FA Starting Pitcher Choices

[Jocko87]

5 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I don't mind that strategy, but I'd rather just use money than players and money. Everyone wants stick and glove players, but it's not that easy. Replacing Julien's bat won't be easy. Not saying not to trade him (or anyone), but the offense was still a problem in the playoffs (and for most of the year) so I don't know that I see trading any good bats as dealing from a position of strength. But I would guess it's more likely they trade than sign one of these guys. Even though I think the top 5 names on this list are likely just as good, or better, than any pitcher they can get in trade.

And cheap, #2 projection type pitchers in AAA are going to cost a ton in trade. Well more than Julien. If you're set on not trading Lewis, Lee, Jenkins, or ERod you're going to struggle to get somebody like that. Everybody wants those guys. Most valuable commodity in baseball probably. 27 year old Lopez with 2 years of control left cost a batting champ. 20-26 year old Lopez type with even more control costs well more than that would be my guess.

This is just one websites value estimation and this is just a quick look at a name I've heard bandied about.  I'm not they guy whos looking deep at other rosters for targets so don't get hung up on the names.  I just think value matches are out there.  You could throw in several prospects in place of Larnach that make it work as well.  I originally used Yasser Mercedes but Salas, Canterino etc work as well.  If they were to do this deal and say we think we can unlock Detmers I'd be all for it.  By position of strength I'm referring more to positional logjams rather than production.  If Lee's bat takes a season to adapt they can wait as he can play good defense at 2nd.  Julien has to hit to be playable.

[Woof Bronzer]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

. We must hope the Pohlad's are willing to reduce profitability or perhaps take a loss.  

Or they could use the massive increase in franchise valuation they've enjoyed over decades of owning the team and reinvest it into the payroll.  Or they could reinvest some of the operating profits they've made in past years.  Or dip into the family billions for couch change.  Zero excuse for cutting payroll this year.  

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

This is just one websites value estimation and this is just a quick look at a name I've heard bandied about.  I'm not they guy whos looking deep at other rosters for targets so don't get hung up on the names.  I just think value matches are out there.  You could throw in several prospects in place of Larnach that make it work as well.  I originally used Yasser Mercedes but Salas, Canterino etc work as well.  If they were to do this deal and say we think we can unlock Detmers I'd be all for it.  By position of strength I'm referring more to positional logjams rather than production.  If Lee's bat takes a season to adapt they can wait as he can play good defense at 2nd.  Julien has to hit to be playable.

Yeah, I'd much rather sign a free agent who's shown they can pitch at the front of a rotation than trade anyone for a guy they hope they can unlock just to save a few bucks. Why are we looking to not spend on a frontline pitcher? Where else should that money go? What's a better use of their payroll dollars for the next 3-5 years than adding a frontline starter?

Lee has to hit to be playable, too. Lewis has to hit for more than 76 games (I've been calling Lewis a star for years, but he's not established at all). Kirilloff has to stay healthy for a whole season (Julien could move to 1B if he needs to). I don't see the positional logjam because it's not a logjam until all the guys up for that spot are established. And there's still the DH spot to cycle them through. Donovan Solano got 450 PAs last year. I'm not seeing a logjam anywhere. Joey Gallo got 47 games and 139 PAs at 1B.

[Linus]

1 hour ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I'd much rather sign a free agent who's shown they can pitch at the front of a rotation than trade anyone for a guy they hope they can unlock just to save a few bucks. Why are we looking to not spend on a frontline pitcher? Where else should that money go? What's a better use of their payroll dollars for the next 3-5 years than adding a frontline starter?

Lee has to hit to be playable, too. Lewis has to hit for more than 76 games (I've been calling Lewis a star for years, but he's not established at all). Kirilloff has to stay healthy for a whole season (Julien could move to 1B if he needs to). I don't see the positional logjam because it's not a logjam until all the guys up for that spot are established. And there's still the DH spot to cycle them through. Donovan Solano got 450 PAs last year. I'm not seeing a logjam anywhere. Joey Gallo got 47 games and 139 PAs at 1B.

This. I am not interested in adding a 4th starter. I want somebody better than Ryan and Ober. I also agree I would rather give up money than prospects but that’s not the way this FO rolls

[cmoss84]

I would give Yamamoto anything he wants. His small frame scares me, but worth the risk. Give him 7/210.  

 

[clone52]

On 10/31/2023 at 1:49 PM, chpettit19 said:

I'm not a big fan of Jim Bowden (he has some takes that prove to wildly off the mark for being a former big league GM), but he just released his free agency predictions on The Athletic. It's behind a paywall so I won't put it all down here, but I wanted to take a look at the top 10 pitchers from his list (he ranked the top 40 FAs with contract predictions). 

