The Detroit Tigers Will Be the Twins' Biggest Threat to AL Central Supremacy

[Hans Birkeland]

The Detroit Tigers have been waiting on the fruits of their rebuild. Few of their young players have smoothly launched into stardom, but the talent remains there. Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson have shown flashes of brilliance, more blue-chip prospects are on the way, and the new front office led by Scott Harris has some payroll flexibility. Could they put a scare into the Twins next season?

Image courtesy of © David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports.

The Tigers have been a bit of a punchline for a few years, now. Last season’s .481 winning percentage their best since 2016. Despite that improvement, they never threatened the Twins in the American League Central, despite leapfrogging the Guardians to finish in second place, nine games behind Minnesota.

They did win the season series against the Twins, however, going 8-5 behind some opportunistic hitting, baffling starting pitching and a lock-down bullpen. There's an episode of Seinfeld where Jerry discovers that his heavyset nemesis, Newman, once dated the woman Jerry was currently seeing. Not only that, Newman was the one to break up with her.

"What could she see in Newman?" Jerry asks.

"Perhaps there is more to Newman than meets the eye," offers Elaine.

"There's less," is Jerry's retort. But Newman holds a steady job, is a talented poet, has many friends and dislikes Jerry Seinfeld. What's so bad about that?

Maybe that's Detroit Tigers baseball.

There are multiple reasons why they finished six games under .500 last year, but the biggest was a lackluster offense. The campaign saw them post 4.08 runs per game, 25th in the majors. Still, it was an improvement on 2022, when they finished a distant 30th, with 3.55 runs per game.

That number should continue to trend upward. Their best hitter, 23-year-old Riley Greene, had some injuries, but he still posted a 117 OPS+, showing a dynamic combination of power, speed, batting average and playable center-field defense. He strikes out a lot and has had his share of injuries, but he seems likely to torment Central division pitching for years to come.

They also have former No. 1 overall pick, 24-year-old Spencer Torkelson, slowly learning the league and becoming (if not the next Mark Teixeira, as some projected) a decent hitter with power and upside beyond what he has shown. He did hit 31 home runs while playing his home games at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park.

Then there's scrap-heap find Kerry Carpenter, who has a handsome 121 OPS+ his first two years in the majors. He doesn’t offer much defensively and can be streaky at the plate, but his overall body of work points to him being a good five-hole hitter for the foreseeable future.

Detroit's catcher is Jake Rogers, who represents the last chance for Detroit to get anything out of the Justin Verlander trade to Houston six years ago. Fortunately for Detroit, Rogers started to produce in 2023, with 21 home runs, a .224 ISO, decreasing (though still high) strikeout numbers and a solid defensive reputation, at age 28.

Colt Keith, the Tigers' fifth-round pick in 2020, has blossomed into a top-20 global prospect despite questionable defense. Some scouts grade his power as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, and he has hit over .300 in each of his minor-league years. He would figure to debut sometime in 2024. Meanwhile, Rangers rookie and playoff hero Josh Jung happens to have a little brother, Jace, in the Tigers system. The younger Jung projects as a plus offensive second baseman after being drafted 12th overall in 2022 out of Texas Tech, and he also figures to get a chance very soon.

Then there is Javy Baez, who has no idea what he's doing at the plate anymore, but is always a threat to figure it out at any moment. To be clear, this doesn't constitute an amazing lineup, but their ballpark will always suppress counting stats and (as a group) they certainly look more promising than the Royals, White Sox and Guardians.

The pitching is intriguing, as well. Jason Foley is lockdown at the back end of the bullpen, with a 98-MPH turbo sinker he can command, while Alex Lange is pretty unhittable (despite frequent bouts of wildness). Tyler Holton has been nails as a late-inning lefty who can get six or seven outs, which Twins hitters are certainly aware of (against the Twins he pitched 11 ⅔ innings, allowing one run and striking out 16).

