Ranking the Importance of the Twins Players Returning from Injury

[Cody Christie]

Injuries have again impacted the Twins during the 2023 campaign, but hope is on the horizon with a handful of players on track to return. Here’s a ranking of the top five players returning from injury and what each can offer the roster.

Image courtesy of Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

The team expects each injured player below to return at some point before the season ends. Below is a brief explanation of their injury and an expected timeline for their return. The Twins haven’t been the most reliable at meeting those timelines in the past, but the current medical staff was new at the beginning of the year and can be given the benefit of the doubt. Other injured players that didn’t make the top five include Jose Miranda, Jorge Alcala, and Chris Paddack.

5. Nick Gordon, OF/INF
Injury: Right Tibia Fracture
Expected Return: September
Minnesota needs to improve offensive production from the corner outfield spots, and Gordon was looking to build off a 2022 season where he posted a 110 OPS+ in 136 games. Unfortunately, Gordon struggled out of the gate in 2023 with a .503 OPS in 34 games before fouling a ball off his leg and fracturing his right tibia. He had the cast and brace removed from his leg near the end of June. Gordon has yet to start running but has been working in the weight room. The Twins have other corner outfield options, but the 2022 version of Gordon would assist the offense. 

4. Brock Stewart, RP
Injury: Right Elbow Soreness
Expected Return: August
Stewart saved the bullpen earlier in the season when multiple players struggled in late-inning roles. He’s previously dealt with other arm injuries, and the Twins are attributing his latest injury to his increased workload in 2023. In 25 2/3 innings, he posted a 0.70 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and a 35-to-11 strikeout-to-walk ratio. At the beginning of July, he threw from 90 feet without issue, but he will require a rehab stint before returning to the MLB level. Minnesota will likely be in the market for relief pitching at the trading deadline, especially since Stewart won’t return until August.

3. Caleb Thielbar, RP
Injury: Right Oblique Strain
Expected Return: August
Like Stewart, Thielbar was a critical component of the bullpen in the first half. Oblique injuries are complicated, as he tried to return early this season before reinjuring himself. Over the weekend, he threw a 30-pitch bullpen session and expects to throw another one early this week. His next steps would be to throw live batting practice before starting a rehab assignment. He doesn’t seem likely to return to the roster before the trade deadline, so the Twins will likely be looking for bullpen upgrades.

2. Royce Lewis, 3B
Injury: Left Oblique Strain
Expected Return: August
Lewis has been unable to catch a break regarding staying healthy, a trend that follows many of the team’s recent top prospects. Over the last two seasons, injuries have limited him to 38 big-league games, but he’s posted a 131 OPS+. He is expected to begin baseball activities this week after doing other core work over the last week. He may return to the line-up by early August, but more will be known after the team returns from their current road trip. There’s been some speculation that the Twins might be interested in trading for a third baseman, but it seems more likely for the team to rely on other players with the hope Lewis returns shortly after the deadline. 

1. Jorge Polanco, 2B
Injury: Left Hamstring Strain
Expected Return: Late July
Minnesota’s offense has lacked a particular element without infielders like Polanco and Lewis. His return can provide a veteran presence to the line-up, but the Twins will need to find a way for him and Edouard Julien to coexist in the same line-up. Polanco began a rehab assignment on July 16, and he will likely need multiple weeks to ramp up before joining the Twins. In 30 games this season, Polanco has posted a 102 OPS+ with nine doubles and five home runs. If the Twins make the playoffs, the line-up is better, with Polanco playing at full strength. 

How would you rank the injured Twins players on their importance to the club in the second half? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[danielp19653]

I think I would slide Thielbar and Stewart ahead of Polanco and Lewis purely because Julien and Solano are holding down the other two spots and performing well. Bullpen depth I think provides more immediate value over what we are currently rolling out 

[GKuehl]

I would have it ranked 

1. Lewis — We desperately need him back at 3B, especially with how well he was playing. 

2. Polanco — Would allow us to rotate Julien and Polanco at 2B and DH. 

3. Stewart — One of our go-to guys in the bullpen.

4. Thielbar — Key piece, especially since Moran isn’t your typical lefty due to his Changeup being his best pitch. 

5. Paddack — Could be a nice middle reliever in September, a definite upgrade over Sands, Winder, Headrick, etc. 

[Mike Sixel]

How is Polanco number 1? There is zero evidence they'll find a way to play him and Julien together.

Lewis by far is number 1. Their 3B are not good at hitting ..... 

Stewart and Thielbar are tied for 2nd for me.

Polanco is 4th (if I thought they'd get him and Julien in the lineup, and keep AK there and keep Lewis there, he'd be second)

Gordon.....I mean, is he any better than the utility guys they have? Maybe, I think so.....but they won't put Wallner in the OF, they aren't putting Gordon there, and if Polanco, Julien, Lewis are up, where do you even put Gordon (with Castro on the roster especially)?

[Major League Ready]

8 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

How is Polanco number 1? There is zero evidence they'll find a way to play him and Julien together.

Lewis by far is number 1. Their 3B are not good at hitting ..... 

Stewart and Thielbar are tied for 2nd for me.

Polanco is 4th (if I thought they'd get him and Julien in the lineup, and keep AK there and keep Lewis there, he'd be second)

Gordon.....I mean, is he any better than the utility guys they have? Maybe, I think so.....but they won't put Wallner in the OF, they aren't putting Gordon there, and if Polanco, Julien, Lewis are up, where do you even put Gordon (with Castro on the roster especially)?