Pitcher Rank (overall rank) Player (contract prediction)

1. (1) Shohei Ohtani (10 years, 477 mil plus incentives and escalators taking it over 500 mil- basically 50 mil/year)
2. (2) Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7 years, 211 mil- 30.1 mil/year)
3. (3) Jordan Montgomery (5 years, 127 mil- 25.4 mil/year)
4. (4) Aaron Nola (5 years, 125 mil- 25 mil/year)
5. (5) Blake Snell (5 years, 122 mil- 24.4 mil/year)
6. (9) Clayton Kershaw (1 year, 22 mil- 22 mil/year)
7. (10) Sonny Gray (3 years, 64 mil- 21.3 mil/year)
8. (11) Eduardo Rodriguez (5 years, 90 mil- 18 mil/year)
9. (12) Michael Wacha (1 year, 16 mil- 16 mil/year)
10. (13) Lucas Giolito (2 years, 24 mil- 12 mil/year)

First thing I notice here is how concentrated the top of the rankings are with pitchers. I don't think that should come as a surprise to many as I think it was well known that the position players side of things was pretty shallow this year. But 10 of the top 13 guys being pitchers is a lot. And I don't think it's wrong.

Second thing is what we all love coming on here and discussing...who should the Twins target? While I think the Twins could (and should) offer Ohtani that kind of contract, I don't think anyone truly thinks he's an option for the Twins so we can skip over him. I think the next 4 are the ones the Twins should be targeting, and I think all of those contracts are doable for the Twins. I don't expect them to go after Yamamoto even if I think he'll be a star and is the youngest guy on this list by far.

To me, the Twins have a 5 year window they should be going more or less all in for as they have Buxton (even though you can't rely on him at all anymore) and Correa under contract for those 5 years, Pablo Lopez for most of it, and nearly all of their young talent under control for at least that long as well. I know people worry about "sustained success" and blocking prospects, but I think the window is open now and relying on the young guys to fill in top of the rotation or lineup spots is too risky. Pairing Lopez and one of the top 5 names on this list at the top of the rotation for the foreseeable future would be massive. Yes, injuries are always a concern for starting pitchers, but relying on Ober, Ryan, Paddack, Varland, and SWR to not only be as good as anyone on this list, but also to stay healthy as well, doesn't sound like a recipe for a World Series title to me. Locking in Lopez, FA X, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack as your rotation for the next 2 years, plus more for 4 of those guys, means you can move someone like Varland to the pen (not to start 2024, but eventually) if he can't take the next step, you can trade someone like SWR for a bat if he starts performing next year, and you can truly rely on your system for depth instead of needing it to produce stars regularly.

Signing one of those top 5 guys would be my first task to complete this offseason if I were in charge of the FO. And it'd be for 4+ years. I think getting that done means you can focus almost entirely on the offense (and pen) moving forward as you have your rotation pretty well locked up with the guys coming up in the system fighting to either push one of these guys out, or take over Paddack's spot in 2026. I know a lot of people like the Twins system, but I don't see any pitcher in there that's likely to match Lopez or anyone at the top of this list anytime soon. And if they do, great! Then you have 3 frontline guys.

I'd take Sonny back for a year (I don't expect him to be able to repeat his production this season for much longer, if at all) or Rodriguez, but those top 5 guys is what I'd like to see the Twins go after, and get. Kershaw isn't an option, and the 2 Japanese stars likely aren't realistic either. So, really, it's Montgomery, Nola, and Snell that I'd like. In that order, but I'd take any of them.

What do others think? Realistic for the Twins to get any of these guys? Who would you want? And for how long?

My top two choices would be Gray and Giolito.   Take Giolito if you can't get Gray.

I wouldn't spend the money on any of the rest.  Instead I'd trade from prospect depth for Mitch Keller.  To me, Keller seems like Ace potential akin to Pablo Lopez.  Might be able to sign him to an extension like they did Lopez.

[chpettit19]

6 minutes ago, clone52 said:

My top two choices would be Gray and Giolito.   Take Giolito if you can't get Gray.

I wouldn't spend the money on any of the rest.  Instead I'd trade from prospect depth for Mitch Keller.  To me, Keller seems like Ace potential akin to Pablo Lopez.  Might be able to sign him to an extension like they did Lopez.

Keller is an intriguing arm. Especially because Pittsburgh has been known for being a little behind the times in terms of pitching development recently so there's always a thought you can get more out of their guys with a tweak or two.

