Get In. We’re Going Shopping

[Greggory Masterson]

How have Derek Falvey and Thad Levine fared buying at the deadline? As the 2023 Trade Deadline approaches and the Twins sit in first place, let’s look at every time the current front office has bought at the deadline.

Image courtesy of Raj Mehta-USA TODAY Sports

Regarding things like making trades, no one wins every time, not even the Dodgers and Rays (see Yordan Álvarez and Joe Ryan, respectively). However, a good team wins their trades more often than they lose them. Deadline buys are especially complicated because a team almost always knowingly trades away valuable long-term pieces for short-term rewards.

Deadline trades have been hot on Twins fans’ minds for the last month after Tyler Mahle got shut down for the season to get Tommy John surgery and Jorge López’s struggles reached a head. I, your humble narrator, have combed through every trade that the Twins have made since October 2016 (when Falvey and Levine were brought on) that involved at least one MLB player and was not for cash considerations or players to be named later. 

You, my only friends, can make your own judgment. Below, I’ve listed every trade that could be considered a buy near the deadline. These trades occurred in 2017, 2019, and 2022, as the team was in contention in each of those three years. 

Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. Performance isn’t considered if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the trade being discussed. Obviously, this analysis doesn’t include future performance, either. This information was gathered as a snapshot on June 23, 2023. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the full picture isn’t available.

I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. 

For an example of why comparing statistics isn’t ideal, let’s skip to the 2019 Sam Dyson trade. Statistically, the Twins won the trade. Dyson was worth -0.3 bWAR, but the players traded for him have amounted to -0.7 bWAR. No one truly won that trade, value-wise. Perhaps more importantly, the Twins paid an opportunity cost to acquire him, as he was their main addition that deadline. Trading for him stopped the team from trading a similar package for a different reliever. However, the stats do provide some background.

Without further ado, here’s my subjective order, from best to worst.

1. 7/27/19: Minnesota acquires Sergio Romo (42.2 IP, 125 ERA+, 0.4 bWAR), Chris Vallimont (did not reach Minnesota) from Miami for Lewin Diaz (343 PA, 55 OPS+, 0.1 bWAR), +0.3 bWAR for Minnesota.
Romo was one of two relievers acquired at the 2019 deadline, and he would be a mainstay in the back of the Twins bullpen for two years, as he was brought back for 2020 before having his option declined. Vallimont was waived in 2022 and is currently in Baltimore’s system. Diaz had some promise but failed to hit enough as a first baseman to stick in Miami

2. 8/2/22: Minnesota acquires Michael Fulmer (24.1 IP, 107 ERA+, 0.5 bWAR) from Detroit for Sawyer Gipson-Long* (has not reached Detroit), +0.5 bWAR for Minnesota.
Fulmer was a quality setup man down the stretch in 2022, though the Twins did not resign him in the offseason. He’s struggled pitching for the Cubs since then. Gipson-Long is starting games at AA in Detroit’s system, so there’s time for this trade to swing back into Detroit’s favor, but it was a solid enough trade for now.

3. 7/27/17: Minnesota acquires Gabriel Moya (42.2 IP, 94 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR) from Arizona for John Ryan Murphy (299 PA, 62 OPS+), -0.2 bWAR), +0.4 bWAR for Minnesota
John Ryan Murphy was most infamous in Minnesota for being the return in the trade that sent Aaron Hicks to New York. Moya was a decent reliever for a couple of years but was designated for assignment in 2019.

4. 8/2/22: Minnesota acquires Sandy León (65 IP, 65 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR) from Cleveland for Ian Hamilton (did not reach Cleveland), -0.3 bWAR for Minnesota.
A simple veteran-for-veteran swap sent journeyman catcher León to Minnesota as catcher depth and Hamilton to Cleveland as reliever depth. León didn’t hit a lick, but the pitching staff appreciated him, and Hamilton never got called up prior to his release in 2022.

5. 7/24/17: Minnesota acquires Jaime Garcia (6.2 IP, 115 ERA+, 0.1 bWAR), Anthony Recker (did not reach Minnesota) from Atlanta for Huascar Ynoa* (122.1 IP, 85 ERA+, 1.1 bWAR), -1.0 bWAR for Minnesota
In an effort to “go for it,” the Twins acquired the aging starter to fortify the rotation, sending over the 19-year-old prospect. He made one start. Ynoa had a solid 17-start stretch for Atlanta in 2021 but has not had a significant effect otherwise and is currently recovering from Tommy John. It’s hard to separate this trade from the one that sent Garcia away a week later, but the first trade wasn’t bad in itself.

