Spencer Steer and Christian Encarnacion-Strand Could Haunt the Twins For a Long Time

[Matthew Taylor]

So far this article has aged well pretty lol.

Spencer Steer hit a two-run home run tonight and CES just mashed a grand slam.

Edited June 1, 2023 by Matthew Taylor

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

8 minutes ago, Matthew Taylor said:

So far this article has aged well pretty lol.

Spencer Steer hit a two-run home run tonight and CES just mashed a grand slam.

Luis Arraez grounded into a double play in a high leverage spot, and Pablo Lopez didn’t even get into the game! 

And Tommy Herr and Tom Brunansky are both retired! 

[Jocko87]

1 hour ago, Riverbrian said:

 

This allows me to dredge up one of my favorite points. 

The margins are razor thin. The difference between Miranda and Steer is probably miniscule. Front offices have to to walk up to the window and place their bets on near coin flips. They are not choosing between Ronald Acuna and Ronald McDonald where the difference is obvious. These are young players that are capable of being major league players and also capable of working in a car wash in two years.  

Any illusion that any front office for any of the 30 teams have these razor thin decisions perfected down to a science is incredibly impossible. Every front office makes mistakes on these coin flips and they make them often. 

Does anyone think the Rays trade Joe Ryan for a DH rental if the Rays knew what Joe Ryan would be doing in 2022 and 2023. I think its safe to assume that they don't make that trade, they probably offer Brandon McKay instead who was rated higher in the system at the time of the trade. 

If the Twins knew what Ryan was going to become when trading Cruz to the Rays do you think they needed Strotman added to the deal? They would have agreed to Ryan and called the commissioner before they got off the phone with the Rays.  

Front offices know that they are going to make mistakes. How often do they make mistakes. Often... they are easy to find for all 30 teams. Just pull up any roster at random and look at who is doing what and ask yourself... was that the plan?  

Angels - I don't believe the plan was to sign David Fletcher to a 5 year deal only to send him to Salt Lake City so they could call up a SS who was drafted last year. 

Astros - Abreu? 

A's - They didn't start the season with Rooker penciled into a starting position? They didn't plan for what he did? They took a flyer to fill out the worst roster in baseball. 

Jays - Do the they trade for Berrios if they had the chance to do it over? Are the Twins still insisting on Martin if they still do? 

Braves - Michael Harris was the greatest thing on earth last year. I have to believe that his current .526 OPS was not the plan. 

Brewers - They did not pursue a 2B in the off-season. Do they still just hand the job to Turang or did they make a mistake? 

Cardinals... Do you think they sign Wilson Contreres to that contract knowing his OPS would be .663 in June and that he would have to be removed from the catcher position for a spell.   

Cubs... Isn't it possible that they break camp with Morel if they knew what he was going to do. Is it possible that Mancini or Hosmer isn't necessary if they break camp with Morel. 

I'm going alphabetically and I'll stop now but there are ton of mistakes being made in the baseball world far away from 1 Twins Way.

The Margins are thin... these decisions are hard. Mistakes are inevitable... it's what you do after is what is important. 

Amen! As a fan base we probably need to stay tuned to the rest of the league a bit more for context as we apply judgement to our beloved. Texting with my Astros fan buddy today, did you know they had a very strong hashtag last year #LOBstros As in left on base Astros.  I’d hate to see what they are like when they aren’t winning a World Series.

Regarding our front office decisions here, I care much more about the process and improving the process than whatever result of an individual trade. Call me crazy but having a new trainer may have as much to do with acquiring pitchers who were more broken than they thought as the late injury rash. 

I for one, will celebrate the success of our hitting prospects when we trade them away. If we are selling a better product, we will have better customers willing to pay a higher price.  I learned that part from Breaking Bad. 

[Doctor Wu]

Well yeah, we lost that trade. Sigh. But looking back, I'd do it again (of course, doing it with the hope that Mahle would be healthy). We wanted an above average starting pitcher, and we didn't have to give up any of our top tier prospects to get him. It looked like a good win-win trade at the time. I liked it. But now ... not much more to add. This one stings. I wish Steer and CES all the best and hope they have long careers. Don't  know what will happen to Mahle at this point, but it's doubtful we'll see him in a Twins uniform again. But hey, that's baseball. Funny game. 

