The Twins Need to Approach the Deadline with 2024 in Mind

[FlyingFinn]

On 7/20/2023 at 7:32 AM, Twins_Fan_in_NJ said:

Celestino's waiting in the wings.

Sure was hoping he would flourish in St. Paul this year. Batting .245 with only 2 homers with the Saints makes me think he is a worse version of Taylor, much worse on the bases. I would rather have Stevenson at this point, even though he's a little older. I'm not even sure he stays on the 40 man roster through the winter at this point. The last two months should point the Twins in the right direction on him.

[Hawkeye Bean Counter]

I stand pat at the deadline unless someone gives us an overpay for one of our outfielders which isn't likely.  Only things I am looking for are a cheap RP and or cheap RH OF which can generally come cheap (along the lines of what Braves did in 2021 and hope someone gets hot.   I don't trade any prospects in the top 20.  Only someone I might lose to the rule 5.  I think we will have ample openings this year with all the players dropping off.  The key will be Sonny Gray - the Twins will place Qualifying offer.  Gray has 3 options,  except the qualifying offer, likely get a salary of more than $50 million netting the Twins a late 1st round draft pick or retire.  Options 1 or 2 are great for the Twins and #2 still has the highest probability even with Grays comments.  I do think the grind is wearing on Gray I am hoping for a strong end of the season that will revitalize him a bit.  

Pitching is still pretty strong for next year.  Lopez, Ryan and Ober are your top 3.  You have Varland Paddack, Winder as your 4-6.  Then gets a little more questionable.  Could see the Twins get a 1 year rental (ugh).  

Maeda will be interesting.  If his mph continue to go up and stay up,  he begins to regain his 2020 form and someone will take a chance on that.  If he pitches strong the rest of the year he likely has the second best chance of being offered a qualifying offer.  Could easily see him getting 40-60 mil on a 3 year contract.   Gallo could get a 2 year 25 million contract possibly 30 million but would need to get hot to end the season.   Currently only Sonny Gray would get the offer,  with Maeda a decent possibility.  He is beginning to pitch strong.   

[weitz41]

3 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Late Bloomers are very rare, Whit Merrified and Cronenworth are better examples, Dozier was in the majors at 25, Meneses played for a team that was 55 - 107 last year and was a 1 WAR player and barely replacement level this year on a team with a .396 winning percentage, he isn't an example of a late bloomer, he is an example of player that would be in the minors for any team actually trying to win. Pretty much the same scenario that Merrifield and Cronenworth were given chances.

There is little to no chance those 3 players go into the 24 season as anything more than emergency replacements, like Contreras and Stevenson were this year. If they are this FO should be fired immediately they have younger more talented players that should be promoted before them.

I love a good story as much as the next but you just don't see winning teams relying on players like this, they call up their stud prospects that they believe will be difference makers.

 

No, I get it. But the whole covid thing makes me hold when I probably should fold. I think my point is AB or Pitches thrown should buy a little leeway with the older prospects. Most everything to do with covid and 2019 is or was beyond their control and I get the normal of age but like the Astros and their * it may be the wise way to go before you look at their birthdate. A little extra runway may unearth something worthwhile..More of a wait there may be something there then a these guys are really good.