On the starting side, lefty Tarik Skubal returned from injury to post a 2.00 FIP in 15 starts, and righty Reese Olson quietly had an excellent rookie year, holding opponents to a .215 batting average with strong peripherals over 103 innings. Former first overall pick (yes, they've got two of them, just like the Twins) Casey Mize is coming back from Tommy John surgery; Matt Manning has shown flashes; and they have top prospects Wilmer Flores and Jackson Jobe waiting in the wings.

In other words, Kenta Maeda may have been the perfect signing for Detroit. If healthy, he stabilizes the middle of their rotation, and if he misses time, it opens up opportunities for some of their young pitching.

They also have an excellent manager, though how much of A.J. Hinch's success was due to the Astros' cheating scandal is unknowable. But he clearly knows how to get his guys to play hard, and in particular, how to attack the Twins on both sides of the ball.

The other potential contender in the Central, the Cleveland Guardians, have arguably the best pitching rotation in the division but remain short on hitting as they pray for the immediate emergence of Kyle Manzardo and Chase DeLauter. And they no longer have the steady hand of Tito Francona piloting the ship. Winning the Draft Lottery was a nice bit of news for them, but it's likely to pay dividends in a few years, rather than immediately. The same can probably be said of Manzardo and DeLauter.

The White Sox are claiming they are in a "retool" mode, rather than undergoing a full rebuild. But whatever they call it, they don't have enough talent to compete at the top of the division, and are allegedly dangling their only good pitcher in Dylan Cease. The Royals have Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino Salvador Perez, and a shrug where their farm system should be.

Meanwhile, while the Baez contract is a regrettable one, the Tigers no longer have to rely on him to anchor the lineup. That responsibility now falls to Torkelson, Greene, and Carpenter, with Jung, Keith, Parker Meadows and Justyn Henry-Malloy all percolating at the top levels of their minor-league system. And with Miguel Cabrera no longer commanding 20 percent of their payroll, a Teoscar Hernandez-type signing would not be out of the question. They may even be a sleeper team for Cody Bellinger. Cleveland and the Twins, with more uncertain payroll situations, can only dream of that type of free-agent pickup.

When competitive, the Tigers have shown they can be aggressive with big-name free agents, and even in the darkest doldrums of their recent dark ages, they spent $217 million on Báez and Eduardo Rodríguez. They currently have only $75.1 million committed to their 2024 payroll, after spending $122 million last year, but have spent nearly $200 million as recently as 2017. Part of that spending spree was related to owner Mike Ilitch's failing health, but they also drew more than 3 million fans per year in those days.

I could see the Tigers getting to 85 wins next year, even without everything breaking right for them. The Twins should have no problem eclipsing that mark on paper, but injuries and regression could make this a race.

What do you think? Are the Tigers a team on the rise, or is Cleveland still the main rival for the Twins in the Central? Sound off in the comments.

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[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think your assessment is pretty accurate. They seem certain to be ahead of the Sox and Royals; and likely the Guardians as well. Hopefully they don’t have one of those “young team gets really hot and overachieves for no understandable reason and wins the division” kind of season.  The Twins will be better on paper; but we have to play those pesky games in the regular season. I do think the Tigers with their young talent will be an increasing threat moving forward, but for now we should be safe. 

[CRF]

The kittys are a legit threat. 

[tony&rodney]

Scrappy at times, dominant in odd stretches, and woeful strings of bad baseball sum up both Detroit and Kansas City. There are series to illustrate the dangers of overlooking either team. The Tigers weren't particularly impressed with the AL Central winners last season, and the Royals put away the Astros in five out of six games on two consecutive weekends in September when the mighty Astros were struggling to make the playoffs.

The Tigers could surpass the Twins next season in the much maligned AL Central Division. The lengthy season protects the Twins from a chaotic Royals roster, but their unpredictable play makes for uncomfortable matches. The White Sox are recovering from a bad dream where it was imagined that Tony La Russo was their manager, a fate no swarm of players should need suffer. The recovery will take time as all traumas require healing. Cleveland is a mystery, where the ghosts of legends and disco night remain. Talent unpolished and mismatched should protect the Twins from the Guardians.

