running backs do it all the time.

[chpettit19]

4 minutes ago, nicksaviking said:

Yeah, I don't think there needs to be much hand-wringing about a 1st baseman a year removed from knee surgery. We see baseball players who play much more demanding positions do this regularly. Heck, NFL running backs do it all the time.

There's very few surgeries that worry me in any sport anymore. Shoulders for guys who throw things is about it. Otherwise the guys who don't recover are the outliers so I don't think people need to worry about much after a guy is a year removed from any procedure.

[Mike Sixel]

Hoskins isn't getting signed to share time with AK....AK sits, plays OF, or goes to AAA (assuming he has options) if Hoskins is here. Unless people think Buxton will play CF and Rhys DHs.....

In other words, I agree with nicksaviking

[nicksaviking]

51 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

There's very few surgeries that worry me in any sport anymore. Shoulders for guys who throw things is about it. Otherwise the guys who don't recover are the outliers so I don't think people need to worry about much after a guy is a year removed from any procedure.

TOS is the other one I don't like to see. And I think I read Staumont had that?

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, nicksaviking said:

TOS is the other one I don't like to see. And I think I read Staumont had that?

He did. I haven't seen which kind he had, though. I don't even remember what the 2 types are, but I know one has a significantly better positive outcome rate than the other.

[PatPfund]

Next year, if anything, is likely to have a tighter budget than this year (Lopez extension kicks in on top of the max rates for Correa and Buxton, and maybe Dobnak's last year?), so I highly doubt the Twins are looking to make multiple year $10-million-plus commitments to players over 30. Especially position players.

So unless markets on these cave to single year (which I really don't see for the bigger names here), I'd guess none other than the RP are likely. And personally, I'd rather they focus on adding that starting pitcher first, because the assets traded or not traded will dictate a lot of what they need (or don't need) elsewhere. Last year they jumped on Gallo first probably figuring later moves (like trading Max) would open a role for him, and instead ended up with a fairly expensive prospect-block that kept Matt Wallner down at AAA a month longer than he should have been.

There are plausible in-house answers for most of the roster issues outside of adding a mid-to-upper rotation starter. Fix that, or save your assets/money for a mid-season move.

[August J Gloop]

Shota Imanaga. The clock is ticking. Come flying in with a groovy offer and get it done. 

Trade Ober and Kepler for Bieber. Send Polo and a prospect to Chicago for Cease. (Essentially put a couple guys in spots they've hit well in and can look cool for flips). Make an AL Central pitching Voltron wearing a Twins hat. 

I'm mostly joking about that, but I think Imanaga and another good pitcher from a trade would be great. 

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Hoskins isn't getting signed to share time with AK....AK sits, plays OF, or goes to AAA (assuming he has options) if Hoskins is here. Unless people think Buxton will play CF and Rhys DHs.....

In other words, I agree with nicksaviking

The landscape changes if they trade Kepler.  Kirilloff goes to LF.  Hoskins fits great in that scenario.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

These are all nice fantasy gets but only Brebbia seems in the realm of possibility  UNLESS signing them is part of making other moves. Stroman (projected 15-18m a year for 3 plus years) - too expensive for a guy who only pitches 140 innings a year who seems to be on the decline. Not happening. DuVall - too old, too strikeout prone, and too expensive at a projected $8m a year. A little better than M. Taylor but twice the price. Only a fit if his price comes pretty far down and there isn't any reason that it will.

On the other three, Hoskins ($20m a year, prob multiple years?) could be an interesting get IF we trade Kepler and Polanco for pre-FA/pre-arbitration assets to even out the salaries. Means Kirilloff moves to LF, Wallner to RF and Hoskins plays 1B and hits 4 or 5. I kind of like it; would be happy if we did this and got some decent pitching assets for Polanco and Kepler. Soler ($12-15m a year, multiple years) is a possibility but only if Polanco or Kepler is traded to give room for the roughly 12-15m a year salary. and we are willing to commit to at least 2 years. He would have to play LF (poorly) to get him into the lineup and would Strike Out a lot, so bigger risk/lesser reward than Hoskins but still in the "interesting, I can see the logic there" range.  Brebbia is the most interesting on the fit. He is projected to get $5M + in his last arb year in 2024 and will then be a FA. A little pricey but I could see it as a stand alone. 

BTW, thanks for the thought process and the article. Fun for us armchair GMs even if disagree with your ideas. Keep them coming. 

 

[tony&rodney]

3 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

I don’t see the budget dropping by $40M+ going forward.  TV revenue is not going away completely.  If it drops $20M that’s only a $10M change in revenue.  What has not been considered in these threads is that Lopez will get a $13M.5 bump next year and we have a couple players that are or will become arbitration eligible.  So, we can trade Polanco and Kepler to free up funds this year but if they redistribute the dollars this year, they are going to be in a corner next year.  Farmer will go away but Vazquez will be impossible to move unless he bounces back this year.

This points to them going after cost controlled pitching.  They could also go after someone like Hoskins and hope to win with a big offense like the rangers did last year or come up with pitching internally or a comeback candidate.

The budget is unknown but we should not be surprised by anything from $115-135M.  I just don't expect the Twins to sign a FA starting pitcher. I would like the Twins to sign Hoskins for a year, but he will likely get a larger contract than the Twins are comfortable paying and get multiple years. I think the Twins would be a good team for him to put up great numbers this year, which might solidify his next contract.

I have expected the increase for Lopez and small bump next year for Correa (fangraphs) plus the impending arb increases to affect decisions this year. From the start of the offseason, I have believed the Twins to focus on inexpensive additions with the potential movement of any of Polanco, Kepler, Farmer to only occur if the return made sense now. Depending on how we see Lewis, Julien, Lee, Kirilloff, and others progress, the Twins may look to trade Polanco later in the season.

[Mike Sixel]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

The landscape changes if they trade Kepler.  Kirilloff goes to LF.  Hoskins fits great in that scenario.  

Correct, that was kind of my point.....

[Parfigliano]

Duvall would fit if Buxton can play 80+ games in CF.  Problem.  Buxton can't.  Won't and never will.  If FO planning is revolving around Buxton's D in CF for half of games...Wow.  Just wow.

[sweetmusicviola16]

I don't know, Max is likely a throw in to dump salary if a trade does happen. I believe he is more valuable to us than others based on the fact that he is still here. So if Max were dumped in a trade and we sign Hoskins I don't see that tradeoff making us better. To the contrary. I say forget about Hoskins and keep Max. These others aren't happening. Twins wanting to cut payroll not increase it.