6. 8/2/22: Minnesota acquires Jorge López* (49.2 IP, 87 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR) from Baltimore for Juan Rojas* (has not reached Baltimore), Cade Povich* (has not reached Baltimore), Juan Nuñez* (has not reached Baltimore), Yennier Cano* (41.2 IP, 150 ERA+, 2.0 bWAR), -2.2 bWAR for Minnesota.
The Twins swung a deal for what was arguably the best reliever traded at the 2022 deadline in López, along with his 2.5 years of team control. However, he was rocky down the stretch in 2022, and after a hot start to 2023, the wheels have come off. Povich, Rojas, and Nuñez are all in the minors, but Cano has emerged as arguably the best reliever in baseball thus far in 2023 for the Orioles

7. 7/31/19: Minnesota acquires Sam Dyson (11.1 IP, 65 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR) from San Francisco for Prelander Berroa (did not reach San Francisco), Jaylin Davis (68 PA, 31 OPS+, -0.7 bWAR), Kai-Wei Teng* (has not reached San Francisco), +0.4 bWAR for Minnesota.
This trade was a mess for all involved, as Dyson pitched a poor 11 innings, had a season-ending injury, and was exposed as a domestic abuser shortly thereafter. Berroa has not reached the majors and was traded to Seattle in 2022, and Teng is still in San Francisco’s system as a 24-year-old at AA. Davis played poorly in limited action over three years and is now in his third minor league system since the trade.

8. 8/2/22: Minnesota acquires Tyler Mahle* (42 IP, 116 ERA+, 0.5 bWAR) from Cincinnati for Spencer Steer* (414 PA, 106 OPS+, 1.3 bWAR), Christian Encarnacion-Strand* (has not reached Cincinnati), Steven Hajjar (did not reach Cincinnati), -0.8 bWAR for Minnesota.
Mahle was one of the top available starting pitchers and was brought in to bring stability to a rotation. However, his preexisting injuries in 2022 and eventual Tommy John (not necessarily related to his 2022 injuries) limited him to 42 moderately-effective innings as a Twin. Steer was blocked from reaching MLB at the time, and is beginning to stabilize in his second season. Encarnacion-Strand is one of the biggest power hitters in the minor leagues, at AAA currently and soon to debut, and Hajjar has been traded as player to be named later in a trade for Will Benson

Do you agree with this order? How do you feel about the team’s performance buying at the deadline? Do you hope that the team buys again this year?

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[Paul Walerius]

I don't think CES will reach Baltimore as he was traded to Cincinnati 

[Greggory Masterson]

34 minutes ago, Paul Walerius said:

I don't think CES will reach Baltimore as he was traded to Cincinnati 

Good catch, thank you. It’s also why Steve Hajjar never reached Baltimore, I’d say. 

[jkcarew]

Sell! Sell! Sell!

[DJL44]

The Lopez trade might be the worst. At least Mahle threw the ball decent in his few healthy starts. Lopez has been terrible.

Do NOT give up anything valuable for a relief pitcher.

Trade #7 was a nothing-for-nothing deal that matters about as much as picking up a DFA pitcher.

[Greggory Masterson]

35 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

Trade #7 was a nothing-for-nothing deal that matters about as much as picking up a DFA pitcher.

The Dyson trade was probably the hardest to grade. Neither team got anything, but Dyson was a borderline all star reliever and the prospects had value at the time. There was an opportunity cost there, because those prospects could have been traded for a different high-leverage arm. The Dyson trade stopped them from getting someone else. 

[JD-TWINS]

$$ & some A ball prospect for Chapman or Hand. Need backend depth & experience.

August 1 Pen:

Headrick - Moran - Thielbar

Duran

Pagan - Jax - Balazovic - Stewart

If Thielbar is healthy by mid-July, great. If not, we need another guy with experience.

[High heat]

We’ll have to see where we are at in another month health wise standing wise and production wise.

 

Right now as we look and stand I wouldn’t buy a thing and would likely offer a few pieces if teams are looking to take.

 

Maybe in another month you can see what’s in the middle relief availability and spend a low values prospect but a floundering team around .500 doesn’t warrant any series spending.

