Moving Louie Varland to the Bullpen would be Malpractice

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, mnfireman said:

Twins ERA in innings 7-9 was 2.55. The slash line was .233/.317/.402 (.719 OPS). I don't think the bullpen was the weakest link most fans remembered.

Correct, and the regular season value is not nearly as important as we think. The post season value is top of scale.

[wabene]

12 hours ago, Doctor Gast said:

You are nitpicking. Varland hasn't come close to putting in a full season as a SP, so he's still a rookie in my book, much like the comparison I gave of Ober in '22. He's MLB ready so why waste time with him pitching at AAA? We need him pitching on the main club & have him slowly vamp up to pitching  5 innings. So what do we do with Paddack? Do we have him pitch down at AAA too until he's completely vamped up? No, the best solution is the piggyback system, again Pineda/ Perez worked great, don't mess with something that works.

[wabene]

10 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

Varland in St. Paul any longer is absolutely malpractice 

Sorry, hard disagree here. With your thinking, what is your starter depth? We had the same conflict here last year with Ober and as mentioned he ended up making 25 starts. As I've said before to those who will complain when a major league caliber starter is waiting in St Paul, this is a good thing. It is a sign that you have a competitive ballclub. If your front office has a young major league caliber starter waiting their turn in AAA every year, they are doing a commendable job. The opposite would be malpractice, scrambling to ramp up Varland or turning to a lesser pitcher when the inevitable injuries happen. 

[wabene]

1 hour ago, wabene said:

[wabene]

2 hours ago, wabene said:

 

22 minutes ago, wabene said:

[Launch Angle]

Varland should certainly be given one more shot to be a quality starter, he has proven in spurts that he could turn into a mid-rotation asset. My question is how much upside does he have in the rotation vs being a potential lights out set up man.

Is being a quality #4 starter more valuable than a great bullpen arm? Personally, I think he'd need to reach the level of a solild #3 (which I think is possible), and if he cant be that I'd move him to the pen. I'm excited to see if he can continue to improve on last year, especially with the new cutter he discovered.

[Doctor Gast]

3 hours ago, wabene said:

You caught me on one of my brain farts. Good one.

[Otaknam]

Lack of starting depth clearly means Varland starts. They also need  Festa, SWR, or another pitcher to show himself ready to start, with Festa the most obvious given his success last season. Hopefully Alcala and others can emerge to bolster the bullpen. I do think they will trade for another starter, but hopefully don’t get snookered again trading for damaged goods while giving up excellent young players, I.e. Cincinnati. Headrick and Dobnak are just fringe big leaguers unless they have developed a real out pitch or an 97 mph fastball. And Jenkins, Lee, Rodriquez, Soto, and Raya are off the table. 

[JD-TWINS]

20 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Totally agree. Varland is a perfect #4 starter because he can pitch effective innings ahead of Chris Paddack whose innings will need to be controlled to some extent. In a best case scenario, Varland pitches 180+ innings with an ERA around 4.25 - 4.50.

180 innings is an awfully tall order for a guy that had 10 starts in the Show last year. That’s a Pablo Lopez like total. Even, best case, I can’t imagine him getting more than 130 innings as part of the back end of the rotation revolving through the 4th & 5th spots in the rotation. He seems to be an obvious guy to transition to the Pen for mid-inning appearances in October.

To keep his & Paddack & Ober’s innings under control, Twins need to sign or trade for that new guy in the rotation.

Am assuming Woods-Richardson sees 5 starts & Festa for a handful as well after the 1st of July into September.

[Cory Engelhardt]

3 hours ago, wabene said:

Sorry, hard disagree here. With your thinking, what is your starter depth? We had the same conflict here last year with Ober and as mentioned he ended up making 25 starts. As I've said before to those who will complain when a major league caliber starter is waiting in St Paul, this is a good thing. It is a sign the you have a competitive ballclub. If your front office has a young major league caliber starter waiting their turn in AAA every year, they are doing a commendable job. The opposite would be malpractice, scrambling to ramp up Varland or turning to a lesser pitcher when the inevitable injuries happen. 

