Playoff Pitching Rotation

[strumdatjag]

Maybe this iOS too obvious a topic.  BUT -Somebody has to start this - it pops up in other threads - it needs its own!!!

The Twins should go with a four man rotation in the playoffs.  The first three are easy:

Lopez then Gray then Ryan. 
Then the tough choice would be Keuchel with Maeda in the pen.  

Ober and Varland are question marks as to whether they make the playoff roster (and almost certainly in the bullpen if they do).  

Who actually goes where should depend on the matchups, injuries and how the particular pitchers have performed over the last 2-3 weeks of the season. 

If an opposing team has trouble with left handers, Keuchel should certainly start as #4 (if performing adequately) over Maeda - and at this point Keuchel seems to deserve the start regardless of those analytics. 

 

[Muppet]

I like Ober and Madea as starer/pen pieces. They can start situationally or piggyback. Depending on how Ober does down the stretch or in St. Paul, I'd lean Ober, but both of them are a bit risky. I'd expect them to manage the pitching much different in the playoffs with more multi inning starts if needed when the second pitcher is cruising, and relying less on back to back to back appearances by their streaky relief lineup. 

With Pagan finally finding his way, and the option to put starters in the pen, I like this bullpen much better than a few weeks ago. That said, it is still their biggest weakness (assuming they can keep hitting like they have been in August). 

[John Kelsey]

Please no Keuchel, give me Ober or Maeda in that order for the #4 spot. Varland in the bullpen. 

[Trov]

In the first round they will need only 3 starters.  Depending on how that goes, lets hope the best and we win in 2, then for second round it is best of 5.  Assuming there is enough rest, we could even get lucky and only need 3 in round 2, if we sweep again.  Assuming we do not sweep the second round, I would want to look at matchups.  Personally, I like Ober and he has had a great year, but has looked a little gassed.  If some rest leading up to playoffs, and avoid rust, can make him available I would go him.  However, if the matchup looks like Dallas could have a good outing run him out there.  

In a perfect world we would not have to figure that out until the 3rd round because we swept the first 2. 

[DJL44]

24 minutes ago, strumdatjag said:

Maybe this iOS too obvious a topic.  BUT -Somebody has to start this - it pops up in other threads - it needs its own!!!

The Twins should go with a four man rotation in the playoffs.  The first three are easy:

The first round is only 3 possible games - Lopez, Gray and Ryan

There is one scheduled off day between rounds 1 and 2. If they win the wildcard round 2-0 go with Ryan for Game 1, then Lopez and Gray. If they have gone through all 3 pitchers in the wildcard round they'll have to use the 4th starter for Game 1 of the division series. Based on year-long performance the choice should be Ober but Maeda might be a better matchup.

The bullpen could be stacked with starters with Paddack, Varland, Maeda and Keuchel all stashed there.

[Nine of twelve]

Keep in mind the rosters can be reset after each round of the postseason. So we only need to roster 3 starters for the first round. After that we will need only 4. I think the plan is to have Ober ready for the second round and that’s what I hope for. I don’t think he would work as a reliever and I think Maeda would be better suited for that. I’m glad Keuchel has been satisfactory in his role as the last starter in the rotation as the season winds down but IMHO he doesn’t belong on a postseason roster. 
 

Edited to add: Paddack shouldn’t be ruled out as a long shot. If he looks dominant in his rehab assignment he is in the mix. 

[mnfireman]

Paddack will be good for no more than 1 inning this season, if they use him at all.

[LA Vikes Fan]

34 minutes ago, Nine of twelve said:

Keep in mind the rosters can be reset after each round of the postseason. So we only need to roster 3 starters for the first round. After that we will need only 4. I think the plan is to have Ober ready for the second round and that’s what I hope for. I don’t think he would work as a reliever and I think Maeda would be better suited for that. I’m glad Keuchel has been satisfactory in his role as the last starter in the rotation as the season winds down but IMHO he doesn’t belong on a postseason roster. 
 

Edited to add: Paddack shouldn’t be ruled out as a long shot. If he looks dominant in his rehab assignment he is in the mix. 

Agree with this except for Paddack.  Lopez, Gray, and Ryan are the first 3. Ober is #4, may not be on the playoff roster for the first round, #4 starter if we get to a second round. Maeda is a bullpen guy from round 1 forward. If he is on playoff roster in round 1 it's at the expense of Winder. Paddack would be a nice addition to the bullpen IF he can pitch a few innings down the stretch in 1 or 2 inning spurts and show he can help in relief.  fg he can, probably replaces Varland rather than Funderburk or Kuechel. Louie still has a home run problem and you just can't have a guy like that in the late inning of a playoff game. Maeda can be the playoff long man, has playoff experience. and is better than Varland.  We don't really need Varland in the playoffs unless he shows he can be dominating in 1 or 2 inning stretches.  He ahs to show he can avoid giving up HRs and his last appearance looked way too much like the 3-5 appearances earlier this season that got him sent down to AAA. 

