The Clock Has Struck Midnight for Trevor Larnach

[Doctor Evil]

I would bundle the subject of this well written article with Alex Kiriloff.

[Fat Calvin]

I don't think we could get much for Larnarch.  And I really liked what I saw in his second half surge in St. Paul.  I think we should hold onto him.  He's never really gotten an extended chance to prove himself.  If we let him go for peanuts, I think we'd regret it.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, JD-TWINS said:

Agree with the overview of Larnach - the desire to give him a chance - couldn’t play him at 1B ahead of Gallo (not an option) late ‘23 - Gordon should maybe be offered up first….etc.

To me, heavy watcher of MLB Network ….skimmer of The Athletic…….every day reader of TD Forum, there’s no obvious trade partners for pitching ……..who wants to trade proven starters or arms in general???? …….NOBODY, except maybe the Brewers.

My slant is the following:

Either Miranda or Larnach (1 of them minimum) has a chance to be on an MLB roster for a number of years - maybe both. Maybe not stars but functional, depth pieces at a minimum - reasonable thought?

Winder (when healthy was on a Bailey Ober level in ‘22) Moran - Sands (1 of them minimum) have a real chance at an MLB roster year in & year out - maybe 2 of the 3 - reasonable thought?

Rodriguez our 20 year old power hitting CF…..a highly regarded prospect with a nice upside.

Jorge Polanco - would rank #1 or #2 Free Agent 2B available IF a FA. Solid D & switch hitter with Pop, when healthy……$10.5M salary  comes with him.

We trade these 7 guys to Milwaukee for Corbin Burnes & Devin Williams……one year rental on Burnes & Williams for a couple years. Our staff becomes elite immediately!

Brewers shed salary and start their rebuild with 6 guys under team control for a handful of years……..the assumption is they do not want Polanco’s salary so they investigate a separate trade partner for Polanco to get a couple of prospects to help their rebuild.

Can others out there get behind this thinking? Maybe we alter it a guy but the gist is we believe in our offense and with these two guys  totaling $18-$22M total (saved $10.5M with Polanco move & have now to spend) we have the best set-up guy in the game, in Williams, to go with our best closer in the game, Duran. We then have Stewart - Jax - Varland - Funderburk - Balazovic/Alcala - Thielbar to go along with Williams & Duran.

Corbin Burnes added to our rotation along with Chris Paddack gets us back, at a minimum, to where we were with Gray & Maeda in ‘23!!

Best staff in the game and we don’t alter our core with Polanco, being the only real contributor being moved, and Julien/Farmer platoon at 2B to take up the slack.

They're not trading both those players in 1 trade and only getting 1 top 100 prospect back. They could get 2 top 100 prospects for Burnes alone. Piling a bunch of random AAAA guys already in their mid-20s together doesn't get deals done.

And that's a +5 to their 40-man roster. I don't know where they're at with their 40-man, but I'm guessing they're not looking to add 5 players of that caliber to their 40-man in order to move maybe their 2 best players.

Edit: looks like they're at 37 guys. So to do that trade they'd also have to DFA 2 guys. Never happening.

[JD-TWINS]

1 minute ago, chpettit19 said:

They're not trading both those players in 1 trade and only getting 1 top 100 prospect back. They could get 2 top 100 prospects for Burnes alone. Piling a bunch of random AAAA guys already in their mid-20s together doesn't get deals done.

Winder - Polanco - Rodriguez are all valued players.

Maybe it’s Moran and one of our Top arms from the Farm?

Larnach & Miranda are 2 guys that 1/2 of TD think are going to be revived in ‘24 in the Twins line-up……….I don’t necessarily agree.

Brewers need guys that can play - another one or two with upside (agreed) and they need to dump salary. We can afford to give up an arm from the farm along with Rodriguez.

As I said - my assumption is they trade Polanco to another contending organization for another prospect.

Sort out any 4 of these guys, along with Polanco for either Burnes or Williams.

Williams may be the better deal - a little longer control - he’s a lights out reliever in either the 8th or the 9th…….allows Varland to get his wish and maintain his spot in the rotation.

[chpettit19]

11 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

Winder - Polanco - Rodriguez are all valued players.

Maybe it’s Moran and one of our Top arms from the Farm?

Larnach & Miranda are 2 guys that 1/2 of TD think are going to be revived in ‘24 in the Twins line-up……….I don’t necessarily agree.

Brewers need guys that can play - another one or two with upside (agreed) and they need to dump salary. We can afford to give up an arm from the farm along with Rodriguez.

