Has Derek Falvey Established His Pitching Pipeline?

[TwinsDr2021]

16 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

I don't think anyone in good faith can say that we have an established pitching pipeline. It's so barren that we've had to trade for Gray, Lopez, Mahle, and Gray (among others), which added salary and took away talent. The reason to have a pipeline is so that very thing doesn't happen.

Don't forget Paddock, since the off season prior to Covid, the Twins have traded for Maeda, Gray, Paddock, Mahle and Lopez. That is five starting pitchers (I don't include Ryan in this group because it was sell off of Cruz, and a great trade, and probably closer to the a pipeline development)

Since the 2020 season there has been 464 games. Ober has 43 starts, Varland has 15. That is basically it from the pipeline, now if you want to include Ryan that totals 105 games. Not my idea of a pipeline and with Gray and Maeda mostly likely gone next year, the Twins are going to be struggling with depth again, because no rookie/prospect has stepped up this year.

Lopez, Ryan, Ober, and two maybes in Varland and Paddock, and ?????

[tony&rodney]

Perhaps the most appropriate response is, who is Derek Falvey?

[Rod Carews Birthday]

17 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Louie Varland and his 5.30 FIP is "indicative of pipeline success?" 

Randy Dobnak?

Caleb Thielbar?

Wtf is this nonsense? Seriously....

Frank Viola had an ERA well over 5.00 through 56 starts in the majors.

Brad Radke had an ERA of nearly 5.00 through 63 starts in the majors.

There are very few pitchers who come in and immediately dominate. 

[gunnarthor]

5 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Frank Viola had an ERA well over 5.00 through 56 starts in the majors.

Brad Radke had an ERA of nearly 5.00 through 63 starts in the majors.

There are very few pitchers who come in and immediately dominate. 

And how old were they after those 56 and 63 starts? 

[KirbyDome89]

8 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Frank Viola had an ERA well over 5.00 through 56 starts in the majors.

Brad Radke had an ERA of nearly 5.00 through 63 starts in the majors.

There are very few pitchers who come in and immediately dominate. 

Are they the exception or the rule?

[laloesch]

38 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Louie Varland and his 5.30 FIP is "indicative of pipeline success?" 

Randy Dobnak?

Caleb Thielbar?

Wtf is this nonsense? Seriously....

I gotta agree. I'm not impressed either.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

6 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

And how old were they after those 56 and 63 starts? 

Younger than Varland.  Cory Kluber, on the other hand was the owner of a 5.00+ ERA as a 26 year old.  Cliff Lee was a 5.00+ ERA at 25, the year before he broke out and became really good.  My whole point is that it can take a bit to discover what they can do and dismissing Varland already is pretty fast.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

10 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Are they the exception or the rule?

I would say that they are neither and that they fit into a pretty big group of players that hit the majors, take a couple of years, and then start to excel.  Some pitchers are good early.   A fellow named Blyleven comes to mind.  Some don't get really good until their 30's, like Randy Johnson.  So far, Louis Varland has done more to make me embrace him than he has done to make me dismiss him.  We'll see how that materializes in the future.

[laloesch]

4 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

You could make a list like this every year going back X amount of years. I assume the question was which pitcher(s) in the minors are blowing people away and we fans just can't wait for them to get here and are willing to push them here now. and the pitchers in your list aren't the answer to that question.

Nothing against Festa or Raya, but my hope for them this year was to be so good that they would push if not pass this list of pitchers SWR/Headrick/Winder/Sands/Balazovic/ Henriquez/Enlow. I don't think that has happened so the list I made is basically the next wave.  Lets be honest the pitching prospects list is pretty bare. (Not that a few couldn't step it up and be good Lewis for example)

I just don't get the fascination with SWR.  The guy's minor league stats are not remarkable at all. 

[Major League Ready]

31 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Frank Viola had an ERA well over 5.00 through 56 starts in the majors.

Brad Radke had an ERA of nearly 5.00 through 63 starts in the majors.

There are very few pitchers who come in and immediately dominate. 

