Complete 2024 Free Agent List, & One Pitcher To Target for 2025

[Brock Beauchamp]

Now that we're past non-tender day, the list of available free agents is as robust as it will be this offseason.

It appears the Twins are going to be working with little money this offseason so the top names are likely off-limits. But yesterday, the Brewers were unable to trade or come to a longer-term agreement with starting pitcher Brandon Woodruff. This is a perfect Falvey moment. Woodruff will likely not pitch in 2024 after undergoing shoulder surgery. He'll need a place to rehab and return in 2025.

Woodruff is an ace pitcher nearly on par with Corbin Burnes. If he can recover from shoulder surgery, a one-year make-good deal aligns perfectly with the Twins' interests.

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[DJL44]

Shoulder surgery is a whole lot riskier than elbow ligament replacement with much more risk of a poor outcome.

[Brock Beauchamp]

19 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Shoulder surgery is a whole lot riskier than elbow ligament replacement with much more risk of a poor outcome.

Absolutely but Woodruff's upside is ace-level. It's a gamble but IMO a good one.

[DJL44]

16 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Absolutely but Woodruff's upside is ace-level. It's a gamble but IMO a good one.

So, why would Woodruff pick the Twins and not the Dodgers?

[stringer bell]

Isn't the projection that the Twins will have large increases (López, player entering arb years) in 2025? They will still have the Buxton and Correa contracts, which take up about 40% of payroll right now. I'm not sure if they can do a contract for either Woodruff or Mahle as they did for Pineda and Paddack.

[Brock Beauchamp]

2 hours ago, DJL44 said:

So, why would Woodruff pick the Twins and not the Dodgers?

The same reason Carlos Correa or Josh Donaldson chose the Twins. They offer the best package.

[DJL44]

1 hour ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

The same reason Carlos Correa or Josh Donaldson chose the Twins. They offer the best package.

When they negotiated with Paddack he was still under team control. Woodruff is a free agent and he grew up in Mississippi. I doubt the Twins will offer the most attractive package.

[Brock Beauchamp]

40 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

When they negotiated with Paddack he was still under team control. Woodruff is a free agent and he grew up in Mississippi. I doubt the Twins will offer the most attractive package.

I also doubt they will but they certainly can if they want to.

Michael Pineda was a free agent and they signed him to a similar deal.

[jorgenswest]

I think this is the same surgery as Johan Santana at about same age. Johan did return after a year off. He pitched poorly and retired. Rich Harden tried to make a comeback with the Twins following surgery but did not make it back to the majors. Dallas Braden did not return to the major leagues. Chris Young did return and was an average starter by ERA the first year and better than average year the second year after return.

There are teams that can afford to risk some of their payroll of Woodruff. Is it a risk the Twins should take? Will it be 2026 before he is fully back?

 

[Linus]

It’s ironic that Tommy John is so prevalent yet shoulder injuries seem to be the death blow to pitchers. Seems like very few make successful returns after serious shoulder problems. That’s why I want no part of Tyler Mahle. It’s not the TJ it was the shoulder problems he had before that. 

[tony&rodney]

Shoulder surgery? Pretty much nobody returns from a bum shoulder to once again become a good MLB pitcher. About the only guy that I can remember is Michael Pineda. He had mixed results and did not last long. Perhaps someone else can name other pitchers who had major should surgery and returned as effective MLB pitchers. BTW, this is another reason to stay far away from Mahle. Mahle went down with an elbow last Spring and had Tommy John surgery. Remember though that he was missing games and being pulled due to a bum shoulder injury for several years on and off before his elbow barked.. Serious shoulder injuries are death to pitchers.

[jorgenswest]

Julio Urias had the surgery when he was 20. He had started 15 games (plus 7 in the minors) for the Dodgers in his age 19 season. He was 24 before he started more than 10 games again and he has had success.

Woodruff and the other pitchers I named above had surgery in their early 30s. Urias is probably not a good comp to rely on. He had surgery in 2017 and it was 2021 before his major league strikeout rate returned to his pre surgery level as a starter.

[Dave The Dastardly]

Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

[old nurse]

Why a would a player not sign with a big market team is because living in a big market is not their idea of living.  There have been numerous players whose performance went down in New York.  

[Vanimal46]

Aaron Nola is the first to get the bag. 7 years $170-175 million re-signing with the Phillies. 

[MABB1959]

same old, same old.  Every year we watch other teams get great signings and when it is all picked over then they take a stab.  Kind of like the shelves of Target on Christmas Eve.

[TwinsDr2021]

On 11/18/2023 at 5:08 PM, jorgenswest said:

I think this is the same surgery as Johan Santana at about same age. Johan did return after a year off. He pitched poorly and retired. Rich Harden tried to make a comeback with the Twins following surgery but did not make it back to the majors. Dallas Braden did not return to the major leagues. Chris Young did return and was an average starter by ERA the first year and better than average year the second year after return.

There are teams that can afford to risk some of their payroll of Woodruff. Is it a risk the Twins should take? Will it be 2026 before he is fully back?

 

Santana didn't really pitch poorly. he was actually really, really good going into July 6-4 with a no hitter and a 2.76 ERA. Then the wheels fell off in his last 5 starts 33 runs in his last 5 starts.

I am pretty sure NO team would abuse a pitcher like the Mets did with him after a year off. Averaging 97 pitches per start with 134 in his no hitter, and averaging over 6 innings per start. I mean I can't imagine any starter pitcher averaging that any more.

There is good reason to be careful what you could expect the second year though.

[JD-TWINS]

On 11/18/2023 at 1:48 PM, DJL44 said:

When they negotiated with Paddack he was still under team control. Woodruff is a free agent and he grew up in Mississippi. I doubt the Twins will offer the most attractive package.

Who is the clear cut team aligned with kids from Mississippi??

I don’t like the risk but really don’t like the zero contribution in ‘24!