Did a new season really start?

[VivaBomboRivera!]

(Update - Twins clinch the American League Central Division championship at game 174.  Eleven games over .500 since 2 - 6 Game 81 loss at Atlanta, when their record was 40 - 41.  A very different second half-season, indeed.)

Putting this statement to the test by tracking a few under-performing indices from the first half over the next several weeks to see if any new habits have taken root. The jury will be out at least several more games, but feel free to talk amongst yourselves.

One stat not tracked is hard hit rate. Welcome any reader suggestions for source data.

 

Edited September 23, 2023 by VivaBomboRivera!
Updating after each game

[Craig Arko]

BA up, K% down. Those are good changes.

[LA Vikes Fan]

Thanks for doing this. . It would be interesting to track slugging % and runs per game. It might be a way to see if the new emphasis on contact and a better two strike approach has lead to more runs and how it has effected power. 

[CRF]

So far, so good...but Rocco sure doesn't/didn't have anything to do with it. 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

9 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

Thanks for doing this. . It would be interesting to track slugging %

You're welcome! 😀
SLG is meaningful, yes, but more fundamental problem for the past two years has been putting the ball in play and keeping the line moving.

Runs/game before 30 June: 4.18

Since: 4.5

[VivaBomboRivera!]

5 minutes ago, CRF said:

So far, so good...but Rocco sure doesn't/didn't have anything to do with it. 

 

[stringer bell]

K% is a better indicator than raw strikeouts. If a team gets through their order five times (45 PAs) and Ks 10 times, it is a 22.2% K rate, about league average. I always get peeved when Bremer quotes strikeouts percentage per at bat as it should be pegged to plate appearances. 

Percentage of games with 3 runs or more and 4 runs or more would be interesting as well.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

30 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

K% is a better indicator than raw strikeouts. If a team gets through their order five times (45 PAs) and Ks 10 times, it is a 22.2% K rate, about league average. I always get peeved when Bremer quotes strikeouts percentage per at bat as it should be pegged to plate appearances.

Thanks for the tip. There's much worse company to be with than Dick Bremer.  Table fixed.

[Squirrel]

20 hours ago, CRF said:

So far, so good...but Rocco sure doesn't/didn't have anything to do with it. 

I’d agree with that. Execution is always on the players. It has been up to this point and it will be after this point. They are the ones turning in poor performances so it only right for them to turn it around and start turning in good performances.

[Dave Borton]

2 hours ago, Craig Arko said:

BA up, K% down. Those are good changes.

2 SFs in one game rather than trying to HR; rather than a total of 14 for 81 games.

[LA Vikes Fan]

3 hours ago, VivaBomboRivera! said:

You're welcome! 😀
SLG is meaningful, yes, but more fundamental problem for the past two years has been putting the ball in play and keeping the line moving.

Runs/game before 30 June: 4.18

Since: 4.5

I agree. My thought was to see if we are sacrificing power as measured by slugging % in order to increase OBP and decrease our strikeout %. I'm really curious to see if adopting a better two strike approach and/or a more contact oriented approach is having a decreasing effect on overall power. It seems like the conventional wisdom is that by being more contact oriented, even if its only with two strikes, that teams sacrifice a lot of power/extra base hits. I think that's wrong and would love to see the data to see. Is there a source to find that data? 

[stringer bell]

4 minutes ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree. My thought was to see if we are sacrificing power as measured by slugging % in order to increase OBP and decrease our strikeout %. I'm really curious to see if adopting a better two strike approach and/or a more contact oriented approach is having a decreasing effect on overall power. It seems like the conventional wisdom is that by being more contact oriented, even if its only with two strikes, that teams sacrifice a lot of power/extra base hits. I think that's wrong and would love to see the data to see. Is there a source to find that data? 

My thought this past week was that this isn't a team with enough power to go for the max slugging approach. Buxton and Gallo are slugger types, but they don't have anyone else who is really that type. On the other hand, they lack enough contact types and speed to string together many crooked number innings without homers. Sort of like being late on fastballs and ahead of off-speed pitches.

[VivaBomboRivera!]

9 hours ago, LA VIkes Fan said:

I agree. My thought was to see if we are sacrificing power as measured by slugging % in order to increase OBP and decrease our strikeout %. I'm really curious to see if adopting a better two strike approach and/or a more contact oriented approach is having a decreasing effect on overall power. It seems like the conventional wisdom is that by being more contact oriented, even if its only with two strikes, that teams sacrifice a lot of power/extra base hits. I think that's wrong and would love to see the data to see. Is there a source to find that data? 

We could watch how SLG moves over the next several weeks and see if it correlates with a change in runs or BA, but the current data set is just the right workload to be manageable and see if the story really has changed.  Briefly considered also tracking team RISP and LOB, but left off for same reason.
Don't let that stop you from tracking it if you wish, and please add your erudite analysis to the conversation. 😉

[mnfireman]

13 hours ago, CRF said:

So far, so good...but Rocco sure doesn't/didn't have anything to do with it. 

Oh boy, an insightful take on the team's manager. 

You're also saying that Rocco doesn't/didn't have anything to do with all the K's, bad AB's and LOB's, which would be correct.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 7/4/2023 at 9:32 AM, CRF said:

So far, so good...but Rocco sure doesn't/didn't have anything to do with it. 

So it’s Rocco’s fault when they’re bad, but it’s they players when they are good?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

On 7/4/2023 at 9:36 AM, VivaBomboRivera! said:

You're welcome! 😀
SLG is meaningful, yes, but more fundamental problem for the past two years has been putting the ball in play and keeping the line moving.