[chpettit19]

Wild Card Round: Game 1- Oct 3, Game 2- Oct 4, Game 3- Oct 5 (if necessary)
ALDS: Game 1- Oct 7, Game 2- Oct 8, Game 3- Oct 10, Game 4- Oct 11 (if necessary), Game 5- Oct 13 (if necessary)
ALCS: Game 1- Oct 15, Game 2- Oct 16, Game 3- Oct 18, Game 4- Oct 19, Game 5- Oct 20 (if necessary), Game 6- Oct 22 (if necessary), Game 7- Oct 23 (if necessary)
WS: Game 1- Oct 27, Game 2- Oct 28, Game 3- Oct 30, Game 4- Oct 31, Game 5- Nov 1 (if necessary), Game 6- Nov 3 (if necessary), Game 7- Nov 4 (if necessary)

With those dates in mind I'd pencil in:
Lopez for WC Game 1, ALDS Game 2, ALDS Game 5/ALCS Game 1
Gray for WC Game 2, ALDS Game 3
Ryan for WC Game 3/ALDS Game 1
Ober for ALDS Game 1/ALDS Game 4

Depending on how things play out it'd be either Ryan or Ober for ALDS Game 4 (Ryan if he throws WC Game 3, Ober if there's no WC Game 3). Things get too complicated with how to slot guys into the ALCS depending on how many games the WC and ALDS go. But that'd be my plan for the first 2 series. This assumes Ober comes back and looks close to his usual self from most of this year. If he doesn't I'd go "bullpen game" for his spot in the rotation and look to get 1 time through the order out of a few different guys.

[DJL44]

19 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

Ober for ALDS Game 1/ALDS Game 4

That should give Ober at least a full week off. He pitched 9/9 so regular starts would have him pitching 9/14, 9/20, 9/26, 10/1. I would skip him 10/1 and give him 11-15 days.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

If the Twins win the first series in two games, I would roll with the #3 and #4 starters for the first two games of the ALDS.

They’re playing with house money at that point. 

Try to steal one of the first two ALDS games with your third or fourth starter, and come back home to Target Field tied 1-1 with Lopez and Gray pitching games three and four. 

 

[DJL44]

11 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

That should give Ober at least a full week off. He pitched 9/9 so regular starts would have him pitching 9/14, 9/20, 9/26, 10/1. I would skip him 10/1 and give him 11-15 days.

More detail, I would go to a 6 man rotation soon:

9/10 - Lopez

9/11 - Gray

9/12 - Ryan

9/13 - Keuchel

9/14 - Bring up Ober (give everyone an extra day rest)

9/15 - Maeda

9/16 - Lopez

9/17 - Gray

9/18 - Ryan

9/19 - Keuchel

9/20 - Ober

9/21 - OFF

9/22 - Maeda

9/23 - Lopez - final start of the regular season, by this time they should have clinched already

9/24 - Gray - final start of the regular season

9/25 - OFF

9/26 - Ryan - final start of the regular season

9/27 - Keuchel

9/28 - Ober

9/29 - Maeda

9/30 - Varland

10/1 - Bullpen game 162

10/2 - OFF

10/3 - Lopez

10/4 - Gray

10/5 or 10/7 - Ryan

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

30 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

More detail, I would go to a 6 man rotation soon:

9/10 - Lopez

9/11 - Gray

9/12 - Ryan

9/13 - Keuchel

9/14 - Bring up Ober (give everyone an extra day rest)

9/15 - Maeda

9/16 - Lopez

9/17 - Gray

9/18 - Ryan

9/19 - Keuchel

9/20 - Ober

9/21 - OFF

9/22 - Maeda

9/23 - Lopez - final start of the regular season, by this time they should have clinched already

9/24 - Gray - final start of the regular season

9/25 - OFF

9/26 - Ryan - final start of the regular season

9/27 - Keuchel

9/28 - Ober

9/29 - Maeda

9/30 - Varland

10/1 - Bullpen game 162

10/2 - OFF

10/3 - Lopez

10/4 - Gray

10/5 or 10/7 - Ryan

That is certainly a valid idea. For me, if we were going to skip starts, I would want to skip them before the final week so that those guys aren’t coming off a layoff. Then a 2 or 3 or 4 inning tune up start 4-5 days before the playoff start. 

[Battle ur tail off]

I wouldn't even put Ober on the playoff roster. Like not at all unless there is an injury. He is way to likely to give up big innings, literally sometimes has 5-6 at bats in a row where guys hit the ball over 100 mph. 

He did a nice job this year. But he has hit his wall. Don't temp fate at this point. Same with Kuechel, if you want to give him a spot just to sit there and advise these younger guys, that's fine, but I don't want him throwing very much unless the game is out of hand. Too likely to give up loads of barreled balls against playoff lineups.

