Get In. We’re Going Shopping

Regarding things like making trades, no one wins every time, not even the Dodgers and Rays (see Yordan Álvarez and Joe Ryan, respectively). However, a good team wins their trades more often than they lose them. Deadline buys are especially complicated because a team almost always knowingly trades away valuable long-term pieces for short-term rewards.

Deadline trades have been hot on Twins fans’ minds for the last month after Tyler Mahle got shut down for the season to get Tommy John surgery and Jorge López’s struggles reached a head. I, your humble narrator, have combed through every trade that the Twins have made since October 2016 (when Falvey and Levine were brought on) that involved at least one MLB player and was not for cash considerations or players to be named later. 

You, my only friends, can make your own judgment. Below, I’ve listed every trade that could be considered a buy near the deadline. These trades occurred in 2017, 2019, and 2022, as the team was in contention in each of those three years. 

Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. Performance isn’t considered if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the trade being discussed. Obviously, this analysis doesn’t include future performance, either. This information was gathered as a snapshot on June 23, 2023. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the full picture isn’t available.

I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. 

For an example of why comparing statistics isn’t ideal, let’s skip to the 2019 Sam Dyson trade. Statistically, the Twins won the trade. Dyson was worth -0.3 bWAR, but the players traded for him have amounted to -0.7 bWAR. No one truly won that trade, value-wise. Perhaps more importantly, the Twins paid an opportunity cost to acquire him, as he was their main addition that deadline. Trading for him stopped the team from trading a similar package for a different reliever. However, the stats do provide some background.

Without further ado, here’s my subjective order, from best to worst.

1. 7/27/19: Minnesota acquires Sergio Romo (42.2 IP, 125 ERA+, 0.4 bWAR), Chris Vallimont (did not reach Minnesota) from Miami for Lewin Diaz (343 PA, 55 OPS+, 0.1 bWAR), +0.3 bWAR for Minnesota.
Romo was one of two relievers acquired at the 2019 deadline, and he would be a mainstay in the back of the Twins bullpen for two years, as he was brought back for 2020 before having his option declined. Vallimont was waived in 2022 and is currently in Baltimore’s system. Diaz had some promise but failed to hit enough as a first baseman to stick in Miami

2. 8/2/22: Minnesota acquires Michael Fulmer (24.1 IP, 107 ERA+, 0.5 bWAR) from Detroit for Sawyer Gipson-Long* (has not reached Detroit), +0.5 bWAR for Minnesota.
Fulmer was a quality setup man down the stretch in 2022, though the Twins did not resign him in the offseason. He’s struggled pitching for the Cubs since then. Gipson-Long is starting games at AA in Detroit’s system, so there’s time for this trade to swing back into Detroit’s favor, but it was a solid enough trade for now.

3. 7/27/17: Minnesota acquires Gabriel Moya (42.2 IP, 94 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR) from Arizona for John Ryan Murphy (299 PA, 62 OPS+), -0.2 bWAR), +0.4 bWAR for Minnesota
John Ryan Murphy was most infamous in Minnesota for being the return in the trade that sent Aaron Hicks to New York. Moya was a decent reliever for a couple of years but was designated for assignment in 2019.

4. 8/2/22: Minnesota acquires Sandy León (65 IP, 65 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR) from Cleveland for Ian Hamilton (did not reach Cleveland), -0.3 bWAR for Minnesota.
A simple veteran-for-veteran swap sent journeyman catcher León to Minnesota as catcher depth and Hamilton to Cleveland as reliever depth. León didn’t hit a lick, but the pitching staff appreciated him, and Hamilton never got called up prior to his release in 2022.

5. 7/24/17: Minnesota acquires Jaime Garcia (6.2 IP, 115 ERA+, 0.1 bWAR), Anthony Recker (did not reach Minnesota) from Atlanta for Huascar Ynoa* (122.1 IP, 85 ERA+, 1.1 bWAR), -1.0 bWAR for Minnesota
In an effort to “go for it,” the Twins acquired the aging starter to fortify the rotation, sending over the 19-year-old prospect. He made one start. Ynoa had a solid 17-start stretch for Atlanta in 2021 but has not had a significant effect otherwise and is currently recovering from Tommy John. It’s hard to separate this trade from the one that sent Garcia away a week later, but the first trade wasn’t bad in itself.

6. 8/2/22: Minnesota acquires Jorge López* (49.2 IP, 87 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR) from Baltimore for Juan Rojas* (has not reached Baltimore), Cade Povich* (has not reached Baltimore), Juan Nuñez* (has not reached Baltimore), Yennier Cano* (41.2 IP, 150 ERA+, 2.0 bWAR), -2.2 bWAR for Minnesota.
The Twins swung a deal for what was arguably the best reliever traded at the 2022 deadline in López, along with his 2.5 years of team control. However, he was rocky down the stretch in 2022, and after a hot start to 2023, the wheels have come off. Povich, Rojas, and Nuñez are all in the minors, but Cano has emerged as arguably the best reliever in baseball thus far in 2023 for the Orioles

7. 7/31/19: Minnesota acquires Sam Dyson (11.1 IP, 65 ERA+, -0.3 bWAR) from San Francisco for Prelander Berroa (did not reach San Francisco), Jaylin Davis (68 PA, 31 OPS+, -0.7 bWAR), Kai-Wei Teng* (has not reached San Francisco), +0.4 bWAR for Minnesota.
This trade was a mess for all involved, as Dyson pitched a poor 11 innings, had a season-ending injury, and was exposed as a domestic abuser shortly thereafter. Berroa has not reached the majors and was traded to Seattle in 2022, and Teng is still in San Francisco’s system as a 24-year-old at AA. Davis played poorly in limited action over three years and is now in his third minor league system since the trade.

8. 8/2/22: Minnesota acquires Tyler Mahle* (42 IP, 116 ERA+, 0.5 bWAR) from Cincinnati for Spencer Steer* (414 PA, 106 OPS+, 1.3 bWAR), Christian Encarnacion-Strand* (has not reached Cincinnati), Steven Hajjar (did not reach Cincinnati), -0.8 bWAR for Minnesota.
Mahle was one of the top available starting pitchers and was brought in to bring stability to a rotation. However, his preexisting injuries in 2022 and eventual Tommy John (not necessarily related to his 2022 injuries) limited him to 42 moderately-effective innings as a Twin. Steer was blocked from reaching MLB at the time, and is beginning to stabilize in his second season. Encarnacion-Strand is one of the biggest power hitters in the minor leagues, at AAA currently and soon to debut, and Hajjar has been traded as player to be named later in a trade for Will Benson

Do you agree with this order? How do you feel about the team’s performance buying at the deadline? Do you hope that the team buys again this year?