First things first; I more meant, when (yes, I expect when) Varland isn't one of the top 5 (or even 6?) starters at the start of the year, I meant it would be malpractice to not have his arm as a weapon in the bullpen. He has too much high leverage arm talent to be using it against AAA competition. He can be a weapon in the bullpen, and IF a lot of people get hurt, then they can send him at that point. Opening day is not that time.

But for depth, here is what I see...

Starting with the Twins...

1) Lopez

2) Trade addition, playoff level starter

3) Joe Ryan

4) Bailey Ober

5) Chris Paddack

6) TBD, Major League free agent starter

With this, I also think there is a decent shot that they both A) Trade for a playoff level starter and B) Sign a free agent to a 1 year deal or 1 year with an option. That would bring the list to 6 here.

Then at St. Paul (in no exact order, I'm not certain how they view these guys, but...)

1) David Festa

2) Simeon Woods Richardson

3) Josh Winder (is he still getting a chance to start, or is he moving to the bullpen too?)

4) Pierson Ohl (check out his AA numbers from 2023)

5) Randy Dobnak (don't laugh)

6) Brent Headrick

7) Minor League Free Agent Starter

I also think they will bring in at least one veteran minor league starter who will begin the year at AAA, and probably slot above Dobnak and Winder.

Then at Wichita, you have Marco Raya and the rest of last year's Cedar Rapids rotation. This rotation will be super fun to follow on the year, and a few could make it to the majors in 2024 to be honest in some capacity.

 

Anyway, the Twins have depth to cover the back-end of the rotation, especially with Varland being able to move to the bullpen.

The Twins, as of now, have only 36 spots on their 40 man. Plus with all of the chatter of Polanco/Kepler/Farmer being moved, there will be a LOT of outside additions to this roster prior to spring training.

[Trov]

I agree to try and give him another chance at starting.  However, the uptick in velo is most likely connected to his expected roll out of the pen.  I would give him a chance at starting, but one if we have others that can be as competent at starting, I would not hesitate to move him into pen if we need it. Really, unless he becomes a number 3 or higher starter the amount of money between an end of rotation starter and a top relief guy, if he could become that, is becoming much less of a difference. 

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Launch Angle said:

Is being a quality #4 starter more valuable than a great bullpen arm? 

Yes. A starter as good as Maeda was last season is more valuable than all but the most elite relievers.

[tony&rodney]

46 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

180 innings is an awfully tall order for a guy that had 10 starts in the Show last year. That’s a Pablo Lopez like total. Even, best case, I can’t imagine him getting more than 130 innings as part of the back end of the rotation revolving through the 4th & 5th spots in the rotation. He seems to be an obvious guy to transition to the Pen for mid-inning appearances in October.

To keep his & Paddack & Ober’s innings under control, Twins need to sign or trade for that new guy in the rotation.

Am assuming Woods-Richardson sees 5 starts & Festa for a handful as well after the 1st of July into September.

Varland has been handled carefully in his career, but has thrown 150 innings in each of the last two years. He can can handle an increase. It is Chris Paddack who will be quite restricted next year. Take the under at 120 innings on Paddack. Effective pitching is all that will restrict Varland. 

The Twins may add someone for spot starts but Snell, Montgomery, oe even Giolito seem unlikely. Negotiations are ongoing with Bally, apparently, and perhaps we are all surprised. I'm in favor of a trade that brings in guys like Kirby, Gilbert, and Luzardo. That seems very unlikely as well. Unless something financially helpful occurs, it looks like the Twins add someone behind the back end of the rotation. I'm less worried about Varland than some of our position players, with Buxton being the main concern among some others.