Would have wrote exactly the same thing and just to add some numbers to your position.  Polanco's wRC+ this year is 103.  Julien's wRC+149.  Polanco's a better defender but how can his return be the most important?

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Would have wrote exactly the same thing and just to add some numbers to your position.  Polanco's wRC+ this year is 103.  Julien's wRC+149.  Polanco's a better defender but how can his return be the most important?

Julien has been one of the best hitters in the game, let alone on the Twins. And it isn't close at all. 

13th best wrc+ in all of baseball of those with at least 100 at bats....and people are pining for Polanco to return?

[IndianaTwin]

I'd put Polanco and Lewis at the top. Points to Polanco for stability and presence and to Lewis for upside. Tiebreaker to Polanco for his likely being available sooner. 

If it's 2022 Jose Miranda, I'd slot him next. They'd be followed by the two relievers, though I appreciate @GKuehl's reminder on Paddack. Not really sure that Gordon adds much to the mix. 

Topping them all would be the healthy return of Buxton. 

[Major League Ready]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Julien has been one of the best hitters in the game, let alone on the Twins. And it isn't close at all. 

13th best wrc+ in all of baseball of those with at least 100 at bats....and people are pining for Polanco to return?

I believe this is known as a nice problem to have.  

[IaBeanCounter]

Since you said "returning from injury" and not from the injured list.  I would submit Buxton as the most important player to return to health.  Listening the the Fox broadcast last night they said his back and hip were bothering him.  Based on his recent production he should be on the injured list.  

Based on the players on the injured list I would want another bat first, either Polanco or Lewis.  2) Thielbar (taking away Moran appearances) 3) Stewart 4) Second bat of Polanco or Lewis 5) An effective Dallas Keuchel either as another LH reliever or co-starter with Maeda (4 innings each and a reliever for the 9th).  Gray would also be a candidate to team with Keuchel. 

 

Edit: On Buxton Indiana Twin beat me to the submit tab.

[gman]

1. Stewart - Duran needs some help in the bullpen besides Jax. We don't need to see Duran get burned out trying to cover to much.

2. Lewis - A good hitter maintaining third base. Add another bat in this lineup.

3. Theilbar - see #1.

4. Polanco - They need offense from whatever source. Polanco, when healthy, is probably the teams best veteran hitter.

5. I would also go with Paddock here. Right now I don't see where Gordon would fit in.

[karcherd]

I would not count on Paddack this year.  First this was his second TJ surgery and there is not a lot known about the recovery timeline, they are all different.  And remember last Maeda was supposed to back in September and then they shut him down.  The Twins are very conservative with injury management, I would be surprised if they have him pitch this year.

[mikelink45]

I am not sure - but if Stewart can do what he has been doing he is number one.  If Thielbar can retain his excellence he is number two.  Lewis is the bat we want.  Then it doesn't matter to me.  The mgmt is too set on Gallo, Buxton, Kepler for me to dream that others will get a fair chance to make a difference. 

[big dog]

I don't see Nick Gordon helping this team this year or in the future. I'd much rather have Castro.

[longstrangetrip]

I agree with others who have Buxton returning to health as far and away the most important factor.  Watching him swing and miss fat fastballs is very telling.  He's not helping in any way now, and needs to be put on the IL until he can show he's at least 75% healthy.  Julien needs to be the everyday DH with Polanco at 2b.

[TwinsDr2021]

#1 is Lewis

#2 is Stewart

#3 is Thielbar

At this point having Polanco and Gordon being hurt probably helps the team more than them coming back. (Of course that is because Buxton has to DH)

[Riverbrian]

I think ranking Polanco as #1 is reasonable. We've seen Polanco being very good with a bat in his hands. 

However... If Polanco returning means Julien goes down to make room. Polanco's return importance ranking would slide all the way 25th most important. 

[JD-TWINS]

LEWIS #1 need at 3B - need every ounce of available offense 

THIELBAR #2 need in Relief - experience & depth

STEWART #3 need in Relief - depth

POLANCO #4 need at 2B - played 65 games w/o and only 30 games with to date.

Paddack - no chance he pitches in high leverage contests in September - no roster space for him. Maybe gets a look last 2 weeks of season if race is decided.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

I'm going with Lewis at #1.  He will solidify some infield defense and if he continues to hit will be a huge upgrade over who we have been trotting out there since his injury.

Theilbar and Stewart are #'s 2/3 in any order.  Both are important and will add a lot if they are true to form.

I think Paddack is a wild card.  If he is on the comeback/rehab trail, he could be a very effective arm in the bullpen even if it isn't in high leverage.  Innings still need to be covered.

I'm a Polanco fan, but I'm not sure his return has much effect on the team.  He is a better defender (a little) than Julien, but Julien is doing everything we could imagine on offense, which is probably as much as/more than Polanco has ever provided for the team.  If there is a team in need of a second baseman, Polanco would have some value in a trade, whether for a relief pitcher or a right handed bat.  Remember, if we make a trade, somebody has to leave the roster. 

As for Gordon. . . he was a nice story last year, but this year Castro is giving us a better version, offensively and defensively of a good utility player than Gordon provided.  To me, he is best utilized as a sweetener thrown in to a trade for a relief pitcher.  Again, frees up a roster spot for a new player from a trade.