[DocBauer]

Somewhat related, Sports Illustrated...I believe it was...whatever you think of them...had an article concerning the top 10 trade deadline deals over X number of years. I forget the exact parameters at the moment. I want to say 2017 until now? But the Twins were 2 of the 10 in acquiring both Duran and Ryan. Just some food for thought.

The Romo trade was a good one.

The Mahle trade made sense at the time. While I think we, and the Twins, would "take it back" now, there was no way to predict Mahle needing TJ surgery as a tired arm issue...which seemed OK to begin this season...shouldn't be related. The jury is still out on Steer and CES. Would I like both back? ABSOLUTELY. Probably to trade again as I'm still not certain how they fit in with Lee, Lewis, Correa, Kirilloff and Miranda (if he truly gets right again). But on value, we lose that trade almost no matter what.

I'm reserving my opinion on the Jorge Lopez trade at this point. I hated losing Povich in that one. A lot! And we might lose this one too. But Lopez has been dealing with extended family and immediate family issues. If his mental health break can help him get grounded again, this deal might still turn out as at least a wash. He's got some tremendous arm talent, so again, I'm holding out on an opinion for now, and I think we all should. I understand Cano has been a revelation for Baltimore. And good for him to make it! But did anyone see his control suddenly coming around at 29yo to be a bullpen force? If Lopez comes back strong, maybe even a re-sign beyond '24, we might win this one, or at least call it a draw based on how Povich turns out, and if Cano continues. Still, probably end up losing this deal. But again, I'm waiting to see before calling this one.

The others were all washes or a slight Twins win, such as adding Fulmer.

I do think the additions of Ryan and Duran should be considered here. But we end up losing the Pressly deal unless Celestino turns out in some manner. 

For this upcoming deadline, I can't even imagine adding a rotation arm. And I have to question the addition of a position player...or the cost to acquire...that would make a difference, unless it's short term, that would fit anywhere long term other than a corner OF spot. Especially considering the biggest offensive issue just might be replacing older veterans for prospects being blocked. Goldschmidt at 1B with Kirilloff mostly in the OF might make sense for a run. But at what cost?

Despite still not being as consistent as I want, Moran has nasty stuff and been much better now after a slow start. Headrick might fill a 2nd half pen roll at some point as well. The key is getting a healthy Thielbar back sometime in July, or early August. That makes the pen just fine from the LH side.

Duran, Jax, and Stewart are a great start on the RH side. Is there a chance a healthy Lopez, or Alcala, or a young Balazovic or Ortega steps forward over the next few weeks? Maybe. But that's a pretty big maybe. I'd love to see one more, quality veteran added to this pen to make it pretty damn good. Especially if the offense can find any sort of continuity as that is CLEARLY what's held this team back from being a good 10 games or more up and running away with the ALC.

There's still quite a bit of talent and depth of such in the system, a handful of really good ones at the upper two levels, but most at A ball. And I feel we've traded enough in recent history that I don't really want to move any more unless it can make a real difference. So again, can the offense really be improved by an inexpensive addition vs figuring out what's on hand? But I'd be fine with a quality rental for the pen that we might even re-sign for 2024.

[Greggory Masterson]

12 minutes ago, DocBauer said:

I do think the additions of Ryan and Duran should be considered here. But we end up losing the Pressly deal unless Celestino turns out in some manner. 

Hold onto that thought. I’m working on finishing up a similar article going over the deadline buys (11 of them, if I recall), and there have definitely been more wins in those; even trades like the Dozier trade could be considered a win.

[Karbo]

I don't see the Twins going anywhere this season. If they are going to get involved in the trade deadline maybe they should be sellers with an eye towards the future. Of course, that would depend on who to sell or if anyone will buy!

[Doctor Wu]

Every year I'm eager for the Twins will make a trade and go "all in" to both make the playoffs and advance in the playoffs. But this year I don't feel the urge. Mainly, because I think we have the pieces to compete, if only they were all healthy and perform as expected. And also, I really don't want to give up any more prospects (good, great, or even mediocre) for players that may not be with us another year down the road. Hey, if it's the end of July and it looks like we can't even win the Central, then go ahead and sell off any disposable assets that we have, but otherwise, I'm content to go forward with what we have, warts and all. 