[August J Gloop]

Too much time is spent dinking around with these mid / end rotation pitchers. I agree the Twins need a couple more. But the only reason anyone thinks Varland might be that is because he's already on the team (and maybe a little because he's from St Paul). If we saw him on another team would we be clamoring to add him to the mix?  

In order for Varland to be a legit starting option he needs to develop two whole pitches. As it stands, he has no secondary pitches of worth for a starter. Out of the pen, he's got a 100 MPH fastball and (at least) two secondary pitches that increase in effectiveness in contrast. Unless he comes back from driveline with a wipeout slider and a changeup that won't get barreled, what will be gained by having him pitch at 94-95 for 6 innings a week vs at 98-100 for 1 every other day?  

[tony&rodney]

21 minutes ago, Trov said:

Really, unless he becomes a number 3 or higher starter the amount of money between an end of rotation starter and a top relief guy, if he could become that, is becoming much less of a difference. 

The Twins have Jhoan Duran to close games and a decent corps of setup relief pitchers in Jax, Stewart, and Thielbar. A back end starter runs about $15 million. Guys like Wacha, Flaherty, and others are getting paid good money. Eventually the Twins need to find out what they have in Varland. If he does not show well next season, they can transition him to the pen. After two seasons of being the Twins Minor League POTY and a strong showing in April and May last year, Varland deserves a good long look in the rotation.

 

[August J Gloop]

20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Yes. A starter as good as Maeda was last season is more valuable than all but the most elite relievers.

This only serves to argue that the Twins should have signed Maeda. Varland is way way way behind Maeda right now.

[TopGunn#22]

When you're the 44th or 45th guy to comment on a topic, most everybody else has made any points you would have earlier.  That said, this is a good conversation piece.  I don't think moving Varland to the bullpen is "malpractice" but I understand Greggory using it to make his point.

My point or points is that this is a very fluid situation that has a number of "dominoes" that need to fall before we finally land on what the strategy will be.  And even then it may be a bit muddled.

Starting Pitchers always have more "value" because they throw more innings.  However, relief pitchers that throw high leverage innings can still be VERY valuable.  Top flight closers and elite set up guys like Devin Williams was before Hader was traded fall into this category.  

Varland has the potential to be one of these elite set up guys.  He also has the potential to be a solid #3 or #4 SP.  I'm one of those guys who would really like to see Varland in that 8th inning role.  He's more durable than Stewart, who was lights out last year.  He's more talented than Jax who suffers when he's overworked.  

But Varland is only an 8th inning guy if the Twins come up with one or two SP options to replace what the rotation lost.  We're all in agreement that Paddack replaces Maeda.  The question we're all waiting to see answered is WHO is going to replace Gray?  A trade for a Jesus Luzardo or Luis Castillo caliber SP just doesn't seem likely. 

While I would like to love to see it happen, Twins fans may have to be willing to accept a Julien or Lee caliber player being sent out to accomplish that.  That's certainly true for Luzardo.  Castillo could be had for less, but then the Twins have to figure out how to absorb his salary for 2024 while only sending a Polanco sized contract out (necessitating a cost efficient minor league player like Emmanuel Rodriguez or even a Wallner to be included).

The other option for the rotation is a FA signing.  Giolito seems to be getting too expensive, so in order to get a guy with a #1 or #2 pedigree at a somewhat affordable price, they would have to settle for a Frankie Montas or Trevor Bauer.  In my opinion, they need to add a #2 (maybe #1) type of SP.  My targets would be Castillo or Montas/Bauer.  If they did that the rotation would look like this:  Lopez, (Castillo/Bauer/Montas), Ryan, and Ober.  That's 4 SP's.  If they only add ONE good SP I'd like to see the Paddack/Varland piggyback.  If Paddack and Varland are calibrated to pitch 3-4 innings each outing they can, or should be able to get to the 7th/8th inning each start and reduce the stress on their bullpen.  Having Paddack/Varland as the #5 could be very effective.