Cold weather and short days make us crazy for a select deal or two to complete the Twins roster, which might spare us a scenario where Jackson Holliday ruins our right to a throne in late September. Worry away.

[chpettit19]

If I were a betting man I'd pick Detroit to finish at least 2nd in the division as of today. Will be interesting to see what they do this offseason as a few big swings that connect could relatively easily push them right up next to the Twins, or even ahead. 2 young cores that both orgs hope are coming together in 2024 with a few more pieces on the way. Pretty similar clubs outside a few extra proven pieces on the Twins side. 

I fully expect the central to continue to be a horrid division overall, and 87 wins may get you the division title again in 2024, but Detroit is coming. Twins can't get too complacent. I'm not really worried about KC or CHW, even though stranger things have happened than teams like that suddenly coming alive for a season. But on paper there should be a big enough gap that even a 1 year surge from them isn't enough to pass the Tigers and Twins. Cleveland is so hard to judge every year. You expect them to always have pitching at this point, but can they continue to waste it year after year and really never run out as the "veterans" move on/get traded? Their offense is never scary. I know some fans love their "never strike out!" approach, but it leads to terrible contact, and sub-par run scoring totals. They're certainly capable of having their pitching dominate and doing just enough on offense during a given year to be a threat, but I don't see them as all that likely to hit 90 wins or anything.

I do think Detroit, Cleveland, and Minnesota are all close enough that the moves made this offseason could really swing who the favorites are going into 2024. I wouldn't bet on any of the central teams winning 90 games, but if all 3 of those teams end up between 80 and 87 wins I wouldn't be surprised. And over 162 games having 3 teams within 7 games of each other is an awfully tight window.

[Doctor Wu]

Good analysis. The Tigers seem to be a much improved team, combining the fruits of their farm system along with savvy trades and free agent signings. A few things surprised me: I had no idea who Jake Rogers was, or that he had hit 21 homers last year. I need to pay more attention to the box scores! I think Skubal is going to be a beast in their starting rotation, plus they also have ex-Twin Sawyer Gipson-Long, who could end up being in the rotation next season too. 

[4twinsJA]

Signing Maeda is definitely not a rebuilding move. Tigers must feel they are able to contend this year.

[Brian Kingfield]

As someone who has been known to shoehorn a Seinfeld reference into a conversation, this was one shoehorned Seinfeld reference 😂

Great article. Nice to learn a bit more about some of our foes.

[Trov]

I agree Detroit looks to be on the move, but we thought that last year and they still faltered.  If their FO can stop making bad moves, I know it is a new FO so the old track record of bad contracts, and bad trades may be behind them. 

[Doctor Gast]

With Hinch (IMO still is a good coach) who finally has something to work with will improve DET's record while the departure of Francona DET will become our new competitor. I was thinking maybe this division won't be a cake walk.

[Craig Arko]

Seems right.

[TopGunn#22]

I've been mentioning that Detroit is getting close to getting over the hump and actually being a contender in the Central.  I like their young hitting a lot, but it's their young pitching that I think will make the difference.  Having a healthy Skubal all season as well as Casey Mize is a key.  Throw Matt Manning in there and they're off to the races.

But I still view Cleveland as the #1 competitor for the Twins, even with Francona's retirement.  They suffered so many pitching injuries last year and STILL came up with 3 young guys that did very well.  They have enough depth and talent to trade Shane Bieber and still have an excellent staff.  Trading Bieber for Tyler O'Neill and signing Teo Hernandez would give them 2 corner OF who could hit 30 HR.  Pair that with Ramirez, Kwan and Gimenez and that might be just enough.

The questions Cleveland has are these:  Are they REALLY going to trade Clase?  He's a difference maker.  A trade of Clase sends shock waves through their bullpen.  No matter how well their SP do, their pen would cost them.  Also, what version of Tristen McKenzie does Cleveland get?  If he's "prime McKenzie" they will be tough.  Any version less and their ability to contend diminishes.  