Berrios was pretty bad at first.

[gunnarthor]

5 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Younger than Varland.  Cory Kluber, on the other hand was the owner of a 5.00+ ERA as a 26 year old.  Cliff Lee was a 5.00+ ERA at 25, the year before he broke out and became really good.  My whole point is that it can take a bit to discover what they can do and dismissing Varland already is pretty fast.

The reason you know the odd ducks like Johnson or Lee who broke out relatively late is because those were odd. So, yes, some people take longer than others but they might also have other things going for them - like being considered a strong prospect (which we could see on top 100 lists) with potential to being a top of the rotation arm or being a top draft pick, giving reason for the club to support the player longer. 

That said, I like Varland. I hope he establishes himself as something more than a back end starter. But when we're talking about a pitching pipeline, we wan to see a copy of what the Twins FO pulled off in the 2000s. That means smart trades (Ryan fits well here), rule v/amatuer free agents, waiver picks ups, but also development of internal players (which we haven't seen enough of)

[gunnarthor]

1 minute ago, Major League Ready said:

Berrios was pretty bad at first.

Berrios was an established ML pitcher at 23. 

[KirbyDome89]

1 minute ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I would say that they are neither and that they fit into a pretty big group of players that hit the majors, take a couple of years, and then start to excel.  Some pitchers are good early.   A fellow named Blyleven comes to mind.  Some don't get really good until their 30's, like Randy Johnson.  So far, Louis Varland has done more to make me embrace him than he has done to make me dismiss him.  We'll see how that materializes in the future.

Players struggling their first time (or two) up isn't uncommon. Those guys becoming All Stars, Cy Young finalists, or HOF'ers.....that's not. If you want to believe the Louie Varland will become Randy Johnson don't let me stop you, but the names you're throwing around are by far the exception and not the rule. 

 

4 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Younger than Varland.  Cory Kluber, on the other hand was the owner of a 5.00+ ERA as a 26 year old.  Cliff Lee was a 5.00+ ERA at 25, the year before he broke out and became really good.  My whole point is that it can take a bit to discover what they can do and dismissing Varland already is pretty fast.

Nobody is dismissing him, but counting him as a success story right now is ridiculous. He's been worse (in a shorter period of time) than Bundy or Archer was last year, and I'd argue that using either of those two is setting the bar too low to begin with. 

[Cris E]

I think a pipeline produces a bunch of guys, someone every year, so that you don't have to go out of the org to replace someone who gets hurt or old. But that doesn't mean you keep pulling Fried and Strider and Wright out of your hat, that's wildly above the average. A pipeline is about regularity where Louie Varland and Bailey Ober are the type of guys you crank out while waiting for the Johan Santana or Jose Berrios studs to arrive. 

The pipeline is cranking up in MN so that when Maeda leaves and we need a #4 or #5 to slide in the back end we can move guys up. There are guys back there like SWR who can pitch OK until the guys who can Pitch like Prielipp land and grab the top jobs.  If Sands or Balazovic take an extra year to arrive or get hurt or get traded then we1l try out some others. But Duran and Ober are up and playing well so things are starting to work.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

26 minutes ago, KirbyDome89 said:

Players struggling their first time (or two) up isn't uncommon. Those guys becoming All Stars, Cy Young finalists, or HOF'ers.....that's not. If you want to believe the Louie Varland will become Randy Johnson don't let me stop you, but the names you're throwing around are by far the exception and not the rule.

I'm not calling him an All Star, a Cy Young finalist, or a HOF'er.  I'm merely saying that he needs a little time.  Will he become a great pitcher?  Who knows.  He currently presents with the potential of a pitcher worthy of a spot in the rotation.  If that happens, he certainly is a success story for the pipeline given where he was drafted. 