As I said - my assumption is they trade Polanco to another contending organization for another prospect.

Sort out any 4 of these guys, along with Polanco for either Burnes or Williams.

Williams may be the better deal - a little longer control - he’s a lights out reliever in either the 8th or the 9th…….allows Varland to get his wish and maintain his spot in the rotation.

Polanco has value to a contender who needs a 2B, yes. ERod has value to anyone, yes. The rest of those guys are in their mid- to late-20s and can't crack the Twins starting rotation or lineup. They do not have that kind of trade value at all. Josh Winder is 27 years old and never been close to being an MLB starter, and couldn't even stick in the pen last year. 

The idea that you can package a bunch of guys who are closer to being DFA'd than making the Twins opening day roster in 2024 and get back a Cy Young candidate or elite closer is way out there. Sure, maybe they'd want to bring in a 3rd team to take Polanco and get another top 100 prospect to go along with ERod, but I doubt Polanco brings back a top 100 prospect, and adding a 3rd team makes any deal exponentially harder to pull off.

Larnach, Miranda, Moran, Winder, and Sands don't bring back anything more than a low level flier, if that. You can't turn the back end of the Twins 40-man into elite players just by throwing a bunch of them together. They're not worth that.

[darin617]

I can see it both ways. You could trade him now in a package but you won't be getting the best value now.

Or they could just play him in St Paul and see if he can figure it out and then they can either package him then or promote him.  But, doing this could lose any possible return if he doesn't play well.

[JD-TWINS]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Polanco has value to a contender who needs a 2B, yes. ERod has value to anyone, yes. The rest of those guys are in their mid- to late-20s and can't crack the Twins starting rotation or lineup. They do not have that kind of trade value at all. Josh Winder is 27 years old and never been close to being an MLB starter, and couldn't even stick in the pen last year. 

The idea that you can package a bunch of guys who are closer to being DFA'd than making the Twins opening day roster in 2024 and get back a Cy Young candidate or elite closer is way out there. Sure, maybe they'd want to bring in a 3rd team to take Polanco and get another top 100 prospect to go along with ERod, but I doubt Polanco brings back a top 100 prospect, and adding a 3rd team makes any deal exponentially harder to pull off.

Larnach, Miranda, Moran, Winder, and Sands don't bring back anything more than a low level flier, if that. You can't turn the back end of the Twins 40-man into elite players just by throwing a bunch of them together. They're not worth that.

“….add an arm from the Farm” (maybe Festa?) ……along with Rodriguez and Winder & Larnach……I think that’s a real possibility (as good as they might be offered) for Williams. How many teams are going to go that hard for a reliever? It would be a hell of a risk for Twins!

Polanco - Moran to a contender for a prospect & deal prospect & Henriquez to Milwaukee and try to get both arms from them. It’s a starting point.

Either guy would elevate Twins big time in ‘24!

We find out if they really want to move Williams and/or Burnes or if they are just talking.

[chpettit19]

43 minutes ago, JD-TWINS said:

“….add an arm from the Farm” (maybe Festa?) ……along with Rodriguez and Winder & Larnach……I think that’s a real possibility (as good as they might be offered) for Williams. How many teams are going to go that hard for a reliever? It would be a hell of a risk for Twins!

Polanco - Moran to a contender for a prospect & deal prospect & Henriquez to Milwaukee and try to get both arms from them. It’s a starting point.

Either guy would elevate Twins big time in ‘24!

We find out if they really want to move Williams and/or Burnes or if they are just talking.

Aren't you the one on these boards using games played and batting average to claim Kyle Farmer is the better option to have over Jorge Polanco? Farmer was gotten for Casey Legumina last year, but now you think Polanco and a guy that can't stay on the Twins roster is bringing back a prospect good enough to add to Ronny Henriquez (another random guy at the back of the Twins 40-man roster) to help boost a package that includes 1 top 100 prospect (ERod), a good not great pitching prospect (Festa), and two 27 year old (for the 2024 season) AAAA players with 1 option left (Winder and Larnach) to bring back a Cy Young candidate type starter, and an elite closer? Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree that the Brewers would have any interest in that package.

Again, Corbin Burnes by himself can bring back 2 top 100 prospects. The Brewers have Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer already on their roster (I won't include Yelich cuz I'm sure you'll just say they'll trade him, too) who are younger, and more valuable than Larnach. Their top prospect is in the conversation for best prospect in baseball, is younger, and closer to the majors than ERod while playing the same position. Would they take ERod? Of course, but Larnach is not a boost to that package when adding ERod to their roster would give them 5 more valuable, younger OF options immediately. With Yelich and Taylor also still on the roster.