[GusGus11]

1 hour ago, DJL44 said:

More detail, I would go to a 6 man rotation soon:

9/10 - Lopez

9/11 - Gray

9/12 - Ryan

9/13 - Keuchel

9/14 - Bring up Ober (give everyone an extra day rest)

9/15 - Maeda

9/16 - Lopez

9/17 - Gray

9/18 - Ryan

9/19 - Keuchel

9/20 - Ober

9/21 - OFF

9/22 - Maeda

9/23 - Lopez - final start of the regular season, by this time they should have clinched already

9/24 - Gray - final start of the regular season

9/25 - OFF

9/26 - Ryan - final start of the regular season

9/27 - Keuchel

9/28 - Ober

9/29 - Maeda

9/30 - Varland

10/1 - Bullpen game 162

10/2 - OFF

10/3 - Lopez

10/4 - Gray

10/5 or 10/7 - Ryan

I think having Lopez and Gray start playoff games with that much rest is asking for massive trouble.

Space out their starts but dont go 10 days off before a playoff game.

[DJL44]

21 minutes ago, GusGus11 said:

I think having Lopez and Gray start playoff games with that much rest is asking for massive trouble.

Space out their starts but dont go 10 days off before a playoff game.

It's pretty easy to have them throw a simulated game in between starts.

[Patzky]

8 hours ago, strumdatjag said:

Maybe this iOS too obvious a topic.  BUT -Somebody has to start this - it pops up in other threads - it needs its own!!!

The Twins should go with a four man rotation in the playoffs.  The first three are easy:

Lopez then Gray then Ryan. 
Then the tough choice would be Keuchel with Maeda in the pen.  

Ober and Varland are question marks as to whether they make the playoff roster (and almost certainly in the bullpen if they do).  

Who actually goes where should depend on the matchups, injuries and how the particular pitchers have performed over the last 2-3 weeks of the season. 

If an opposing team has trouble with left handers, Keuchel should certainly start as #4 (if performing adequately) over Maeda - and at this point Keuchel seems to deserve the start regardless of those analytics. 

 

 The unexpected but wonderful choice for Game 4.. is Chris Paddack.

[tony&rodney]

The playoffs are for the best players. Unless Ober has not been helped by the recent respite from pitching there is a clear starting  pitcher order: Lopez, Gray, Ryan, Ober. Nobody needs to go on short rest. Our starters have been good all year. The bats need to show strong.

[BsuNemo]

I really LOVE Ober long term. Like a modern day Brad Radke (plus 3-5 or mph on his stuff) but I've gotta go with Maeda as our 4th starter. He shows up in big games and has been there before. I worry Ober is gassed at this point and I'm not sure that's fixable in three weeks. 

[insagt1]

To be realistic...we all have the  Twins winning round one and moving on to round two. Twins haven't even won a post season GAME in......the number of games is too ugly to mention. Lets win a game...then we can dream on!

[Battle ur tail off]

16 hours ago, BsuNemo said:

I really LOVE Ober long term. Like a modern day Brad Radke (plus 3-5 or mph on his stuff) but I've gotta go with Maeda as our 4th starter. He shows up in big games and has been there before. I worry Ober is gassed at this point and I'm not sure that's fixable in three weeks. 

I gotta go with neither as starters for that first series. Put Maeda in the pen for sure, but I would leave Ober completely off the playoff roster until the 2nd round. 

[Rosterman]

If he is willing, I would love Keuchel in the pen, gioving 2-3 strong innings complimenting a right-handed starter. I would also like to see the Twin elevate Moran back in, repalcing Headrick, to give the Twins four lefties in the pen.

Do we bring back Ober, or trust Maeda. Who mkakes the playoff roster as an additional long guy, then. Varland? Winder? Balazovic? 

I want to see Stewart, Alcala and even Paddack gives us 3-5 outings to see what they still can contribute. Possible?

[strumdatjag]

Since I started this -  Yes, I being presumptuous when I go beyond Lopez, Gray and Ryan in the first series.   If - and I say IF, the Twins get to the ALDSand beyond, I don’t think they should go beyond a four man rotation.  At this point, I would give the nod to a Keuchel followed by Maeda.  Hopefully, Bailey Ober can return to good form, but it should be obvious before putting him into a starting role again (ahead of Keuchel and Maeda). 

[laloesch]

On 9/11/2023 at 11:34 AM, Trov said:

In the first round they will need only 3 starters.  Depending on how that goes, lets hope the best and we win in 2, then for second round it is best of 5.  Assuming there is enough rest, we could even get lucky and only need 3 in round 2, if we sweep again.  Assuming we do not sweep the second round, I would want to look at matchups.  Personally, I like Ober and he has had a great year, but has looked a little gassed.  If some rest leading up to playoffs, and avoid rust, can make him available I would go him.  However, if the matchup looks like Dallas could have a good outing run him out there.  

In a perfect world we would not have to figure that out until the 3rd round because we swept the first 2. 

I think that's doable.  The bullpen is what scares the bee gees out of me.