John Bonnes’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint

[John Bonnes]

• C: Christian Vazquez ($10.00M)
• 1B: Alex Kirilloff ($1.70M)
• 2B: Jorge Polanco ($10.50M)
• 3B: Royce Lewis ($0.75M)
• SS: Carlos Correa ($33.33M)
• LF: Matt Wallner ($0.75M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Max Kepler ($10.00M)
• DH: Edouard Julien ($0.75M)
• 4th OF: Willi Castro ($3.20M)
• Utility: Jose Miranda ($0.75M)
• Utility: Kyle Farmer ($6.60M)
• Backup C: Ryan Jeffers ($2.30M)
• SP1: Pablo Lopez ($8.25M)
• SP2: Joe Ryan ($0.75M)
• SP3: Bailey Ober ($0.75M)
• SP4: Chris Paddack ($2.53M)
• SP5: Louie Varland ($0.75M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($0.75M)
• RP: Brock Stewart ($0.75M)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($0.75M)
• RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M)
• RP: Caleb Thielbar ($3.00M)
• RP: Cole Sands ($0.75M)
• RP: Jovani Moran ($0.75M)
• RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.75M)

Payroll is 21.89% under budget

[DJL44]

Won't be much to write about on Twins Daily if that's how the offseason works out.

[4twinsJA]

That sets the floor of the Twins offseason, hopefully FO can improve on that.

[DocBauer]

So $117M to begin with, if my math is correct. That leaves $33M to play with if the payroll stays at $150M and nobody off of the list above is traded. I've seen the final 2023 Twins payroll varying from $155-159M just depending on what site you look at. So if the 2024 payroll was a firm $150M, that would seem to be a slight cut from 2023.

$33M is enough for a single, front line FA SP and then one decent position player/bat, but doubtful a star.

Moving on from Farmer...though I like him a lot...frees up another $6.6M to help add a better position player.

A trade for a SP probably involves at least 1 player on the list above, which frees up some $, and probably brings in a player costing less $ than a FA.

The Twins don't have a huge stack of $ to work with, relatively speaking, but there is room to maneuver and add to and tweak the roster.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

I am not sold that is a playoff roster, don't see much depth besides Lee there, But it is a good start

[LA Vikes Fan]

I hope you're wrong on the roster because that group looks one starter in the #2-#3 range and at least 2 relievers short of being competitive in the deep playoff run sense. The good news is that you still have $33m to spend if we assume a $150m payroll. I accept your lineup construction as the right one, but tweak the pitching as follows:

(1) Sign Sonny Gray for 3 years/$66m. Louie Varland becomes the SP1 in St. Paul, gets 10 – 15 starts for the Twins as an injury/rest replacement. Perfect way to find out if he could be a full-time MLB starter in 2025 or should transition to bullpen. I wanted to put Varland in the bullpen right away because I think he could be incredibly valuable as an 8th inning/alternative closer guy but I think they're one year away from making that decision given that he really, really wants to stay a starter. Payroll up $21.25m to $138.5M. 

(2) Sign Matt Moore as a LH reliever for $5-7.5m and either Jordan Hicks or Renaldo Lopez as a RH reliever for $3-4m for the bullpen. Moran and Sands go to St. Paul, saving 1.5 million. Payroll up between $8m and $12m, final total in the $145 –150m range.  It doesn't necessarily have to be 2 of these 3 guys; the concept is to sign 2 experienced quality relievers, one of whom is left-handed, to both round out the bullpen and provide an alternative "closer" to close out games so Duran doesn't have to pitch four days a week. I think you have to dedicate about $9-13m a year to get those 2 guys, which is offset by taking two $750,000 year guys and putting them in the minors..

I would be happy to sign Maeda as one of the two relievers if he is willing to be a reliever/6th starter but I think he will get at least a two-year deal somewhere else to be a starting pitcher in the $10 – $12 million a year range. I see Maeda as more of a fallback if Sonny Gray leaves. I would be willing to pay Maeda $10-12m a year on a two year deal, and put him in as the #4 or #5 starter if Gray leaves. Don't think we can/will pay both. I think it is a year too soon to think of Varland as part of an opening day starting rotation but I do think it's the year were going to find out if he can be that in 2025 forward. I wish they could convince him that the right career path is to transition to a late inning reliever now because I think he could be awesome in that role but I understand why he wants to remain a starter -- the contract difference is roughly $10-15m a year between a quality bullpen. guy and a quality mid rotation starter. Hard to walk away from that if you think you can be that mid rotation starter.

[umterp23]

Vazquez $10MM salary is a tough pill to swallow

 

[TopGunn#22]

That's a great baseline to begin with Jon.  Thank You.