Why wouldn't you want to spend money on the rest? Where else would you spend the money?

[clone52]

26 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Keller is an intriguing arm. Especially because Pittsburgh has been known for being a little behind the times in terms of pitching development recently so there's always a thought you can get more out of their guys with a tweak or two.

Why wouldn't you want to spend money on the rest? Where else would you spend the money?

#1, we don't know if the money will be there, due to the TV contract.

Even so, I think I'd pass.

I'd take Gray because he's a known quantity, and although he's getting older, he seems to have a great work ethic and will be able to adjust.

I'd take Giolito because I think he's a lotto ticket.  Might even see if he'd take 3/30.

I'd take Ohtani if the money was there.

I'd take Yamamoto because I want the Twins to make a massive Japan pitching splash at some point.

I'm a no on Montgomery because he is a low strikeout guy.  For $25M a year, I think I would want that.

I'd stay away from Nola because his K/9 is dropping on a yearly basis.  12.1 to 11.1 to 10.3 to 9.4.  I don't want to commit to 5 years of that.

Blake Snell would probably be okay, but I don't love the 5 year commitment.  I don't see any huge red flags, so I wouldn't whine if they did sign him.

Kershaw isn't signing with the Twins, but I'd be okay with 1 year for him at that cost.

Rodriguez isn't a huge K guy.  His Hard Hit % is creeping up.  His GB rate is dropping.  I have a feeling he could drop off a cliff soon.

If they don't make a trade, 1 year of Wacha would be fine.

 

 

 

 

[chpettit19]

53 minutes ago, clone52 said:

#1, we don't know if the money will be there, due to the TV contract.

Even so, I think I'd pass.

I'd take Gray because he's a known quantity, and although he's getting older, he seems to have a great work ethic and will be able to adjust.

I'd take Giolito because I think he's a lotto ticket.  Might even see if he'd take 3/30.

I'd take Ohtani if the money was there.

I'd take Yamamoto because I want the Twins to make a massive Japan pitching splash at some point.

I'm a no on Montgomery because he is a low strikeout guy.  For $25M a year, I think I would want that.

I'd stay away from Nola because his K/9 is dropping on a yearly basis.  12.1 to 11.1 to 10.3 to 9.4.  I don't want to commit to 5 years of that.

Blake Snell would probably be okay, but I don't love the 5 year commitment.  I don't see any huge red flags, so I wouldn't whine if they did sign him.

Kershaw isn't signing with the Twins, but I'd be okay with 1 year for him at that cost.

Rodriguez isn't a huge K guy.  His Hard Hit % is creeping up.  His GB rate is dropping.  I have a feeling he could drop off a cliff soon.

If they don't make a trade, 1 year of Wacha would be fine.

 

 

 

 

Twins are going to get paid to broadcast baseball games in 2024 so we do know money will be there.

I can't say agree with your stance on all those guys, but I do appreciate the well thought out reasoning for it, and reasonable minds can disagree on these things. I appreciate the back and forth. I don't expect the Twins to sign anyone on this list, but I do think their window is opening and I'm going to be very disappointed if they don't make some real strides in improving the front of the rotation and/or top of the lineup from how they stand today.

Hopefully we're in for an exciting offseason that can give us real hope for the team taking another step towards truly contending for a title!

[Jocko87]

4 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Yeah, I'd much rather sign a free agent who's shown they can pitch at the front of a rotation than trade anyone for a guy they hope they can unlock just to save a few bucks. Why are we looking to not spend on a frontline pitcher? Where else should that money go? What's a better use of their payroll dollars for the next 3-5 years than adding a frontline starter?

Lee has to hit to be playable, too. Lewis has to hit for more than 76 games (I've been calling Lewis a star for years, but he's not established at all). Kirilloff has to stay healthy for a whole season (Julien could move to 1B if he needs to). I don't see the positional logjam because it's not a logjam until all the guys up for that spot are established. And there's still the DH spot to cycle them through. Donovan Solano got 450 PAs last year. I'm not seeing a logjam anywhere. Joey Gallo got 47 games and 139 PAs at 1B.

Not a lot of those guys on that list and the payback on that front line free agent pitcher isn’t always that great.  There’s a reason they don’t play deep in that market.  I don’t see a name on the list that can’t be picked apart with very little effort.  Some of that money suggested is flat out irresponsible.

As for the money, a lot of it is already spent, TV deal or not.  I agree the TV won’t matter much for the short term.  If they sign up for 5/125 where does that fit with arbitration increases in two years? A Lewis extension, a Duran deal, 3 young starting pitchers doing nothing but getting more expensive all have to be accounted for.  If you make a big signing, you are sacrificing a young player later one way or the other.  That takes the edge off prospect cost for me.