The average debut age of a major league pitcher from 2015-2020 was 24.8 years old.  Not being in the league by 22 or 23 does not doom them to failure.  Certainly there are pitchers who are up and good at that age, but there are also some who take more time.  I'm not measuring them by whether they become Hall of Famers.  I just want to know what they can do for my team in the next few years. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

14 minutes ago, Cris E said:

I think a pipeline produces a bunch of guys, someone every year, so that you don't have to go out of the org to replace someone who gets hurt or old. But that doesn't mean you keep pulling Fried and Strider and Wright out of your hat, that's wildly above the average. A pipeline is about regularity where Louie Varland and Bailey Ober are the type of guys you crank out while waiting for the Johan Santana or Jose Berrios studs to arrive. 

The pipeline is cranking up in MN so that when Maeda leaves and we need a #4 or #5 to slide in the back end we can move guys up. There are guys back there like SWR who can pitch OK until the guys who can Pitch like Prielipp land and grab the top jobs.  If Sands or Balazovic take an extra year to arrive or get hurt or get traded then we1l try out some others. But Duran and Ober are up and playing well so things are starting to work.

This is exactly right.  Not every pitcher the pipeline produces will be a star.  We just need to keep producing guys who will produce for the team, either in the rotation or the bullpen, or who can be used as trade chips to fill out other needs. 

[jorgenswest]

So many factors go into a pitchers path to the majors. 

• Did they get drafted from college, high school or the international draft?
• Did they lose a season or even more to Tommy John or other serious injury?
• did they lose a season in the minors to COVID.
• Did it take them longer to find that second or third pitch or establish command?

In Varland’s case, he went college and his first full age 22 season was lost to COVID. That puts him at 23 in his first professional season. I think it is pretty impressive and a credit to his hard work that he made his major league debut at 24. He has work to do and I think he will continue to do that hard work.

[Major League Ready]

1 hour ago, gunnarthor said:

Berrios was an established ML pitcher at 23. 

Ok.  Fair enough but let's not forget the point.  MANY pitchers struggle at first.  Getting down on Varland or any other young pitcher because they are not dominant out of the gate ignores the history of many very good pitchers.

[KirbyDome89]

27 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

I'm not calling him an All Star, a Cy Young finalist, or a HOF'er.  I'm merely saying that he needs a little time.  Will he become a great pitcher?  Who knows.  He currently presents with the potential of a pitcher worthy of a spot in the rotation.  If that happens, he certainly is a success story for the pipeline given where he was drafted. 

The average debut age of a major league pitcher from 2015-2020 was 24.8 years old.  Not being in the league by 22 or 23 does not doom them to failure.  Certainly there are pitchers who are up and good at that age, but there are also some who take more time.  I'm not measuring them by whether they become Hall of Famers.  I just want to know what they can do for my team in the next few years. 

If you're going to sell me on Varland's potential, not his recent performance, we've answered the question of whether he should be included on the list of "successes."

[KirbyDome89]

7 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Ok.  Fair enough but let's not forget the point.  MANY pitchers struggle at first.  Getting down on Varland or any other young pitcher because they are not dominant out of the gate ignores the history of many very good pitchers.

Why conflate restraint with "getting down on Varland." 

History probably isn't the argument you want to make here...

[Rod Carews Birthday]

1 hour ago, KirbyDome89 said:

If you're going to sell me on Varland's potential, not his recent performance, we've answered the question of whether he should be included on the list of "successes."

OK.  You've got me.  Varland doesn't have a sub 3.00 ERA and isn't mowing down hitters.  He's had some successes and has had a couple of pretty bad games.  He's young and got delayed by a year due to covid.  I'm willing to give him some additional chances.  If the Twins were to DFA Varland he would be claimed instantly by every single MLB team, but let's not call that a success.  If the standard is going to be this high, then current pitching pipelines are limited to Tampa Bay and Atlanta. 

[KirbyDome89]

5 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

OK.  You've got me.  Varland doesn't have a sub 3.00 ERA and isn't mowing down hitters.  He's had some successes and has had a couple of pretty bad games.  He's young and got delayed by a year due to covid.  I'm willing to give him some additional chances.  If the Twins were to DFA Varland he would be claimed instantly by every single MLB team, but let's not call that a success.  If the standard is going to be this high, then current pitching pipelines are limited to Tampa Bay and Atlanta. 

