The Twins Need to Approach the Deadline with 2024 in Mind

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

The Twins are going to have a lot of turnover this offseason. Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, Tyler Mahle, Joey Gallo, Emilio Pagan, Donovan Solano, and Michael A Taylor are unrestricted FA. Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco may have options/opt-outs exercised. There are also some DFA/Non-Tender candidates like Celestino, Garlick, Gordon, and Stashak. That's thirteen players who have contributed in the past two seasons. With three members of the opening day rotation and a full outfield likely to leave, the Twins need to keep next season in the back of their heads when acquiring talent this offseason.

Trading for an inning-eating 4th/5th starter and a right-handed outfielder who are controlled through 2024 seems paramount. The outfield would look pretty barren if MAT, Gallo, Kepler, and Gordon leave. Even if Gordon stays, an outfield of Castro/Kirilloff/Larnach/Gordon/Wallner does not inspire much confidence, especially defensively. Players like Ramon Laureano, Connor Joe, and Dylan Carlson could fit this bill (cheap/medium/expensive). With a top three of Lopez/Ober/Ryan, the Twins could look to in-house options like Varland, Paddack, SWR, Headrick, and Sands to fill the last two spots. However, having 40% of your rotation relying on unreliable players seems ill-advised. Adding one arm to help alleviate concerns sounds like a good plan. Trevor Williams, Paul Blackburn, and Patrick Sandoval could be on the Twins radar (cheap/medium/expensive). 

What do you think? The market is fairly dry this year, but if the Twins can address some of their offseason issues in the next week or two, would you do it?

[gunnarthor]

I think we should be modest sellers. We can still win the central if we traded, say, Gray and Gallo. Your premise is right, we should be getting controllable players back although the only major trade asset we might have would be Duran. (I'd be ok trading him if we got a haul).

[Vanimal46]

I’m not sure Falvey has the luxury of planning for 2024 right now. If the opportunity presents itself to acquire an OF with multiple years of control let’s do it. I don’t know who that will be. 

[PseudoSABR]

I don't want to empty the farm to get controllable players like we've done at past deadlines.  Make modest acquisitions of rentals would be the way I'd go. 

[Mike Sixel]

If you could magically get a right handed hitting OF that is good and has more than 1 year of control for Wallner and Larnach and some random guy in the 15+ range of prospects, I do that all day. 

A: Who is trading such a player?

B: What would you realistically have to give up? 

If you have to give up pitching, no thanks. This rotation is not deep next year as it is.....

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

9 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

If you could magically get a right handed hitting OF that is good and has more than 1 year of control for Wallner and Larnach and some random guy in the 15+ range of prospects, I do that all day. 

A: Who is trading such a player?

B: What would you realistically have to give up? 

If you have to give up pitching, no thanks. This rotation is not deep next year as it is.....

Lane Thomas has 2.5 years of team control left, and is currently sporting a .293/.342/.488 line. According to BTV, he'd cost exactly what you said: Wallner+Larnach+Top-15 prospect. Washington could look to move him, as I doubt their window of contention will open before 2025 and they have an intriguingly high amount of OF prospects.

[SwainZag]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

I think we should be modest sellers. We can still win the central if we traded, say, Gray and Gallo. Your premise is right, we should be getting controllable players back although the only major trade asset we might have would be Duran. (I'd be ok trading him if we got a haul).

I know it's be beaten to death, but unless you are getting something significantly better than a comp pick, there's really no reason to trade Gray.  I can't imagine there is much interest Gallo and would only be in a deal via a salary swap.

IMO It would be completely asinine to even consider moving Duran...even for a big haul.  

[nicksaviking]

1 hour ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

Trading for an inning-eating 4th/5th starter and a right-handed outfielder who are controlled through 2024 seems paramount. The outfield would look pretty barren if MAT, Gallo, Kepler, and Gordon leave. Even if Gordon stays, an outfield of Castro/Kirilloff/Larnach/Gordon/Wallner does not inspire much confidence, especially defensively. Players like Ramon Laureano, Connor Joe, and Dylan Carlson could fit this bill (cheap/medium/expensive). With a top three of Lopez/Ober/Ryan, the Twins could look to in-house options like Varland, Paddack, SWR, Headrick, and Sands to fill the last two spots. However, having 40% of your rotation relying on unreliable players seems ill-advised. Adding one arm to help alleviate concerns sounds like a good plan. Trevor Williams, Paul Blackburn, and Patrick Sandoval could be on the Twins radar (cheap/medium/expensive). 