To me, THAT is the most productive strategy and outcome for the Twins in 2024.  Varland is still stretched out enough to throw a good amount of innings.  Paddack is being protected and hopefully thriving under a carefully managed number of innings/pitches thrown.  If the Twins need to dip into the St. Paul rotation for a spot start or three, Festa, SWR, etc...can provide.

A "Wild Card" in all this is the guy who may have the BEST or 2nd BEST stuff in the system.  Matt Canterino.  If Canterino can get thru April and maybe half of May healthy and pitching effectively, HE becomes the 8th inning guy Varland COULD be.  This way, the Twins protect the viability of Varland as a SP.  They also don't waste innings for him down in St. Paul.  Varland has been up with the Twins for parts of the last 2 seasons.  It's time to make him a Major League pitcher.  The Twins also do not waste potential innings for Canterino in St. Paul.  If he's firing on all cylinders in St. Paul, get him up in mid-May and get him Major League innings.   

For any of this to happen, we have to see what the Twins do for that #2 SP spot.  That domino has to fall before any others do.  Once that happens, we may finally see a clear path forward for how the Twins plan to stock their rotation AND bullpen for 2024.  

[saviking]

We don't have the starting depth to move him to the pen .. I like the Ober analogy if we sign a top-flight starter.

[wabene]

2 hours ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

First things first; I more meant, when (yes, I expect when) Varland isn't one of the top 5 (or even 6?) starters at the start of the year, I meant it would be malpractice to not have his arm as a weapon in the bullpen. He has too much high leverage arm talent to be using it against AAA competition. He can be a weapon in the bullpen, and IF a lot of people get hurt, then they can send him at that point. Opening day is not that time.

But for depth, here is what I see...

Starting with the Twins...

1) Lopez

2) Trade addition, playoff level starter

3) Joe Ryan

4) Bailey Ober

5) Chris Paddack

6) TBD, Major League free agent starter

With this, I also think there is a decent shot that they both A) Trade for a playoff level starter and B) Sign a free agent to a 1 year deal or 1 year with an option. That would bring the list to 6 here.

Then at St. Paul (in no exact order, I'm not certain how they view these guys, but...)

1) David Festa

2) Simeon Woods Richardson

3) Josh Winder (is he still getting a chance to start, or is he moving to the bullpen too?)

4) Pierson Ohl (check out his AA numbers from 2023)

5) Randy Dobnak (don't laugh)

6) Brent Headrick

7) Minor League Free Agent Starter

I also think they will bring in at least one veteran minor league starter who will begin the year at AAA, and probably slot above Dobnak and Winder.

Then at Wichita, you have Marco Raya and the rest of last year's Cedar Rapids rotation. This rotation will be super fun to follow on the year, and a few could make it to the majors in 2024 to be honest in some capacity.

 

Anyway, the Twins have depth to cover the back-end of the rotation, especially with Varland being able to move to the bullpen.

The Twins, as of now, have only 36 spots on their 40 man. Plus with all of the chatter of Polanco/Kepler/Farmer being moved, there will be a LOT of outside additions to this roster prior to spring training.

There appear to be 2 camps here so I don't think this is between you and I. I will respond to your post though. I do not see the depth you do. I'm looking for major league quality depth, this is supposed to be a contender. I do see the Twins trading for a major league starter, hopefully a top of the rotation arm, but that will be expensive. Then maybe a minor league signing bounce back candidate like De Leon, that would be your number 6. I would argue any starter that fits this mold is clearly behind Louie and this is why Louie is my number 6. You are not going to get anyone better than that to sign a minor league deal. That is exactly why a good team will have a quality young arm with options "wasting his bullets" in AAA.

Let's look at our depth behind the top 5 including that trade acquisition:

L. Varland has not had the injury issues of many of our starter candidates and is highly motivated to start. A bulldog. The fastball/cutter at 99-98 & 92-91 is lights out. Can he make it work at 96-95 & 90-89? If he is a #3 or better starter, forget about the pen. Duran is not starting because he couldn't hold up to a starter's work load, that's not Louie. 