Runs/game before 30 June: 4.18

Since: 4.5

The Moneyball maxim prioritizing OBP as a key metric does still hold water. SLG drives runs, but avoiding outs can bunch up runs.

balls in play forces fielding to be more effective, but as we saw in Miranda’s last stint in Minneapolis, quality of contact matters too. 
 

interestingly, OBP is up .03 in our small sample size.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

You guys do realize they are playing the Royals, right?

[LA Vikes Fan]

Yes it's the Royals but let's enjoy the moment while it's here. Who knows, maybe this continues. A girl can dream, right?

[Number3]

The main thing is to hang around the .500 mark and win the Central. 6 games against the Cleveland team from Aug 8 to Sep 6 loom large. They are now even in the loss column. Do the analytic geek stuff all you want but beating out the Cleveland team is all that matters. The reason they actually play the games is that once the games actually start the stats don't matter. Each game takes on a life of its own. The best players should play and the teams with the best players that play to their potential and avoid injuries usually win. See Byron Buxton. By the way, Royce Lewis must be Byron Buxton the second as getting injured running to first base is classic Buxton.

[HokieRif]

I’m taking the last week with a grain of salt. The hitting has improved but right now the improved hitting is a statistical outlier in this season. Will it continue and prove the first half was a slump? Or will it regress back to the mean?

The Baltimore series result was important, but it’s not lost in me how few runs we scored in games 2 and 3. Our recent sweep against the Royals is something we should have done. In fact, just about every MLB team not based in Oakland should be walking into a series against KC expecting to sweep. I’ll take it, but again it should be expected, and it’s not like we flexed and beat them by 10 runs each night. 
 

i will be watching (yea, actually watching on tv) the Baltimore series this weekend. Taking at least 2 is important, I don’t want a loss on Sunday, and I need to see a collection of solid ABs up and down the lineup. If those things happen then I can start to cautiously adjust my 2nd half expectations. 

[Craig Arko]

19 minutes ago, HokieRif said:

I’m taking the last week with a grain of salt. The hitting has improved but right now the improved hitting is a statistical outlier in this season. Will it continue and prove the first half was a slump? Or will it regress back to the mean?

The Baltimore series result was important, but it’s not lost in me how few runs we scored in games 2 and 3. Our recent sweep against the Royals is something we should have done. In fact, just about every MLB team not based in Oakland should be walking into a series against KC expecting to sweep. I’ll take it, but again it should be expected, and it’s not like we flexed and beat them by 10 runs each night. 
 

i will be watching (yea, actually watching on tv) the Baltimore series this weekend. Taking at least 2 is important, I don’t want a loss on Sunday, and I need to see a collection of solid ABs up and down the lineup. If those things happen then I can start to cautiously adjust my 2nd half expectations. 

Maybe it is regressing back to the mean. In statistics, regression goes both ways.

[Vanimal46]

Looks like the same 2023 Twins offense to me. 9 games since the players only meeting, with 5 games scoring 2 or less runs. 

[VivaBomboRivera!]

1 minute ago, Vanimal46 said:

Looks like the same 2023 Twins offense to me. 9 games since the players only meeting, with 5 games scoring 2 or less runs. 

As of now, I'd agree. Yesterday's collapse and the loss on the 7th really put a hole in the progress they had made. The only index that is still notably better than before 30 June is strikeout rate.

[Number3]

The debacle against Baltimore speaks for itself. By the way, the Orioles are loaded with their own draft picks and players developed in their own system and are close to catching the Rays in the East. They also have 2 former Twins #1 picks on their roster. The Twins are essentially a good AAA team wearing MLB uniforms with the exception of starting pitching. Buxton was pathetic against the Birds and a couple of abs looked like he was striking out on purpose. Baldelli looked like he was totally lost. Luckily for Twins it seems that MLB in general has very few really good teams so they should still be in the running for Central through no fault of their own.

[SpicyGarvSauce]

On 7/5/2023 at 11:56 AM, SpicyGarvSauce said:

You guys do realize they are playing the Royals, right?

Boy, who didn't see this coming?

[VivaBomboRivera!]

Still inconclusive after 10 games. Batting average and runs/game up slightly, strikeout rate down slightly.  It's hard not to like a 6 - 4 record, but only two of those wins came against a postseason contender. The Twins will not play a team currently better than .500 until they meet the Diamondbacks in August.  Now is the time.

[USAFChief]

On 7/5/2023 at 10:41 AM, Richie the Rally Goat said:

 

balls in play forces fielding to be more effective, but as we saw in Miranda’s last stint in Minneapolis, quality of contact matters too

I agree, but "moneyball" (shorthand for analytics) most certainly does not.

I don't believe this, but one of the tenets of current modern analytics is that neither pitchers nor hitters can control "balls in play." "Everyone's BABIP will regress to the mean." Quality of contact isn't controllable. 

That's one of the basic principles of FIP, for example. Ignore balls in play, because pitchers have no control over them.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

I agree, but "moneyball" (shorthand for analytics) most certainly does not.

I don't believe this, but one of the tenets of current modern analytics is that neither pitchers nor hitters can control "balls in play." "Everyone's BABIP will regress to the mean." Quality of contact isn't controllable. 

That's one of the basic principles of FIP, for example. Ignore balls in play, because pitchers have no control over them.

But then why measure barrels and hard hit rate?

Pitching and hitting stats normalize at different rates, but there isn’t a FIH, just a FIP.

[ashbury]

4 hours ago, USAFChief said:

"Everyone's BABIP will regress to the mean." Quality of contact isn't controllable.

[USAFChief]

5 hours ago, Richie the Rally Goat said:

But then why measure barrels and hard hit rate?

Pitching and hitting stats normalize at different rates, but there isn’t a FIH, just a FIP.

Well, for one thing, someone somewhere decided HRs aren't balls in play.

A Theoretical hitter hits 100 HRs in a row followed  by a soft tapper back to the pitcher has a BABIP of .000.