I'm with you here, and probably in the minority, but I also like the idea of another controllable arm for the rotation to make sure it's still a force in the coming years.

I'd like to know what the Yankees plan is. They're the Yankees and are a better team than the Twins, but I wonder if Clark Schmidt would be had if the Twins offered up Varland and one of their MLB ready corner players.

[gunnarthor]

43 minutes ago, SwainZag said:

I know it's be beaten to death, but unless you are getting something significantly better than a comp pick, there's really no reason to trade Gray.  I can't imagine there is much interest Gallo and would only be in a deal via a salary swap.

IMO It would be completely asinine to even consider moving Duran...even for a big haul.  

We don't need to rehash here but my opinion on Gray is that if we offer the QO, he'll accept it. I don't think a lot of teams are going to want to sign him and lose a pick and his agent will probably know that. 

On Duran, yeah, he's good. But he's not that good and it wasn't that long ago we were worried about his health. So see what we can get. Not sure relievers can get the hauls of past years but why not find out? We gave up 5 prospects for Fulmer and Lopez last year. 

[SwainZag]

7 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

We don't need to rehash here but my opinion on Gray is that if we offer the QO, he'll accept it. I don't think a lot of teams are going to want to sign him and lose a pick and his agent will probably know that. 

On Duran, yeah, he's good. But he's not that good and it wasn't that long ago we were worried about his health. So see what we can get. Not sure relievers can get the hauls of past years but why not find out? We gave up 5 prospects for Fulmer and Lopez last year. 

Gray will probably be the top starter on the market if he hits free agency next year, there's little to no chance he takes a 1 year deal when a 3-4 year deal will be sitting there for him.  Has any pitcher of his quality not gotten signed because of a comp pick attached?  Losing a late 2nd round pick for a contender is a no brainer.

What's the point of trading one of the better young relief pitchers in the game who has 5 years of control left for more prospects?  You hope of the prospects turn into a guy like Duran, trading him no makes absolutely no sense.

[USAFChief]

1 hour ago, SwainZag said:

Gray will probably be the top starter on the market if he hits free agency next year, there's little to no chance he takes a 1 year deal when a 3-4 year deal will be sitting there for him.  Has any pitcher of his quality not gotten signed because of a comp pick attached?  Losing a late 2nd round pick for a contender is a no brainer.

What's the point of trading one of the better young relief pitchers in the game who has 5 years of control left for more prospects?  You hope of the prospects turn into a guy like Duran, trading him no makes absolutely no sense.

Not to mention, if it comes to that sign me up for Gray at 1/$20m in 2024 all day. 

 

 

[lecroy24fan]

3 hours ago, gunnarthor said:

 although the only major trade asset we might have would be Duran. (I'd be ok trading him if we got a haul).

Duran for Ohtani

[Twins_Fan_in_NJ]

Will be curious to see what the Twins do with Polanco. He's been a fixture but with the way Julien's hitting, perhaps they want to use Polanco's money on starting pitcher or a high-leverage bullpen arm to go with Duran. 

Wouldn't mind Solano back on a one-year deal. Twins have been fortunate to have the positional versatility with Solano, Castro and Farmer. Yeah, they've all struggled at the plate at various times, but who hasn't on this team and they've really allowed Rocco to mix and match and survive injuries to Lewis and Polanco.

No idea what the Twins do with MAT. Castro's getting more time in CF and Celestino's waiting in the wings. Maybe they rotate with Buxton (hopefully he's able to play the field in 2024) and MAT is cut loose.

The rotation has four arms - Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack. Paddack may need a month or two next season to get his stuff back - similar to Kenta - but they gave him an extension for a reason and he's going to pitching every 5th day if health allows. That begs the question - bring Gray or Maeda or do you give Varland the 5th starters spot? I seem to be in the minority but I'm not a huge Gray fan. He seems to implode after 4-5 innings and that's just who he is at this point in his career - if that's what he gives you, why not give the spot to Varland and divert that ~$20MM elsewhere?

I'd love to see the Twins invest more in the pen but would anyone be shocked if they address that spot by re-signing Pagan and signing 4-5 depth arms for St. Paul in early January?

 

[Cory Engelhardt]

They don't have to fill next year's holes before August 1. They have an offseason to figure out moves otherwise. 

And really, who's to say Royce Lewis isn't the right handed hitting outfielder next year right?