[TwinsDr2021]

I would see what the Cards are looking for a return for Jordan Hicks. he is UFA next year. I have always been a fan of going after Bedard, but I don't see the Twins having or willing to trade what it would take to get him. Unless the Pirates would settle for Larnach/Wallner and Salas. That I would do,

[saviking]

How bout we just keep bringing up players we developed and trade any veterans for young minor league players to stock our farm system. Not seeing any benefits from trading for veterans ... Just kidding, but maybe not ...

[Blyleven2011]

If this is strictly about deadline acquisitions that could impact the twins immediately  ...

I would agree  in the order from best to worse but put the mahle and Dyson trades a tie  ....

The FO office has not made many good deadline deals to acquire immediate help for the club , please stay away from any player that may have injury concerns  ...

As seller's they have faired better in trading veterans for acquired prospects and some have already contributing  to the MLB roster  ...

Ryan , smeltzer , Duran ,  celestino , alcala  is all I can think of at the moment  ...

Yes they have acquired some good talent during the off seasons  trades  , ( odorizze was the best and cheapest acquisition ), gray , P. Lopez,  maeda just to name a few and costs were alittle higher ... 

Maybe the twins can be seller's  and buyers at the deadline  , I can't see them hanging on to some veterans  and with a few tweaks could possibly strengthen the club ...

And that's all I have to say about that , at this time anyways  ...

[RpR]

2 hours ago, saviking said:

How bout we just keep bringing up players we developed and trade any veterans for young minor league players to stock our farm system. Not seeing any benefits from trading for veterans ... Just kidding, but maybe not ...

How many sub-fivehundred years do you want to suffer through?

[Greggory Masterson]

54 minutes ago, Blyleven2011 said:

Yes they have acquired some good talent during the off seasons  trades  , ( odorizze was the best and cheapest acquisition ), gray , P. Lopez,  maeda just to name a few and costs were alittle higher ... 

I gathered information on this as well, but I probably won’t publish it until the off-season, when it’s more relevant. They’ve done pretty well with off-season trades and have been more successful in bringing in MLB talent that way. 

[John Belinski]

Hope the Twins do not trade Wallner. Just do not understand why he isn't with the Twins. He was on base 8 times in a row before being sent down. Maybe Rocco doesn't like him, but he can hit and Twins need hitters.

[Danchat]

I wouldn't write off Prelander Berroa yet - he has had solid numbers and might make it as a MLB reliever, though he will need to learn to stop giving out walks. The Giants traded him to Seattle and he was protected before the Rule 5 draft, so he is likely to crack the majors at some point.

[Mike Sixel]

Cano hasn't been as good lately, we'll see how that goes....

they bought last year, and I was good with that decision. it didn't work. 

I don't think they should buy this year.

[Minny505]

On 6/25/2023 at 10:25 AM, DJL44 said:

The Lopez trade might be the worst. 

Do NOT give up anything valuable for a relief pitcher.

The Twins did NOT give up anything of value at the time.

Povich is largely viewed as a future fungible RP by most prospect evaluators.

I have never heard a propect evaluator mention Rojas or Nunez, so I assume they are minor league depth.

Cano was given plenty of chances and was terrible. Actually, terrible doesn't properly quantify his value. He was a detriment to the team and a reason for them losing so many games. If 6 months ago a team had the choice of Jorge Lopez or Yannier Cano as the 8th man in the bullpen, 30 out of 30 MLB GM's opt for Lopez. (Even the Orioles, who required more than 6 years of Cano to part with 2.5 years of Lopez)

[DJL44]

14 hours ago, Minny505 said:

The Twins did NOT give up anything of value at the time.

Povich is largely viewed as a future fungible RP by most prospect evaluators.

I have never heard a propect evaluator mention Rojas or Nunez, so I assume they are minor league depth.

Cano was given plenty of chances and was terrible. Actually, terrible doesn't properly quantify his value. He was a detriment to the team and a reason for them losing so many games. If 6 months ago a team had the choice of Jorge Lopez or Yannier Cano as the 8th man in the bullpen, 30 out of 30 MLB GM's opt for Lopez. (Even the Orioles, who required more than 6 years of Cano to part with 2.5 years of Lopez)

Povich still looks pretty good. He's #11 on the Orioles prospect list. I agree that getting rid of Cano was more about freeing up the roster spot than it was giving the Orioles the trade headliner.