[Riverbrian]

8 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

Amen! As a fan base we probably need to stay tuned to the rest of the league a bit more for context as we apply judgement to our beloved. Texting with my Astros fan buddy today, did you know they had a very strong hashtag last year #LOBstros As in left on base Astros.  I’d hate to see what they are like when they aren’t winning a World Series.

Regarding our front office decisions here, I care much more about the process and improving the process than whatever result of an individual trade. Call me crazy but having a new trainer may have as much to do with acquiring pitchers who were more broken than they thought as the late injury rash. 

I for one, will celebrate the success of our hitting prospects when we trade them away. If we are selling a better product, we will have better customers willing to pay a higher price.  I learned that part from Breaking Bad. 

I loved that show... I've learned a lot watching Breaking Bad. 

Apparently with fulminated mercury.

If you smash it on the floor. Apparently the contact with the floor causes an explosion strong enough to blow up the entire third floor but not kill the 4 people who occupy the blown up third floor. After blowing up a building in downtown Albuquerque, apparently, you can just get in your car and drive away.

After watching Breaking Bad and what happens with fulminated mercury... I have much keener insight into what happens with a pitch thrown by Emilio Pagan.  

 

[Major League Ready]

12 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

 

Do the Tampa Bay Rays have a message board lamenting that dang Joe Ryan trade?  Serious question, if not, room for expansion!

 

The difference was that the rays had a legit contender.  The Twins were a playoff team not based on the merit of their team but the futility of the others in the division.  The Twins should have never been spending that much prospect capital for 1/2 a season when they really were not contenders and 1 additional season.  I have no problem with them trading Steer and CES given their limitations but not for a short-term SP, especially one that was not the type of dominant SP needed in the playoffs.

[MABB1959]

16 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

Both of their defensive limitations lessen the likelihood that they're truly haunting losses. But Steer's current batting line sure would look nice in the Twins lineup right now. I wouldn't replace Lewis or Kirilloff with him, though.

With the right coaching I think they can improve their defensive weaknesses but doubt that would have happened here.  That trade really hurts!

[MABB1959]

46 minutes ago, Doctor Wu said:

I wish Steer and CES all the best and hope they have long careers. Don't  know what will happen to Mahle at this point, but it's doubtful we'll see him in a Twins uniform again.

I bet they are both thrilled to get a chance on a contending team or at least not the Twins who IMO will never spend what is needed and I question their ability to see a good player.  

[Trov]

You can never look at each trade in a vacuum of these guys for that guy(s), and who won trade.  You have to pay attention to other moves made or not made, who else was in system and so on.  Looking at Steer, he has shown good offense, something we knew he had, but also shown poor defense.  bWAR has him negative at defense playing 3rd, 1st, and DH this year.  He maybe would have played some 2nd if we kept him.  Would his offensive numbers slotting in at 2nd for who we have put out may have been nice, but who knows what defense he would have brought.  Right now, he would not be in our starting lineup though, because Buck has DH locked up, AK or Gallo have 1b locked up, Steer could get games against lefties some times, and Lewis will have 3rd mostly locked down.  So where does Steer play for us, or who would you want to get moved out for Steer? 

CES may very well mash, but again, he plays basically no defense.  He is playing mostly 1b for Reds AAA team, and that is not great.  He is all offense, and his k-rate is a little scary.  He may turn out to be one of those AAAA players that when facing MLB level pitching his K-rate becomes a big concern, we will see.  Either way, unless he is a superstar hitter, he would again most likely slot behind guys we have already.  Keeping in mind for both Steer and CES, Lee is in the wings too.  

Will the trade haunt?  No, it will not in my opinion.  The only thing you can really be upset about is that we did not get much in return, and maybe could have flipped them for something during off-season.  However, I am not seeing either being that much better than who we have that I would be like darn what could have been.  Maybe CES becomes a hitting superstar, but I just have a feeling he will struggle at MLB level, not many guys that strike out at a rate of about 33% at minor league level improve at MLB level. If he cannot keep up his very high BABIP at MLB level when he gets called up, he will struggle badly and since he offers no defense he will have less value.  