As far as pitching, there is hope of Paddack coming back. Maeda and Gray can be given the QO (the way Maeda looked last night, why not?) and otherwise, there is decent depth that is already at AA, so they can plan around that.

I want this deadline to help the 2023 team first and foremost. If they do add a player or players controlled in 2024, that's icing on the cake.

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

5 hours ago, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Will be curious to see what the Twins do with Polanco. He's been a fixture but with the way Julien's hitting, perhaps they want to use Polanco's money on starting pitcher or a high-leverage bullpen arm to go with Duran. 

Wouldn't mind Solano back on a one-year deal. Twins have been fortunate to have the positional versatility with Solano, Castro and Farmer. Yeah, they've all struggled at the plate at various times, but who hasn't on this team and they've really allowed Rocco to mix and match and survive injuries to Lewis and Polanco.

No idea what the Twins do with MAT. Castro's getting more time in CF and Celestino's waiting in the wings. Maybe they rotate with Buxton (hopefully he's able to play the field in 2024) and MAT is cut loose.

The rotation has four arms - Lopez, Ryan, Ober, Paddack. Paddack may need a month or two next season to get his stuff back - similar to Kenta - but they gave him an extension for a reason and he's going to pitching every 5th day if health allows. That begs the question - bring Gray or Maeda or do you give Varland the 5th starters spot? I seem to be in the minority but I'm not a huge Gray fan. He seems to implode after 4-5 innings and that's just who he is at this point in his career - if that's what he gives you, why not give the spot to Varland and divert that ~$20MM elsewhere?

I'd love to see the Twins invest more in the pen but would anyone be shocked if they address that spot by re-signing Pagan and signing 4-5 depth arms for St. Paul in early January?

 

I guess the point of my post was to help prevent this last bit. The Twins' payroll goes down about $60M in the offseason ($39M if they pick up options on Kepler and Polanco). As much money as that is for the Twins to spend, it is not enough to grab a starting outfielder, setup man, two staters, and a backup infielder. If the Twins don't address multiple of thos concerns by 08/01/23, we run the risk of seeing Celestino as an everyday CF, Cole Sands taking the ball every fifth day, and/or Jorge Alcala in a leverage role. 

[Mike Sixel]

20 hours ago, SwainZag said:

Gray will probably be the top starter on the market if he hits free agency next year, there's little to no chance he takes a 1 year deal when a 3-4 year deal will be sitting there for him.  Has any pitcher of his quality not gotten signed because of a comp pick attached?  Losing a late 2nd round pick for a contender is a no brainer.

What's the point of trading one of the better young relief pitchers in the game who has 5 years of control left for more prospects?  You hope of the prospects turn into a guy like Duran, trading him no makes absolutely no sense.

Aaron Nola says hi. And Ohtani. And Sherzer. And Stroman. 

[ashbury]

20 hours ago, lecroy24fan said:

Duran for Ohtani

When we lose in the 2027 post-season I do not want Duran out there collecting the save in the final game.

When we win the 2027 World Series I want Duran closing out that last game.

Either scenario, Duran's on my no-trade list, regardless of the 2023 benefits.

[SwainZag]

1 hour ago, Mike Sixel said:

Aaron Nola says hi. And Ohtani. And Sherzer. And Stroman. 

Fair.   I wasn't including Otani because he's not a realistic option for 90% of teams.   But good call on the other 3.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, SwainZag said:

Fair.   I wasn't including Otani because he's not a realistic option for 90% of teams.   But good call on the other 3.

Your main point likely stands. Gray will be valued on the FA market, and will get 2-3 years at 20MM plus per year, imo. 

[Doctor Wu]

On 7/20/2023 at 6:15 AM, lecroy24fan said:

Duran for Ohtani

and give them Buxton too!

[weitz41]

Barring injury I think the Twins are in a decent place with starters for 2024. Lopez/Ryan/Ober/Paddack/Varland. You can bank the salaries of Gray/Meada/Mahle for roster improvements. Whether that's a free agent starter, BP or position players IDK.

Polanco's return from the IL may determine whether he's on the 2024 roster or not. Celestino and Gordon I think will be on the 40 man. The rest are likely gone, some hopefully by August 1st.

Wallner, Larnach, Martin, Lee will take some of those roster spots. Then there's possibly guys like Kiersey, Severino, Camargo, Williams and Helman.