Also, If I have to read one more why is Wallner et al still at AAA article I’m going to puke. Yes, lots of at bats are available but when your #1 prospect is behind 7 guys someone is moving. It’s the balance of depth and playing time they have to solve.  Not everyone is staying and the back log is infielders and left handed corner outfielders.  I’m predicting those excesses will be turned into starting pitching in some form.  At these estimated prices, that’s the way I would go too.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, Jocko87 said:

Not a lot of those guys on that list and the payback on that front line free agent pitcher isn’t always that great.  There’s a reason they don’t play deep in that market.  I don’t see a name on the list that can’t be picked apart with very little effort.  Some of that money suggested is flat out irresponsible.

As for the money, a lot of it is already spent, TV deal or not.  I agree the TV won’t matter much for the short term.  If they sign up for 5/125 where does that fit with arbitration increases in two years? A Lewis extension, a Duran deal, 3 young starting pitchers doing nothing but getting more expensive all have to be accounted for.  If you make a big signing, you are sacrificing a young player later one way or the other.  That takes the edge off prospect cost for me.

Also, If I have to read one more why is Wallner et al still at AAA article I’m going to puke. Yes, lots of at bats are available but when your #1 prospect is behind 7 guys someone is moving. It’s the balance of depth and playing time they have to solve.  Not everyone is staying and the back log is infielders and left handed corner outfielders.  I’m predicting those excesses will be turned into starting pitching in some form.  At these estimated prices, that’s the way I would go too.

The Twins are around 100 mil in payroll right now. That's 50 mil lower than their 2023 payroll.

2025 1st year arb eligible players: Lewis, Duran, Ryan, Ober, Jax, Stewart, Larnach
2026 1st year arb eligible players: Miranda, Sands, Winder, Moran
2027 1st year arb eligible players: Julien, Wallner, Varland

I see 4 guys they need to worry about getting expensive in 2-3 years (Lewis, Duran, Ryan, Ober). 1 guy who will get paid a little, but nothing crazy (Jax). A guy who won't get paid much at all (Stewart). And a guy who's more likely to not even be on the roster after he runs out of options in 2024 (Larnach). None of the other guys people are worried about even hit arbitration until 2027. 

By 2027 you've cleared Kepler, Polanco, and Vazquez's money. You've cleared Paddack's money. You're in the last year of Lopez's money, and 2nd to last year of Correa and Buxton (who may retire before then for all we know) money. Kepler, Polanco, and Vazquez clear 30+ mil alone by 2026. So they have the 50 mil they're short right now, plus 30 mil from those 3, 6ish from Farmer, 3ish from Thielbar, whatever Castro is going to get in arbitration the next 2 years, 7.5 from Paddack in 2 years, 3 from Dobnak in 2 years. Everyone on that 2025 list better turn into absolute superstars if you're going to need all that money to cover them. The Twins have money to spend.

If you have 9+ guys on your roster in pre-arb and arb years, and fans are actually hoping to bump that number up with the likes of Lee, Martin, Severino, etc. in the next year+ you have money. Only way you have a roster half full of pre-arb and arb players that gets expensive is if you have the next murderers row. Alex Kirilloff and Ryan Jeffers are the only young guys on this roster that is set to hit free agency before a 5 year contract is up. And at that point you have Lopez, Correa, Buxton, and FA X's deals all coming off the books. There'll be money to then extend whichever of the young guys prove worthy while you let the next wave (that you've now had 5 years to develop) back fill for the current guys. The Twins have money to spend.

[Jim wyllie]

If we're up to me I'd bring back gray and sign snell.  And to top it of trade for Chaz Mccormick to bolster the lineup, maybe even consider jorge soler to give a bonus boost to the lineup.  Adding funderburk and Varland to the pen

[nicksaviking]

On 11/2/2023 at 11:06 AM, chpettit19 said:

Also pretty simple in business that you have to invest money to make money. I don't have to hope the Pohlad's are "willing to reduce profitability or perhaps take a loss," I have to hope they have enough foresight to invest in their product to increase profitability moving forward.

In just about every business except for professional sports. It's pretty much just the initial investment and then they can nickel and dime the operation to their hearts content; see the Pittsburg Pirates. Buying a pro sports team is basically just an ATM for these billionaires.

But, the Pohlad's haven't been doing that recently, and I don't see them reducing their current investments. We don't have the world's greatest pro sports ownership group, but we're better off than most of our peer markets and I'm fine with the bird-in-the-hand we have.