[saviking]

Luck of the Draw ..

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

With the right coaching I think they can improve their defensive weaknesses but doubt that would have happened here.  That trade really hurts!

What do you base this on? What have you seen in their games to make you think there's better defense in there? Or is this just a shot at the Twins organization based on nothing real?

It's turned out to be a bad trade, yes. It doesn't "really hurt" yet, but it could in the future. There's every bit the chance that Steer is pushed out of that IF as well by the elite prospects they have coming up. We'll see. Only time will tell who turns out to be the best between Steer, CES, Miranda, Lee, Lewis, and Kirilloff. I'll take my chances with Lee, Lewis, and Kirilloff.

[Riverbrian]

1 hour ago, Major League Ready said:

The difference was that the rays had a legit contender.  The Twins were a playoff team not based on the merit of their team but the futility of the others in the division.  The Twins should have never been spending that much prospect capital for 1/2 a season when they really were not contenders and 1 additional season.  I have no problem with them trading Steer and CES given their limitations but not for a short-term SP, especially one that was not the type of dominant SP needed in the playoffs.

I'll be honest... If my front office ever looked at a team in contention and ignored it because they didn't believe it. 

I'd want them gone.   

[Major League Ready]

1 minute ago, Riverbrian said:

I'll be honest... If my front office ever looked at a team in contention and ignored it because they didn't believe it. 

I'd want them gone.   

Baltimore had the same record last year.  They were sellers instead of buyers and are better for it now.   Looking at last years team as a contender required fanaticism not objective management.  Nobody outside of Minnesota fans gave them any chance and the results speak for themselves.  They had a modest chance at contending when the season started but they had none after being riddled with injuries.  

Being in first place is a poor measuring stick for ability to contend as proven again by this year's team.   Would you spend more capital at this deadline if they continue to be this anemic offensively?   They are after all in first place.

[chpettit19]

2 hours ago, Major League Ready said:

The difference was that the rays had a legit contender.  The Twins were a playoff team not based on the merit of their team but the futility of the others in the division.  The Twins should have never been spending that much prospect capital for 1/2 a season when they really were not contenders and 1 additional season.  I have no problem with them trading Steer and CES given their limitations but not for a short-term SP, especially one that was not the type of dominant SP needed in the playoffs.

You're not getting a better pitcher with more control for Steer and CES.

[chpettit19]

1 hour ago, MABB1959 said:

I bet they are both thrilled to get a chance on a contending team or at least not the Twins who IMO will never spend what is needed and I question their ability to see a good player.  

Yeah, the Reds are really the envy of the league. Everyone tripping over themselves to get to Cincinnati to play with that juggernaut of a franchise.

[Major League Ready]

9 minutes ago, chpettit19 said:

You're not getting a better pitcher with more control for Steer and CES.

I agree.  My thought was that Mahle was unlikely to be a difference maker in the playoffs.  He really was not even going to have a significant influence on making the playoffs.  Varland and Ober have both pitched as well as we could have hope for from Mahle.  So, what was the point.  I have no problem with them trading away Steer and CES.  My point was that Mahle was not what we needed.  Don't get me wrong.  A solid SP is always a plus but he did not move the needle much.  It did not have to be a pitcher.  I could have been a RP or a catcher or someone that could play CF in a similar role to MAT.

[chpettit19]

7 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

I agree.  My thought was that Mahle was unlikely to be a difference maker in the playoffs.  He really was not even going to have a significant influence on making the playoffs.  Varland and Ober have both pitched as well as we could have hope for from Mahle.  So, what was the point.  I have no problem with them trading away Steer and CES.  My point was that Mahle was not what we needed.  Don't get me wrong.  A solid SP is always a plus but he did not move the needle much.  It did not have to be a pitcher.  I could have been a RP or a catcher or someone that could play CF in a similar role to MAT.

That's fair. I'm just saying you weren't getting any kind of massive difference maker for Steer and CES. Mahle was very clearly the wrong choice even if I thought it was a solid, if unspectacular, trade at the time.