With that much payroll and this many position players vying for 26-man roster and 40-man spots to protect them from the rule 5 draft. I think it's the Twins are in a pretty good spot, with available payroll to add a high-end player or two.

Just my 2 cents.

[TwinsDr2021]

17 hours ago, Mike Sixel said:

Your main point likely stands. Gray will be valued on the FA market, and will get 2-3 years at 20MM plus per year, imo. 

This depends on how he finishes the year, if he last ten or so starts go similar to the last 10, I bet that drops a few teams at least out of the Gray is worth 20 million.

[TwinsDr2021]

12 minutes ago, weitz41 said:

Then there's possibly guys like Kiersey, Severino, Camargo, Williams and Helman.

Helman will be 28, Williams 27, Keirsey 27 next year and Carmargo is a catcher, lets be honest if any of those players play on the Twins next year or really ever (Not including Carmargo in that statement) things have gone horribly wrong.

[weitz41]

1 hour ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Helman will be 28, Williams 27, Keirsey 27 next year and Carmargo is a catcher, lets be honest if any of those players play on the Twins next year or really ever (Not including Carmargo in that statement) things have gone horribly wrong.

There is such a thing as late bloomers in MLB. Brian Dozier comes to mind. Also, guys like the Nats Joey Meneses. My list is based on roster spots more than age. Helman {util), Williams (RH 1B), Keirsey (CF) and none are shoe ins just outside possibilities. A FA signing pushes any of them off my list.

[IndianaTwin]

On 7/19/2023 at 6:32 PM, USAFChief said:

Not to mention, if it comes to that sign me up for Gray at 1/$20m in 2024 all day. 

 

 

Indeed. 

I'm in the group that says his recent comments mean very little.

So you heard it here first: Gray to the Reds this offseason.

The only thing his comments mean to me is that he's mature enough to know it's not exclusively about money. He had good experiences in Cincy. He was born in Nashville, went to school there, and still lives there (I think). 

If the Reds decline their $20M option on Votto, their biggest 2024 commitment is the $12M they still owe Wil Myers, followed by the $3.6M they still owe Griffey. Both contracts conclude next year. They also already have an extension in place with Greene that costs only $3.333M next year. They have three low-dollar Arb 3 guys, seven cheap Arb 1 or Arb 2 guys and a host of young talent. 

With the talent they have and the success they are having this year, I think it screams, "Throw a wad at Gray for 3 years." If I'm the Reds, I give him 3/$75M and even frontload it to be $30M/$25M/$20M to help with future flexibility. Add an option for the fourth year at $20M. And if the Cards offer a similar deal, consider going higher.

I'd love to see him back with the Twins next year, but I think it makes too much sense for Cincy.   

[LA Vikes Fan]

On 7/19/2023 at 12:49 PM, Mike Sixel said:

If you could magically get a right handed hitting OF that is good and has more than 1 year of control for Wallner and Larnach and some random guy in the 15+ range of prospects, I do that all day. 

A: Who is trading such a player?

B: What would you realistically have to give up? 

If you have to give up pitching, no thanks. This rotation is not deep next year as it is.....

Dylan Carlson or Lane Thomas are two allegedly available guys we might want. That package seems about right for Thomas, a little heavy for Carlson. The Cardinals want pitching and have enough OFs so you'd probably have to substitute SWR and Varland for Laranch and Wallner to make it work. Frankly. Washington might require a pitcher plus the OF instead of 2 OFs. 

Here's a question - would you trade one of our "near MLB ready" pichers and Wallner for a Dylan Carlson or Lane Thomas? How about Larnach? Think better pitcher needs to go with Larnach, say Varland, while a lesser or younger pitcher can go with Wallner, say SWR, Festa, Canterino, or Raya.

I would actually really consider trading Wallner and SWR for Carlson or Thomas, and would even add in a mid level pitching prospect in a package for Thomas. I'd consider Festa instead of either of them in a package. Would you? I wouldn't trade Varland as part  of a deal for either guy.   

[Mike Sixel]

4 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Dylan Carlson or Lane Thomas are two allegedly available guys we might want. That package seems about right for Thomas, a little heavy for Carlson. The Cardinals want pitching and have enough OFs so you'd probably have to substitute SWR and Varland for Laranch and Wallner to make it work. Frankly. Washington might require a pitcher plus the OF instead of 2 OFs. 