[nicksaviking]

But I don't care about the payroll, the bottom line is they cannot take a step back in terms of quality of the rotation next year. Whether it's via free agency or trade, they have to get someone who slots in ABOVE Ryan/Ober/Paddock, not someone who slots in with with them.

[Greglw3]

On 10/31/2023 at 1:49 PM, chpettit19 said:

I'm not a big fan of Jim Bowden (he has some takes that prove to wildly off the mark for being a former big league GM), but he just released his free agency predictions on The Athletic. It's behind a paywall so I won't put it all down here, but I wanted to take a look at the top 10 pitchers from his list (he ranked the top 40 FAs with contract predictions). 

Pitcher Rank (overall rank) Player (contract prediction)

1. (1) Shohei Ohtani (10 years, 477 mil plus incentives and escalators taking it over 500 mil- basically 50 mil/year)
2. (2) Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7 years, 211 mil- 30.1 mil/year)
3. (3) Jordan Montgomery (5 years, 127 mil- 25.4 mil/year)
4. (4) Aaron Nola (5 years, 125 mil- 25 mil/year)
5. (5) Blake Snell (5 years, 122 mil- 24.4 mil/year)
6. (9) Clayton Kershaw (1 year, 22 mil- 22 mil/year)
7. (10) Sonny Gray (3 years, 64 mil- 21.3 mil/year)
8. (11) Eduardo Rodriguez (5 years, 90 mil- 18 mil/year)
9. (12) Michael Wacha (1 year, 16 mil- 16 mil/year)
10. (13) Lucas Giolito (2 years, 24 mil- 12 mil/year)

First thing I notice here is how concentrated the top of the rankings are with pitchers. I don't think that should come as a surprise to many as I think it was well known that the position players side of things was pretty shallow this year. But 10 of the top 13 guys being pitchers is a lot. And I don't think it's wrong.

Second thing is what we all love coming on here and discussing...who should the Twins target? While I think the Twins could (and should) offer Ohtani that kind of contract, I don't think anyone truly thinks he's an option for the Twins so we can skip over him. I think the next 4 are the ones the Twins should be targeting, and I think all of those contracts are doable for the Twins. I don't expect them to go after Yamamoto even if I think he'll be a star and is the youngest guy on this list by far.

To me, the Twins have a 5 year window they should be going more or less all in for as they have Buxton (even though you can't rely on him at all anymore) and Correa under contract for those 5 years, Pablo Lopez for most of it, and nearly all of their young talent under control for at least that long as well. I know people worry about "sustained success" and blocking prospects, but I think the window is open now and relying on the young guys to fill in top of the rotation or lineup spots is too risky. Pairing Lopez and one of the top 5 names on this list at the top of the rotation for the foreseeable future would be massive. Yes, injuries are always a concern for starting pitchers, but relying on Ober, Ryan, Paddack, Varland, and SWR to not only be as good as anyone on this list, but also to stay healthy as well, doesn't sound like a recipe for a World Series title to me. Locking in Lopez, FA X, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack as your rotation for the next 2 years, plus more for 4 of those guys, means you can move someone like Varland to the pen (not to start 2024, but eventually) if he can't take the next step, you can trade someone like SWR for a bat if he starts performing next year, and you can truly rely on your system for depth instead of needing it to produce stars regularly.

Signing one of those top 5 guys would be my first task to complete this offseason if I were in charge of the FO. And it'd be for 4+ years. I think getting that done means you can focus almost entirely on the offense (and pen) moving forward as you have your rotation pretty well locked up with the guys coming up in the system fighting to either push one of these guys out, or take over Paddack's spot in 2026. I know a lot of people like the Twins system, but I don't see any pitcher in there that's likely to match Lopez or anyone at the top of this list anytime soon. And if they do, great! Then you have 3 frontline guys.

I'd take Sonny back for a year (I don't expect him to be able to repeat his production this season for much longer, if at all) or Rodriguez, but those top 5 guys is what I'd like to see the Twins go after, and get. Kershaw isn't an option, and the 2 Japanese stars likely aren't realistic either. So, really, it's Montgomery, Nola, and Snell that I'd like. In that order, but I'd take any of them.

What do others think? Realistic for the Twins to get any of these guys? Who would you want? And for how long?

New option todayJorge Soler!

[Lefty61]

Targetting Sale in a trade from Boston would be a good option, despite recent injuries, he would be a year younger version of Kershaw, and for 1 year at $27M could be terrific as a #2 behind Lopez if healthy.  And Vazquez was his catcher when he was runner up CY in Boston.  Red Sox will be looking past 2024,   Richardson or Martin, Gordon and Ethridge or Veen could get it done.    