The Brewers won more games than the Twins last year, they're not interested in the scraps from the Twins 40-man in return for 2 of their 3 most valuable trade options. That package could be beat in a second by any other contender. They're not trading both those guys in 1 deal unless you're throwing all of ERod, Jenkins, and Lee plus others at them. It'd take 2 of those guys to get Burnes alone, let alone Williams with him. You may be able to get Williams alone for Erod, Festa, plus though. That I can agree with.

[SteveLV]

Larnach needs to stay healthy and hit breaking balls more consistently.  He also needs the opportunity to do so.  Right now, he appears blocked, but we are months away from opening day; injuries/trades/signings can all change that.

Can trade him now, likely trading at low value.

[PatG]

Not quite midnight....

New Analytical Parameter:  "RBI per At Bat",

Larnach is King, not even close.

Introduce Larnach to the term ".300 hitter", have Larnach play "pepper" for an hour a day using only curve balls

[Trov]

Larnach has little value in trade.  He has never taken off as a hitter, plays corner OF, a position that is filled easy, is not elite at any one thing.  Most teams know he is 4th OF on our list at best, and we have more depth behind him in coming years.  I could see him as part of a package, but if he is traded straight up it will not be for anything of super value. 

[saviking]

21 hours ago, Nashvilletwin said:

The underlying gist of this article is that Larnach has not fulfilled his promise and doesn’t look to be part of the Twins’ plans for the future.

Assuming this is correct (and I for one am not there yet), the bigger questions are 1) how/why did this happen and 2) how do we get better at improving the results of our solid minor league prospects transitioning into the bigs?

Larnach is not the first. There are many others.  Among the current crop, Miranda and, to a lesser extent, Kiriloff are similar examples.  How do we make sure Lewis, Julien, Wallner and Martin don’t fall into this category? Why did Steer, CES and Rooker, three of our “less heralded” prospects we traded instead of Miranda and Larnach, have such a successful transition? Sure we’ve had successes over the years, but a high success rate in the transition has to be the hallmark of any small to mid market team hoping to compete.

With the batch of young talent transitioning in this year and over the following two seasons, one would think that substantial thought, data analysis, and resources would be devoted to this issue/opportunity.

The biggest travesty last year was to stick with Gallo over Larnach. This was his prove it year and it got short circuited. Everyone knows it takes 1000 abates or so to adapt to major league caliber pitching. I think the Twins gave up on him too early. 

The ONLY reason I would want the Twins to trade Larnach would be to give Larnach a change to prove himself in the majors. But I would prefer we give him a real shot in the bigs if we trade Kepler. 

[Jeff K]

18 hours ago, Cris E said:

So explain to me how the middle chunk of this essay where he returned to St Paul, discovered how to hit breaking stuff and regained his power, and finally displayed this in his limited opportunities in Sept, logically leads to Larnach becoming a disposable fourth outfielder.  That's more than a little inconsistent.

You keep him and let him build back some value. You wait to see if Wallner stays strong or goes all Miranda in his sophomore year. You see if Kepler is still here for April 1. Unless a team comes calling for Larnach with flowers and chocolates there's no reason for low value dumping like this; he's got an option and there's room on the roster to wait. 

EDIT:  Trade Kepler now when everyone remembers his last two months rather than the thirty that preceded them.

 

 

100% agree!

[Otaknam]

I doubt Polanco and Larnach could be bundled in a trade for a solid starter, as has been suggested. Polanco would interest a well constructed team that needs a offensive second baseman to complete their lineup. Larnach would draw interest from teams watching their bottom line, who are willing to see if Larnach can make consistent contact and still hit for power. He does have significant power potential.

[JD-TWINS]

10 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Aren't you the one on these boards using games played and batting average to claim Kyle Farmer is the better option to have over Jorge Polanco? Farmer was gotten for Casey Legumina last year, but now you think Polanco and a guy that can't stay on the Twins roster is bringing back a prospect good enough to add to Ronny Henriquez (another random guy at the back of the Twins 40-man roster) to help boost a package that includes 1 top 100 prospect (ERod), a good not great pitching prospect (Festa), and two 27 year old (for the 2024 season) AAAA players with 1 option left (Winder and Larnach) to bring back a Cy Young candidate type starter, and an elite closer? Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree that the Brewers would have any interest in that package.