Nobody, myself included, is arguing that Varland can't or won't stick.

Give him as much time as you want. I don't care, that's not the argument. He hasn't had any sort of sustained MLB success so to point to him as an example of pipeline production is incredibly premature. I don't know how anybody can argue with that right now, but here we are.

[DocBauer]

A couple quick thoughts/opinions first:

1] Very few teams EVER...including the much discussed Cleveland model...simply draft of sign international arms exclusively to build their rotation, or pen. Even the very best teams at developing arms trade for other arms, young or even established. Cleveland and Tampa have both done this to a large and successful degree.

2] I couldn't care less if a rotation arm...or quality pen arm...was drafted in the 1st round by the Twins, or the 20th. I only care if they turn out well.

3] Some young arms look great early and then flame out, some arrive a little later due to many factors, and some actually become dominant front end arms in their late 20's or around 30yo. Do we care? Is a pitcher only worthwhile if he's a stud at 22yo and has a HOF career? You seldom, if ever, draft an ACE level SP. You draft and sign and trade and arms develop, or don't. Some end up ax good RP, a few turn out to be consistent All Stars and precious few turn out to be an actual ACE.

4] While time marches on and the clock is ticking...as it always does...the very first draft of Falvey and Levine took place summer of 2017. If an 18yo arm was selected in that draft, they would be all of 24yo right now. Not exactly old to be debuting, nearing debuting, or maybe in their 2nd year. A college draftee would, generally, be about 26yo right now, probably in their 2nd to 3rd year either at the ML level, or bouncing a bit up and down to injuries and the such. My only point being anyone drafted the first 3-4yrs by them wouldn't be expected to normally be anything close to an established, front of the rotation stud at this point. It does take time to develop an arm, even if there are obvious exceptions.

All that being said, as to the OP's original question: "Have they developed their pitching pipeline?" My answer is YES. They have done so. But like any pipeline, or even a faucet, the flow isn't turned up to full volume yet.

Do we hold the FO responsible for injuries to Canterino, Winder, and Balazovic? IDK, maybe we do. But if we do that, then any far reaching of opinionated arm should also include credit for trading for a near ready arm in Ryan who has been developed by them and seemingly surpassed any projections.

Jax's development from an inexperienced arm...due to his early military obligation...in to a quality pen arm should be part of their success story, despite not drafting him. While Duran just wasn't ultimately built to be a rotation arm, he's a tremendous success story. Or does the pipeline only include SP?

Since Ober's debut, nurtured as he was, he's been a pretty damn good looking arm, who keeps getting better. Is he any less of a success if he's a mainstay for years because he didn't debut at 23? If you want to pick on the rookie Varland for having a few bad games before being sent down for a re-set with Maeda coming back up, I have no way to convince you that the rookie showed promise in 2022 and was looking really good this year before a couple poor starts. To me, both of these arms show real promise, with Ober ahead at this point.

My criteria for a "pitching pipeline" is finding and developing young arms to be quality starters AND relievers as you need both. It's NOT draft and develop #1 and #2 SP every year and just plug them in every couple of seasons. It doesn't work that way. It never has. You assemble as many arms as you can, develop them, and keep a nice flow of young arms for both spots. SOME turn out to be special.

I consider the acquisition and development of Ryan as part of the pipeline. I also consider Ober, Varland, Jax, and Duran as part of it as well. If Moran continues his upward trend, I'd throw him in there also. While it remains to  be seen what the futures of Canterino, Winder, and Balazovic hold, if any of them overcome their setbacks to be quality pen options, then they also are a win for the proposed pipeline debate, even if they didn't turn out as initially hoped.