[Major League Ready]

4 hours ago, nicksaviking said:

In just about every business except for professional sports. It's pretty much just the initial investment and then they can nickel and dime the operation to their hearts content; see the Pittsburg Pirates. Buying a pro sports team is basically just an ATM for these billionaires.

But, the Pohlad's haven't been doing that recently, and I don't see them reducing their current investments. We don't have the world's greatest pro sports ownership group, but we're better off than most of our peer markets and I'm fine with the bird-in-the-hand we have.

You hit this one on the head.  Baseball's economic models and financial practices are quite different than other businesses / industries.  However, there is one common thread, spending more than you bring in results in a loss.

[DocBauer]

On 11/2/2023 at 9:03 PM, chpettit19 said:

The Twins are around 100 mil in payroll right now. That's 50 mil lower than their 2023 payroll.

2025 1st year arb eligible players: Lewis, Duran, Ryan, Ober, Jax, Stewart, Larnach
2026 1st year arb eligible players: Miranda, Sands, Winder, Moran
2027 1st year arb eligible players: Julien, Wallner, Varland

I see 4 guys they need to worry about getting expensive in 2-3 years (Lewis, Duran, Ryan, Ober). 1 guy who will get paid a little, but nothing crazy (Jax). A guy who won't get paid much at all (Stewart). And a guy who's more likely to not even be on the roster after he runs out of options in 2024 (Larnach). None of the other guys people are worried about even hit arbitration until 2027. 

By 2027 you've cleared Kepler, Polanco, and Vazquez's money. You've cleared Paddack's money. You're in the last year of Lopez's money, and 2nd to last year of Correa and Buxton (who may retire before then for all we know) money. Kepler, Polanco, and Vazquez clear 30+ mil alone by 2026. So they have the 50 mil they're short right now, plus 30 mil from those 3, 6ish from Farmer, 3ish from Thielbar, whatever Castro is going to get in arbitration the next 2 years, 7.5 from Paddack in 2 years, 3 from Dobnak in 2 years. Everyone on that 2025 list better turn into absolute superstars if you're going to need all that money to cover them. The Twins have money to spend.

If you have 9+ guys on your roster in pre-arb and arb years, and fans are actually hoping to bump that number up with the likes of Lee, Martin, Severino, etc. in the next year+ you have money. Only way you have a roster half full of pre-arb and arb players that gets expensive is if you have the next murderers row. Alex Kirilloff and Ryan Jeffers are the only young guys on this roster that is set to hit free agency before a 5 year contract is up. And at that point you have Lopez, Correa, Buxton, and FA X's deals all coming off the books. There'll be money to then extend whichever of the young guys prove worthy while you let the next wave (that you've now had 5 years to develop) back fill for the current guys. The Twins have money to spend.

So Bonnes tossed out a somewhat confusing initial blueprint of "where the Twins are now if the season started to play tomorrow" post. It puts the roster at $117M. We keep talking about $150M as the equivalent to 2023, but I've seen "final" numbers between $150-159M. 

I agree with every comment you've made in regard to any potential TV deal, to some MLB contract bonuses yet coming, to the FO/ownership knowing ahead of time what was going to happen, to investing in the future based on a successful season. NOBODY in the FO is blind to what has happened, and what might happen, in regard to payroll and income. 

I DON'T believe the Twins will cut payroll. Ownership and the FO have been pretty aggressive at raising payroll and staying status quo in regard to where they sit as a market. And I do think some fans freak out a bit when they hear about a lost TV deal making massive repercussions in regard to payroll. But again, you lose $55M, but get $30Mback, we'll say for conversation on a new deal, you lose $12M based on a 52% of incoming profit. 

While I absolutely don't want the fans to absorb that cost in tickets or parking/dogs/beers, national ML contracts keep rising. And it's OK if add revenue keeps rising. I will mentally/emotionally PUKE if the Twins clutter the beauty of Target Field with the amount of advertising Houston has in their park, but there might be room for growth. It's also very possible that an investment in a winning and contending team means raising the % of incoming $ vs profit makes sense to grow, as has been stated.

All of this to say I agree the WORST thing the Twins could do is NOT be proactive. And again, I don't think they resigned Buxton, didn't sign. Correa, didn't sign Lopez to an extension, without a thought for the future. 

The ONLY way I see a cut in payroll is moving on from Farmer and Polanco to save $ in a deal for an arm similar to the Gray and Lopez deals. And maybe we are looking at it wrong, maybe not. PERHAPS, THOSE moves MIGHT be to grab a couple of solid prospects, work in the young talent even more, and STILL add a front rotation arm. The FO has surprised us before, and might surprise us again.