SWR has pitched in the majors, has the pedigree and is now entering the early part of his prime (still young), so even though his results have been spotty, he has a chance. Solid depth. 

David Festa has the stuff to be a starter for a few innings, then he gasses out. The string bean needs to build up stamina and get stronger. He is not quite solid depth, more unproven depth. If he can't make it as a starter, he looks good in the pen to me.

That's it. After this you have to reach down to AA or below? Pierson Ohl, Andrew Morris, C J Culpeper, Corey Lewis, Zebby Matthews? Maybe one of these guys jumps up and makes a couple of good starts. Maybe.

Dobnak? Would be a fun story, but it's a fairytale. 

Raya? Not yet anyway. 

After that I would put Hendrick next for what's left at AAA, but after 2 good long relief outings the wheels fell off. Starter? Very iffy. 

I'm sure I'm missing somebody and they will add, but the depth is not what it was last year. So far anyway. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

I'll reply to your comment here @wabene. I appreciate the back and forth.

I do think they will add a playoff level starter via trade. I also think they will add a major league free agent AND at least one minor league starter via free agency.

With that, I'm saying I'd prefer to have Varland in the major league bullpen compared to having his arm getting AAA hitters out. If he is successful in the bullpen, and there becomes a need to stretch him out later on, then I am behind that too. But I'd prefer he is on the major league roster opening day, not in AAA. I don't see any value in him not on the 13 man pitching staff come opening day. There isn't an argument that I can get behind that says he is not a major leaguer at this point. His arm talent is much more valuable in the 6-8th innings than it is getting out Durham Bulls.

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, August J Gloop said:

Too much time is spent dinking around with these mid / end rotation pitchers. I agree the Twins need a couple more. But the only reason anyone thinks Varland might be that is because he's already on the team (and maybe a little because he's from St Paul). If we saw him on another team would we be clamoring to add him to the mix?  

In order for Varland to be a legit starting option he needs to develop two whole pitches. As it stands, he has no secondary pitches of worth for a starter. Out of the pen, he's got a 100 MPH fastball and (at least) two secondary pitches that increase in effectiveness in contrast. Unless he comes back from driveline with a wipeout slider and a changeup that won't get barreled, what will be gained by having him pitch at 94-95 for 6 innings a week vs at 98-100 for 1 every other day?  

The difference is that this is a young pitcher on the rise who can reasonably project some where higher.  We are all tired of and don’t want washed up vets at the back of the rotation but those innings are valuable during the regular season. Varland should get a shot to show what he’s brought back from driveline.

And yes, Varland is the exact profile of what they are looking to trade for.  Young, controlled, promising, some MLB experience but with a few tweaks they can unlock a stud.  I don’t know that Varland himself would be a guy they would target but the profile certainly is. What we clamber for is irrelevant.

[wabene]

7 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'll reply to your comment here @wabene. I appreciate the back and forth.

I do think they will add a playoff level starter via trade. I also think they will add a major league free agent AND at least one minor league starter via free agency.

With that, I'm saying I'd prefer to have Varland in the major league bullpen compared to having his arm getting AAA hitters out. If he is successful in the bullpen, and there becomes a need to stretch him out later on, then I am behind that too. But I'd prefer he is on the major league roster opening day, not in AAA. I don't see any value in him not on the 13 man pitching staff come opening day. There isn't an argument that I can get behind that says he is not a major leaguer at this point. His arm talent is much more valuable in the 6-8th innings than it is getting out Durham Bulls.