Here is where I differ:  I trade Polanco $10.5 and Farmer $6.6 and Thielbar $3.0 in trades.  That aggregates to $20.1 million of savings.  I put Varland in the bullpen.  With Varland providing a boost to the pen, I make a decision at the conclusion of spring training whether Cole Sands or matt Canterino breaks camp.  I'm leaning Canterino.

The bullpen is now:  Duran, Varland, Jax, Stewart, Funderburk, Moran, Alcala and Canterino.  If Moran can't throw strikes, or Alcala/Canterino can't stay healthy, I could look for a veteran this off season to fall back on.  Think of a Jeff Hoffman type who we let go this spring.  

I sign Eduardo Rodriguez for 4 years and $17-$17.5 million per.  I now have a younger SP with more upside than Gray, a LH at that and I save an additional $6 million per season.  I look to add someone with major league experience to play CF.  Maybe Tyler O'Neill is acquired from the Cardinals for Winder and Theilbar (just an example).  O'Neill would probably cost $6-$8 million.  Byron Buxton isn't even on my roster sheet.  If everything is GREAT for Byron, I can play O'Neill in CF to give him rest and play O'Neill in a corner OF spot against LH pitching.  But I'm not counting on a.n.y.t.h.i.n.g. from Byron.  Whatever I CAN get is a bonus.

With Varland bolstering the bullpen I look to add another SP via trade (Polonco, Farmer, Miranda, Theilbar, Winder, maybe even Max Kepler) are trade possibilities.  One other option is to resign Mahle at a team friendly deal to add depth for later in the season.  We will call this guy "SP-X."

Off season plan:  Move on from some veterans and make way for some more youth. (check).  Provide for a plan without Buxton. (check).  Bolster the bullpen with talent from within (Varland, Canterino, Moran, Funderburk) and maybe one arm from outside the organization.  (check).

Acquire at least one, but probably two SP's  Ed-Rod and SP-X) to allow Varland to fortify the bullpen. (check).  

That's a rough outline of my plan.  Would it allow for a splashy move like trading for Juan Soto, Josh Hader?  That would depend on how much the Pohlad's give me to work with and what other moves I would make.  

 

 

[Brandon]

I agree the Twins will not be too active this offseason.  Though I do think they will sign a starting pitcher to put Varland in the pen and be the 6th starter going into the season.  The starting pitcher the Twins will Target would be someone like Wacha, Lugo, Maeda, or Giolito.  they would all be on short term contracts and not too expensive. (when this happens that would be the end of Farmers time here as we would offload his contract to help afford a starting pitcher that is signed in the 12-16 million for a season or 2 range.  

I can also see them dumpster diving for a reliever to compete for a job in spring training.

and lastly.  I can see a tweak on the bench maybe trade farmer and keep Gordon since Gordon will be 5 million less in cost that can go to a starting pitcher.  

This puts the payroll in the 125-128 million range.  and that should be doable.  

same positions and bench as above minus farmer + Gordon

rotation:  Lopez, Ryan, Lugo, Ober, Paddack

Bullpen.  Duran, Jax, Thielbar, Stewart, Varland, Alcala, Funderburk, + whoever wins from (Winder, Moran, Headrick, Sands, veteran signed to minorleague deal, Canterino and whoever else is competing here).  
 

I’ve been thinking about the Twins signing Woodruff to a 2 year rehab contract.  If the Twins sign Giolito or Lugo or Maeda or Wacha, I hope they do this if the cost is not too prohibitive whether it be Woodruff or Mahle.  
 

Also I want to state my preference for resigning Gray if possible.  I prefer him in our rotation over the ones in the tier I think they will sign.  

[tony&rodney]

So I wondered if this was just a list of Twins who could be on the roster, setting the base for building a team. There is no explanation or reasoning for the list. What this an accidental thing? A team that doesn't have any changes from players who were in the system already would be unprecedented. Does this kick off a potential blueprint plan season where TD puts out the chart similar to last year and people fill it in and explain their ideas? I don't get this list. In addition to not including any players that have not already played for the Twins, it does not even include a single rookie. This would be a first for baseball. I'm confused.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Just a stupid quibble…. But… the guy who caught every inning of the post season is going to be the backup to the guy who got benched for the entire post season?

realistically it’ll be a 50/50 split and this is entirely semantic, but dammit, semantics is all we do here!

[DocBauer]

4 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

So I wondered if this was just a list of Twins who could be on the roster, setting the base for building a team. There is no explanation or reasoning for the list. What this an accidental thing? A team that doesn't have any changes from players who were in the system already would be unprecedented. Does this kick off a potential blueprint plan season where TD puts out the chart similar to last year and people fill it in and explain their ideas? I don't get this list. In addition to not including any players that have not already played for the Twins, it does not even include a single rookie. This would be a first for baseball. I'm confused.