But do we ONLY want to view the pipeline as starting arms? Well, there is some decent hope for Headrick as a back of the rotation arm, though I think he might be better in the pen ultimately. Former top prospect Enlow has shaken off rust and deserved his shot to AAA. Festa has jumped to AA in only his 2nd season and has flashed enough to produce some exciting numbers, despite being a work in progress, and has been invited to the Futures Games. Raya is being brought along slowly,  but has some of the most exciting stuff in the system. Not including the traded Petty, he has the best stuff from a HS kid since Berrios. And if you haven't been paying close attention, the Twins drafted pretty heavy in projectable arms in the 2022 draft and they are all pretty much looking really good at A levels, some already promoted. And there's others I'm leaving out, like Nowlin, who is a LH with a VERY live arm that might figure it out to be a quality rotation arm, OR, a potentially devastating pen arm.

And notice I haven't even mentioned Prielipp as an option that we just need to get right, get on the mound, and potentially be a real riser next year.

There is a GAP between what's on the 40 man, and how some of the younger arms ultimately turn out, vs a couple high system arms such as Enlow and Festa, before we head down to A ball and see what's going on down there. That's due to injuries and trades. I can't and won't deny that GAP that exists right now.

But if at least part of the criteria is for the pipeline is young arms to fill the rotation..and the pen IMO...to avoid churn and dumpster diving and the such, I again offer Ryan, Ober, Varland, Duran, Jax, and a collection of arms in Winder, Canterino, Balazovic, Moran, Headrick, Enlow, and Festa that are POTENTIALLY ready or near ready in 2023 and 2024 add to the rotation and pen.

Again, the pipeline is NOT turned up to full volume as of yet. I'd say it's cranked up to about HALF capacity. But I think the pipeline is in place. The rest of 2023 and what we see happen in 2024 will determine how "open" the pipeline will be.

 

[TwinsDr2021]

10 hours ago, DocBauer said:

A couple quick thoughts/opinions first:

1] Very few teams EVER...including the much discussed Cleveland model...simply draft of sign international arms exclusively to build their rotation, or pen. Even the very best teams at developing arms trade for other arms, young or even established. Cleveland and Tampa have both done this to a large and successful degree.

2] I couldn't care less if a rotation arm...or quality pen arm...was drafted in the 1st round by the Twins, or the 20th. I only care if they turn out well.

3] Some young arms look great early and then flame out, some arrive a little later due to many factors, and some actually become dominant front end arms in their late 20's or around 30yo. Do we care? Is a pitcher only worthwhile if he's a stud at 22yo and has a HOF career? You seldom, if ever, draft an ACE level SP. You draft and sign and trade and arms develop, or don't. Some end up ax good RP, a few turn out to be consistent All Stars and precious few turn out to be an actual ACE.

4] While time marches on and the clock is ticking...as it always does...the very first draft of Falvey and Levine took place summer of 2017. If an 18yo arm was selected in that draft, they would be all of 24yo right now. Not exactly old to be debuting, nearing debuting, or maybe in their 2nd year. A college draftee would, generally, be about 26yo right now, probably in their 2nd to 3rd year either at the ML level, or bouncing a bit up and down to injuries and the such. My only point being anyone drafted the first 3-4yrs by them wouldn't be expected to normally be anything close to an established, front of the rotation stud at this point. It does take time to develop an arm, even if there are obvious exceptions.

All that being said, as to the OP's original question: "Have they developed their pitching pipeline?" My answer is YES. They have done so. But like any pipeline, or even a faucet, the flow isn't turned up to full volume yet.

Do we hold the FO responsible for injuries to Canterino, Winder, and Balazovic? IDK, maybe we do. But if we do that, then any far reaching of opinionated arm should also include credit for trading for a near ready arm in Ryan who has been developed by them and seemingly surpassed any projections.

Jax's development from an inexperienced arm...due to his early military obligation...in to a quality pen arm should be part of their success story, despite not drafting him. While Duran just wasn't ultimately built to be a rotation arm, he's a tremendous success story. Or does the pipeline only include SP?

Since Ober's debut, nurtured as he was, he's been a pretty damn good looking arm, who keeps getting better. Is he any less of a success if he's a mainstay for years because he didn't debut at 23? If you want to pick on the rookie Varland for having a few bad games before being sent down for a re-set with Maeda coming back up, I have no way to convince you that the rookie showed promise in 2022 and was looking really good this year before a couple poor starts. To me, both of these arms show real promise, with Ober ahead at this point.