[Cris E]

12 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Baltimore had the same record last year.  They were sellers instead of buyers and are better for it now.   Looking at last years team as a contender required fanaticism not objective management.  Nobody outside of Minnesota fans gave them any chance and the results speak for themselves.  They had a modest chance at contending when the season started but they had none after being riddled with injuries.  

Being in first place is a poor measuring stick for ability to contend as proven again by this year's team.   Would you spend more capital at this deadline if they continue to be this anemic offensively?   They are after all in first place.

I somewhat agree with your point that standing pat is defensible sometimes, but 2022 Baltimore is a poor comparison to 2022 Minnesota. No one expected BAL to be anywhere near first place and they had no depth to advance in the playoffs, but MIN had a core of quality vets on hand that the kids were supporting well. There was no certainty that all the injured guys would be gone through the end of the year, or that Grey, Ryan, Ober and a healthy Mahle that pitched to his road record wouldn't have been enough to get into the playoffs. As mentioned above, there's a lot of guesswork in these projections and trades, particularly when injuries are involved. (You need to live with some acceptance of injury risk with all pitchers. Example: Sonny Grey has a very long injury history yet he's been pretty good here when kept on a short innings leash.) 

Anyway, over-simplifying cases does no one any favors. The future is hard, so embrace the ambiguity, question anyone who is too certain, forgive mis-reads, enjoy the game.

[Blyleven2011]

18 hours ago, roger said:

Don’t like using the word “haunting.”  To haunt the Twins they would need to have been traded to a team we play a lot, say the Sox or Guardians, and continually get big hits leading to losses.  At least that’s how I look at it.

Don’t get me wrong, we gave up a ton and will get little in return.  But the trade made sense the day it was made.  The good news is that several above have pointed out that both hitters would be blocked with the Twins.  Suppose you could counter that by saying they would get more if traded today.  Perhaps much more?

Everyone was happy the day of the mahle trade but Everyone but the FO had concerns of his history of injury  ...

As I stated when arreaz ( major leaguer ) got traded that he would get the game winning hit in the bottom of the ninth in the 7th game of a Miami  / Minnesota  world series ...

Now that would haunt the fan base ...

We went after pitching and gave up alot but that is exactly how the Yankees do it ...

[Riverbrian]

25 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Being in first place is a poor measuring stick for ability to contend as proven again by this year's team.   Would you spend more capital at this deadline if they continue to be this anemic offensively?   They are after all in first place.

Yes I would... I would acquire hitting. 

On July 31... Being in first place is a great measuring stick for being in position to make the playoffs. 😎

 

[joefish]

Never saw them play as a Twin. 

I won't miss them

 They will haunt me not

I wish them the best.

[purplesoldier4u]

On 5/31/2023 at 2:43 PM, weitz41 said:

Man, there's a lot to pick apart here. Don't get me wrong because of the injuries to Mahle its low hanging fruit to say the Twins FO screwed up.  I get it..but hindsight is 20/20 and you can probably say that about maybe 60% or more of all deadline trades. Ask the White Sox about the Tatis trade...

There's to many examples' similar to the Mahle trade to just pour gas on it for the sake of I want a bigger fire.

Juan Nunez from the Jorge Lopez trade could end up as a Cy Young winner as well.

To get to the nitty gritty of it IMO. Steer had at minimum Miranda and likely Lewis in line before him. CES would have Kirilloff, at least Gallo and probably Salano ahead of him. So, they gave up the third option for 2 positions for a decent chance at maybe their third best starter. I doubt many (if any) teams would pass on that. Ghosts of Christmas past or not.

See: Chase Petty

[purplesoldier4u]

18 hours ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

Luis Arraez grounded into a double play in a high leverage spot, and Pablo Lopez didn’t even get into the game! 

And Tommy Herr and Tom Brunansky are both retired! 

Sadly, you have to give up something to get something. No more of those Nick Punto and a middling prospect for X superstar trades, I guess.

[purplesoldier4u]

Those prospect losses wouldn't hurt so much if we had received value in the Berrios trade.

[weitz41]

50 minutes ago, purplesoldier4u said:

See: Chase Petty

 

See Sonny Gray... I mean jeez name another starting pitcher trade that has worked out better for any team in the last two seasons.

 

The Twins didn't draft Petty expecting he would be terrible. You have to give up something in return.