But what I'd really like to see is ONCE, bring in a quality arm that isn't a crazy deal and keep the talent on hand and have both a "go for it" mentality and keeping the status quo. Then work the edges. 

 

[TopGunn#22]

Where would Trevor Bauer rank in this list cost-wise?  In addition, it would be nice to see a list of potential SP that could be acquired in a trade and what their current contract status is.  This is an excellent topic, and Bowden's list is a good starting point.  This is something we're all going to be commenting on for the entire off season.  So if anyone has some additional ideas of where Bauer fits into this and possible SP trade targets that would be great.   

[nicksaviking]

13 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

You hit this one on the head.  Baseball's economic models and financial practices are quite different than other businesses / industries.  However, there is one common thread, spending more than you bring in results in a loss.

Still, there's a difference between spending 40% less than what you bring in and spending 70% less than what you bring in. That stratification creates a competitive disadvantage.

And honestly, spending 10% less than what you bring in is a reasonable if not generous model in many industries, pro sports owners have just collectively decided that they want more. Much more.

[DocBauer]

Stroman just opted out if the last year of his Cubs deal. He's leaving $21M on the table to look for a new deal.

Still a very good pitcher, but has had a pair of injuries each of the last 2yrs to throw off his seasons. (Pun intended).

Gets a ton of ground balls, has great control, not a big K arm. Believe he's going to be 33yo. Are we interested?

[tony&rodney]

On 11/4/2023 at 10:37 AM, TopGunn#22 said:

So if anyone has some additional ideas of where Bauer fits into this and possible SP trade targets that would be great.   

No idea what the teams around baseball think about Bauer, but I believe he is best categorized as a former MLB player at this point. Arizona, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Los Angeles Dodgers all took their best shots at making him a part of their teams. 2019 was the last time that Bauer pitched a full season. Noted that 2020 he was good in the shortened year. Maybe a team offers him a one year two way contract with modest incentives. Who knows? 

Trade targets are everywhere but the teams that seem worth a text are Miami, Seattle, and Milwaukee. The Twins need to gauge what other teams value from the Twins system.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

On 11/2/2023 at 1:49 PM, chpettit19 said:

And there's still the DH spot to cycle them through. 

I wish. . . There’s still the Buxton situation to work out.  If he can play CF, that would be awesome, but alas, I’m not putting any money on it.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I wish. . . There’s still the Buxton situation to work out.  If he can play CF, that would be awesome, but alas, I’m not putting any money on it.

Buxton as DH only was a disaster this year. I certainly hope they have no intention of repeating that. I don't expect him to be a fulltime CFer by any means, but they also can't let him monopolize the DH spot if he's terrible again. 

[twinfan]

From the list above, I would target Gray for 3 years, Nola for 4-5 years, Rodriguez for 3-4 years, and Kershaw for 1-2 years. I can't comment about money as all are way overpaid as are most baseball superstars but that's the nature of all sports. I'd love for us to get Ohtani even if he never pitches again but that's probably out of our financial league. I don't trust Snell or Giolito and don't know anything about how Yamamoto would do here though he seems like a good one. I didn't know Montgomery was a FA but he is a good mid-priced pitcher.

Also, there will be others who already are (Stroman) or will become free agents. I hope we can keep Gray and even Maeda but we'll see. Finally, we need to get Ryan straightened out and I'm not sold on Paddack.

[tony&rodney]

1 hour ago, twinfan said:

I can't comment about money as all are way overpaid as are most baseball superstars but that's the nature of all sports.

Agree it would be nice to add some free agent starting pitching although the Twins have never spent big on that. On money, it seems like you did make a comment  .. .  but yes it might be better if all financial compensation globally could be restrained to a random number, maybe $1 million per year. FWIW, there are not any baseball players making a billion dollars but there are more billionaires than major league baseball positions in any given year. Money is crazy and people seem to love it. The Twins are a business and need to remain within the parameters of the boundaries set by their accountants. The guys who crunch the numbers tell their bosses all of the numbers and the bosses then make the decisions. Do the Pohlads want Soto?

[strumdatjag]

Yamamoto - period. 

[Vanimal46]

Realistically, I only see Giolito as an option on the list. It's fun to look at the top pitchers, but we have to remember this regime has not been interested in handing out huge contracts. As far as we know, we offered Yu Darvish ~$100 million when he accepted a 6/$126 deal from Chicago in 2018. We offered Zach Wheeler a fair sized deal that he turned down. Our largest agreed upon contract for a free agent pitcher continues to be Big Mike Pineda for $20 million total. 