My criteria for a "pitching pipeline" is finding and developing young arms to be quality starters AND relievers as you need both. It's NOT draft and develop #1 and #2 SP every year and just plug them in every couple of seasons. It doesn't work that way. It never has. You assemble as many arms as you can, develop them, and keep a nice flow of young arms for both spots. SOME turn out to be special.

I consider the acquisition and development of Ryan as part of the pipeline. I also consider Ober, Varland, Jax, and Duran as part of it as well. If Moran continues his upward trend, I'd throw him in there also. While it remains to  be seen what the futures of Canterino, Winder, and Balazovic hold, if any of them overcome their setbacks to be quality pen options, then they also are a win for the proposed pipeline debate, even if they didn't turn out as initially hoped.

But do we ONLY want to view the pipeline as starting arms? Well, there is some decent hope for Headrick as a back of the rotation arm, though I think he might be better in the pen ultimately. Former top prospect Enlow has shaken off rust and deserved his shot to AAA. Festa has jumped to AA in only his 2nd season and has flashed enough to produce some exciting numbers, despite being a work in progress, and has been invited to the Futures Games. Raya is being brought along slowly,  but has some of the most exciting stuff in the system. Not including the traded Petty, he has the best stuff from a HS kid since Berrios. And if you haven't been paying close attention, the Twins drafted pretty heavy in projectable arms in the 2022 draft and they are all pretty much looking really good at A levels, some already promoted. And there's others I'm leaving out, like Nowlin, who is a LH with a VERY live arm that might figure it out to be a quality rotation arm, OR, a potentially devastating pen arm.

And notice I haven't even mentioned Prielipp as an option that we just need to get right, get on the mound, and potentially be a real riser next year.

There is a GAP between what's on the 40 man, and how some of the younger arms ultimately turn out, vs a couple high system arms such as Enlow and Festa, before we head down to A ball and see what's going on down there. That's due to injuries and trades. I can't and won't deny that GAP that exists right now.

But if at least part of the criteria is for the pipeline is young arms to fill the rotation..and the pen IMO...to avoid churn and dumpster diving and the such, I again offer Ryan, Ober, Varland, Duran, Jax, and a collection of arms in Winder, Canterino, Balazovic, Moran, Headrick, Enlow, and Festa that are POTENTIALLY ready or near ready in 2023 and 2024 add to the rotation and pen.

Again, the pipeline is NOT turned up to full volume as of yet. I'd say it's cranked up to about HALF capacity. But I think the pipeline is in place. The rest of 2023 and what we see happen in 2024 will determine how "open" the pipeline will be.

 

Got to be honest with this type of definition the last FO was a pitching pipeline dream.

Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, Duffey, Pressly, Rogers, Hidenberger, Perkins, May, Duensing, Guerrier, Swarzak, Diamond, Liriano, Hendriks, Blackburn,  They had list  of studs prospects like Stewart, Jay, Thrope, Chargois, Meyer, Burdi, Romero and Gonzalez.  I mean there was a not stop list of studs that didn't turn out or last very long and a few that did well. What is different than this current FO? I mean currently it is two starters (Ryan and Ober) and few bullpen arms (Duran, Jax). I don't count minor league players as part of of a pipleline,

[ewen21]

15 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

Frank Viola had an ERA well over 5.00 through 56 starts in the majors.

Brad Radke had an ERA of nearly 5.00 through 63 starts in the majors.

There are very few pitchers who come in and immediately dominate. 

That is a very short list compared to the list of guys with similar numbers after that many starts that never panned out and are long forgotten.

[TwinsDr2021]

14 hours ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

The average debut age of a major league pitcher from 2015-2020 was 24.8 years old.  Not being in the league by 22 or 23 does not doom them to failure.  Certainly there are pitchers who are up and good at that age, but there are also some who take more time.  I'm not measuring them by whether they become Hall of Famers.  I just want to know what they can do for my team in the next few years. 