Again, Corbin Burnes by himself can bring back 2 top 100 prospects. The Brewers have Frelick, Mitchell, and Wiemer already on their roster (I won't include Yelich cuz I'm sure you'll just say they'll trade him, too) who are younger, and more valuable than Larnach. Their top prospect is in the conversation for best prospect in baseball, is younger, and closer to the majors than ERod while playing the same position. Would they take ERod? Of course, but Larnach is not a boost to that package when adding ERod to their roster would give them 5 more valuable, younger OF options immediately. With Yelich and Taylor also still on the roster.

The Brewers won more games than the Twins last year, they're not interested in the scraps from the Twins 40-man in return for 2 of their 3 most valuable trade options. That package could be beat in a second by any other contender. They're not trading both those guys in 1 deal unless you're throwing all of ERod, Jenkins, and Lee plus others at them. It'd take 2 of those guys to get Burnes alone, let alone Williams with him. You may be able to get Williams alone for Erod, Festa, plus though. That I can agree with.

So after all the fury, your last 2 sentences are my point.

I do know the Brewers are rebuilding so, though I don’t have their list of prospects & 40 man memorized, they need somebody in return for these 2 guys at some position. We have prospects at many positions that aren’t Lee & Jenkins. Maybe not good enough but worth a conversation here.

The trading partner with the Brewers has some leverage as Burnes goes away for free at end of the season - yes, they’ll get other offers but I’m assuming the big boys with $$ wait til the deadline or after the season to try & get him for less. Do the Brewers want to spend $6.5M to keep him til the deadline or do they just move on? Would assume there’s still a little angst from Burnes over last year’s arbitration “cheapness” shown by the Brewers?!!?

I like Williams just as much - just changes Varland’s focus & we improve.

I agree, we disagree.

[Finlander]

1 hour ago, Otaknam said:

I doubt Polanco and Larnach could be bundled in a trade for a solid starter, as has been suggested. Polanco would interest a well constructed team that needs a offensive second baseman to complete their lineup. Larnach would draw interest from teams watching their bottom line, who are willing to see if Larnach can make consistent contact and still hit for power. He does have significant power potential.

With Larnach's history at Oregon, I think Seattle, a contending team with available pitching and a need for a 2B upgrade, could be a good match for a trade package that included him and Polanco. 

[mnfireman]

2 hours ago, saviking said:

The biggest travesty last year was to stick with Gallo over Larnach. This was his prove it year and it got short circuited.  

Agree 100%. 

[specialiststeve]

As stated, he has an option left so no clock strikes 12 quite yet. 

He started to figure it out a bit this year then got dinged. Would be smart to move Kepler and give Larnach the full-time gig to see if he can or cannot take the bull by the horns. Still young and talented... 188 games is NOTHING in the scheme of things. Especially when you consider not playing every day which makes a huge difference. Taking those lumps is part of the process that all players go through.... some figure it out some don't but do think he should be given this year to see if he can be part of the future. 

[jmlease1]

2 hours ago, saviking said:

The biggest travesty last year was to stick with Gallo over Larnach. This was his prove it year and it got short circuited. Everyone knows it takes 1000 abates or so to adapt to major league caliber pitching. I think the Twins gave up on him too early. 

The ONLY reason I would want the Twins to trade Larnach would be to give Larnach a change to prove himself in the majors. But I would prefer we give him a real shot in the bigs if we trade Kepler. 

I don't entirely disagree, but by the time Larnach really got himself back on track, Kepler had also gotten himself back on track and Wallner was getting the job done in the other corner, so there really wasn't a spot for Larnach to play very often let alone every day. I too would have moved on from Gallo sooner, but Gallo barely played in the OF in August  when he did play so it's not like he was blocking Larnach at that point. Larnach finished the season really strong but wasn't exactly lighting it up in June-Aug (10 hrs and 9 2Bs total in 3 months, mostly playing in the International League? not exactly the kind of production you need if you're also hitting .225)

I thought Larnach didn't have an option left, so if he does I'm happy to keep him on the 40-man and see if his stock can improve and/or he carves out a role on the team. If there's an injury to a corner OF/DH, he looks like the first call if he's performing well in AAA. If there's no space and he's hitting, he can get dealt at the deadline to fill a gap or as part of a package. No reason to make the call on him when his stock is low and there's no need to move him (there's room on the 40-man).