My problem with that is starting pitching is the most valuable and hard to develop major league asset. Like the quarterback in football. I don't think you can just snap your fingers and switch a young guy from relieving to starting in May. "Just stretch him out". It's not that easy. Let Louie focus singularly on his dream of being a starter. If the results are middling and the need is there, he can always move to the pen for the stretch run. It is much easier to go from starting to the pen than vice versa. As for wasting innings in AAA, Ober got 25 starts last year even after being sent down for a while. Louie will get his chance and he will be hungry. My 2¢.

[Cory Engelhardt]

JUST to compare to Ober, I do not at all think Ober's stuff would play up as well as Varland's in a setup caliber role. That's why I'm excited for Varland and his transition to high end reliever. 

I do see Ober as a #3 or #4 level starter. I'm not certain at all that his stuff translates to being more than a middle reliever if there is a need. He is good in a starting role.

I also see Varland as being a #5 starter, but can be a high leverage reliever. I truly believe he can slot in with Jax and Stewart after Duran and frankly be ahead of them in some ways. That is super valuable to a team trying to win, barring health. 

And no, I'm not expecting every single minor league pitching prospect to be able to have fingers snapped and have a starter out of thin air. But I am confident in the coaching and development staff to know when guys are ready. They will probably have, at minimum, 11 guys make at least one start next year (that's pretty typical) and if Varland is one of those, that's not the end of the world at all. I just think his value is stronger to the team in a setup role compared to a back-end rotation role, depending on health.

[jmlease1]

13 hours ago, DocBauer said:

So here's the thing, by virtually EVERYONE'S opinion...barring a huge surprise...the Twins will look to add a quality SP for 2024 similar to adding Lopez last year. Just like it WASN'T an insult to Ober last year, it is no insult to Varland that they want to add for 2024 to have that 6th SP "in their pocket" because EVERYONE needs more than 5 SP through the course of a season.

Sometimes you get very, very lucky and only need about 7 at some point. And, unfortunately, sometimes you get very unlucky and have a run of injuries and need more. But even the healthiest teams sometimes need that temporary fill in starter, or that double header add, etc.

I don't have every number at my grasp right now, but if you look at Varland's 2022 numbers, and the first 5 starts to 2023, he was looking pretty damn good. His final numbers in 3 poor 2023 starts skew his overall performance thus far.

Has he proven he's a legitimate ML, potential mid rotation starter? Not yet with about 100 IP. But if you look hard at Baseball Reference...which I did a few weeks ago when this same topic was brought up...you would see a young hurler on a very solid 10 game stretch before 3 bad games. And yet again, the best start of his young career was a 7 IP, dominant, performance against the Astros in 2023 before he suddenly lost some control and the HR came in bunches.

And yet again, the cutter looked different when he came up late last year. If his slider and change can be just a little more consistent, he might just be a #3. And he's got value as a #4 as well.

But if the rotation is good enough, strong enough, and he DOESN'T grab hold of opportunity when it presents itself, YES, by all means, he should be in the pen. 

But to begin 2024, I've sure seen enough to keep him as the 6th SP in waiting the same way Ober was in 2023.

I think this sums it up very well. The cutter does look better and it's a legit second pitch for Varland. for him to stick in the rotation, he'll need a 3rd pitch and I think it's an interesting question which it will be: slider or change? I have to wonder if focusing on developing one of them in the offseason will be the key, or can he work on both of them and see which one emerges once he starts facing live hitters in spring training?

The Twins will need more than just 5 starters in 2024, and having someone like Varland to pick up 20-25 starts as a relatively young player who is still refining his repertoire is a big asset. Teams end up using 10+ starters during a season (for more than just spot starts, which I consider 5 or more) when they don't have a guy as that 6th starter who can come in and handle the business when someone misses 2-3 weeks with a groin pull. We used essentially 8 starters in 2023: Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Ober, Maeda, Varland, Kuechel, and Mahle. That doesn't happen if we don't have real options as the 6th and 7th guys in Ober and Varland.

[chpettit19]

27 minutes ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I'll reply to your comment here @wabene. I appreciate the back and forth.