But Cleveland and the Tigers are clearly the competition.  The Royals and White Sox are horrible.  It is not a given the Twins will successfully defend their division crown.  Every off season is crucial for every team.  This is a particularly crucial off season for the Twins because, while we won the division last year, we have some significant holes to fill and questions to be answered all under a budget cutting, austerity imposing strategy. 

It's Wednesday of the Winter Meetings and there hasn't really been anything "major" that has gone down.  That should change within the next 24-48 hours.  What are the Twins going to do? 

[Blyleven2011]

Sometimes first year managers  , the players  play really hard to impress and win the division  , I've seen it happen many times so Cleveland is a small threat ...

Hinch and his Detroit players are going in the right direction but I think they are still at least one more year from challenging for the division  , we'll see ... 

White Sox retooling  , Kansas city  taking there own sweet time to get it together  ...

On paper  we are good to defend our division title , but as we sit now we have some openings that need addressing ...

As most believe  it is through a trade we will add these needs  , sure hope they're quality , we don't need another experience with  someone who might turn there season around  ...

[tarheeltwinsfan]

Hello Newman ! Hello Jerry !

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, TopGunn#22 said:

I've been mentioning that Detroit is getting close to getting over the hump and actually being a contender in the Central.  I like their young hitting a lot, but it's their young pitching that I think will make the difference.  Having a healthy Skubal all season as well as Casey Mize is a key.  Throw Matt Manning in there and they're off to the races.

But I still view Cleveland as the #1 competitor for the Twins, even with Francona's retirement.  They suffered so many pitching injuries last year and STILL came up with 3 young guys that did very well.  They have enough depth and talent to trade Shane Bieber and still have an excellent staff.  Trading Bieber for Tyler O'Neill and signing Teo Hernandez would give them 2 corner OF who could hit 30 HR.  Pair that with Ramirez, Kwan and Gimenez and that might be just enough.

The questions Cleveland has are these:  Are they REALLY going to trade Clase?  He's a difference maker.  A trade of Clase sends shock waves through their bullpen.  No matter how well their SP do, their pen would cost them.  Also, what version of Tristen McKenzie does Cleveland get?  If he's "prime McKenzie" they will be tough.  Any version less and their ability to contend diminishes.  

But Cleveland and the Tigers are clearly the competition.  The Royals and White Sox are horrible.  It is not a given the Twins will successfully defend their division crown.  Every off season is crucial for every team.  This is a particularly crucial off season for the Twins because, while we won the division last year, we have some significant holes to fill and questions to be answered all under a budget cutting, austerity imposing strategy. 

It's Wednesday of the Winter Meetings and there hasn't really been anything "major" that has gone down.  That should change within the next 24-48 hours.  What are the Twins going to do? 

O’Neill is the Cardinals 5th outfielder - essentially a cast-off for a team that won about 70 games - he hit .231 with 9 HR in 238 AB’s…….Teoscar Hernandez either lead the AL or was in top 3 in strikeouts - 211 K’s & 26 HR…….if Joey Gallo got as many AB’s he would hit 30 HR……….despite the pundits pushing him as a good player, he’s still not very attractive to me……., If the Guardians discard Kwan for one of those guys I’d be giddy.

Clase seems to be solid as a closer - an All-Star X 2 - but he has lead the AL in saves the last 2 years & his value is probably at a career Maximum …….he blew a bunch of save opportunities this past year & went 3-9 W/L. That’s 12 games he gave up runs in and allowed them to be tied, best case, in the wins or he got behind in the losses. Somewhat volatile.

Cleveland needs some offensive help from youth Infielders to supplement the two brothers at 1B & Catcher as well as the 3rd baseman. RF, as you mentioned, is a weak spot. Their pitching will bounce back with some health & their youngest guys gaining experience.

[rv78]

If only they played games on paper. If the Twins don't make at least 2 significant moves, a #2 starter and a good CF that can play everyday, Detroit will give them all they can handle and I wouldn't bet against them to win the division. The X factor is the Manager. One knows how to manage and the Rocco over-manages.

[DJL44]

On 12/6/2023 at 9:22 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

Cleveland and the Tigers are clearly the competition.

I agree. It is still probably the weakest competition of any division in baseball.