I don't want to speak for John, but i took this as a "here's where we are TODAY if the season began tomorrow" blueprint.

Now, he didn't state that, and I'm not sure it's even in the right OP/Forum place probably, (a small goof?), but I take it as a "jumping off point" to begin discussion about 2024.

[tony&rodney]

37 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I don't want to speak for John, but i took this as a "here's where we are TODAY if the season began tomorrow" blueprint.

Now, he didn't state that, and I'm not sure it's even in the right OP/Forum place probably, (a small goof?), but I take it as a "jumping off point" to begin discussion about 2024.

No worries. No big deal. It just is a curious drop of names without anything attached. As you say - a small goof. It made me wonder if TD would repeat the blueprint copy from last season. Early November is about the time to get those offseason hacks in for what one guesses the Twins might feature for 2024. 

[tony&rodney]

13 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I don't want to speak for John, but i took this as a "here's where we are TODAY if the season began tomorrow" blueprint.

Now, he didn't state that, and I'm not sure it's even in the right OP/Forum place probably, (a small goof?), but I take it as a "jumping off point" to begin discussion about 2024.

Was the blueprint for the offseason from Brock and is he still involved in TD? 

In 2022 the Twins ended the year on a sour note and offseason chatter began well before the World Series ended. Dozens of blueprints were up by mid November with the start some time in late October. Not much chatter this year. I'm just curious.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Was the blueprint for the offseason from Brock and is he still involved in TD? 

In 2022 the Twins ended the year on a sour note and offseason chatter began well before the World Series ended. Dozens of blueprints were up by mid November with the start some time in late October. Not much chatter this year. I'm just curious.

Yes @Brock Beauchampis still involved in TD.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Hit the hamburger menu in the top right

then twins resources

[Brock Beauchamp]

3 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Was the blueprint for the offseason from Brock and is he still involved in TD? 

In 2022 the Twins ended the year on a sour note and offseason chatter began well before the World Series ended. Dozens of blueprints were up by mid November with the start some time in late October. Not much chatter this year. I'm just curious.

Oh yeah, I'm still here. This place has a great team in place so you don't see me as often, as my time is spent interacting more with our Brewers and Cubs communities right now.

Last year we rolled out the payroll tool during the postseason (I think) because the Twins were out of the postseason. Because they advanced a round and had a decent postseason run this year, the tool is launching Monday morning.

[tony&rodney]

3 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Oh yeah, I'm still here. This place has a great team in place so you don't see me as often, as my time is spent interacting more with our Brewers and Cubs communities right now.

Last year we rolled out the payroll tool during the postseason (I think) because the Twins were out of the postseason. Because they advanced a round and had a decent postseason run this year, the tool is launching Monday morning.

Thank you. I had thought you must have been pretty busy lately. 

I hope are happier with Max Kepler (jk).

[old nurse]

Castro is not a great CF They will need a backup plan  One of Farmer, Miranda or Castro will not be back

they are probably done with Moran after all the failures. Sands also 

Varland has options, they will use him as SP 6 in Saint Paul so they will need another starter. 

[stringer bell]

On 11/4/2023 at 6:31 PM, old nurse said:

Castro is not a great CF They will need a backup plan  One of Farmer, Miranda or Castro will not be back

they are probably done with Moran after all the failures. Sands also 

Varland has options, they will use him as SP 6 in Saint Paul so they will need another starter. 

I agree that Willi Castro shouldn't be Backup A in center field. I'd love to see the Twins pick up one of the Cardinals excess outfielders. I particularly think Dylan Carlson would be a good fit for the Twins.

Miranda can be optioned next year, so unless he is traded, I would think he'll at least be in the organization. Coming off his strong season in '23, I would expect Castro to return, but I agree that Farmer is on thin ice as far as remaining on the Twins for the coming season. I think Austin Martin figures into the bench player discussion and he does add contact and speed, two things lacking in the current team. 

Moran is left handed and breathing, so I think the Twins will go the extra mile with him, although last season was extremely disappointing. Sands and Winder have moved from starting options to low-leverage multi-inning relief pitchers. Their place on the 40-man roster should be in jeopardy. I don't know about options remaining, but if either is out of options, that lessens their value considerably. Fangraphs says all three of these guys have one more option year, so they all could be candidates for the "St. Paul Shuttle".

I have speculated that the Twins will keep Varland in Minneapolis as a multi-inning reliever if he doesn't make the five-man rotation out of Spring Training. If the Twins acquire a veteran pitcher for the rotation, I think he starts 2024 in the major league bullpen.