Can you tell us what age the average top or middle tier starter debuted?

Side note I think Varland will be a fine major league pitcher going forward, but I don't count guys pitching in the minors as part of a current pipeline,

[ewen21]

3 minutes ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Got to be honest with this type of definition the last FO was a pitching pipeline dream.

Berrios, Gibson, Mejia, Duffey, Pressly, Rogers, Hidenberger, Perkins, May, Duensing, Guerrier, Swarzak, Diamond, Liriano, Hendriks, Blackburn,  They had list  of studs prospects like Stewart, Jay, Thrope, Chargois, Meyer, Burdi, Romero and Gonzalez.  I mean there was a not stop list of studs that didn't turn out or last very long and a few that did well. What is different than this current FO? I mean currently it is two starters (Ryan and Ober) and few bullpen arms (Duran, Jax). I don't count minor league players as part of of a pipleline,

Being optimistic is fine, but when it starts to shroud reality it becomes problematic.  

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, ewen21 said:

That is a very short list compared to the list of guys with similar numbers after that many starts that never panned out and are long forgotten.

It is a list of only the first two prominent Twins pitchers that came to mind who no one would argue about.  I made no attempt at an exhaustive list, nor would that likely convince you.  There are certainly plenty more pitchers who have taken a couple of years to develop, and also a list of pitchers who didn't pan out.  As a side note, there are also a number of pitchers who came in hot and then flamed out due to injury or ineffectiveness. 

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

Can you tell us what age the average top or middle tier starter debuted?

Side note I think Varland will be a fine major league pitcher going forward, but I don't count guys pitching in the minors as part of a current pipeline,

Nope.  Sorry.  That's research that would take more time than I have right now.   I will leave that to you since I'm certain that figuring out who qualifies as an average top or middle tier starter in MLB would be problematic to agree upon.

Going back to the original question of whether Derek Falvey has established a pitching pipeline, it is obviously going to depend on how you define what a pipeline looks like -- a subject upon which reasonable minds can disagree.  In my mind, progress has been made, but calling it a perfect completed pipeline would be premature.  It seems reasonable to say that there are certainly more quality pitchers in the pipeline now than there were five years ago, even with a few trades removing some.  I'm optimistic enough to think that we are beginning to reap the benefits of this with pitchers like Ryan, Duran, Ober, Jax, and the like comprising a substantial part of our current pitching staff.  Will Varland claim a role?  Or will Headrick, Sands, Belazovic, Moran, or Alcala develop into strong MLB pitchers?  Time will tell, but odds are pretty good.  Some will surely be trade fodder, but others will likely have a substantial role in a future Twins pitching staff.  That's more than we had a few years ago, so let's keep at it. 

[ewen21]

14 minutes ago, Rod Carews Birthday said:

It is a list of only the first two prominent Twins pitchers that came to mind who no one would argue about.  I made no attempt at an exhaustive list, nor would that likely convince you.  There are certainly plenty more pitchers who have taken a couple of years to develop, and also a list of pitchers who didn't pan out.  As a side note, there are also a number of pitchers who came in hot and then flamed out due to injury or ineffectiveness. 

Fair enough.  Then again, in the mid 2000s we were sold on the idea that we had a pipeline of young pitching and Terry Ryan acted as if the likes of Kevin Slowey, was untouchable.  In fact, go back as far as 2006 with Garza and find me a starting pitcher who was any good outside of Jose Berrios?  Between Garza and Berrios is over a decade.  Baker, Slowey, Blackburn, Lohse, Mays all had promise and then seemingly got worse as time went on.....

 

Forgive me for this mini-rant, but it is my main bone of contention with this organization.  Mid-market organizations like ours should make raising quality starting pitching its prime focus and we have failed at doing so.  If you can do that then you aren't constantly in the market trying to find overpriced starting pitchers.  We need to raise our own starting pitchers to a reasonable extent and we can't seem to do it.  Can we do that now?  THis remains to seen,