Here's a question - would you trade one of our "near MLB ready" pichers and Wallner for a Dylan Carlson or Lane Thomas? How about Larnach? Think better pitcher needs to go with Larnach, say Varland, while a lesser or younger pitcher can go with Wallner, say SWR, Festa, Canterino, or Raya.

I would actually really consider trading Wallner and SWR for Carlson or Thomas, and would even add in a mid level pitching prospect in a package for Thomas. I'd consider Festa instead of either of them in a package. Would you? I wouldn't trade Varland as part  of a deal for either guy.   

I'm not trading Varland right now. They have all of three starters signed for next year......

I'd deal SWR and I was/am a believer, he's still barely old enough to drink. I don't know about either of those guys being all that interesting. Neither has the upside I'd want if trading for someone frankly.

[Major League Ready]

21 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

I guess the point of my post was to help prevent this last bit. The Twins' payroll goes down about $60M in the offseason ($39M if they pick up options on Kepler and Polanco). As much money as that is for the Twins to spend, it is not enough to grab a starting outfielder, setup man, two staters, and a backup infielder. If the Twins don't address multiple of thos concerns by 08/01/23, we run the risk of seeing Celestino as an everyday CF, Cole Sands taking the ball every fifth day, and/or Jorge Alcala in a leverage role. 

This is a bit over the top.  For starters, they don't need two starters.  They have Ryan / Lopez / Ober and Paddack back with Varland capable of being a 5th starter.  They certainly, don't need to trade for one especially when they likely make a QO to Gray and Maeda could also be a candidate for a QO also if he continues to look this good.  Festa and Raya are also candidates to be ready at some point next year.  

There is a good chance Lewis ends up in the OF.  Martin and Kiersey Jr. are also possibilities for 2024.   We also should not assume Buxton never plays the OF again.  Remember when many people here assume Kirilloff was toast?

I would try to get an outfield prospect that is close to ready in trade for Polanco.  That won't help 2023 but it won't hurt either.  Trading Polanco and moving on from Kepler in whatever form opens up $60M to spend next year.  That's more than adequate to fill their holes.  

[LA Vikes Fan]

49 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

I'm not trading Varland right now. They have all of three starters signed for next year......

I'd deal SWR and I was/am a believer, he's still barely old enough to drink. I don't know about either of those guys being all that interesting. Neither has the upside I'd want if trading for someone frankly.

I agree with you on Varland. I think he stands a good chance of being in the 2024 rotation. I also agree that SWR has a chance to be an MLB starter at some point in 2024 and beyond.  

I disagree on the value of Lane Thomas and Carlson because of our needs for 2024 and beyond. I sincerely hope that Gallo does not return; he's not what we need. I'm 50/50 on Kepler because I'm not sure that the last 6 weeks of Kepler or even 90% of that is sustainable, and I question whether Buxton will return to full time OF duty. I'm lukewarm on Wallner's long term future anywhere but DH and I'm tepid at best on Larnach. That takes from a glut of OFs to a shortage next year. A young, controllable OF who is league average or better now with upside has real value to the 2024-2026 Twins. Are Carlson or Thomas better than Gordon and/or Castro? Right now, Thomas looks a lot better and Carlson looks at least close to the same with more potential. To me, getting one of those guys is worth SWR plus Wallner or Larnach. Not worth Varland, Festa, or Raya. For Thomas, I would even consider giving up Wallner, SWR and a decent but not high end prospect.  My thinking is that helps now and could really help in 2024-2026. 

[TwinsDr2021]

3 hours ago, weitz41 said:

There is such a thing as late bloomers in MLB. Brian Dozier comes to mind. Also, guys like the Nats Joey Meneses. My list is based on roster spots more than age. Helman {util), Williams (RH 1B), Keirsey (CF) and none are shoe ins just outside possibilities. A FA signing pushes any of them off my list.

Late Bloomers are very rare, Whit Merrified and Cronenworth are better examples, Dozier was in the majors at 25, Meneses played for a team that was 55 - 107 last year and was a 1 WAR player and barely replacement level this year on a team with a .396 winning percentage, he isn't an example of a late bloomer, he is an example of player that would be in the minors for any team actually trying to win. Pretty much the same scenario that Merrifield and Cronenworth were given chances.

There is little to no chance those 3 players go into the 24 season as anything more than emergency replacements, like Contreras and Stevenson were this year. If they are this FO should be fired immediately they have younger more talented players that should be promoted before them.

I love a good story as much as the next but you just don't see winning teams relying on players like this, they call up their stud prospects that they believe will be difference makers.