I'm looking at trade options for pitching help. Tyler Glasnow looks like a feasible target at $15.2 million per year for 2024 and 2025. Corbin Burnes is in his final year of arbitration and Milwaukee needs bats. Logan Gilbert is under control through 2027 and will be very expensive to acquire.

[Jocko87]

On 11/2/2023 at 9:03 PM, chpettit19 said:

The Twins are around 100 mil in payroll right now. That's 50 mil lower than their 2023 payroll.

2025 1st year arb eligible players: Lewis, Duran, Ryan, Ober, Jax, Stewart, Larnach
2026 1st year arb eligible players: Miranda, Sands, Winder, Moran
2027 1st year arb eligible players: Julien, Wallner, Varland

I see 4 guys they need to worry about getting expensive in 2-3 years (Lewis, Duran, Ryan, Ober). 1 guy who will get paid a little, but nothing crazy (Jax). A guy who won't get paid much at all (Stewart). And a guy who's more likely to not even be on the roster after he runs out of options in 2024 (Larnach). None of the other guys people are worried about even hit arbitration until 2027. 

By 2027 you've cleared Kepler, Polanco, and Vazquez's money. You've cleared Paddack's money. You're in the last year of Lopez's money, and 2nd to last year of Correa and Buxton (who may retire before then for all we know) money. Kepler, Polanco, and Vazquez clear 30+ mil alone by 2026. So they have the 50 mil they're short right now, plus 30 mil from those 3, 6ish from Farmer, 3ish from Thielbar, whatever Castro is going to get in arbitration the next 2 years, 7.5 from Paddack in 2 years, 3 from Dobnak in 2 years. Everyone on that 2025 list better turn into absolute superstars if you're going to need all that money to cover them. The Twins have money to spend.

If you have 9+ guys on your roster in pre-arb and arb years, and fans are actually hoping to bump that number up with the likes of Lee, Martin, Severino, etc. in the next year+ you have money. Only way you have a roster half full of pre-arb and arb players that gets expensive is if you have the next murderers row. Alex Kirilloff and Ryan Jeffers are the only young guys on this roster that is set to hit free agency before a 5 year contract is up. And at that point you have Lopez, Correa, Buxton, and FA X's deals all coming off the books. There'll be money to then extend whichever of the young guys prove worthy while you let the next wave (that you've now had 5 years to develop) back fill for the current guys. The Twins have money to spend.

There is room to be sure, I don't think they need to pinch pennies by any means but I don't think free agent pitching is their jam anyway.  They do need to be relatively risk averse with big contracts though, one bad one can really jam up the works. 

That said, I've updated my wishlist.  Not that it's realistic but if they can get Yamamoto for 10yrs 200m I'd be all for it.  He's young enough that even a year off for Tommy John could be absorbed and they would have any number of exits if they needed it down the road.  He will probably be more like 6-7 years at that number but I'd still consider it. 

I'm just not a fan of spending big dollars on 30+yo pitchers.

[chpettit19]

20 minutes ago, Jocko87 said:

There is room to be sure, I don't think they need to pinch pennies by any means but I don't think free agent pitching is their jam anyway.  They do need to be relatively risk averse with big contracts though, one bad one can really jam up the works. 

That said, I've updated my wishlist.  Not that it's realistic but if they can get Yamamoto for 10yrs 200m I'd be all for it.  He's young enough that even a year off for Tommy John could be absorbed and they would have any number of exits if they needed it down the road.  He will probably be more like 6-7 years at that number but I'd still consider it. 

I'm just not a fan of spending big dollars on 30+yo pitchers.

I certainly don't expect anything big, but I think we oversell how risk averse they need to be with big contracts, and undersell the risk involved with being so risk averse to those big deals. Not that that's what you're doing, but in general there's a lot of people around twins territory that are terrified of big deals and how they're going to ruin everything. The fact is that you need to have some big contracts to have sustainable winning. Just relying on your system to produce not just major leaguers, but above average, and star, major leaguers isn't a winning formula. At some point you need to take big contract risks. And the Twins have started to do that. But they still have fans who complain about it. Spreading the money around isn't actually a great idea. 

Yamamoto would be my target as well. Young guy with electric stuff and has pitched, and dominated, on the biggest stages already. But I'm less nervous about the 30 year mark than others. At least when it comes to top of the line talent. 35 is the age I get nervous at. And that's why I'm not a fan of a multi-year deal for Gray. I just hope they don't diminish the offense too much by trading for another starter, or go after a less than top of the line starter to replace Gray. We'll see, though.