I do think they will add a playoff level starter via trade. I also think they will add a major league free agent AND at least one minor league starter via free agency.

With that, I'm saying I'd prefer to have Varland in the major league bullpen compared to having his arm getting AAA hitters out. If he is successful in the bullpen, and there becomes a need to stretch him out later on, then I am behind that too. But I'd prefer he is on the major league roster opening day, not in AAA. I don't see any value in him not on the 13 man pitching staff come opening day. There isn't an argument that I can get behind that says he is not a major leaguer at this point. His arm talent is much more valuable in the 6-8th innings than it is getting out Durham Bulls.

If they add a pitcher in trade and a major league free agent what does the rotation look like? They were pretty clear last year that they didn't think a 6 man rotation was a viable idea so who is going to the pen or AAA in that situation? I'd guess not the free agent since they likely wouldn't sign here if that were the case.

[Cory Engelhardt]

I would imagine they will treat a major league signing, with Paddack, as working together for make sure the 5th spot is covered. It's always good to have depth. But maybe that is too much? 

1) Lopez

2) Playoff level starter via trade

3) Ryan

4) Ober

5) Paddack

6) MLB free agent signing

7) Duran

8) Jax

9) Varland

10) Stewart

11) Thielbar

12) Funderburk

13) Rotating arm from St. Paul

[wabene]

Yes they will not stray from a 5 man rotation. That was shown last year amid all the calls for piggy backing etc. 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

I would imagine they will treat a major league signing, with Paddack, as working together for make sure the 5th spot is covered. It's always good to have depth. But maybe that is too much? 

1) Lopez

2) Playoff level starter via trade

3) Ryan

4) Ober

5) Paddack

6) MLB free agent signing

7) Duran

8) Jax

9) Varland

10) Stewart

11) Thielbar

12) Funderburk

13) Rotating arm from St. Paul

I'm all for depth so am definitely not pushing back on adding that. I just don't know how you convince a major league free agent to come sit in the pen at the start of the year and wait their turn because the Twins were pretty clear they aren't going to roll with a 6 man rotation. It's possible they do some sort of piggy back plan early in the year for Paddack to limit his innings, but I don't see a major league free agent signing up for that role either. 

I think the more likely option is that they push Varland to AAA as the 6th starter, like Ober last year, and sign an Aaron Sanchez type minor league free agent who used to be a major leaguer, but isn't good enough anymore to get a major league deal. I don't see much of a chance that Varland starts the year in the pen. I don't think they'd want to have to stretch him out mid-season instead of having him stretch out in spring. 

[Cory Engelhardt]

That could be. I keep coming back to, they have 4 open 40 man roster spots, and that's before potentially ALSO trading away Polanco or others.

Where are those spots being filled? What positions are taking those roles? My guess is a playoff level starter, at least one other major league pitcher contract (is that a reliever, or is that someone who can start?) Maybe someone who can play CF? Another hitter? 

I can also see a minor league signing, like you mentioned similar to Sanchez. I just think there is more opportunity there for additions outside of payroll concerns. 

[chpettit19]

1 minute ago, Cory Engelhardt said:

That could be. I keep coming back to, they have 4 open 40 man roster spots, and that's before potentially ALSO trading away Polanco or others.

Where are those spots being filled? What positions are taking those roles? My guess is a playoff level starter, at least one other major league pitcher contract (is that a reliever, or is that someone who can start?) Maybe someone who can play CF? Another hitter? 

I can also see a minor league signing, like you mentioned similar to Sanchez. I just think there is more opportunity there for additions outside of payroll concerns. 

I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them go into spring with open 40-man spots. Could be used for waiver claims or snagging guys who get squeezed off 26-mans around the league. 

I wouldn't be surprised by them bringing in a veteran reliever who may be a guy who gets squeezed off their 26-man at the end of spring.  They have a lot of ways they could go. But I don't know that I'd read into the 40-man spots too much.