The bigger issue is a guy like Nick Gordon, who is also left-handed, also best suited to a corner OF role from a defensive standpoint, had a rough year in 2023, and IS out of options. He's the guy who looks to be the odd-man out and you hope you can move him for something rather than just have to cut him and hope he passes through waivers (which he probably won't; someone will take a chance on him, especially if they're a bad team like the A's were with Rooker). because just like there's no room for Larnach right now in MLB if everyone comes back and everyone is healthy, there's no room for Gordon either.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

On 11/14/2023 at 11:48 AM, chpettit19 said:

Where is this "surplus" of corner outfielders? With all the surplus on this roster that's talked about on almost every thread on TD it's crazy that they only won 87 games last year, and we shouldn't have any problem replacing Gray through trade with all these high value trade guys we have that aren't needed anymore.

I only think he's "surplus" because I don't think that he's the one to put out there every day.  You're correct.  The Twins don't have a bunch of guys knocking down the door yet, but at this point, I'd rather have Castro in LF daily than Larnach, so it's probably time to cut bait and give the guy a chance to go somewhere else.  Maybe down the road E-Rod and Jenkins are a part of the mix, but they have more development ahead of them before they get to the majors.

I think next year's outfield is Kepler, Wallner, and somebody (certainly not Larnach) in CF with Castro as the #4.  That CF'er could be Austin Martin, but I'm guessing not right away.  Buxton is the biggest question mark, and Larnach's presence doesn't solve that issue.  IF the Twins think that Buxton is an outfielder next year, then they should put him out there and see what happens with Martin as the backup plan.  If they don't think that (ARGH!), they need to sign a guy like Michael A Taylor. . . Hey! There's an idea!

[chpettit19]

13 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I only think he's "surplus" because I don't think that he's the one to put out there every day.  You're correct.  The Twins don't have a bunch of guys knocking down the door yet, but at this point, I'd rather have Castro in LF daily than Larnach, so it's probably time to cut bait and give the guy a chance to go somewhere else.  Maybe down the road E-Rod and Jenkins are a part of the mix, but they have more development ahead of them before they get to the majors.

I think next year's outfield is Kepler, Wallner, and somebody (certainly not Larnach) in CF with Castro as the #4.  That CF'er could be Austin Martin, but I'm guessing not right away.  Buxton is the biggest question mark, and Larnach's presence doesn't solve that issue.  IF the Twins think that Buxton is an outfielder next year, then they should put him out there and see what happens with Martin as the backup plan.  If they don't think that (ARGH!), they need to sign a guy like Michael A Taylor. . . Hey! There's an idea!

Yeah, the world of pro sports isn't really the world where people "cut bait and give the guy a chance to go somewhere else." And I'll disagree that Castro should be in any spot "daily." He's not good enough for that. Larnach is still a reasonable enough guy to have in AAA to start the year to see how Wallner and Kepler do out of the gate. He has an option left so I don't see them just DFAing him. After this year I'd be awfully surprised if he's on the 40-man if he hasn't established himself as an option to replace Kepler (in LF while Wallner would shift to RF) in 2025 (obviously we hope ERod is also in the running for that job), though.

Overall I just don't see "surplus" because surplus means you have too much of what you need. What the Twins need is talent, not guys who happen to play the same spots, but none are talented enough. I don't see a talent surplus. But I know others do. I'm just not as high on the prospects as others. Which is totally fine.

[Shaitan]

It's strange to me how many people value AAA stats more than MLB stats.

[PatPfund]

I think the OP is essentially correct; 2023 was Larnach's big chance, he started off well, then pitchers figured out that he couldn't hit breaking stuff, and he had such a hard time with a stiff diet of curves that he richly earned a trip back to the minors. Gallo didn't block Larnach, they thrived at pretty much the same time, carrying the Twins offense early on. Gallo blocked Wallner, keeping him in the minors LOOOOOOONG after it was clear he belonged on the Twins, and as someone else noted, when Wallner locked down a spot, and MAT was holding CF, and Kepler caught fire, there wasn't room any more for Larnach (or really Gallo, either). I don't think Larnach has major trade value; probably pretty similar to Rooker (an add-on to a trade dominated by other players. 

But I also don't see any reason why the team would trade him; I just think the bloom is off this rose (Trevor should now be in the prime of his career, not still trying to lock down a spot), and I think he is solidly behind Wallner and Kepler in the corners, but not so far you wouldn't keep him as depth. (If I were him, I'd be spending all offseason hitting curveballs, and maybe practicing some at 1B. For either the Twins, or someone else.)